2024.11.5 Market Trend Analysis

The daily and weekly charts of Bitcoin have not changed much; the daily indicators are still at a high level and need to be corrected. The weekly trend is upward, and the 4-hour level continues to see a downward shift in the bottom, showing signs of a shrinking decline. There is a slight demand for a rebound in the 4-hour chart. Currently, most investors are in a wait-and-see state, as can be seen from the fluctuations over the past two days. We will wait for the results of the U.S. presidential election tomorrow; once the market chooses a direction, we can follow the trend and trade accordingly! #BTC

Trump will definitely win, what do you think? The plan has been arranged:

1. November 5 (voting day);

2. November 6 (preliminary election results);

3. November 7 to December 5 (Is there a fight between the two parties? Market turmoil?);

4. December 5 to January 20 (market stability, waiting for Trump to take office and launch new policies); #BTC

2024.11.4 Market Evening Analysis

Bitcoin has been in a state of oscillation and decline over the weekend, with the market consistently operating below 70,000, showing a weak overall trend. Yesterday, the price tested lower twice, and in the evening it fell to around 67,400, subsequently rebounding and recovering part of the decline, currently fluctuating around 68,800.

From a daily chart perspective, the K-line has experienced five consecutive days of decline, with the Bollinger Bands slightly opening. The current price is operating around the middle band, and the MACD indicator shows the fast and slow lines forming a death cross, accompanied by two significant red histogram bars. At the same time, the KDJ three lines are showing a diverging downward trend, indicating a significant weak structure. The upward rebound energy in the short term has weakened, and overall bearish sentiment remains strong, suggesting that a further decline may be needed before stabilization. The larger cycle at the weekly level is upward, and the daily level is at most short-term bearish; patience is required! #BTC

Four years in the cryptocurrency market is one cycle, divided into five stages:

First Stage: Market Hits Bottom and Bounces Back (This August touched 48000) BTC finally starts to rise continuously when retail investors expect it to drop lower, excellent leading altcoins multiply, and hot money rapidly shifts among various narratives.

Second Stage: Market Grows Amid Doubts (Currently) BTC finally breaks through the consolidation area, bears are continuously cleared out, low market cap and low liquidity altcoins are quickly pulled up, on-chain transactions show many profit opportunities, projects with strong fundamentals are sought after (sui reaches new highs).

Third Stage: Market Starts FOMO (In a few weeks to a few months) BTC breaks through the psychological market price of 73000 dollars, altcoins stagnate and even pull back, BTC continues to break previous highs at an unimaginable pace. Then funds flow back into altcoins, leading to a surge in many altcoins. The market is extremely optimistic about certain leading projects with strong narratives, excellent token designs, powerful flywheel effects, and soaring on-chain data see the most exaggerated increases.

Fourth Stage: Market Peak Period (At some point in 2025) Even vegetable sellers are recommending cryptocurrencies to you, everyone is frantically discussing the great opportunities in the cryptocurrency market, and large amounts of funds begin to flow into simple MEME projects and extremely marketed low-quality projects. Cherish this phase which lasts very briefly, as it is also the best time for you to cash out on your altcoins.

Fifth Stage: Market Crash Wealth is once again transferred, and blockchain is deemed a scam! #BTC

The K-line pattern of Ethereum is clearly oscillating at the bottom, failing to break through the previous high of 2588. The upward selling pressure trend is quite severe, making it difficult to rise or fall. The technical indicator MACD shows that both DIF and DEA are in negative territory, with the histogram in a green state, indicating that the bearish momentum has not yet finished and there is still potential for a downward pullback in the market.

