In the Asian market on Tuesday (September 5), the U.S. dollar index fell to 104.16. China's top leader stated that he was ready to open up the development of service industries and manufacturing activities, and a series of Chinese stimulus policies put downward pressure on the U.S. dollar. Former Singapore Finance Minister and Central Bank Chairman Tharman Shanmugaratnam won the new presidential election. He mentioned that cryptocurrency is purely speculative and a bit crazy. The bad news may cause Bitcoin to fall further below $22,000.

China's top leader speaks, real estate companies lift default crisis: US dollar encounters pressure from the East

U.S. President Joe Biden's administration, China and other members of the Group of 20 (G20) signed a joint agreement to share Bitcoin transaction information in 2027, agreed to monitor crypto asset activities, and warned that a comprehensive ban on cryptocurrencies would be costly. But submissions suggest that Bitcoin should not be granted official currency or legal tender status and that central banks should avoid holding cryptocurrencies.

Forbes reports that the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets are bracing for a $15 trillion earthquake, with Biden and other G20 members endorsing the Global Financial Stability Board’s (FSB) radical, game-changing cryptocurrency regulatory recommendations.

In the face of still strong economic data and inflation that has fallen overall but has not yet reached its target, we believe that the Fed's best stance is to stay on the sidelines and remain on the sidelines. As long as there is no large-scale supply shock, the need for radical interest rate hikes will decrease. However, having learned from previous lessons and coupled with the current variables that still exist (such as rising oil prices, strikes by the United Auto Workers, etc.), the Fed is also worried about unexpected supply disturbances that will frustrate efforts to control inflation that have shown some glimmers of hope. , therefore, whether it is the dot plot expectation of another interest rate hike during the year or the decrease in the number of interest rate cuts next year, it will prevent the market from rashly trading in advance of the end of interest rate hikes or the arrival of interest rate cuts, which will instead affect inflation expectations and paths. This also means that the effect of the dot matrix is ​​more of a "deterrence" to guide expectations, rather than an absolute guide for actual operations. On the contrary, each adjustment in the dot plot is also very large, which fully demonstrates that changes within one quarter can change many expectations. Therefore, we believe that there is no need to regard current changes as absolute guidance for the future. Therefore, overall, the Fed and Powell may also be in a state of divergence and entanglement. There may not be a clear and consistent conclusion. It is still necessary to observe future data, but two points may be relatively clear: 1) The probability and necessity of radical interest rate hikes Even if there is another increase in the fourth quarter, the expected impact may not be great. Although the recent rise in oil prices has led to a rebound in overall inflation, core inflation is still in a downward range, which means that the current monetary policy is effective. However, due to factors such as the transmission lag from this round of monetary tightening to credit tightening, interest rates need to be maintained at a higher level for a period of time. Furthermore, if oil prices do not continue to rise, overall inflation may return to decline next month. Even under the potential transmission risk of oil prices, if the Fed chooses to raise interest rates again, it may be communicated in advance for a long time. Similar to the interest rate hike in July, the impact on the market may not be great. 2) It will take longer to cut interest rates, and the magnitude may be lower than market expectations unless there is a systemic risk or a sharp recession. Unlike raising interest rates, the condition for lowering interest rates is economic pressure. However, in the context of residents' healthy balance sheets, it is difficult for this round of economic downturn to enter a more serious recession, which means that the rate of interest rate cuts may be very small.#美联储是否加息？ #token2049 #解析cyber #带你看看币安Launchpad

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Many people think that there is no chance in a bear market. For contracts, they can’t even see the basic direction and the point is not good. If they don’t get in, they will be trapped. If they are trapped, they will resist. Cut, thrust back and forth, explode back and forth! Finally left the market tragically!

It is impossible to capture which currency will rise in the spot market and which sector will be favorable in the near future. Finally, I came across a high-quality doubling currency. It was too early to buy it and sell it! Why don't you buy a junk coin, get stuck as soon as you buy it, and then think that one day you will get out of the trap, but you don't know that some projects are just air coins, and they will even be removed from the shelves in the end! The project cannot be saved!

