飞龙财经

3.4 Major Events in the Cryptocurrency World

1. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen: We are determined to lower interest rates;
2. Vietnam plans to launch a legal framework for digital assets by the end of March;
3. Crypto market maker Flowdesk completes $102 million financing;
4. Metaplanet completes approximately $87 million financing to increase Bitcoin holdings;
5. Aave's new proposal aims to update the token economic model and initiate a buyback plan;
6. Infrared completes $16 million Series A financing, led by Framework Ventures;
7. Ark Invest purchased 38,865 shares of Coinbase stock on Monday and sold $8.2 million worth of ARKB;
8. FTX/Alameda today un-staked 3.03 million SOL, of which 24,799 SOL has been transferred to Binance.#BTC

The current market situation is still not optimistic; it's better to wait for the right side to appear! My suggestion is to hold a maximum of 30% in spot positions, or stay in cash. For contracts, only trade intra-day short positions on BTC, ETH, BNB, and SOL, and strictly set take-profit and stop-loss for each trade.

Currently, brothers holding spot positions are heavily trapped and suffering significant losses, with many experiencing unrealized losses of up to 80%, or even more than 90%. Contracts have also seen both long and short positions getting wiped out in the past few days. The market manipulators have taken advantage of news to control the market. The day before yesterday there was good news, and many said a bull market was coming, with countless long positions opened. Then yesterday, bad news hit, resulting in a massive crash, and almost all long positions were wiped out. The current situation is such that even the roots of the retail investors are about to be dug up! What direction should the crypto market take? It's worth pondering.

Experts Warn of the Biggest Issues After Ethereum's Merge!

Ethereum may fall into the trap of social slashing. He believes that social slashing can create similar censorship issues that it intends to address. The merge changes Ethereum's consensus mechanism from Proof of Work to Proof of Stake. Proof of Stake relies on validators to verify transactions and send them to the blockchain. Validators stake a specific amount of native tokens to prevent dishonest behavior.

For Ethereum, the staking amount is 32 ETH. Justin believes that Ethereum's PoS chain is censorship-resistant. However, the community's decision to slash staked Ethereum could be a significant issue. He thinks slashing should be a nuclear option, only as a last resort. Otherwise, the property rights of many innocent people could be violated.

How credible do you think it is? #ETH

This bull market is a slow bull, completely following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut policy, having pulled back from the highest point of 109588 to 78258, a drop of about 28%. Even if it is not the bottom, it should be very close to it; reaching 73000 would be even better. If 78258 is the bottom, it can at most be considered a left side; if it is not the bottom, then after a rebound, a new low will still have to appear. Don't rush in the spot market, wait for the right side or a new low to buy the dip! #BTC

This week has seen a continuous plunge, dropping from around 96,500 to the current level of about 79,000. It is expected that another wave of accelerated decline will occur before hitting the bottom, which is likely in the range of 69,000-74,000. Following that, a rebound will happen, but it will not be a reversal. After the rebound, there will be continued declines testing the bottom support, so do not attempt to catch the bottom right now; wait for the right opportunity.

Ethereum is expected to drop below 2,000, and currently, 1,650-1,850 is a strong support level. I am currently holding no spot positions, and I only take short-term daily contracts for Bitcoin! Preserve your capital; there will always be opportunities. #BTC #ETH

Today's market view, don't blindly buy the bottom, wait with empty positions!

At least wait until it is below 80,000, the US stock market will fall again, Nvidia will release its annual report around 05:00 tomorrow, if Nvidia cannot reverse market expectations, the US stock market may continue to fall sharply!

Panic will spread to the B circle, and it may become a panic plunge similar to the tariff incident on February 3! To prevent a sharp drop of 10,000 points, the big cake may fall to the range of 79,000-73,000. If it really plummets, the second cake 2,000 may fall.

Don't be superstitious! It's better to miss it than to blow up the position and keep the principal! #BTC

Market Analysis on February 26, 2025

Currently, the market is in a phase of large ups and downs, with extreme short-term trends. After a price rebound, it has entered a consolidation phase, and the short-term direction is somewhat unclear. Therefore, for friends who are holding cash, it's best to observe steadily, and for those entering the market, please pay attention to reasonable risk control and timely profit-taking for security. Do not engage in blind and aggressive operations. In the spot market, you can wait for two to three days, and after the market stabilizes and warms up, consider making entries on the right side. Finally, I want to emphasize again: do good risk control, regardless of how confident you are in your judgment of future market trends.

