The minutes of the Fed's FOMC meeting on June 11-12 showed that policymakers agreed on price stability, but there was no consensus among Fed officials on how many months of good inflation data would be needed to start cutting interest rates. Some officials believed in being patient before taking action, and some officials said that rate hikes were still under discussion.
Bitcoin lost the $62,000 support level in the early hours of Wednesday morning, hitting a low of $59,515 before bullish forces pushed it back above $60,000. However, bears continued to exert downward pressure, and this morning, Bitcoin hit the $58,000 level again, down nearly 5% in 24 hours.
As Bitcoin fell below $60,000, the downward trend of altcoins intensified, with a number of altcoins hitting new lows, one after another, lower than the last.
It was said that the fifth was poor, the sixth was desperate, and the seventh was a turnaround. Now it has become the fifth is poor, the sixth is desperate, and the seventh is begging for food.
Federal Reserve officials hinted that they are not in a hurry to cut interest rates. Is there no hope for a rate cut?
Regarding the outlook for monetary policy, the latest minutes said: Participants noted that progress in reducing inflation this year had been slower than expected in December. They emphasized that it would be inappropriate to lower the target range for the federal funds rate unless more information emerged that gave them greater confidence that inflation was moving toward the 2% target on a sustained basis.
The minutes also said that "some participants noted that the target range for the federal funds rate might need to be raised if inflation remained persistently high or increased further," while "some participants said that monetary policy should stand ready to respond to unexpected economic weakness."
As rising inflation has left Fed officials less confident about cutting interest rates, some policymakers at last month's meeting called for close monitoring of signs that the job market may be weakening faster than expected, and combined with recent public comments from Fed officials, the minutes suggested they are unlikely to cut interest rates at their meeting later this month.
Minutes from the Fed’s June meeting indicated the committee was moving toward easing policy but had not yet “got over the hump” to make a decision.
A normal correction or a turn to a bearish market?
As BTC once again retests the lower limit of the range it has been in since late February, momentum seems to be turning to the bears. Many people now believe that Bitcoin could fall to the $40,000 range, but I feel that these concerns are exaggerated and are only exacerbating the normal FUD cycle. You can't call for a bullish return as soon as it rises, and a bearish return as soon as it falls. The previous article "Is Bitcoin 60,000 the bottom? How low can it fall?" used data to clearly show everyone the situation in the market. Unless there is a serious black swan, it is basically impossible for Bitcoin to reach 40,000. Interested friends can go and review it.
Monday’s breakout was delayed by a failure to retest the June downtrend as new support, but nevertheless this remains a trendline worth watching for a shift in trend going forward.
Bitcoin has bottomed out, and BTC is simply retesting the recent downtrend line before continuing higher.
While retail traders are dumping tokens amid FUD-induced weakness, whales are more bullish than ever, with more than 10 whale wallets now accumulating 16.17 million BTC, a new all-time high. We are seeing an increase in the buying power of Tether and USD Coin holders, which will truly open the floodgates for a crypto bull run.
I have told you before that the current market's expectation of the Fed's postponement of interest rate cuts and the possibility of only one interest rate cut this year should have a similar impact on the crypto market as the "Silicon Valley Bank bankruptcy" and "Binance FUD" events. Therefore, BTC is more likely to be in a wide range of 60,000-64,000 USD and 66,000-70,000 USD).
The rally in the past two days only reached 63800, and did not break through the upper pressure level, so it continued to fall back and consolidate. In the past two days, I have been reminding everyone to keep bullets in hand, and the position should not exceed 50% to wait for opportunities. Short-term profit must be sold. Now it can be verified one by one. If you do not show up when the short-term rebound is profitable, you will lose all the profits, and some may even be trapped.
At present, you can appropriately add a layer of position. It is recommended to increase the position to 60%. We will decide whether to increase the position after the Mentougou incident is resolved.
Yesterday's small non-farm data ADP was lower than expected, which is good news; the previous initial claims data and PMI are also good news; gold hit the $2,360 mark, which is good news. However, BTC still fell, and the fundamental reason is still the selling pressure brought by Mentougou, including governments of various countries, and the occasional interest rate cuts.
Pay attention to the release of non-agricultural data at 20:30 tomorrow night. There should be more news on the Mentougou incident next week.
In this round of bull market, the fundamentals of the altcoins have changed too much, but if we put aside the altcoins and look at the overall market, it is actually not very bad. It’s just that most people have altcoins, and this round of disgusting altcoin market has made the bull market go away. Everyone is experiencing such a altcoin market for the first time. Recently, big whales have started to hoard coins on a large scale at this position. This also happened when Bitcoin was around 20,000 in 2020. Then the main stage of the bull market began.
The second half of the bull market is very important. There will be many positive factors in the future. ETH ETF will be launched, funds will enter the market, and it will far exceed the first half. I still believe that the more bloody the current wash is, the more gorgeous the fireworks will be in the future. As long as you don’t buy high-inflation tokens and don’t be afraid to hold the spot, you will be fine.
Later, I will bring you analysis of leading projects in other tracks. If you are interested, you can click to follow. I will also organize some cutting-edge consulting and project reviews from time to time. Welcome all like-minded people in the cryptocurrency circle to explore together.