For assets, this meeting is more hawkish on the 2024 dot plot, causing interest rates to spike higher and U.S. stocks to fall. However, with the support of economic resilience, the market originally did not expect an interest rate cut to come so soon. At the same time, there are still large variables in the long distance of the interest rate cut path next year. This means that after the short-term "stress" reaction of U.S. debt and U.S. stocks, there will also be It is difficult to use it as a basis for trend trading. Overseas assets such as U.S. bonds, U.S. stocks, gold, etc. that rely on downward trading in U.S. bond interest rates may need to wait for more effective trend opportunities. However, we judge that tight credit pressure will become more obvious in the fourth quarter, which will provide better allocation opportunities. ►U.S. Treasuries: The cyclical combination of the end of monetary policy, credit tightening, and slow and declining growth but not recession means that the room for a sharp downward trend in interest rates has not yet opened up. In the short term, due to the decrease in interest rate cuts in 2024, it is difficult to use it as a basis for trend trading. Therefore, we maintain this view. 4.3% has already taken into account the room for another interest rate hike. There is not much motivation for another sharp rise, and we can choose the opportunity to make allocations again. Short-term debt is unlikely to see interest rate cuts, and long-term debt is unlikely to see the economy weaken. After growth pressure emerges in the fourth quarter, U.S. bond interest rates may have clearer downward trend trading opportunities. ►US stocks: Earnings are supported under the "rolling" slowdown, but liquidity and valuation may be disturbed; it is not recommended to chase higher, but you can intervene again if there are too many adjustments. In the case of a "rolling" slowdown, U.S. stock earnings are supported and the risk of deep adjustment is not great. Therefore, we are not worried about the pressure of a "Davis Double Kill"-style deep adjustment. However, at the valuation level, U.S. stocks may be under pressure: from a price point of view, interest rates remain high for the time being. From a quantitative point of view, we estimate that financial liquidity may bring an 8% to 10% correction pressure to U.S. stocks. Therefore, we do not recommend chasing highs. If the adjustment is too much, you can intervene again. ►USD: There is support in the short term, and the trend turning point awaits China’s growth. The relatively stronger growth momentum in the United States and the longer-lasting tightening cycle mean that it is difficult to see a sharp decline in the US dollar trend. According to the calculations of our model, the US dollar index will still have support, with support at 100 and resistance at 105. The turning point of the trend will wait for China's growth to recover (in the fourth quarter). ►Gold: Currently suppressed by real interest rates, we still need to wait patiently.We estimate that based on the actual interest rate of around 2.0% and the fluctuation range of US$100 to US$105, the central gold price is around US$1,950/oz. The current low gold price level (around US$1,930/oz) is basically reasonable. However, more gains still have to wait for growth pressure to emerge and expectations of interest rate cuts to be catalyzed, and we still need to wait patiently. #token2049 #美联储是否加息？ #fdusd #带你看看币安Launchpad #解析cyber

On Wednesday (September 6) in the Asian market, Bitcoin remained weak at $25,800. China’s negative army raided the encryption market, and technical warnings indicate that the currency price will continue to decline in the short term. China's top leader has spoken in support of digital renminbi, and Meituan, known as the "Chinese crypto whale" and holding a large amount of Bitcoin, signed a digital renminbi cooperation agreement with the Bank of China. Weibo announced the closure of 80 crypto opinion leader accounts and issued an announcement to prevent and handle virtual currency trading speculation. The total number of fans of these accounts exceeds 8 million.

The official account of Weibo Finance issued an announcement on preventing and dealing with virtual currency transaction speculation on Tuesday, saying that in order to implement the main responsibilities of enterprises, we must strictly implement the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China", "The Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks" and "The Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks". Securities Law", "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China", "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China", "Regulations on Preventing and Dealing with Illegal Fund Raising", "Decision of the State Council on Cleaning up and Rectifying Various Trading Venues to Effectively Prevent Financial Crisis", "State Council Office In accordance with the relevant management regulations of the Department's Implementation Opinions on Cleaning up and Rectifying Various Trading Venues, the site proactively investigates and receives complaints from users, and centrally handles information on illegal virtual currency transactions and speculation. According to relevant regulations, a total of 80 accounts were closed this time.

