U.S. nonfarm payrolls report shows job market remains resilient
U.S. nonfarm payrolls report shows job market remains resilient July 5th, according to the Wall Street Journal, the U.S. Department of Labor reported on Friday that the United States added 206,000 jobs last month. The unemployment rate rose to 4.1%. Although the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates at their highest level in more than two decades, the report shows that the resilience of the labor market remains. The report shows that U.S. hiring has slowed and the labor market appears to have reached a better balance. The unemployment rate has risen from the multi-decade low of 3.4% hit at the beginning of last year. Average hourly earnings rose 3.9% year-on-year in June, the smallest increase since 2021. Federal Reserve officials are no longer so worried about the overheating of the job market and expect to cut interest rates later this year as long as inflation does not break out, but the still strong job growth does make them feel that they can be more patient before cutting interest rates.
As the Federal Reserve is about to announce its interest rate decision, the latest inflation data showed that price pressures in the United States eased slightly from last month. At 20:30 Beijing time on Wednesday, the U.S. unadjusted CPI annual rate in May was 3.3%, lower than the expected 3.4%, and fell from the previous value of 3.4%, reaching a three-month low; the monthly rate was 0%, the lowest level since July 2022, also lower than the expected 0.1%, and the previous value was 0.30%. The U.S. unadjusted core CPI annual rate in May was 3.4%, lower than the expected 3.5%, and the previous value was 3.6%; the monthly rate was 0.2%, lower than the expected and previous value of 0.3%. After the data was released, the US dollar index plunged 60 points in a short period of time, and the yield on US two-year Treasury bonds fell to 4.693%, the lowest level since April 5. Spot gold continued to rise, reaching $2,340 per ounce, and the intraday increase widened to 1%. Spot silver's intraday increase widened to 3%.
The US CPI unexpectedly cooled across the board in May, and the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September has soared!
As the Federal Reserve is about to announce its interest rate decision, the latest inflation data showed that price pressures in the United States eased slightly from last month. At 20:30 Beijing time on Wednesday, the U.S. unadjusted CPI annual rate in May was 3.3%, lower than the expected 3.4%, and fell from the previous value of 3.4%, reaching a three-month low; the monthly rate was 0%, the lowest level since July 2022, also lower than the expected 0.1%, and the previous value was 0.30%. The U.S. unadjusted core CPI annual rate in May was 3.4%, lower than the expected 3.5%, and the previous value was 3.6%; the monthly rate was 0.2%, lower than the expected and previous value of 0.3%. After the data was released, the US dollar index plunged 60 points in a short period of time, and the yield on US two-year Treasury bonds fell to 4.693%, the lowest level since April 5. Spot gold continued to rise, reaching $2,340 per ounce, and the intraday increase widened to 1%. Spot silver's intraday increase widened to 3%.
The U.S. added far more jobs than expected in May, easing concerns about a slowing labor market and reducing the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
Data released at 20:30 Beijing time on Friday showed that the United States added far more jobs in May than expected, easing concerns about a slowdown in the labor market and reducing the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. The seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 272,000 in May, far exceeding the expected 185,000 and the previous value of 175,000. The unemployment rate in the United States rose to 4% for the first time since January 2022 in May, higher than the expected 3.9%, ending the record of remaining below 4% for 27 consecutive months. The monthly rate of average hourly wages in the United States in May was 0.4%, exceeding the expected 0.3% and the previous value was 0.2%.
Tonight at 20:30, the United States will release the latest non-farm payrolls report. Here is JPMorgan Chase's forecast for the report:
#非农就业数据 , which includes nine scenarios and corresponding market reaction forecasts. Scenario 1: Substantial growth in nonfarm payrolls + strong growth in average hourly earnings In this scenario, the S&P 500 would fall between 0.5% and 1.25% as it eliminates expectations of a September rate cut. Scenario 2: Substantial growth in non-agricultural population + wage growth in line with expectations In this scenario, stagflation concerns would ease and "keep the soft landing narrative alive, potentially turning into a Goldilocks demand for jobs." In this scenario, the S&P 500 would rise 0.5% to 1%. Scenario 3: Substantial growth in non-agricultural employment + weaker-than-expected wage growth
Although inflationary pressures in the eurozone still exist, the European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled at 20:15 Beijing time on Thursday, lowering the three major interest rates to 4.25%, 3.75% and 4.50% respectively. This is the first rate cut since 2019 and the second central bank among G7 member countries to cut interest rates. In addition, the European Central Bank reiterated its plan to reduce the investment portfolio of the emergency anti-epidemic bond purchase program (PEPP) in the second half of 2024. After the ECB's interest rate decision was announced, the euro rose against the dollar in the short term, recovering all the losses during the day and hitting 1.09. The money market had already fully digested the expectation that the central bank would cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its June meeting.
"Small non-agricultural" hit a new low since the beginning of the year! Why is the market indifferent?
On Wednesday, the U.S. ADP employment report, known as the "small non-farm", showed that job growth slowed in May due to a sharp decline in manufacturing. Hiring in the leisure and hotel industry also showed weakness. The number of ADP jobs in the United States increased by 152,000 in May, the smallest increase since January this year, lower than the expected 175,000. The previous value was revised down from 192,000 to 188,000. After the data was released, the US dollar index and spot gold did not fluctuate much in the short term. The yield on two-year US Treasury bonds fell to a new intraday low, but did not fall below Tuesday's low of just below 4.75%; the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell to 4.312%, the lowest level since April 5.
The U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index is one of the important indicators for measuring inflation. Recently, the index has remained at 2.8%, indicating that inflationary pressure has eased. As the 2024 U.S. election approaches, the possibility of interest rate cuts has become the focus of markets and economists.
**PCE index and its impact**
The PCE price index is the Fed's most important inflation indicator because it includes a wider range of consumer goods and service prices and better reflects consumers' true spending. Although the PCE index of 2.8% is still higher than the Fed's 2% target, it is significantly lower than the previous high. This sign of easing could provide the Fed with more policy flexibility.
**Economic background for interest rate cuts**
Although the U.S. economy has shown resilience, it is also facing certain downward pressure. Factors such as slowing consumption growth, sluggish manufacturing and uncertainty in international trade may curb economic expansion. Against this backdrop, interest rate cuts can stimulate economic activity and boost consumer and business confidence.
**Election factors**
The 2024 election will have a profound impact on American politics and economy. Successive governments have hoped to maintain or boost the economy before elections to boost voter support. Cutting interest rates can reduce borrowing costs, stimulate consumption and investment, and help create a favorable economic environment. This policy tool may be used to respond to economic weakness and improve employment and income conditions, thus enhancing the electoral advantage of the ruling party.
**Federal Reserve Considerations**
While political pressure may push for rate cuts, the Fed, as an independent agency, makes decisions primarily based on economic data and expectations. Although the current inflation rate has eased, we still need to observe the trend in the coming months. If economic data supports a rate cut, the Fed may take action before the election, especially if inflation falls further and economic growth weakens.
**Summarize**
The PCE index remaining at 2.8% provides the Federal Reserve with potential room to cut interest rates, especially as the economy faces challenges and the election approaches. However, the final decision still needs to take into account economic data, inflation expectations and the Fed's independence. As the election date approaches, the market and the public will pay close attention to the Fed's movements, expecting its policies to inject new vitality into the economy.#PCE物价指数 #美国大选 #降息预测
#BTC走势分析 As the monthly line and Rabbit PCE are released, a trend convergence is accompanied by the rise of cottage stocks. From the perspective of the recent market, it is in line with the historical trajectory, indicating that a large correction is about to begin. Back to the 57,000 frame, or even 50,800