! ! The market is betting like crazy! Is the Fed's rate cut in September a foregone conclusion?

🔥 On July 9, CME Fed Watch caused a stir! Traders placed bets one after another, predicting that the Fed will take a key step in September - the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is as high as 71.8%! This figure ignited the enthusiasm of the market like a fireball, and the rate cut storm seems to be ready to go!

🤔 However, in the context of such strong expectations of rate cuts, 24.8% of traders still chose to hold their ground, believing that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged, adding a touch of uncertainty to the market.

😲 What's even more surprising is that there are a few warriors who dare to dream. They believe that the Fed may take more radical measures and cut interest rates by 50 basis points. Although the probability is only 3.4%, it is enough to make the market look sideways!

🔍 What will be the Fed's next move? The heartbeat and breathing of the market are tense. This game about interest rates is about to usher in the moment of revelation!

#美联储主席鲍威尔讲话 #美联储利率决议即将公布 #美国大选如何影响加密产业？

At 2.00-2.30 am tomorrow, the Fed's interest rate decision and Powell's speech will be released. Compared with the dot plot released by the Fed in March, the Fed's core view is that three interest rate cuts this year will remain, and there will be three more interest rate cuts in 2025. Since the release, there have been further signs of continued inflation, while the labor market has also performed strongly. Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the May meeting also hinted that interest rates may have to be maintained.
According to a Bloomberg survey, 41% of economists expect the median interest rate forecast to indicate two interest rate cuts in 2024, while 41% expect the median interest rate forecast to indicate only one interest rate cut or no interest rate cut at all. #美联储利率决议即将公布 #美联储降息周期 #美联储主席鲍威尔讲话 #美联储基准利率 #比特币走势分析

Just yesterday, I said it would drop, and today Powell's speech just did this to you. The current price is $99,600, and $BTC has not yet broken the upward trend. For now, we are still bullish, but if it breaks the trend, we need to be cautious.

Next, it is possible that it will still follow the previous analysis of rebounding to reach a new high, or it may still correct with a significant downward trend to 85-87K.

#鲍威尔 #美联储不允许持有比特币 #美联储主席鲍威尔讲话 #加密市场回调 #圣诞行情预测

In fact, it is almost certain that interest rates will remain stable in August, and the focus of market attention has shifted to the speech of Fed Chairman Powell, whether he will tighten the policy hawkishly or turn to dovish easing. If the Fed decides to open the easing gate, then this action will most likely not stop at a single rate cut, but will herald the official start of the rate cut cycle.

Some analysts even boldly predict that there may be three rate cuts this year, each set at 25 basis points. However, all these speculations must be based on the final decision of the Fed meeting tonight, and the market's reaction and future trends will also move accordingly.
#美联储何时降息？
#美联储主席鲍威尔讲话

On June 23, will the interest rate cut be imminent, and will the bull market follow? Don't be fooled by those so-called "big Vs"! They often bring out complex concepts to mislead people, just to achieve the purpose of charging fees and cutting leeks.

In fact, the logic of the currency circle is quite simple: when big funds come in, the price goes up; when big funds go out, the price goes down. If you want to make a profit from investing in cryptocurrencies, you must first understand the macro economy.

Why does the US dollar interest rate cut cause the currency circle to rise wildly?

1. There is a seesaw effect between commodity and stock prices;

2. The US dollar interest rate cut will cause commodity prices in the countries that release water to rise, funds to flow into developing countries, and their stock markets to fall. However, many "big Vs" have contradictory analyses, and they don't understand economic principles at all.

The US dollar interest rate hike will put the relevant economies into crisis, the exchange rate will become unstable, the US dollar will appreciate, and global funds will flow into the United States, and then be allocated to giants through treasury bonds to invest in US stocks. The interest rate cut is just the opposite.

The biggest risk of the US dollar interest rate cut is that funds may flow out, and the US's response is to export force to reduce financial risks. Every time the interest rate is cut, there will often be violent actions internationally, as was the case in the past five Middle East wars.

#美联储何时降息？ #美联储利率决议即将公布 #美联储主席鲍威尔讲话
$UNFI $PEOPLE $1000SATS
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Several key elements of Powell's speech are analyzed. It is impossible to raise interest rates. The market needs to slowly increase liquidity! Powell hinted at a rate cut at this time? Bitcoin and Ethereum ushered in a sharp rebound when Powell announced the suspension of interest rate cuts and spoke, but then continued to fall. However, both US stocks and US bonds ushered in gains and did not continue to fall. What does this mean? It shows that there are still short orders in the currency circle that have not been profited and left. The dealer still has contracts that have not been cleared, so continue to suppress the market. So let's summarize Powell's speech. First of all, in the future, when the unemployment rate rises by 0.2%, the interest rate will be cut. The unemployment rate data released now is the same as last month, 3.8%. So how should the market choose in the future? The unemployment rate data should be focused on. Compromise Second, Powell denied the interest rate hike. Powell will threaten the market with words. If there is any possibility, it will not be very confirmed. However, this time he directly denied the possibility of an interest rate hike, so those who are thinking about raising interest rates should not dream. Dove Third, confirming the slowdown of balance sheet reduction, but it does not mean that the magnitude of the balance sheet reduction will be smaller than expected. This sentence is a bit confusing. In plain words, although I have slowed down the balance sheet reduction, don't be too idealistic. It will not make the market come alive all at once. (Similar to the patient who should drink porridge first instead of big fish and meat) Dove

