#鲍威尔讲话 $BTC #降息预测
Powell's words, a month of hard work for nothing

Hahahahahahahaha

Hahahahahahahahahahaha

Hahahahaha

What the hell

The remarks of the Fed governor shocked the market, and the price of Bitcoin plummeted by 3,000 points, and the market volatility was highlighted again.

Recently, the remarks of the Fed governor in a public interview were like a bombshell, which instantly caused a violent shock in the global financial market. The governor made it clear that the expectation of a rate cut in 2024 was not a fact that was set in stone. This unexpected statement immediately attracted widespread attention and discussion in the market.

Immediately afterwards, the Bitcoin (BTC) market responded quickly and strongly to this. The price of BTC, which was originally hovering around 63,400 points, plummeted in a short period of time and directly fell to 60,255 points, evaporating an astonishing 3,000 points in a short period of time.

In the past, the Bitcoin market often used traditional narratives such as halving and upgrading to influence price trends. However, with the passage of time, market sentiment and the weathervane of the global financial market-the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, have gradually become important factors affecting the price of BTC. The remarks of the Fed governor this time undoubtedly proved this again.

At present, the Bitcoin market is in a subtle V-shaped reversal market, with the forces of both long and short sides intertwined, and the market may usher in a change at any time. In this context, we should observe market dynamics more carefully and control risks reasonably to avoid losses in market fluctuations.

In the days to come, I will continue to pay close attention to market dynamics and provide you with timely and accurate information and analysis.
#BTC走势分析 #5月市场关键事件 #降息预测 #eth二饼

Recent statements by several ECB officials and the latest forecasts from multiple institutions show that the ECB is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this Thursday. How long can the Fed hold out? Last year, many so-called cryptocurrency experts predicted that around April this year would be the lowest point of this bull market, and Bitcoin would fall below $20,000. As a result, it took off in October last year, which was beyond everyone's expectations, and a group of short-selling players were blown up. My long orders in July are still generating income (see screenshot). Now there is another consensus among the big bulls that October next year will be the high point of this bull market. If most people think so, it will definitely not happen. Yesterday, it was said that the Federal Reserve will release 2.3 trillion US dollars to the market before September 30 this year. In addition, in the year of the US election, in order to attract voters, lowering interest rates to cater to voters and rising stock prices are a game that every government plays. This round of halving bull market will not reach its highest point in October next year as in the old script. It will definitely be beyond everyone's expectations and come early. How do you plan? Think clearly! #降息预测 #牛市进展

"Societe Generale warns: The Fed is about to cut interest rates, what will be the fate of the US dollar?"
Analysts at Societe Generale dropped a bombshell: The Fed may press the interest rate cut button in September, but don't worry, the US dollar will not plummet. Foreign exchange strategists point out that although the strong rebound of the US dollar in 2021-2022 provides room for a possible decline, unless the US economy slows down far more than expected, interest rates are unlikely to fall back to pre-epidemic levels.

Expectations of interest rate cuts:
The September interest rate cut is imminent, and the market is holding its breath.

US dollar stability:
Even if interest rates are cut, the depreciation of the US dollar will be limited, showing its resilience as a safe-haven currency.

Yen under pressure:
The biggest fluctuation may be in the US dollar-yen exchange rate, which is expected to fall from 156.197 to 140 by early 2025.

What do you think of Societe Generale's analysis?
#美国以太坊现货ETF开始交易 #比特币大会 #降息预测 #山寨季何时到来？ #美国PCE数据将公布

Detailed explanation of July non-farm payrolls, must read!!!
Today's non-farm payrolls report surprised the market. Only 114,000 new jobs were created in July, the lowest record in three and a half years, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, a three-year high, triggering the Sam's Rule recession indicator. Panic spread, and traders began to bet on a 50 basis point rate cut in September, and the rate cut is expected to exceed 110 basis points this year.

In terms of specific data, non-farm payrolls increased by 114,000 in July, far below the expected 175,000. The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% last month to 4.3%. Wage growth slowed, with hourly wages rising by 0.2% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year, both lower than expected.

After the data was released, U.S. stock futures fell sharply in the short term, with Nasdaq futures falling by more than 2%, S&P 500 futures falling by 1.6%, and Dow futures falling by 1.2%. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell by 19 basis points to 3.79% at one point, and the U.S. dollar index also fell.