The House of Representatives criticized the SEC, and senators urged the SEC to approve ETFs. Gary Gensler, director of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), said: BTC does not meet the Howey test, which is the country’s law as a security, and BTC is not a security. U.S. senators urged the SEC to "immediately approve the spot BTC ETF", saying that the SEC's current "rejection position" is untenable. Back to the topic: U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Director Gary Gensler testified before the U.S. House of Representatives Financial Services Committee on September 27 at a hearing on SEC oversight issues. The U.S. House Financial Services Committee said: Throughout his entire term, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Director Gary Gensler blatantly ignored Congress, both when considering rulemaking and responding to lawmakers' oversight requests. Republicans will continue to hold Gensler’s SEC to long-overdue accountability. Encryption platform Gemini said that India is the world's leading center for entrepreneurship and technology development. In the next two years, it plans to double the number of employees in its Gurgaon office from 70 to more than 150 and invest 2 billion rupees to develop the Gurgaon office. Oka's Development Center. Glassnode data shows that the number of addresses holding more than 10 ETH hit a three-month low of 347,714. Greeks.live stated that block transactions are very active, with more than 10,000 call option transactions in the BTC block and more than 100,000 call option transactions in the ETH block. As quarterly delivery approaches, there are more large trades and position moves, and buyers are now paying some premiums. Franklin Templeton Asset Management filed a 196-4 filing to initiate the SEC’s official review process for its spot BTC ETF. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has postponed a decision on the proposed ARK21Shares BTC ETF until January 10 next year. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has postponed its decision on the issuance of a Bitcoin ETF by fund management company GlobalX. The next deadline for the resolution is November 21. Gary Gensler, director of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), said: Regarding the spot BTC ETF, it is cooperating with officials of the agency. Santiment data shows that BTC trading volume (in dollar value terms) is at its lowest level since March 2019. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has been criticized. U.S. House Financial Services Committee Director Patrick McHenry criticized SEC Director Gary Gensler for his lack of response to regulatory requests.Patrick McHenrv said: "You (referring to the SEC) have done nothing to correct legitimate and bipartisan concerns, which is shameful. Our patience is running out." McHenry threatened Gensler, saying that if Gensler continues to ignore regulatory requests, it will receive summons. McHenry pointed out: "I don't think you want to be the first SEC director to receive a congressional subpoena." From the perspective of regulators, U.S. lawmakers want to prevent BTC from falling outside of regulation and believe that the SEC approves BTC spot ETFs. Regulated spot ETFs make BTC acquisition more transparent and secure, and help enhance investor protection. SEC Director Gary Gensler said: Regarding the spot BTC ETF, it is working with members of the agency. This hearing increases the possibility of BTC spot ETF being approved. The U.S. fiscal budget is difficult to pass, and the risk of the federal government shutting down due to running out of funds is rising again. If there are no new remedies, there are only 5 days left before the deadline. Goldman Sachs said: the possibility of shutdown has risen to 90%. After the Securities and Exchange Commission is closed, the release of dozens of economic data affecting the Federal Reserve's November interest rate decision may be delayed, causing the Federal Reserve to postpone its interest rate hike discussion. Former Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein said: The 5.5% interest rate is excessive, the inflation rate may be within 3%, the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates earlier than expected, and a recession is still unlikely. Mathieu Rachete, head of equity strategy at Julius Baer, ​​said that the stock market is still likely to weaken further before mid-October. The stock market is bottoming out, the long-term bull market still exists, and the market may move higher before the end of the year. Xiaomo said: A soft landing seems to be important for the Federal Reserve, which has ended raising interest rates and will soon turn to cutting interest rates. This will constitute a major bullish factor for the stock market, and the S&P 500 Index will hit a new high in mid-2024. SEC director Gary Gensler believes that BTC is not a security. U.S. senators urged the SEC director to "immediately approve a spot BTC ETF." The House of Representatives criticized Gary Gensler for responding to regulations in a timely manner and passing a spot BTC ETF. Bernstein analysts said that the SEC will take a middle path and accept current spot ETF applications, and the likelihood of approval early next year will be greatly increased. The SEC has few options to retreat. If it is approved early next year and the spot ETF is listed on Nasdaq, then there will be no need to worry about the long-term topic of "insufficient funds on the market" that has plagued the market. The stock market is expected to reach a new high before interest rates are cut in the middle of next year. At the same time, it will bring enough capital increment to the big pie to support the new cycle.The current problems are all minor ones. ETFs and interest rate cuts will become the main driving forces of the new cycle. They will all happen, so don’t be impatient. Happy Mid-Autumn Festival and Happy National Day. Friends, during the holidays, go out more to enjoy the maples and scenery, spend more time with your family, rest more, and watch the market less. The old man will stop updating from September 28th to October 8th and adjust his work and rest time. #token2049 #美联储是否加息？ #fdusd #带你看看币安Launchpad #解析cyber

