For assets, this meeting was more hawkish on the dot plot for 2024, leading to higher interest rates and falling US stocks. However, supported by economic resilience, the market did not expect a rate cut to come so soon. At the same time, the path of rate cuts next year is far away and there are still large variables, which means that after the short-term "stress" reaction of US bonds and US stocks, it is difficult to use them as a basis for trend trading. Overseas assets such as US bonds, US stocks, and gold that rely on the downward trend of US bond interest rates may need to wait for more effective trend opportunities. However, we judge that tight credit pressure will be more obvious in the fourth quarter, providing better allocation opportunities at that time.
►U.S. Treasuries: The cyclical combination of the end of monetary policy, credit tightening, and slow and declining growth but not recession means that the room for a sharp downward trend in interest rates has not yet opened up. In the short term, due to the decrease in interest rate cuts in 2024, it is difficult to use it as a basis for trend trading. Therefore, we maintain this view. 4.3% has already taken into account the room for another interest rate hike. There is not much motivation for another sharp rise, and we can choose the opportunity to make allocations again. Short-term debt is unlikely to see interest rate cuts, and long-term debt is unlikely to see the economy weaken. After growth pressure emerges in the fourth quarter, U.S. bond interest rates may have clearer downward trend trading opportunities.
►US stocks: Earnings are supported under the "rolling" slowdown, but liquidity and valuation may be disturbed; it is not recommended to chase higher, but you can intervene again if there are too many adjustments. In the case of a "rolling" slowdown, U.S. stock earnings are supported and the risk of deep adjustment is not great. Therefore, we are not worried about the pressure of a "Davis Double Kill"-style deep adjustment. However, at the valuation level, U.S. stocks may be under pressure: from a price point of view, interest rates will remain high for the time being. From a quantitative point of view, we estimate that financial liquidity may bring an 8% to 10% correction pressure to U.S. stocks. Therefore, we do not recommend chasing highs. If the adjustment is too much, you can intervene again.
►USD: There is support in the short term, and the trend turning point awaits China’s growth. The relatively stronger growth momentum in the United States and the longer-lasting tightening cycle mean that it is difficult to see a sharp decline in the US dollar trend. According to the calculations of our model, the US dollar index will still have support, with support at 100 and resistance at 105. The turning point of the trend will wait for China's growth to recover (in the fourth quarter).
►Gold: Currently suppressed by real interest rates, we still need to wait patiently. We estimate that based on the actual interest rate of around 2.0% and the fluctuation range of US$100 to US$105, the central gold price is around US$1,950/oz. The current low gold price level (around US$1,930/oz) is basically reasonable. However, more gains still have to wait for growth pressure to emerge and expectations of interest rate cuts to be catalyzed, and we still need to wait patiently. #token2049 #美联储是否加息？ #fdusd #带你看看币安Launchpad #解析cyber
