Projects that make money don't issue coins, and projects that issue coins don't make money.
Polymarket and pumpfun don't issue coins, but they've made a lot of money.
Friendtech issued coins, but they made a lot of money; they didn't make money, so they issued coins and left the market.
When evaluating US stock companies, we mainly look at current profitability and future profitability. I believe the future of the cryptocurrency world will be the same, and storytelling will become less and less popular. #灰度将推出首个美国XRP信托 #美联储利率决议公布在即 #加密市场急跌

Many altcoins are close to bottoming out, but only a few will explode in the first wave. Who will they be? This is the most important question to think about in the near future.

Last time, I hit ordi, and the bottom was pulled up 20 times, and it pulled up before ai and meme.

This time, if we use a similar thinking framework, we still have to think according to these standards:

Old technology, new gameplay;

New concept, new hope;

Batch generation of new assets.

Which one do you think it will be? #美国8月核心CPI超预期 #灰度将推出首个美国XRP信托 #新币挖矿HMSTR

In the world of investment, steady and cautious is the way to go. My strategy is to keep an eye on two key points and stay put at other times. When the market gives a signal to buy at the bottom, I will act decisively, and at the same time I will pay attention to when to stop.

Don't be led by the ups and downs of the market. It is easy to lose your way if you call it a bull market when it rises and a bear market when it falls. It is better to calm down, study economics well, and have a deep understanding of the operation of the global financial market. This is what you should do now.

Speaking of Bitcoin, this round of bull market has soared from $15,000 to $73,000, which has broken our understanding of traditional cycles. So, don't stare at the old almanac of a four-year cycle. We have to take a long-term view. From 2015 to 2025, this is the big cycle we should pay attention to. In this way, we can grasp the pulse of the market more clearly and make more accurate investment decisions.
As for the big cycle I mentioned, I think those who understand will naturally understand.
The truth is always in the hands of a few people. Your cognition determines your ultimate wealth💹#特朗普哈里斯辩论未提及加密货币 #灰度将推出首个美国XRP信托

MicroStrategy bought 18,300 bitcoins today, worth about $11.1. Retail investors are panicking, but institutions are taking the opportunity to buy at the bottom. In the end, all the money in the market is earned by institutions and whales. #特朗普哈里斯辩论未提及加密货币 #新币挖矿HMSTR #灰度将推出首个美国XRP信托

In the past three months, there have been four "rising wedges". Except for the time when the German government sold BTC vigorously, they all chose to break upward with a small probability. Now it seems that another rising wedge has formed;

It has become a normal practice for the current market to completely disrespect price patterns. In the past market, rising wedges would continue to amplify the greed of bulls, while the current rising wedges, on the contrary, continue to cultivate the spirit of unwillingness to admit defeat of bears...

So do you think the market will respect the logic of "rising wedge" = bearish structure this time?
##灰度将推出首个美国XRP信托 #FTX赎回Solana

《Ten Predictions for 25 Years》

1. BTC will rise to 120,000 by the end of the year, ETH 5,000

2. Most altcoins can rise due to releases, but the increase may not be greater than BTC, and they will fall before the bull market.

3. The meme market is likely to be concentrated on projects that have been listed on Binance, and it will need to be deeply washed before it breaks out - if it can't be washed, there will be no meme market.

4. TON tokens will perform poorly, and ecological mini-games will maintain a downward trend.

5. The stablecoin track may have a new narrative: payment, compliance, growth, etc.

6. Before BTC rises, the currency circle will be collapsed by technology stocks and unexpected negative news

7. There will be a head L2 rebellion against ETH, empowering the main currency instead of ETH.

8. 99% of L2 will die, and users will focus on the top few. There will be no surprises for the high-valuation projects that have not been launched, just like the L2 that will soon die in large numbers

9. Blockchain + AI, there will still be many new projects, but most of them will not work

10. The social track will still be garbage, and blockchain + social will not work.

Just for entertainment, I am against it, don't refer to it. #美国大选如何影响加密产业？ #美国8月CPI数据高于预期

A few years ago, I wrote a point of view similar to "Moore's Law":

The first 100,000 is the most difficult, and it is likely to require POW

The first 1 million is also difficult, and logic, opportunity, and capital are all necessary