Fourth, the inflation level this year is very strong. If the labor market remains strong and sustainable, then the interest rate cut will be postponed this year. Hawk

Fifth, given the current situation, I think our policy stance is in a good position. (In plain words, I feel good about myself, our strategy is good, and I am OK again)

Finally, the Fed unanimously agreed that the current round of interest rates will continue to be suspended. The current situation of encryption is that the macro danger has passed and we can wait for the dealer to close the net. #鲍威尔说了什么 #美联储主席鲍威尔讲话
#BTC回调才会更好的上涨 $BTC $ETH

Expectations of rate cuts are rekindled, but the trend of Bitcoin is still unclear

The number of first-time unemployment claims in the United States hit a new high that week, which far exceeded market expectations. In theory, it should trigger market concerns about the slowdown in US economic growth, thereby increasing the possibility of future rate cuts. Judging from the reaction of the financial market, the US dollar index weakened, while the Nasdaq 100 index futures and the S&P 500 index futures both rose slightly, and spot gold also rose in the short term, all of which reflected the market's reassessment of expectations for rate cuts.
However, the Bitcoin market seemed indifferent to this data. There may be two reasons behind this: First, the Federal Reserve's specific April inflation data has not yet been released, and the single data of the number of unemployment benefits recipients is not enough to form a strong expectation of rate cuts; second, the Bitcoin market has recently experienced a halving event and is in a volatile market at the same stage in history. Its price trend is affected by many factors, including market sentiment, technical performance, and the macroeconomic environment.
Therefore, investors do not need to care too much about the short-term rise and fall of Bitcoin. In the case of a complex and changeable macroeconomic environment and unclear policy trends, investors should remain rational, pay attention to market dynamics, and wait for large-scale opportunities before entering the market. At the same time, it is also necessary to pay attention to risk management to avoid losses caused by blindly following the trend or impulsive trading.
#BTC走势分析 #美国4月CPI通胀数据即将公布 #美联储主席鲍威尔讲话 $BTC $ETH $SOL

Tonight, the United States will release key interest rate decisions and welcome the policy statement of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, which the market is looking forward to.

Previously, many major events have been settled, including the resolution of the Mt. Gox problem, the proper handling of matters related to the Gemini platform, and the successful conclusion of the German government's confiscation of BTC.

Looking forward, our attention will focus on three core issues: the possible trend of the US interest rate cut policy, the progress of the FTX platform cash repayment plan, and the potential possibility of Bitcoin being included in the US strategic reserve assets, all of which will have a profound impact on the market structure.

#美联储主席鲍威尔讲话
#美联储何时降息？

#美联储主席鲍威尔讲话 今晚利多还是利空

Big event!

Big news!

End of the petrodollar agreement: A sea change in the global economy

Last Sunday, a major event occurred in the international economic and financial system of this century. The 50-year-old petrodollar agreement between Saudi Arabia and the United States was announced to end. This event may affect the entire dollar system, threaten the dollar's international reserve currency status, and then push up domestic inflation and borrowing costs in the United States, affecting every ordinary person who holds dollars or dollar-denominated assets.

The dollar's status as a world reserve currency has given the United States superpowers of economic stability and rising asset prices, but all this will change after the end of the petrodollar agreement. Domestic inflation in the United States may rise, borrowing costs will increase, and the economy will face challenges.

The end of the petrodollar is part of a larger trend, and many countries have gradually abandoned the use of the dollar in international settlements and oil transactions. This may lead to the end of the United States' global financial dominance and the transfer of international financial hegemony.

For ordinary people, we need to pay attention to the impact of this event on life and wealth. In terms of investment, we need to be more cautious, diversify risks, and pay attention to other investment opportunities. At the same time, we also need to pay attention to changes in the global economy and adapt to the new economic environment.

This event marks a huge shift in the global economy. We need to pay close attention to future developments and be prepared to respond.
$NOT $PEPE $UNI
#美联储利率决议即将公布 #美联储降息周期 #美联储主席鲍威尔讲话 #美联储基准利率

The market is currently trading on the positive news of the Fed's 50 basis point rate cut. This wave of daily level is also V-ed up. I originally thought that Japan might raise interest rates to cooperate with the Fed's backstab, but it was cancelled today by irresistible factors. We don't know if there is any inside information, but since the market has already traded this fact and the Fed's rate cut is also a long-term positive, there is no need for us to speculate whether the US economy is in recession. From the market point of view, it is still in the downward channel of the bull flag. Will it continue to fluctuate or break through directly? Only when it comes out can a long section of unilateral market appear. The short-term key point is 65000-65500. For spot, brothers who don't have a bottom position should consider buying some high-quality altcoin spot after the callback. Whether the follow-up is oscillation, callback, or direct breakthrough, holding one hand and building positions in batches is always lower than chasing. Many altcoins have broken through the short-term falling structure. Under the favorable conditions of BTC, the market generally believes that there may be a altcoin season in September and October. Keep an eye on it. #美联储主席鲍威尔讲话 #日本加息

