After two days, Bitcoin is currently at a testing high position close to 100,000 USD. If there are no surprises, it will directly break through and rise in the next few days. Coinglass data shows that the liquidation funds for shorts at the 100,000 position will exceed 2 billion USD across the network. Bitcoin has transformed from a weak order flow earlier this week to a strong order flow, and there are already no market opportunities for a short-term drop.
Last week, when pepe was launched on UP, Uncle San was still sighing that the long-term returns of altcoins had a chance to outperform Bitcoin. This sentiment didn't last long before Bitcoin returned to its high point again; strong continues to be strong is not wrong at all. In this round of bull market holdings, apart from the batch that doubled with zero cost realized before March this year, the banner of profits has always been held by Bitcoin.

The new high of Bitcoin has reached above 42,000 points. The momentum is not strong, and there is no volume in the on-chain data. It is a typical case of no volume. Whether it will continue to reach a new high in the future is almost certain from the current price of Bitcoin. It can go up with just a few hundred points.
However, in the 24 hours when the pie was endless, Shanzhai once again suffered a real blow from the market. This immeasurable amount does not only refer to the big pie, but also to the significant depletion of funds in the entire network every day. Judging from the current status, if the market returns to the weak adjustment stage before this round of surge, the copycat will once again slow down the rebound momentum.

The CEO of ether.fi stated on X that meme coins are a cancer, and 98% of players are losing money. The real data on-chain may be even more severe; from the total number of wallets on-chain, the number of wallets that rushed into memes and made a profit in six months is less than 1%. When accounting for some professional teams that specialize in dogfighting, the actual percentage may be even less than 1%.
This is also why, while I do not recommend everyone to play contracts, Uncle San is very cautious in discussing memes. The commonality of these two markets is that you can take small risks for big rewards, and if you choose wisely, there are countless possibilities. However, the drawbacks are also evident; in a high-stimulation state, hormones are released rapidly, and one can quickly transition from a rational state to an extreme irrational state for profit, losing oneself in the fantasy of getting rich.

When a coin has a main force, the technical aspect is not as important as the main force's idea, even if the coin is as strong as Bitcoin. In terms of trend, Bitcoin has gradually lost the opportunity to fill the gap below in the short term. The strong buying of Wall Street directly caused it to go sideways for a week, almost absorbing 90% of the long contract positions. At present, the short contract positions continue to soar, and the short squeeze war is imminent.
The exchange rate of Ethereum to Bitcoin continues to hit the bottom, and surprisingly, the exchange rate of Sol to Ethereum continues to hit a new high. As a public chain, Ethereum made everyone successful in the last bull market, and Sol made a generation of people rich in this bull market. I was particularly moved when I wrote a member document today and asked if Sol should be sold because it has increased tenfold. How far has this bull market come?

Bitcoin has been trading sideways at a high level recently. Even if there is a brief decline in the hourly level, it can be pulled back briefly whenever the short contract positions surge. When the market is flooded with funds and the bullish trend has enough confidence, the market will fall into an illogical collision between bulls and bears, and the spillover funds will accelerate the entry of wavering investors.
The technical aspects and market sentiment of the day before yesterday gave Sanshu a strong signal of a short-term correction. The market did not get out of the current high-level consolidation pattern at the end of the weekend, and with the sharp surge in short positions, there is a possibility of liquidation. In any case, after stabilizing the basic position of the big cake, just wait patiently for new layout opportunities.

The market logic in recent days is still within the plan. After the four-hour range of Bitcoin peaked, there was no effective breakthrough. Instead, the hourly level continued to fall back during the long adjustment. From the technical point of view, Sanshu believes that the market needs a good adjustment since Monday this week, and the adjustment cycle is expected to end within 72 hours at the earliest.
Yesterday, Litecoin officially announced that LTC would be transformed into a meme coin. As expected, many LTCcoin tokens of various chains were launched in the primary market. The highest one soared 70 times in one hour. Times create memes. If VC coins don’t work hard, it is estimated that this backbone will never be able to rise again.