The first 10 million is easier, and the logic and system are perfect, and it requires timing

The first 100 million mainly depends on luck

What about the first 1 billion? It mainly depends on fate

What about the first 10 billion? It mainly depends on living long

Do the right thing and wait for luck, which works for everyone. #BNBChainMemeCoin #以太坊基金会 #美国大选如何影响加密产业？

Historically, September is bearish but October is bullish
The saying of "Golden September and Silver October" in the cryptocurrency circle does exist
But this "Golden September" may mean
There may be a golden pit in September for people to buy at the bottom
The main rising wave is between October 2024 and March 2025
From the situation in previous election years, from October to November
Usually, there is a continuous copycat market in the cryptocurrency circle
2020 is also a half-year decrease, and it rose by 33% in October
This time it may bring a 10-30% increase
Copycats may bring an increase of 50%-100%#小非农增幅创3年多新低 #以太坊基金会 #OpenSea收到韦尔斯通知

In this round of big cycle, no matter it is a small bull or a big bull, I think the way of playing spot has to change. You can no longer squeeze dozens of times or hundreds of times in one go as in the previous three big cycles before exiting. This way of playing is too risky now. It is easy to lose your principal in one careless move#Telegram创始人获保释 #BNBChainMemeCoin #BTC走势分析

When can I go all-in on altcoins?

The most likely time for the altcoin season to come is when the altcoin index Total2 (Crypto Total Market Cap Excluding BTC, $) reaches the oversold area on a weekly basis again.

In the past 805 days, Total2 has been oversold four times on a weekly basis, the last of which occurred on September 11, 2023, and then the six-month altcoin season began. Therefore, the signal worth paying attention to is that when Total2 hits oversold again, it may be the key time for the next altcoin season to begin.

The last plunge, and then the big cake will be pulled up to 100,000u in one breath. #美联储何时降息？ #小非农增幅创3年多新低 #美国8月非农就业人数不及预期

Today's market analysis is very important today. It has reached a critical point. I will talk about the logical analysis first, and then recommend a few coins later.

There will be non-agricultural data tonight. Pay attention to short-term fluctuations. I looked at a lot of data in the morning. Combined with the market, I will talk about the expected judgment of the current trend. First of all, the price has been in a negative decline recently and the market sentiment is pessimistic. The big cake is oscillating back and forth and harvesting contracts, which has caused the spot cottage to be very poor. Many people's thinking has begun to change and chase short contracts. Or high leverage for volatility, which is also the thinking that the current dealers need to cultivate. #BNBChainMemeCoin #美联储何时降息？ #小非农增幅创3年多新低

What does Buffett's cash level represent? Is it a leading indicator or a lagging indicator? What does it mean that their cash is approaching an astonishing $300 billion recently? (I)

This is an article that has been delayed for a long time. I have wanted to write it since I saw Buffett selling Apple to cash out. In this article, I will combine the changes in his cash level with the dynamics of the US stock market in the corresponding period to draw my conclusions. However, the conclusion is ultimately a personal opinion based on data. Welcome to discuss different opinions in the comment area.

First of all, is $300 billion a lot?

300 billion in cash is a lot of money for any company. But for Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B), it may not be as much as you think. When we measure this amount of money, we need to see how much of it accounts for the company? We use his latest Total Asset to calculate how much of the total assets are in cash on hand?

The calculation shows that the current cash accounts for 24% of the total assets.

This is terribly high!

Why do you say that? I have climbed up this value in the past five years (2018-2023). Usually the cash ratio fluctuates between 11% and 18%, but never exceeds 20%.
However, from March 2022 to now, the cash scale has risen sharply. From 106 billion to 276 billion, the proportion has also jumped from the previous 11% to 24%.
Why is this the case? Buffett said something in this year's shareholders' meeting, which I think is the answer to this question:
"We will only swing at the right time! There is no investment target that is attractive enough for me to allocate assets now"#美联储何时降息？ #BTC走势分析

BTC's spot premium index briefly returned to positive in the strong rebound last night, but the premium has now turned negative again. After sorting out the recent small-scale market, we can see that the spot selling pressure did have a continuous supply before the price reached 56,000;

But in the rapid price drop yesterday morning, the spot did not participate, but it was a wave of rapid decline led by futures shorts, the purpose of which was to knock down the long stop loss of 56,100 on the left;

After capturing the liquidity, the position was closed immediately, forming a V-reversal on the small-scale K-line.