The Federal Reserve discusses the benefits and risks of asset tokenization. The Federal Reserve reports that tokenization may become a larger part of the digital asset ecosystem. The most prominent benefit of "asset tokenization" is to lower barriers to entry into otherwise difficult-to-enter markets and increase the liquidity of that market. The risk is that at sufficiently large scale, tokenized assets can transmit volatility from the cryptoasset market to the cryptotoken’s reference asset market. Back to the topic: The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) stated that it will hold a virtual event "Technology and Fraud: Stopping Scams in the Digital World" on October 4. This is part of World Investor Week, October 2-9, which aims to raise awareness of the importance of investor education and protection. Huang Lexin, Director of the Licensing Section and Head of the Financial Technology Group of the Intermediary Department of the Hong Kong Securities and Exchange Commission, said that the establishment of the transition period is to prepare for platforms that have been operating in Hong Kong before June 1 and are preparing to apply for licenses, and to provide reasonable time to adjust internal issues to comply with the requirements. SEC Regulations and Requirements. Regardless of whether there is a transition period, criminals will continue to carry out illegal activities, and the public needs to be vigilant. The Hong Kong Securities and Exchange Commission stated that it will continue to work closely with the Hong Kong SAR government and other regulatory agencies to safeguard investor interests and market confidence on the one hand, and create a convenient business environment on the other to promote Hong Kong through regulated service providers. The Web3 ecosystem grows sustainably and responsibly. Amazon announced that it will invest up to $4 billion in artificial intelligence startup Anthropic to strengthen competition with competitors in the field of cloud computing. Anthropic was founded in 2021 and received US$580 million in Series B financing in 2022, led by FTX founder SBF. CoinShares reports show that digital asset investment products saw a total outflow of $9 million last week. CPIC Investment Management (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd. (CPIC Asset Management Hong Kong) announced that its existing Type 1 (securities dealing) and Type 4 (advising on securities) regulated businesses have been approved by the Hong Kong Securities and Exchange Commission for upgrading. From now on, CPIC Asset Management Hong Kong can provide distribution and investment advisory services to funds with a virtual asset investment ratio of more than 10%. A hot wallet of HTX (formerly HB) was attacked, resulting in a loss of $7.9 million.Justin Sun: HTX has fully borne the losses caused by hacker attacks, and the user asset security platform is operating normally. Bitwise has submitted an amendment to its spot BTC ETF application. The major change is the addition of a section that provides a point-by-point justification for the SEC's rejection of its previous applications and studies. Bitwise calls these "objections" and there are 8 objections in this document. Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, said that Charles Schwab just announced that they will cut the fees of TIPS bond ETF and high-yield ETF to 3 basis points (in line with other investment portfolios), illustrating the cruelty you will see in BTC ETF. Cost war. SEC-registered investment adviser Roundhill Investments said its ETH Futures ETF (ETHX) has a management fee of 0.19%. The current annual fee for grayscale management is 2%. The British Broadcasting Corporation will launch the documentary "Down fall of the Crypto King" by FTX founder SBF at 3:00 on September 26. The genre is documentary and news. Bernstein, a veteran Wall Street asset manager, said in a research report: Regarding BTC spot ETFs, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will not "make up another reason for rejection", but will take a middle road and accept the supervision agreement with Coinbase, because these proposals are made by According to traditional fund managers, and the agreement is signed with regulated exchanges such as Nasdaq, the probability of spot ETFs being approved in early 2024 is greatly increased. The current scale of the crypto fund management industry is approximately US$45-50 billion, and there will be more in the next five years. With capacity exceeding $500 billion, demand will come from investment advisors, wealth and private banking products, and the ability to easily access BTC ETFs in direct brokerage accounts. The current market value of the market is about US$500 billion. After the spot ETF is approved, the increase in funds will be worth looking forward to. Bloomberg ETF analysts believe that BTC ETF will enter a fee competition. The current grayscale management annual fee is 2%, while the management fees of other established asset managers may drop by 90% to expand the market and compete for customers. The Federal Reserve released a report titled "Tokenization: Overview and Financial Stability Implications," which aims to provide background on tokenization and discuss its potential benefits as well as financial stability risks. The Fed said that many projects involving various reference assets are in development, indicating that tokenization may become a larger part of the digital asset ecosystem.The most prominent benefit of asset tokenization is lowering barriers to entry into otherwise difficult-to-enter markets and increasing liquidity in that market. Financial Stability Risks of Tokenization: At sufficiently large scale, tokenized assets can transmit volatility from the cryptoasset market to the reference asset market for the cryptotoken. To prepare for a rainy day, market participants are discussing the prospects of BTC spot ETFs after approval; regulators are discussing the benefits and risks brought by asset tokens, especially "tokenization" to break market barriers and improve traditional market liquidity. Both seem optimistic. If the new crypto market predicted by "traditional asset management and market regulators" comes true, starting from spot ETFs in 2024, the people who will benefit the most may be the natives of BTC. When discussing the development prospects of Big Pie in more than ten years, the most vocal voices in the past were doubts, but Big Pie has successfully achieved a jump in value every time, so persistence is worth it, just in case it succeeds. Time is coming soon, so you might as well go and have a look. #token2049 #美联储是否加息？ #fdusd #带你看看币安Launchpad #解析cyber