Faced with still strong economic data and inflation that has fallen overall but has not yet reached the target, we believe that the Fed's best attitude is to stay put and wait and see. As long as there is no large-scale supply shock, the need for aggressive rate hikes will decrease. However, learning from previous lessons and coupled with the variables that still exist (such as rising oil prices, the United Auto Workers strike, etc.), the Fed is also worried that unexpected supply disturbances will cause the efforts to control inflation, which have already shown some hope, to fall short. Therefore, whether it is the dot plot expectation of another rate hike this year or the reduction in the number of rate cuts next year, it is to prevent the market from acting rashly and trading in advance that the rate hike will end or the rate cut will come, which will affect inflation expectations and paths. This means that the effect of the dot plot is more of a "deterrent" role in guiding expectations, rather than an absolute guide for actual operations. On the contrary, the adjustment range of the dot plot is also large each time, which fully demonstrates that changes within a quarter can change many expectations. Therefore, we believe that there is no need to regard the current changes as an absolute guide for the future.
Therefore, overall, the Fed and Powell may also be in a state of disagreement and entanglement. There may not be a clear and consistent conclusion. It is necessary to observe future data, but two points may be relatively clear: 1) The probability and necessity of aggressive interest rate hikes have decreased. Even if there is another increase in the fourth quarter, the impact after full anticipation may not be very large. Although the recent rise in oil prices has led to a rebound in overall inflation, core inflation is still in a downward range, which means that the current monetary policy is effective. However, due to factors such as the transmission lag from tight money to tight credit in this round, interest rates need to be maintained at a higher level for a period of time. Furthermore, if it is assumed that oil prices do not continue to rise, overall inflation may return to a downward trend next month. Even under the potential transmission risk of oil prices, if the Fed chooses to raise interest rates again, it may communicate and brew for a long time in advance, similar to the rate hike in July, and the impact on the market may not be very large. 2) It will take longer to cut interest rates, and the magnitude may also be lower than market expectations, unless there is a systemic risk or a sharp recession. Unlike raising interest rates, the condition for lowering interest rates is economic pressure. However, in the context of healthy balance sheets of residents, it is difficult for this round of economic downturn to enter a more serious recession, which means that the magnitude of the rate cut may be small. #美联储是否加息？ #token2049 #解析cyber #带你看看币安Launchpad
