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$BTC talk about BTC’s future走势

Since the 1-hour indicators are bullish this Friday, while the medium-term indicators suggest a pullback, and overall the indicators are in a lagging state, the market has moved through this phase where it trades sideways to “cover” an overstretched move. Of course, the resistance level at 60800 is also a major factor.

Last night, I actually expected a breakout from 60500 toward the 61300 area. This level is the 1-hour EMA double-channel resistance, and it is also the candlestick resistance. It happens to line up with the 4-hour Bollinger middle band. Then, with price oscillating in the small range between 61500 and 59500, it perfectly plays into the market’s long/short mindset. However, if the price breaks down below 58000—and given that the market tested the lows three times—this definitely lured quite a few low-altitude retail traders into the trade. Those people won’t be “bailed out” or able to get their positions back, but the big players didn’t push BTC to 61300. Instead, SOL kept surging nonstop. Honestly, that’s a bit hard to understand. Still, the gains you can take should be taken—especially at a time like this, you absolutely can’t overstay out of greed.

At the moment, the medium-term indicators have largely turned bullish and nearly played out, and they themselves have a lagging characteristic. The long-term side is also lagging, but for now it’s still bullish. Last night’s move from the 60000 mark down to 58400 succeeded in pulling the market’s upward momentum apart. As a result, the bullish 1-hour signal’s release ended—you can’t even push up to 60800. That pullback also created a lot of resistance against the medium-term indicators pulling back toward 61300. So, for the whole board, it’s not good to directly predict whether the next move is up or down.

Overall: it’s absolutely impossible for the whole board to directly produce an upward trend. More likely, it will remain in a grinding/chopping phase. In such conditions, the bottom short positions must be cleared. Therefore, the probability is that it will continue with sideways to slightly upward “overextension.” Unless on Monday there’s another positive macro catalyst—for example, the kind of诱多 (baiting-for-bullish sentiment) behavior seen with the recent US-Iran peace talks over the past couple of weeks. Will a similar catalyst appear again? We don’t know. As long as the bulls keep taking the positions, otherwise it will be difficult to drop again to 58000.

June 27th, Monday: market-wide indicators restart. Wednesday: the monthly indicators restart. During this time, the risk coefficient is very high—futures trading must be cautious. Spot is still observing; no rush.

To be honest, this is the first time in my life that I couldn’t determine the market’s true direction through advance analysis and prediction. It shows that the market is hiding some trap or “mischief.”

Finally, congratulations—on this week’s contracts: 100% win rate!

As mentioned back in April, in May and June the U.S. stock market would most likely be locked in a high-level sideways range. The AI narrative has inflated market valuations, but due to the midterm election in November, it also can’t crash hard. That’s why the overly extended sideways consolidation has dragged on too long for too long—after that, stocks still need to rise.

Coincidentally, after the CPI data was released, part of the sell-off in U.S. stocks and gold sent 💰 flows into the crypto market. This helped prevent a BTC crash. The bull-trap behavior also made BTC fall more slowly, while at the same time harvesting the market. Ultimately, the 💰 still needs to flow back into the U.S. stock market to prop it up.

This is how institutions operate: they protect the effect of preventing excessive volatility in U.S. stocks, safeguard BTC’s value as well, and at the same time harvest the crypto market—killing three birds with one stone.

I just don’t understand why BTC short positions were liquidated for $120 million, and yet there wasn’t much of a pullback—58,000 to 60,700, only ~2,700. I really can’t make sense of it.

At this point in the development of the crypto market, there are still so many brainless, unhinged players. It’s tragic.

Finally: once again, respect to the long side

$BTC Turns out the lower the “margin” you choose, the smaller the percentage profit, 🤭🤭🤭

If it breaks below 62200, watch 60500; if 60500 breaks, watch the 59000–61800 pullback. Then if it breaks below 59000, go toward the 58000 area, and then wait for the pullback.

Actually, I’ve looked through the whole market very clearly. My earlier analysis and predictions were spot on. But when trading contracts, the closer it gets to these extreme low levels, you must act rationally.

Missing out isn’t scary—getting it wrong means you’re done for.

#合约交易

$BTC nailed it!

