This week (7/1-7/7) is a big macro week. The core is the U.S. unemployment rate and non-farm data on Friday. The macro market, which has been silent for many days, has made a comeback, and there are important macro events every weekday.
In terms of encryption, the SEC will most likely respond to the ETH ETF this week. Although the possibility of direct approval is low, good news is likely.
The quarterly delivery has just ended and the IV of all major maturities are very low, which is a good opportunity to build a position.
This week's major events:
7/1 Monday
US ISM Manufacturing PMI for June.
Tuesday, July 2
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, ECB President Lagarde and Brazilian Central Bank President Neto spoke at the ECB’s Central Bank Forum;
The Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes of its June monetary policy meeting.
Wednesday, July 3
US ADP employment numbers for June;
The number of initial jobless claims in the United States this week.
Thursday, July 4
The Federal Reserve releases the minutes of its monetary policy meeting;
The UK holds a general election;
The ECB released the minutes of its June monetary policy meeting;
The U.S. SEC may approve an Ethereum spot ETF as early as today.
Friday, July 5
US unemployment rate for June;
U.S. non-farm payrolls for June.
Crypto Market
The cryptocurrency market has experienced a difficult month. Since the mid-March of this year, BTC and ETH have been fluctuating and falling most of the time, and the crypto market is relatively sluggish. At present, the overall IV is at a low level, and the margin released by the quarterly large delivery will gradually return to the market.
As Bitcoin (BTC) looks to recover from its July losses, new challenges loom, with on-chain data pointing to potential resistance at $65,000.
June’s decline reversed a rise in May, driven largely by miner selling and concerns that ETF inflows represented non-directional arbitrage bets rather than outright bullish bets.
The price drop has taken the price well below the widely tracked cost basis of short-term Bitcoin holders, or wallets that hold Bitcoin for 155 days or less. As of this writing, the total cost basis for short-term holders is $65,000.
In other words, short-term holders are now facing losses or holding losing positions and may try to exit the market at a loss or breakeven, which may increase selling pressure around $65,000.
Last summer, when BTC lost the STH RP (realized price) support level, the price traded sideways for another two months before finally breaking out again.
Long-term wallet holders have a strong incentive to maintain or increase their cryptocurrency reserves because their average cost is less than $20,000. Their average cost is nearly 70% lower than the prevailing market price of BTC.
Furthermore, the 15% pullback in Bitcoin’s price from its all-time high of over $73,500 in March may seem large to traditional market investors, but it is a normal bull market correction for long-term cryptocurrency holders.
During the 2017 cycle, BTC had 10 declines of 20% or more. This is a normal, healthy bull market correction. Bitcoin's price volatility gets rid of weak hands and provides opportunities for strategic capital deployment for those with a longer time frame.
For long-term investors, hold on to the spot goods in your hands. Those with light positions can add some positions at low positions, while those with heavy positions can just lie flat and do nothing. For short-term investors, set a stop-profit and stop-loss order recently. There is not much news this week, and it is possible that the market will go up and down. Do not open contracts and leverage.
Later, I will bring you analysis of leading projects in other tracks. If you are interested, you can click to follow. I will also organize some cutting-edge consulting and project reviews from time to time. Welcome all like-minded people in the cryptocurrency circle to explore together.
