Several key elements of Powell's speech are analyzed. It is impossible to raise interest rates. The market needs to slowly increase liquidity! Powell hinted at a rate cut at this time? Bitcoin and Ethereum ushered in a sharp rebound when Powell announced the suspension of interest rate cuts and spoke, but then continued to fall. However, both US stocks and US bonds ushered in gains and did not continue to fall. What does this mean? It shows that there are still short orders in the currency circle that have not been profited and left. The dealer still has contracts that have not been cleared, so continue to suppress the market. So let's summarize Powell's speech. First of all, in the future, when the unemployment rate rises by 0.2%, the interest rate will be cut. The unemployment rate data released now is the same as last month, 3.8%. So how should the market choose in the future? The unemployment rate data should be focused on. Compromise Second, Powell denied the interest rate hike. Powell will threaten the market with words. If there is any possibility, it will not be very confirmed. However, this time he directly denied the possibility of an interest rate hike, so those who are thinking about raising interest rates should not dream. Dove Third, confirming the slowdown of balance sheet reduction, but it does not mean that the magnitude of the balance sheet reduction will be smaller than expected. This sentence is a bit confusing. In plain words, although I have slowed down the balance sheet reduction, don't be too idealistic. It will not make the market come alive all at once. (Similar to the patient who should drink porridge first instead of big fish and meat) Dove
Fourth, the inflation level this year is very strong. If the labor market remains strong and sustainable, then the interest rate cut will be postponed this year. Hawk
Fifth, given the current situation, I think our policy stance is in a good position. (In plain words, I feel good about myself, our strategy is good, and I am OK again)
Finally, the Fed unanimously agreed that the current round of interest rates will continue to be suspended. The current situation of encryption is that the macro danger has passed and we can wait for the dealer to close the net. #鲍威尔说了什么 #美联储主席鲍威尔讲话