Today, old altcoins such as OKT and LTC had a small surge. The current logic of the old altcoins' rotation rebound is consistent with the logic of the traditional rotation market, mainly because the funds of Bitcoin are gradually overflowing. Conservative investors who are interested in high-priced Bitcoin assets are gradually turning their attention to tokens of the same type. It is expected that this trend will continue during the stagnation stage of Bitcoin's surge.
Unlike other old copycats, Litecoin officially announced that the current LTC positioning has been changed to memecoin. After the current market boom, LTC has risen by 10% in a short period of time. The former glory of Litecoin in the market is estimated to never return. The result of drifting with the tide is a sudden critical hit after a long period of silence, followed by insomnia.

In the past few days, market sentiment continues to be suspended by waves of completely empty meme series. As long as a certain An is announced to be listed, the surge starts at 100%, and there is almost no turning back. The difference between a bull market and a bear market is that listing a certain An in a bear market becomes the end of this coin, while listing a certain An in a bull market becomes its new life.
Is this really the case? Without comprehensive historical data, I cannot give an accurate answer. In the previous bull market, the meme concept series centered on doge accounted for about 10% of the total market value at its peak. However, in the bear market that began at the end of 2021, the meme series had the highest rate of delisting, the overall token price decline, and the market value decline ratio, which were the highest in the entire sector.

Bitcoin broke through the historical high throughout the day, and finally paused its advance after breaking the 90,000 mark. From the Coinglass liquidation data chart, when Bitcoin first broke through 90,000 points, short positions were nearly completely cleared. After a 3,000-point pullback in the evening, over 1 billion USD in liquidated funds hit the contract market, generating huge market fuel once again.
Just now, after the US stock market opened, the total liquidation funds for shorts above 90,000 USD across the network reached 3 billion USD. If I were the market maker, I would definitely pull back to 90,000 and then dump! Bitcoin's strength is unparalleled, and the stifling sentiment indicates that most people do not hold Bitcoin.

Bitcoin has reached its all-time high above 82,000 points. Judging from the trend, there is no sign of a reduction in the strength of the bulls. The direct ten-fold increase in the price after the B-An ACT was launched on the shelves has completely opened up the emotional outburst of this round of copycat carnival. Everything is pointing to the beginning of a real bull market.
However, in this case, whether to choose to chase highs or to hold back the enthusiasm and wait for lows is a great test of our cognition. The Fear and Greed Index reached 78 points during the day. According to historical experience, whenever the Greed Index reaches 80 points, the market will experience a flash crash of about 20% within two weeks. We cannot predict whether history will repeat itself, but we can definitely learn from it.

After experiencing outflows of nearly US$700 million for three consecutive days before the election results came out, the Bitcoin spot ETF saw an inflow of another US$622 million yesterday as Trump made a comeback. It is conceivable that off-market funds will pour into the market at an even crazier pace in the foreseeable fourth quarter.
In the current market, I am sure that Bitcoin will reverse strongly with 72,000 points as support in the short term. Bitcoin's leading drive will become the initial driving force of this round of market, and the latecomers will follow closely. But before that, we should pay special attention to the potential leverage risk in the market. Yesterday, I said that when the market bullish indicators are repaired, the market will start a new round of main uptrend.

With Trump once again in the race for the White House, the noise of recent days has finally begun to fade. Bitcoin broke through its historical high during the day, reaching around 75,500 points, and a strong bullish candle released nearly five months of pent-up volume. This raises the question: Did Trump's election lead Bitcoin to new highs?
In the opinion of the Third Uncle, it is not entirely the case; Trump's election is merely a catalyst for Bitcoin's new high. As I mentioned earlier, even if Trump ultimately loses, after a brief adjustment, Bitcoin will eventually reach new highs, and the bull market in the crypto market will continue. So-called trends can only be influenced by external environments, while their essence cannot be changed.