$BTC released massive short energy three times in a row, yet the candlestick never broke the support level. This shows how heavy the bearish sentiment is in the market. If we’re going to see a drop, it requires some bulls to step in and absorb the selling pressure from the whales to support BTC's value.

From the grind following the 614 CPI data release to a drop down to 67200 and then to the lowest point on June 18 at 62200, we saw a rebound from 62200 to 65600, another drop to 61800, and now we’re grinding again. The bearish sentiment has surged during the decline from 65600, leading to panic as traders worry about a potential bullish trend.

In reality, looking at the overall market movement, candlestick positions, and indicators, it’s clear that the whales are intentionally protecting BTC's value. Even if it dips, they want to bait the bulls into buying, preventing BTC from plummeting too quickly and protecting the crypto market.

After the peace talks between the U.S. and Iran were announced last Monday morning and this Monday morning, we saw a surge followed by a downturn. This is the main upward wave, designed to entice the bulls, but with a high percentage of shorts, heavy positions, and stop-loss orders will get taken out.

I personally believe that right now, the whales are more focused on maintaining market value—the harvesting of profits is just a side effect. If the baiting of bulls is very successful, then prices will inevitably drop, and those bulls will be the transitional force when the market shifts from bearish to bullish.

From an indicator and candlestick analysis perspective, the highs are under pressure while the lows aren't moving up. If this continues to consolidate, the space will only get squeezed tighter. We are currently seeing a classic consolidation pattern that leads to a drop. The triangle formation has reached its limit, meaning the whales' baiting hasn’t achieved perfection, and they will eventually choose to take a decisive action, leading to a one-sided market trend. This will disrupt the current bottom structure of the market, but it’s still too early for this to happen. The whales are still looking to reduce their positions to achieve a successful baiting before they exit.

This period is crucial for retail traders. It may seem like there’s not much volatility, but entering at the wrong time or direction could be disastrous.

Finally, I want to emphasize that from a medium to long-term perspective and based on the overall market indicators, there is still room for a drop, and the highs are under pressure. Whether it’s a consolidation leading to a drop, slight bearish consolidation, or a successful baiting followed by a crash, it’s all tied to bearish outcomes. We have no reason to position ourselves in spot trading or bullish contracts.

This is my personal analysis—please consider it with caution.

#IndicatorTechnical

$BTC Everything is under control!

The market for $BTC is set to drop at any moment, and the last week's low at 62200 is definitely going to be breached. Our first target is 60500, and as for whether we’ll break below the new low of 59000, we’ll keep that on the table. Once we hit the 60500 mark, I'll provide further analysis.

$BTC #指标技术 💪💪💪

$BTC For two consecutive weeks, it looks like the whales want to make some moves on Mondays, which indicates the main upward wave. The main intention is to bait the bulls and simultaneously liquidate heavy short positions with stop-losses, thereby reducing the extent of the BTC drop and protecting its global influence and value.

After this morning's pump, we saw a slight high-level consolidation, which indicates that the whales are waiting for changes in the long-short ratio. If the targets aren't met, there will be a second wave of main pumps. But it's important to note that the resistance levels above are being pressured: the 4-hour EMA and the daily Bollinger Bands upper band resistance are at 66200-66500, and the candlestick resistance is at 65000-65000. For resistance levels, this is considered downward pressure, while support levels are trending upwards. This narrowing range means that we're currently experiencing a candlestick triangle compression pattern.

With the mid-term indicators showing downward pressure, the daily Bollinger Bands middle and upper bands are in a downtrend. Overall, the mid to long-term trend indicates that the market is under pressure, and the only support with some strength is the daily Bollinger Bands lower band and the candlestick pattern support at 60500.

Currently, the overall market indicators still have bearish potential.

Note: The low point of last week's pullback around 62200 needs to be broken; we're currently at 60500. As for whether it will break to a new low, let's keep that probability in mind and analyze once the price hits 60500.

#Indicators

$BTC The US-Iran negotiations are just back-and-forth with no real outcomes, all just for show, and in the end, it's just a lot of finger-pointing.