The relative strength index RSI is currently close to the oversold zone but has not yet entered it. There is a short-term demand for a rebound, so there is no rush to exit. We will see if the market can continue to break 2500 to challenge the upper resistance level. The trend indicator EMA shows the price below EMA7 and is gradually approaching EMA30, indicating a weak short-term trend with insufficient bullish momentum. The activity level of trading volume has weakened; after a significant drop, the trading volume has not effectively followed up, indicating a lack of bearish momentum as well. This situation, where both bullish and bearish momentum are insufficient, will lead to a prolonged sideways box pattern with minimal fluctuations. Conservative traders can wait for stabilization before entering. Aggressive traders can enter in batches! #ETH

It's too difficult, the market no longer has funds entering altcoins, BTC is fluctuating and ETH wants to rise but can't drive the sluggish altcoins.

The monthly line has closed, and a strong bullish candle has been confirmed. Regardless of whether there will be a pullback today or how much it will pull back, it does not affect the strong bullish close of the monthly line. The daily level showed a small bearish candle after a spike yesterday, and today it is warming up around 73000. It's not very certain whether the high can be established, but the risk factor will increase.

The monthly line for ETH won't be as strong as BTC. The monthly line has closed with a small bullish candle, but it doesn't show as much strength. Yesterday, BTC was pulling back while ETH was rebounding to catch up.

BTC is rebounding, but ETH is starting to decline again. Altcoins are not following BTC; when BTC rises, altcoins do not rise; when BTC falls, altcoins drop. Only when ETH is rebounding can altcoins show some good signs. #BTC

The pancake surged to 73620, nearing historical highs, seemingly on the way to the stars and the sea, but unexpectedly, a wave of plummeting shattered countless dreams. Due to the high ratio of long to short positions, a sharp drop occurred, resulting in $195 million in long liquidations and $2603.24 in short liquidations within 24 hours. Currently, support is around $68000, which is the 0.382 level. There's no need to worry; the bullish trend is still intact. Although a pullback has occurred, this is normal, as a bull market will not only rise without falling. It is recommended that everyone wait until the decline stops before entering! #BTC

2024.10.31 Cryptocurrency Macro and News Analysis:

From on-chain data, stablecoins have been in a state of inflow from October 24 to 30, but have not broken through the previous highs of the past two months. The funds have all flowed into BTC, with no spillover effect to altcoins yet.
From October 28 to today, over 10,000 BTC have flowed out of exchanges.

It seems BTC is still set to rise, but how much of a pullback will it have?
The cost for whales and large capital from ETFs is $55,000, while the current price is $72,000, yielding a profit of 30%. Over the past 10 years, the average annual increase of the S&P 500 index has exceeded 12%. If the BTC price reaches $82,000, their profits will exceed 50%, which is equivalent to achieving a growth rate in BTC that is more than five times that of the stock market index in one year; it's estimated that they will begin to take profits.

So if it rises close to $82,000, BTC may experience a significant pullback. Currently, from on-chain data, BTC is still flowing out, so the risk is not high.

Regarding the U.S. elections, this year's presidential election may be the most closely contested in history. The two candidates are evenly matched, and in seven swing states, polls show their support is nearly equal, with all differences within the margin of error. It is still uncertain who will win.

Last night's small non-farm payroll data recorded 233,000, the largest increase since July 2023, a slight negative. Strong employment affects the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. Tonight at 8:30, the PCE will be released, and tomorrow night at 8:30, non-farm payroll data will be published.

If the non-farm payroll data over the next two days does not cause significant negative impact, BTC may build up strength and potentially break through $74,000.

The next two months are the most important months of the year for you!

1. When the trend comes, don't be afraid to be greedy; when the trend is gone, you must be in awe.
(It's better to act early than late on trends)
2. The market will soon show its charm, and the imitations will too.
3. Remember: human nature does not change, and neither does the market.
4. There is nothing new in the financial market #BTC

Improve a little bit every day. Ethereum pressure is between 2750-2780, and it can still be held. Currently, the daily MACD and Ant Channel are about to golden cross and resonate. Bitcoin has not yet broken through the historical high, and a strong breakout is expected this week! Hold coins and wait for the rise~ #BTC #ETH