Federal Reserve Rate Cut Boosts, US Stocks and Bitcoin Hit New Highs
🚀 The Federal Reserve announced a continued rate cut of 25 basis points, and the market reacted enthusiastically, with US stocks and Bitcoin both breaking new highs, and the upward trend shows no signs of stopping, promising a bright future.
🌐 Ethereum $ETH is rising strongly, having surpassed the 2800 mark, aiming directly for 3500, and after some adjustment, it is expected to challenge 4000. The Ethereum baton is about to be passed, and the short squeeze rally has already begun; investors should not exit easily.
🚀 $SOL is closely following, just 10u away from breaking the previous high, with the second and third positions gearing up for action, and the market potential is limitless.
🕰️ The rest is left to time. Let us look forward to the exciting performance of the market together!
#美联储主席鲍威尔讲话

This round of bull market will start in November 2022, and it is said that it will go through five waves.

The first wave is 15,000-30,000, and the retracement is 20-30% to about 25,000.

The second wave is 25,000-50,000 and retracement to about 40,000.

The third wave is 40,000-74,000 and retracement to about 49,000.

The fourth wave is now 49,000-110,000, and it is now fluctuating between 90,000 and 100,000. If the interest rate cut is announced, this wave will basically come to an end and enter a volatile downward trend. At this time, the secondary market will fall back and the primary effect will begin. It will fall back to about 80,000 at the end of January.

The fifth wave will start from February to July 25. The Fed's expectations may not be too suspenseful. Then the fifth wave will start from 7.0~7.5, and may reach about 150,000. This may be the last wave, and the bull market cycle will end.

According to the data of each wave, it can be seen that each wave will double and then go down by 20~30%.
What to do after the bull market ends? We don't know either, so let's wait and see.

At this time, the 4th wave of secondary market began to fall, and the market in the primary market should have almost started.
Musk-themed puppies in the primary market, as one of the strongest concepts on the Ethereum chain, are emerging, and their future development potential is huge. They may have the opportunity to become the next shib. Now you can pay close attention and in-depth research, and look forward to an early ambush.

The above does not constitute investment advice. There are risks in the currency circle, and you must do a good job of risk control.
#加密市场回调 #圣诞行情预测 #美联储主席鲍威尔讲话 #puppies这个具备百倍千倍的潜质，马斯克i
#meme季节即将到来 $BTC $BNB $ETH

Summary of the speech delivered by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell last night:

Powell said:
The economy has not been damaged by the (current) interest rate level. My personal expectation is that interest rates will not fall to very, very low levels before the epidemic. We are now considering inflation and employment risks. The inflation work has not been completed, but the risks of the Fed's two goals are more balanced. Achieving the 2% inflation target is crucial.

Analyzing from the content of the speech: There is a little bit of negative news, but as time goes by, the small negative news will slowly digest, because once the trend is formed, no one can change it. The news will only affect short-term fluctuations. The big cycle is still a bull market. The big pie is expected to be $186,000 in 25 years. #财经解读 #BTC #美联储主席鲍威尔讲话

#美联储主席鲍威尔讲话 Public welfare strategy: Lao Bao simply inserted the pin up and down once in his speech. Try to open a long order today. If you buy more at the current price, you can get 57,600. If the closing line closes at 57800+ at 11 o'clock, the success rate of this long order will be much higher.

The current price is 57600, long position, cover position 56500, stop loss 55300
Take profit at three positions: 58658, 59775, and 60420.

Now you can try to grab the rebound, a few public welfare orders every week, detailed contract strategy, spot layout, 🔍top post

In the current currency circle,

The market is controlling the price space of Bitcoin in various ways, which is already very obvious.

As long as there is very good news, there must be a bad news.

This is also to encourage funds that have not yet entered the market to enter the market faster, increase market liquidity, and force undetermined funds to withdraw.

This is done to avoid over-consumption before the bull market arrives, so that when the bull market arrives, the market momentum is strong enough, just like the lid of the pressure cooker is opened.

At that time, the price will rise as fast as a fountain, and most of the increase may be completed within three months.
As for when it will rise, no one knows, but between October and February of the following year, Bitcoin will definitely break through.

The sideways market may be under pressure for another month or two, and the limit will come, otherwise the rebound will be unstoppable. Wait patiently for the market to explode.

#美联储何时降息？ #比特币大会 #超级央行周 #美国大选如何影响加密产业？ #美联储主席鲍威尔讲话

In the cryptocurrency circle, you need to be strategic when taking risks. You need to set a stop loss point for yourself and know when to withdraw.
Bottom-fishing seems to make money quickly, but if you follow the trend, your money will easily go down the drain.
I am Dafu.
If you don't know how to screen strong coins, I suggest you follow me. Come find me.
Whether it is spot or Heyue, a slight move may be your limit. The opportunity is very short.
You must seize it! Success is not based on luck!
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