Despite the strong performance of the labor market in the past two years, it now seems that the Fed is more likely to cut interest rates in September to prevent the labor market from slowing further. Clark Bellin, chief investment officer of Bellwether Wealth, said that the Fed must cut interest rates in September to prevent the labor market from slowing further.

The rise in unemployment has triggered the Sam rule, an indicator that has predicted recessions with 100% accuracy since 1970. But some analysts believe that this does not necessarily mean that the economy has entered a recession, but is just an early warning sign that the economy will weaken further.

In terms of employment structure, employment in healthcare, construction, transportation and warehousing continued to increase in July, but the information industry lost 20,000 jobs. Government employment growth slowed down, and other major industries did not change much.

#就业数据 #经济衰退 #市场分析 #美联储何时降息？ #降息预测

The next market trend
$ETH $BTC $BNB
The American delegation recently visited China to discuss two things, the US debt issue and the BRICS currency. Also, we should not sell a large amount of US debt when they cut interest rates. The US stock market rose so much yesterday, and there was still a lot of capital selling. The rise is for capital cashing out. This market is whether you want to gamble or seek stability. Normally, seeking stability is the most basic point for traders.

Recommended currency
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I wish you all good luck. Pay attention to risk control! It will be updated frequently in the future. For reference only. Trading needs to be cautious! Strategy projects are updated irregularly every day
#美国CPI数据连续第4个月回落
#美联储何时降息？
#降息预测
#加密市场反弹
#BTC☀

Latest reports from the cryptocurrency circle
★The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates once this year, and Bitcoin has fallen with the stock market
★OKXWeb3 wallet is now connected to the Chiliz and BOB networks
★Bernstein analysts raised the target price of Bitcoin to $200,000 by the end of 2025
★Bitget Wealth Management Treasure USDT current interest rate soared in a short period of time, temporarily reported
36.42% APR
★Greenpeace: Wall Street must be responsible for Bitcoin mining emissions
★Coolpad Group signed a HK$100 million contract to purchase crypto mining servers this month★Bernstein gave MicroStrategy an "outperform" rating, saying Bitcoin could reach $1 million in 10 years
#BTC☀ #降息预测

Interest rate cuts are inevitable. Combined with the bull market cycle of Bitcoin halving, since the macro and cyclical trends have been determined, those who are short can buy high-quality altcoins in batches;

Positions have been full in March, so don't move them. Frequent car changes are common situations of missing out on the market and losing capital;

There is no need to focus on the current fluctuations and keep yourself in a short position. Fixed investment is the key.

If you are losing money now and don't know what to do, you can click me to follow and click my avatar to find me at any time. All contract spot gameplay is shared. Just to increase fans #第55期新币挖矿IO #bnb历史新高 #山寨季何时到来？ #降息预测

On July 25, according to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 93.3%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 6.7%.
The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by September is 0%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 89.6%, the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 10.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point rate cut is 0.3%
#降息预期 #降息预测

The speech of the Fed Chairman was expected to be a rehash of leftovers, but his remarks also revealed some useful information. The government deficit is serious and the labor force is weakening. The US stock market has been advancing all the way, and combined with analysis, it is found that something is wrong.

First, the US dollar has raised interest rates for 11 consecutive times. Raising interest rates is a way to curb inflation.

The high interest rate of the US dollar has increased deposits and reduced loans, and the negative returns of banks have intensified, so the bank failure rate is high.

The high interest rate of the US dollar has led to capital flowing back to the United States and the stock market has soared. It seems good. In fact, there is a mystery. This excessive practice has led to the fact that actual corporate earnings are often not as high as stocks reflect, and the bubble is very serious.

Second, the US election year
The government headed by Biden and the Democratic Party must have political achievements if they want to continue to be re-elected this year. Biden is a hawkish warmonger who has caused the US dollar and gold prices to soar by inducing global tensions and inducing wars between other countries.
The United States has continued to raise interest rates, resulting in the depreciation of currencies of various countries, the increase in the cost of imported goods, the cheapness of exported goods, and the outflow of foreign capital, which has hindered the economic development of various countries. With the inflow of capital, the US stock economy has been pulled up. The Federal Reserve will sell off treasury bonds to recover dollars and reduce the pressure on treasury bonds, but the Biden administration's deficit is still very serious and the labor force is weakening. It can be seen that US export trade has become very difficult. With the economic downturn in various countries, who will buy US goods at a high price? This has increased cooperation between other countries and will also lead to difficulties in exporting US goods.
Raising interest rates is beneficial to the US economy and curbs inflation. However, excessive interest rate increases and the euro's choice to cut interest rates will only lead to overproduction, capital inflows leading to stock market rises and eventually forming bubbles.

