Why do I always believe that the crazy bull market has not come yet? Based on the long-term analysis of BTC and ETH/BTC trends, compared with the previous bull market.
In the comparative trend chart from 2019 to 2022, we can find that:
1. In 2020, BTC started the third wave of the main rise two months after the halving;
2. Bitcoin market share (BTC-D) peaked in December 2020, seven months after the halving, and then began to decline;
3. ETH/BTC also hit bottom in December 2020, and as the king of altcoins, ETH’s trend began to strengthen;
4. In this round of bull market, the trend is faster than that in 2021, so it is speculated that BTC-D is expected to peak in October, six months after the halving, and the range is predicted to be 57%-60%.
5. Ethereum ETF is expected to be launched in July, and the bottoming time of ETH/BTC is expected to be advanced, but if we want to achieve great results, we still have to wait until after October.
Why do altcoins only explode in the middle and late stages of a bull market?
1. The project owners of altcoins have little money. From the entire bear market to the early bull market, they have to pay salaries and expenses every month, so they can only sell coins every month;
2. In the middle and late stages of the bull market, when the big whales have made enough money on BTC, some hot money will come to fight for altcoins, creating a bubble altcoin season, which is both a carnival and a wave of harvest.
I don’t agree with the view that there is no copycat season in this bull market. There are very few products that can be sold by dumping the market. Only by frantically pulling up the market during the copycat season is the best way for each project to sell its products.
How to deal with it?
1. Position allocation: before October 24, 50% BTC, 30% ETH/SOL/BNB, 20% popular altcoins;
2. By the end of October, it is expected that BTC will complete its third wave, with 30% BTC, 40% ETH/SOL/BNB, and 30% popular altcoins;
3. At the end of December, BTC is expected to enter the top range, with 30% USDT arbitrage, 30% ETH/SOL/BNB, and 40% popular altcoins;
4. By the end of March 25, it is expected that the altcoin season will end, with 90% USDT and 10% popular altcoins;
5. Starting from April 25, clear the warehouse and do what you need to do. The above is only the most stable way. If you want to make a big profit, you still need to have a large position in the altcoin. After all, the altcoin has also fallen a lot. But the altcoin season is coming, and we still have to wait for BTC and ETH to break new highs.
According to the daily data as of 8 a.m. this morning, although the BTC inventory on exchanges has decreased slightly, there is still nearly 30,000 BTC of "undigested inventory" compared to the lowest inventory in nearly six years three weeks ago. This means that the BTC transferred to the exchange in the past three weeks has hardly been purchased, which also represents the lack of purchasing power in the current market.
The on-chain data is bleak, and the currency market has no intention to rise. Last night, Powell gave a speech, saying that inflation has made considerable progress, but he was still unwilling to say whether there would be a rate cut in September and when it would start!
Two aspects of yesterday's speech
1. Bao's speech was positive, gold rose, and the US dollar index DXY fell. It should have risen, but BTC fell in the opposite direction.
2. Yesterday, there was not much inflow of ETF funds. In terms of on-chain data, although BTC did not continue to flow into exchanges in large quantities, it is worrying that stablecoins show the trend of flowing out of exchanges. Therefore, although we are optimistic about the rebound in the general direction, we must also prevent the last drop. This is why we remind everyone to pay attention to stop-profit and stop-loss in the short term. If you make some money, you should leave first. If you lose money, try not to hold on to it. There will still be good positions and opportunities later. Take the recent sharp declines, such as $ETHFI, $WLD, $TAO, and $ENA. If you do not stop loss, it will bring endless declines. The more you are trapped, the more reluctant you will be to sell, which will occupy the utilization rate of funds.
The non-farm data will be released at 20:30 on Friday. The last time the non-farm data exceeded the standard, it caused great harm to the cryptocurrency market. This time it should be more normal. Although it seems to be under a lot of pressure, everything will turn around when it reaches its extreme. At present, the current position should be kept at no more than 50%, so that you can continue to buy at the bottom when there is a big drop.
Inflation will always go down, Mentougou will always be solved, don't fail tomorrow, you can win the day after tomorrow. (Contract leverage is strictly prohibited!!!)
Later, I will bring you analysis of leading projects in other tracks. If you are interested, you can click to follow. I will also organize some cutting-edge consulting and project reviews from time to time. Welcome all like-minded people in the cryptocurrency circle to explore together.