It seems ETH won't explode for me, Bitcoin has broken through, and Ethereum is also set to catch up, disappointing many. It officially started the rolling warehouse mode, challenging 70,000 U (500,000 RMB) to reach 200,000 U (1,500,000 RMB). How long do you think it will take to achieve this? #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥

A few days ago, the big pancake surged but did not break the 70,000 mark, which is not an easy task for the market makers. Once it breaks through, the group that buys on dips will definitely exit, and these are consequences that the market makers cannot predict. Many believe it will break through, but if it does not and instead experiences a downward correction, it will cause many people to become passive. Observing the market situation at the 67,000 position is also a good thing for the market makers!

Currently, there is not much profit space for both short and long positions. Once the market makers see the market's emotional feedback, they will immediately start to change the market trend. Regardless of how the market changes, both long and short harvesting operations are the most cost-effective for the market makers!

Trump reiterated that if elected again, he would significantly lower interest rates. What signal does this send?

Trumpism aims to achieve "reindustrialization" and prolong the dollar's hegemony through "national monopoly capitalism + international financial monopoly capitalism" to address today's dilemmas and crises in the United States, enhance its strength, and maintain global dominance.

Before virtual capitalism (international financial monopoly capitalism), the core and main part of financial capital consisted of lending capital. However, in today's virtual capitalism, the core and main part of financial capital is virtual capital, while traditional financial capital, represented by lending capital, is gradually declining.

Today, as the United States continues to decline and capital accumulation becomes increasingly difficult, the divide and opposition between the "virtual capital group" and the "traditional financial capital group" are becoming more severe. "Trumpism" is a potent remedy prescribed by the "traditional financial capital group" for the United States, which is mired in difficulties and crises. However, under the current conditions where Western institutional culture is deteriorating, contradictions are intensifying, and the Third World is rising strongly and beginning to surpass, the hegemony of the Western world is starting to crumble. It is likely that "Trumpism" will struggle to reverse the downward trend in the United States, or it may lead to a complete failure. #特朗普 #BTC

Yesterday I opened a 6x long position on Ethereum, amidst various noises: some say I'm slapping my own face, some say I'm going to be liquidated. Here’s a report for everyone: currently, I haven't lost much, still holding on? The loss is only 7100u (50,000 RMB) for making 160,000 U (1,000,000 RMB) when Ethereum reaches 10,000 USD. I'm not worried at all; it seems you all are more worried than I am 😀😀 #ETH

Talk about my views

Currently, only the Bitcoin SOL bullish pattern has not been broken, and the bullish trend remains. Many other altcoins have shown a bearish trend, so in the near future, funds may be more focused on these stronger varieties. Therefore, my overall strategy will focus on BTC and SOL, while waiting for other altcoins to show bottom patterns before considering them. Recently, market fluctuations have been considerable, and before the daily and weekly market trends start, there must be a significant washout of longs and shorts, which makes operation difficult. I hope everyone does not let the recent actions of the major players affect their mindset, as they may fall into the major players' traps. Everyone must maintain a good mindset; the future is bright! #BTC #SOL

Everyone is not optimistic about ETH, and more people are optimistic about SOL, but Feilong wants to open a 6x leverage at 2512. The first goal is to get the previous high of 4,800 US dollars, and the second goal is to get 10,000 US dollars. Do you think I can succeed! #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥

There are 10 days left until the election, and many people are concerned about the impact of the U.S. election in 10 days on the cryptocurrency market?
Some bloggers say things like "If Trump is elected, it's good news and a big rise," and "If Harris is elected, it's bad news and a big drop"—such statements are somewhat one-sided. I believe that regardless of who is elected in the end, it won't change the result of the "bull market"; the impact is more on the short-term trends, and there is no long-term effect!
Do you agree? #BTC

If we start counting from the lowest point, which coin in this bull market is likely to increase more than 100 times?
A: SOL
B: RAY
C: TURBO
D: PEPE
E: WIF
F: ARKM
G:_______? #BTC