The speech of the Fed Chairman was expected to be a rehash of leftovers, but his remarks also revealed some useful information. The government deficit is serious and the labor force is weakening. The US stock market has been advancing all the way, and combined with analysis, it is found that something is wrong.

First, the US dollar has raised interest rates for 11 consecutive times. Raising interest rates is a way to curb inflation.

The high interest rate of the US dollar has increased deposits and reduced loans, and the negative returns of banks have intensified, so the bank failure rate is high.

The high interest rate of the US dollar has led to capital flowing back to the United States and the stock market has soared. It seems good. In fact, there is a mystery. This excessive practice has led to the fact that actual corporate earnings are often not as high as stocks reflect, and the bubble is very serious.

Second, the US election year

The government headed by Biden and the Democratic Party must have political achievements if they want to continue to be re-elected this year. Biden is a hawkish warmonger who has caused the US dollar and gold prices to soar by inducing global tensions and inducing wars between other countries.

The United States has continued to raise interest rates, resulting in the depreciation of currencies of various countries, the increase in the cost of imported goods, the cheapness of exported goods, and the outflow of foreign capital, which has hindered the economic development of various countries. With the inflow of capital, the US stock economy has been pulled up. The Federal Reserve will sell off treasury bonds to recover dollars and reduce the pressure on treasury bonds, but the Biden administration's deficit is still very serious and the labor force is weakening. It can be seen that US export trade has become very difficult. With the economic downturn in various countries, who will buy US goods at a high price? This has increased cooperation between other countries and will also lead to difficulties in exporting US goods.

Raising interest rates is beneficial to the US economy and curbs inflation. However, excessive interest rate increases and the euro's choice to cut interest rates will only lead to overproduction, capital inflows leading to stock market rises and eventually forming bubbles.

Third, the US economy is not as good as the US stock market, corporate loan interest rates are high, operations are difficult, corporate layoffs are high, and real estate sales are difficult.

Personally, I think the interest rate cut has come quietly. #降息预测