Recently, Bitcoin has seen a drop of over ten thousand points, with prices falling from a high of around 99,500 to about 86,000. Currently, the price has rebounded to around 88,800. The short-term price volatility is significant. A few days ago, I mentioned to observe steadily and focus on short positions during the rebound. There’s not much good analysis on the chart, and I have been reminding everyone to maintain good risk control and to timely seize profits because as the market warms up, regulations are gradually tightening. Although the price is continuously rising in the short term, trading volume is noticeably decreasing, so I advise everyone to pay attention to risks! #BTC

When I woke up, the sky had fallen. Bitcoin fell from 96,500 yesterday to 90,900. The copycats made things worse. Fortunately, I told everyone to go short some time ago. From a technical point of view, there is no sign of stabilization at all, which means that it will continue to fall. At this time, shorting the spot may be the best choice. I currently only do intraday contracts for Bitcoin. I have already gone short in the spot market. I feel that this market is a bottomless pit. Whoever is in the pattern will lose money! #BTC

ETH Event Analysis: Bybit's $1.5 Billion ETH Theft Becomes a Potential Positive:

1. Hackers cannot sell off in the short term, effectively locking up the assets;
2. Exchanges need to repurchase to replenish inventory, forming buying support;
3. Massive short positions accumulated (rare negative funding rate), short covering will become fuel for price increases.
4. Along with the significant upgrade on April 18, the current price around 2750 is severely undervalued.
5. Historical fractals indicate a potential rise to 3500 before April, with key support at 2600-2300 allowing for staggered spot purchases.

It’s been a bumpy ride! It’s been a long time since there has been any negative news recently, and the market is looking up. But the Bybit theft incident dealt another heavy blow to the crypto community. It’s been a roller coaster ride! It’s getting further and further away for retail investors to get their money back, and there’s no end in sight! #bybit被盗

Why has the United States weakened so quickly?

It is not that the United States has weakened, but that China has forced the United States to "weaken."

Looking around the world, apart from China, you will find that the gap between the United States and other countries has not narrowed, but has instead widened.

A glance at the history of the United States over the past few decades reveals this. The reason the United States can win is not because of how well it has developed itself, but because it can harvest from the whole world! Whether it is the dollar replacing the pound as the first currency, forcing England and France to give up their colonies to obtain raw materials and markets, the peaceful evolution of the Soviet Union while plundering, or suppressing Japan to make a fortune, all rely on one word: rob.

With China becoming a pandemic zone, capital fleeing in large amounts, manufacturing returning, and many high-quality enterprises collapsing and in dire need, what will American capital do? At this time, the Chinese government has no choice but to make concessions.

Then sweeping the world, the United States uses vaccine diplomacy to harvest the world, taking whatever it wants, the real MAGA!

The gap between the world and the United States further widens, while once again suppressing the second place.

It’s just that China did not let it have its way. #BTC

The worst people in the cryptocurrency circle recently:

1. Missed out on Trump
2. Trapped by Trump's wife
3. Took over Cuba at a high price. Rushed by Cuba
4. Rushed by Nasdaq, took over Vine at a high price
5. Woke up by voice in the morning and took over Alon at a high price
6. Rushed by Brazilian President

Which one are you? #BTC

The era of shorting new currencies is over, but there are still too many people going long, forcing the market makers to keep pushing up, watching the retail investors get wrecked. In this environment, it has become this ridiculous, isn't it a situation of too many longs? #BTC

Looking at the 4-hour chart of the major currency, the Bollinger Bands are in an opening posture, with prices running in the middle-lower band area. The MACD on the hourly chart is continuously declining, and the fast and slow lines are expanding negatively, indicating a bearish signal. The daily chart also shows a strong sell signal, with both lines below the 0 axis and continuing to diverge. The RSI on the hourly level is approaching the oversold zone, which may face a technical rebound in the short term; however, the daily level is still hovering in the middle-low range, indicating a relatively pessimistic market sentiment. The EMA short-term, medium-term, and long-term moving averages are all in a bearish arrangement, failing to form a support effect. EMA7, 30, and 120 are all above the current price, providing resistance for a short-term rebound. We will see if the intraday rebound can stabilize above 98,000; if it cannot stabilize, the intraday trend will continue to be weak.

Short Position: Sell at 98,500-99,500, Stop Loss: 100,000, Target: Below 96,000.

Long Position: Focus on the 92,000-93,500 range to go long, Stop Loss: 90,500, Target: Above 97,000. #BTC

If Bitcoin falls below $94,000, the cumulative long liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $1.371 billion.