Subsequently, during the opening of the U.S. stock market yesterday, driven by the U.S. stock market, spot buying began to gradually enter the market, slowly pushing the premium to near the positive value. Then, in the small increase from 57700 to 58300, the participation of spot buying decreased, and futures bulls began to follow up, causing the premium to return to the negative range again;

From the current short-term market, the area with spot buying demand on the market is between 56700-57700, that is, before there is no new spot demand, the price is likely to step back to the green order block area in the figure again, which happens to be the 4H level FVG.

If the corresponding callback occurs, we can take this opportunity to observe whether the demand for spot buying is sufficient:

1. If the price callback to this area, the spot premium begins to rise significantly, which means that the demand side is willing to buy at a higher position, and the futures shorts are still adding fuel to the market. This will be an opportunity to buy more on the callback;

2. If the price callback to this area, the spot premium begins to decline significantly, which means that the previous rebound is aimed at grabbing short liquidity, and the spot demand is only short-lived. Then this 4h-level "bottom-breaking" is likely to be a lure to buy more, and the price will continue the previous volatile downward trend. There is a risk of buying more in this area;

In general, the main purpose of paying attention to the spot premium is to see whether the demand side re-enters the market, because there is a price behavior worth looking at on the market, so we only need to exclude the manipulation of "lure to buy more". #Telegram创始人获保释 #非农就业数据即将公布

I miss the time in 2021. I had money, many girls chased me, the market was good, and I didn’t treat money as money. Now the market is getting more and more saturated, and there are more and more currencies. If the funds can’t keep up, it will be difficult to rise. Do you have any new opportunities? The kind of sudden wealth, take me with you
#BTC走势预测 #Telegram创始人获保释 #美联储何时降息？

The top 10 popular Meme coins have dropped an average of 63.73% in a year compared to their peak!

As of today, Lookonchain data is revealed! The top 10 Meme coins by market value have dropped an average of 63.73% from their peak to their bottom in the past year!

DOGE: -57.93% (Fortunately, it was a gentle drop)
SHIB: -70.86% (Did it come down by rocket?)
PEPE: -58.16% (Even the frog couldn't escape)
WIF: -70.93% (Following SHIB's footsteps)
BONK: -64.63% (It also fell hard)
FLOKI: -65.97% (The Viking wolf was also tired)
BRETT: -62.59% (The decline was fierce)
POPCAT: -43.77% (Fortunately, it was a small drop to ease the mood)
BOME: -79.48% (This drop is painful)
MEW: -62.99% (It's not easy either)

Which meme coins will return to their peak next? Welcome to leave a message! #以太坊基金会 #新币挖矿DOGS #以太坊基金会

Trend is the best guide. No matter how the K-line fluctuates in the short term, it will eventually go in its predetermined direction. If the trend is downward, no matter how many rebounds there are in the middle, it will eventually go downward; if the trend is upward, no matter how many pullbacks there are in the middle, it will eventually go upward. #以太坊基金会 #BTC走势分析 #非农就业数据即将公布

Anyone who is a little bit motivated has been in debt in the past six months😟#美联储何时降息？ #BTC走势分析 #非农就业数据即将公布

The copycat season is coming soon. Many people are still pessimistic. Wake up quickly. Otherwise, you will miss the real feast. #英伟达财报 #Telegram创始人获保释 #以太坊基金会

The Bitcoin ecosystem is going further and further down the wrong path. I now clearly realize that the Bitcoin ecosystem will not have any future. Bitcoin does not really need any ecosystem. The reason why the Bitcoin ecosystem is not completely dead now is that many big cuts laid out this track last year and prepared to cut a lot. Now although they have found that the track is wrong, they have already shot the arrow and can only bite the bullet and do it. Such reckless actions regardless of the facts will not have a good result in the end. I summarize the Bitcoin ecosystem in four words: the last gasp of a dying force. All the inscriptions and runes are also garbage among garbage. Continuously wasting manpower and material resources on a completely wrong track is one of the main reasons why this year's bull market is worse than the bear market. #英伟达财报 #美联储何时降息？ #Telegram创始人获保释