Third, the US economy is not as good as the US stock market, corporate loan interest rates are high, operations are difficult, corporate layoffs are high, and real estate sales are difficult.

Personally, I think the interest rate cut has come quietly. #降息预测

#今日数据有助于比特币突破65000阻力位

Today's data is closely related to the US macro-economy, mainly including economic indicators such as unemployment benefits, GDP growth, and personal consumption expenditures (PCE). The impact of the release of these data on the crypto market can be understood from the following aspects:
Unemployment benefits: If the actual data is higher than expected, it indicates that the US labor market is weak and may affect the Fed's decision to raise interest rates. Loose monetary policies (such as interest rate cuts or pauses in interest rate hikes) are generally good for the crypto market because low interest rates make risky assets more attractive.

GDP growth: This is an important indicator of economic health. If the actual growth rate meets or exceeds expectations (3%), the market may believe that economic growth is robust, which helps to support confidence in financial markets. A robust economic environment has a neutral or positive impact on crypto assets.

PCE price index: This is the inflation indicator that the Federal Reserve pays the most attention to. If inflation is mild (in line with expectations or lower than the expected 2.8%), it means that the Federal Reserve may not raise interest rates significantly, which is good for the cryptocurrency market, and investors may increase their holdings in inflation-resistant assets such as Bitcoin.

If the data is robust and the inflation and unemployment data are in line with or lower than expectations, it may support the bullish sentiment in the crypto market in the short term.

If the data is good, be careful of downward pinning to induce shorting and then bursting! #降息周期 #降息预测 #降息期待 $BTC

美国的个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数是衡量通货膨胀的重要指标之一。近期，该指数维持在2.8%，显示通胀压力有所缓解。随着2024年美国大选的临近，降息的可能性成为市场和经济学家关注的焦点。

**PCE指数及其影响**

PCE价格指数是美联储最看重的通胀指标，因为它包括了更广泛的消费品和服务价格，并且能更好地反映消费者的真实支出情况。2.8%的PCE指数虽然仍高于美联储的2%的目标，但已经显著低于前期的高位。这一缓解迹象可能为美联储提供更多的政策灵活性。

**降息的经济背景**

美国经济虽然展现出韧性，但也面临一定的下行压力。消费增长放缓、制造业疲软以及国际贸易不确定性等因素可能抑制经济扩张。在这种背景下，降息可以刺激经济活动，提振消费者和企业信心。

**大选因素**

2024年大选将对美国的政治和经济产生深远影响。历届政府都希望在大选前维持或提振经济，以提高选民支持率。降息可以降低借贷成本，刺激消费和投资，有助于营造有利的经济环境。这一政策工具可能被用来应对经济疲软，改善就业和收入状况，从而提升执政党的竞选优势。

**美联储的考量**

尽管政治压力可能推动降息，但美联储作为独立的机构，主要依据经济数据和预期做出决策。当前的通胀率虽然有所缓解，但仍需观察未来数月的趋势。如果经济数据支持降息，美联储可能在大选前采取行动，特别是在通胀进一步回落、经济增长乏力的情况下。

**总结**

PCE指数维持在2.8%为美联储提供了潜在的降息空间，特别是在经济面临挑战和大选临近的情况下。然而，最终决策仍需综合考虑经济数据、通胀预期以及美联储的独立性。随着大选日期的逼近，市场和公众将密切关注美联储的动向，期待其政策能为经济注入新的活力。#PCE物价指数 #美国大选 #降息预测

#BTC

After the pin is inserted, the market will fluctuate sideways
The hourly level will repair the indicator to stop the decline in the short term
However, you can buy in batches for layout or short-term
It is definitely not the time for you to cut losses
Short-term receive four-hour high-sell and low-buy in batches
For layout, it depends on your own position and how many layers of warehouse you have now
If it falls, there is still U and if it rises, there is currency
For the rest, give time to exchange profits
#BTC#比特币减半 #降息预测

#美国4月CPI数据回落 #降息预测

The Federal Reserve is expected to start cutting interest rates in September this year, and then cut interest rates twice in November and December respectively. The bull market will not stop if interest rate cuts continue. The market has been volatile recently, and most of the altcoins have returned to the prices of October last year.
But looking at the spot price I gave on April 13, it is now clear that it is the low point.