Conversely, if Bitcoin breaks above $97,000, the cumulative short liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $762 million. #BTC

Ethereum Trend Analysis:

Ethereum surged and then retreated last night, briefly breaking through the 2800 resistance before quickly dropping back to around 2849, hitting a low near 2686. However, it rebounded after touching the middle band on the 4-hour chart, and the trend has not broken downwards. Currently, the coin price is running around 2700, so it is temporarily not recommended to short. Our strategy for the day remains focused on low buying. Long position: Place orders in the 2520-2560 range, stop loss at 2490, target above 2800. #ETH

Today's Hot News in the Crypto Circle

1. If Bitcoin falls below $95,000, the cumulative liquidation intensity of long positions on mainstream CEXs will reach $229 million.
Comment: If Bitcoin breaks through $99,000, the cumulative liquidation intensity of short positions on mainstream CEXs will reach $160 million, which means going down before going up, a washout in both long and short positions~

2. A man was arrested for climbing the Hollywood sign and waving a flag promoting a cryptocurrency website.
Comment: This guy wants to become an internet celebrity~

3. Trump: Some people want to break me and Musk apart, but "they have not succeeded."
Comment: I have a feeling Trump will change his mind later~

4. CZ: I've heard that the BNB Chain team is producing video tutorials on creating AI agents on that chain.
Comment: If you shout too much, it will lead to visual fatigue~

5. The total market value of stablecoins has surpassed $225.2 billion, growing 0.55% in the past week.
Comment: It feels like the cake is getting bigger and bigger, but most people can't get a slice of it~

6. CZ: BTC is now more inclined to be a reserve asset rather than a trading currency.
Comment: When will the price be benchmarked against gold?

7. U.S. lawmakers accuse the TRUMP token of being a scam, and Musk and the DOGE team are undermining consumer protection.
Comment: If the money isn't distributed properly, it will definitely attract trouble~

8. Some Tesla employees and management express concern about Musk's involvement in politics.
Comment: Their concerns are justified~

9. The DOGE led by Musk has sent termination notices to more than ten employees of the U.S. Digital Services Office.
Comment: Old Ma acts decisively~

10. More than 30 states in the U.S. will introduce policies supporting Bitcoin and digital assets.
Comment: Just waiting for the Federal Reserve~

11. A massive market-wide rally in crypto is absent, with the surge of new tokens and new chains leading to dispersed liquidity.
Comment: This is just one side of the story~

12. The Argentine opposition plans to impeach President Milei, accusing him of promoting a cryptocurrency scam.
Comment: The dragon-slaying old man has become the evil dragon~

13. LIBRA issuance advisor: Argentine President Milei deleted tweets on defaults, Kelsier did not engage in misconduct.
Comment: A dog-eat-dog situation has emerged between the two parties~

14. In the past 7 days, the total Gas fees on the BNB Chain have surpassed Ethereum.
Comment: BSC is most afraid of being too active~ #BTC

If the market continues to be sluggish, what should we retail investors do?

First, don't be a diamond hand, don't believe in the narrative of VC coins, don't take over, and throw away the existing old altcoins. The law of playing new and not playing old is still valid.

Second, if you want to trade, go to the chain. The wealth effect on the chain is already much higher than that off the chain. The exchange has become the last stop for retail investors to take over.

Third, keep sufficient liquidity funds, and wait until the stage of changing dealers is completed, and invest in new narratives and new targets. The core focus is on the narrative of the US capital background, that is, the US concept currency.

In short, the response strategy of ordinary retail investors can be summarized in one sentence: throw away the existing old altcoins, keep the principal, and wait for the new narrative on the chain to appear. Capital never sleeps. As a financial market with weak supervision, no permission, and global liquidity, the crypto industry will never lack opportunities. The key is that we must stay in the market all the time and don't leave. We will always seize the opportunities that belong to us. #BTC

2025.2.16 Major Events in the Crypto World

1.Standard Chartered Bank: Expects BTC to rebound this weekend;

2.Jupiter team member: The Jupiter team did not participate in the launch of LIBRA;

3.Solayer founder: Arunkumar Sugadevan is unrelated to LIBRA;

4.Musk: Grok 3 will be released at 8 PM Pacific Time on Monday, with a live demonstration;

5.Solayer founder: The creator of the LIBRA token has laundered over 15 million dollars and has reported it to the police for further investigation;

6.Market news: The opposition party in Argentina plans to impeach President Javier Milei, accusing him of promoting cryptocurrency rug pulls;

7.Kelsier: Milei and his team unexpectedly changed their position and cannot control it, planning to reinvest all funds into the Libra token.#BTC

If Bitcoin breaks through $100,000, the cumulative short order liquidation strength of mainstream CEX will reach $1.346 billion.

On the contrary, if Bitcoin falls below $95,000, the cumulative long order liquidation strength of mainstream CEX will reach $1.424 billion. #BTC