Seeing both sides at a standstill, I, a self-proclaimed crypto trader known as Little Zhang, am ready to jump into the fray. Next meeting, I'm bringing some spicy Wei Long snacks and Luosifen to the table to whet their appetites. Once their appetites are whetted, the chances of a blow-up go sky-high. If we can't reach an agreement, we might as well just split and go back to our corners to go hard at it.
#美伊和平协议

The market has been choppy, oscillating below 64000 before flipping to a downtrend. Then Israel dropped a bombshell, and the price suddenly surged, breaking through 64000 to hit 64380. At this point, the market is panicking, fearing a one-way bullish trend.

Right now, the sentiment for a bottom reversal is gradually rising. Personally, I think it’s too early to discuss outcomes because the overall market indicators don’t support this analysis.

From a mid-to-long-term perspective, the price will likely return to around 62300 before bouncing back to 67500, or it could break below 62300 and drop to 59000, or even set a new low. The mid-range indicators suggest it doesn't have the momentum to shoot straight up to 67500 at this time.

Additionally, since the overall market indicators still have bearish potential, I don't care how often the news comes out to stir emotions.

$BTC #指标技术

The alarm went off, and I checked—it's Friday class time! 😂😂😂

With the Dragon Boat Festival and feeling under the weather, I'm gearing up to hit the market full throttle next week.

In this long bear market, the downtrend hasn’t been a straight shot; there have been multiple bounces and fluctuations, thanks to countless bulls stepping up and holding the line. They’ve stood firm against the torrent of falling prices, acting as a buffer for the market, allowing trend traders to move forward with ease. As the Dragon Boat Festival approaches, I want to express my gratitude and respect to all my fellow bulls. Wishing you peace of mind year after year, and may your endeavors be prosperous and healthy.

$BTC

On Independence Day, the US stock market is closed, and every quarter, options and futures expire on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. So with the US markets closed, this week’s expiry will be moved up to Thursday, which means before 4:30 AM Beijing time, there will be peak intervals around 3-4 AM.

At this time, the US stocks are bound to crash hard.

As for BTC, the indicators are bearish. Will it be affected by the US market crash? Or will the institutions in the US sell off their funds, causing a liquidity influx into the crypto market just like during the CPI? Will US stocks and gold crash, while BTC rallies?

Looking at the overall market, the whales have already made a passive move, pushing BTC from 63600 to 67200. They can’t push it up further now, and it’s rare to bait the market with news of a peace agreement for more retail investors to catch the falling knife. They have achieved their goal: preventing BTC from crashing hard, protecting its market value while harvesting some profit.

One last thing: even in a bear market, BTC won’t just keep dropping; there has to be some resistance to curb its decline. After all, it’s virtual, unlike gold and US stocks. If BTC crashes too hard, it risks losing global recognition of its value, and then this pig farm will inevitably lose its investment significance. Do you think institutions are willing to let that happen?

So yes, it may drop, but occasionally at certain points, they might slightly bait the bulls to act as a dam. In this, we should thank our fellow bulls around the 67200 mark for catching the dip.

So you didn’t see BTC continue to drop after the CPI release, but rather it was a corrective move. However, this doesn’t affect its continued decline, but the magnitude will definitely slow down.

Still, I’ll say it again: keep an eye on the probability of breaking below 59000 for new lows.

$BTC #options expiry

Due to the character limit on each post, here's the follow-up.

Peace talks are definitely going to face more aggressive negotiations; it won't be smooth sailing. Once the pretty ones don't get the bottom line they want, they'll definitely flip. So institutions will definitely start dumping in the US stock market ahead of time; everyone knows that the US stock market always weighs down the crypto market, and the whales will run ahead of the retail traders.

Last night, I provided a detailed explanation of the entire mid-to-long-term indicators. Everyone will compare this bottom formation with the one after the crash on February 5, 2026, to understand the bottom-building phase, which is characterized by a sideways-up trend, meaning the highs and lows are in a parallel line formation.

Personally, I'm not optimistic. From the 12-hour indicators, the KDJ hitting the bottom has a chance to reverse and drive the MACD golden cross through the zero line, forming an upward trend. However, the daily candlestick patterns and indicators combined are bearish, while the 4-hour Bollinger Bands lower band is being pressed down, and the MACD death cross has broken the zero line. The 6-hour chart still has room for further decline. The overall market indicators still show bearish potential. You can also look at the trading volume; this kind of market often rubs against the 4-hour Bollinger Bands lower band to release bullish energy before dropping again.