Many people have no rules at all. When they see a piece of news, they place an order to buy within 5 minutes. If they don’t rise after half an hour, they feel uncomfortable and immediately think about selling.

Without a mature trading system, you don’t know where the macro position is going? Where is the short-term capital movement, how the sectors rotate, and where is the next narrative point.

These are all systematic and strategic. If you mess around without a system or strategy, of course you can’t make money.

The rules for retail investors to make money:

1. Once the rise begins, it will not end easily, so don’t be afraid of the big correction in the early stage, enter the market boldly, the most troublesome thing is to continue to wait for a lower point, the higher you wait, the more empty it will be.

2. There are many pins in the bull market. If your position is not full, try to wait for a pullback and go all in directly, otherwise you will be given a shot at any time, and most people can’t stand it.

3. You must do a good job of position management. It is best to have a layout in several key sectors, because if you have a full position in one sector, this sector will not move in the short term, and other sectors will rise all the way, which is the most uncomfortable.

You are trapped again when you chase, and it takes off again after a few days of clearing the warehouse. Many people have encountered this, so either don’t buy it, or you must hold it firmly after buying it, and you will always wait for your coin to rotate. In the bull market, even the rubbish coins can have a five-fold or ten-fold increase.

4. The market always rises in disagreement. A bunch of people often scold opportunities, but when everyone is optimistic, it is a risk.
5. Don’t always think about short-term high-selling and low-buying. Once you get off the bus halfway, you will find that you can’t get back on. You can’t make as much money as others who lie still after playing around in the short term.

6. Every time the market pulls back, there will be a panic, and everyone says that the bull has run away. The fact is that it will take at least three or four major pullbacks before the bull market may end.

#BTC #ETH #5月市场关键事件 #降息预测 #灰度GBTC资金流出趋势结束了吗？

We will lay out an ambush for a spot in the near future
There is a high probability of doubling in the short term, and 3-6 times increase in the long term.
Again, if you take the initiative to find me, I will take you ashore, and you just lie down.
Fans who want to follow can see my personal pinned post!
Comment area deduct 6 to bring you into my circle for free!

Dafu will not let my fans miss out in this bull market!This is the truth👈

[Bitcoin counterattacks 6.8 and may try to hit the high of 6.9 again. Can it succeed? We have re-interpreted the non-agricultural data, and the imagination space for interest rate cut expectations has opened up, which is good]

The non-agricultural data released tonight is very strange. The number of employed people has also increased, and the unemployment rate has also increased. You can say how magical this data is, and it is a mixed blessing.

But looking at the trend of gold, after the non-agricultural data was released, gold continued to rise and hit a new high. Moreover, the U.S. dollar index began to fall, non-U.S. currencies climbed strongly, and the pound sterling and the Japanese yen appreciated at the same time. So we reinterpreted the non-agricultural data.

Reinterpret it as follows: From the data point of view, the U.S. economy is performing very healthily, and the number of new jobs is still growing. But at the same time, the economy is cooling, the unemployment rate unexpectedly soared to 3.9%, and wage growth was lower than expected, only 0.1%. This data generally favors an interest rate cut, so the imagination of interest rate cuts has once again opened up. Good news!

The new strategy hereby wishes success in the Bitcoin impact in advance! Create historical glory!

$BTC #热门话题 #降息预测

I would like to share some personal opinions with you for reference only!

First, it is difficult for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the near future. The market trend is also reaching its peak, and the US stock market has also entered a correction period.

Second, the previous 73,000 liquidation was an expected operation. The current market is in line with expectations. Now it can only be a band, and the pattern is not suitable.

Third, the next opportunity in the currency circle will be after the correction. Interest rate cuts are inevitable and require a time period. The current independent market of the big cake has gone too far and is appropriately corrected. The cottage also makes a weekly line that breaks through and steps back. This is a very good thing. Do you dare to buy when the step is in place? Whether to buy or not is what we need to consider. The current overall economic environment is not enough for the big cake to stand firmly in the top 5 of the global market value, but the peak market value should be reached.

Fourth, in other words, after the correction, it is not a big problem for us to buy boldly. First, there is support from the price of miners, and second, there is support from the market value of ETFs. Third, there is an expected market for interest rate cuts in the future. The most stable operation is to invest large funds or find a position to directly pull half of the position, and then the operation of small coins needs to be based on the market. #加息 #降息预测 #抄底