Also, think about it: at the high of 67200, currently at a bottom of 63500, can a 2700-point gap trigger a bull run? Not likely. Consider that the difference between 60700 and 67200 is 6500 points. Friends who entered the market early know that in 2024 and 2025, is BTC's daily swing not above 4000? It's basically fluctuating around 5000-6000, right? Because this is the normal crash point spread for BQ. Many people control their trades within this range. At that time, crypto legalization hadn't officially kicked in yet, and institutions were afraid of long nights and many dreams, basically short-term harvesting and then leaving. Unlike now, where the beautiful country recognizes it, and a lot of ETFs are available for purchase, leading to more grinding patterns. But from all this, it's clear that to trigger a bull run, 63500 is insufficient.

In summary: the market is still set to decline. Currently, we are in a range of 63500-64500, oscillating to release bullish energy, but further declines are expected. This can also be interpreted as the daily candlestick pattern of the Bollinger Bands lower band from June 15.

I've said everything I needed to say. As for the technical indicators that shouldn't be disclosed, I can't reveal them; I can only write about them to the best of my ability. I hope this helps you all.

I wrote this straight out without a review, so there might be typos. I just posted it quickly, so if you see any typos, don't laugh, haha.

The above is my personal analysis and insights. Please consider it carefully $BTC

$BTC btc is currently dipping around 63500, which is also the low point from Monday’s early morning drop, the same spot where the peace agreement news between the US and Iran emerged, leading to a reversal and a bounce back up.

The price rallied up to around 67350. I mentioned that 67500 is a crucial watershed, and after it was successfully broken on June 3rd, it pushed towards the 60k mark, which aligns with my previous analysis and predictions.

Now, regarding the surge due to the announcement of the peace agreement, there was a slight shakeout near 66000 to test the market's long and short ratio, and ultimately it surged strongly to 67250, getting stuck at the strong resistance level of 67500.

Looking back, on June 10th, the CPI data revealed the highest values in nearly three years. Although it matched expectations, the reality is that inflation is excessively severe, leading to declines in US stocks and gold, while oil and BTC saw inflows resulting in price rises.

BTC should technically be dropping, but given that BTC had been on a downward trend for the previous two weeks and had broken the new low at 60k, the market was in a bottom consolidation phase. This became capital inflow from institutions selling off in the US stocks and gold; prices were low, leading to a main lift and a harvest wave. From a long-term indicator perspective, especially on the 12-hour chart, it was bearish at 64500, but the market had a strong bullish surge at 5 AM on June 15th due to the peace news.

Last week, the price oscillated from 60700 to 64700 over four days, and by 9 AM on the 12th, it had already lifted to 63900, just 800 points shy of the 64700 high. It’s clear that the whales are aiming for a short-term harvest wave, allowing more spot buyers and bulls to take over the ride, which aims to stabilize BTC against further drops. This is a classic case of poor liquidity, trying to get more retail traders to stabilize the market.

However, this time the market didn't play along, with the majority leaning bearish, leading to the main bullish wave from 63600 to 67200. From an indicator standpoint, such a main bullish wave is somewhat forced; if the short interest at 64500 is massive, the peace agreement news could have easily led to a trap for the bulls with a subsequent dump. The heavy short interest and the lack of bullish buyers are causing this situation.

Before the Fed's interest rate decision is released, anyone with a bit of sense knows there's a high probability it will remain unchanged, with a slim chance of a rate hike and no chance of a rate cut. Given the severe inflation, the US-Iran peace agreement is unlikely to go smoothly due to the conflicting interests of both countries.

Market trends for $BTC are in line with last night's analysis and predictions.

$BTC Long-term indicators are showing bearish signals, while mid-term indicators, like the 4-hour Bollinger Bands, are indicating that the lower band is curving up, the upper band is flat or even tilting down. This means we won't see a sudden drop breaking through the lower band; we need to unleash some bullish energy first. This is somewhat similar to what I mentioned about the May 18th daily candle at 76000, where it retraced before breaking down again. The drop on 518 was about releasing mid-term indicator space before dropping again, while this time it's about releasing short-term plus 1-hour indicator space before dropping. The 518 drop had the overall market indicators supporting a bearish bottom, and this time we have long-term 12-hour and daily indicators showing a bearish bottom as well.