The prelude to the US presidential election has finally officially begun. Five years ago, it was hard for me to imagine that the presidential election of the world's largest country would be so closely related to ordinary people like me. Trump's poll trends are positively correlated with the fluctuations of my assets. The leveraged market continues to inject sufficient funds into this feast. It is indeed a grand event that happens once every four years!
After yesterday's content disclosed my personal chip situation to everyone, more and more friends came to communicate with me privately. At present, the biggest problem for most people is how to get out of the bull market after being trapped, and the feeling of missing out on future market trends is particularly strong!

The image above shows my holdings data apart from completely doubling a single currency, and I believe that after doubling, I do not intend to add to the position unless there are expectations for further highs. The community asset management account is not included in this, just giving everyone a preview while discussing my thoughts and some logic under the same market conditions.
First, regarding total positions, since 2021, I have adhered to the principle of holding half positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum, with the lowest proportion of Bitcoin and Ethereum being over 40%. The average price of Bitcoin rose from 44,000 USD at the end of the last bull market to the bear market low, averaging around 27,000. The cost of Ethereum is around 1,700 points, and most of my Ethereum holdings were exchanged from high positions in Bitcoin during the first half of this year. The logic of trading Bitcoin at high points is correct, but whether the decision to switch to Ethereum is correct remains to be seen. The trading of Bitcoin and Ethereum is very infrequent; my trading frequency is basically once a quarter.

The rhythm of this market's washing is simply at its peak. After starting to decline yesterday, it broke through the support at 70,000 points and dropped below 69,000 points. When market sentiment becomes extremely pessimistic, the market surged sharply after the evening data was released. The current high and low positions are close to 3,000 points, with a liquidation of 271 million within 24 hours, of which long positions accounted for 194 million USD.
The evening non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 12,000 jobs, far below expectations and previous values, with the unemployment rate consistent with previous expectations. The data indicates a short-term favorable risk for capital. However, we need to be vigilant about whether the significantly lower-than-expected non-farm employment will bring about a new wave of recession panic.

Today's market bulls are likely to be confused by the data of the net inflow of 896 million dollars into the fourth largest Bitcoin spot ETF in history. In 24 hours, the contract market was liquidated with a total of more than 150 million US dollars of leverage, of which longs accounted for more than 90%, and the panic sentiment of the high price of Bitcoin has intensified in the short term.
The trend logic of the big cake was quite clear yesterday. The short-term four-hour support is around 70,000 points. The surge in long contracts in a short period of time is the main reason for the acceleration of leverage in this round. The second is the linkage effect brought about by the correction of US stocks in the evening.
The US weekly jobless claims and September core PCE data showed some negative news. On the one hand, the data indirectly showed that the US employment situation was stable and the economy was recovering, but on the other hand, it showed that inflation was recurring. This made the Fed's economic policy more uncertain. The basic market performance of the swing was the flight of US stock funds out of the country.

This morning at three o'clock, Bitcoin surged to 63,760 points, just 100 points away from its historical high. It was the strongest trading day in terms of bullish volume in the last four months, with market optimism stemming from yesterday's $827 million net inflow into Bitcoin spot ETFs. The market then experienced a brief pullback, currently adjusting at a high level.
From the trend perspective, Bitcoin has already shown signs of a market reversal in advance. The only unpredictable variable left is the US elections. However, from a macro perspective, the breakthrough of the previous high trend position for two consecutive days already indicates that Bitcoin has the possibility of reaching new highs, and the opportunities for entering the market will gradually decrease.

Bitcoin is ridiculously strong today, testing the 72,000 mark again after four months. It is ironic that Ethereum, like Bitcoin, is about 2,000 points away from its historical highs. For the same 2,000 points, one has almost become an insurmountable gap in the short term and a deep pain in the hearts of all believers, while the other is within reach by just tiptoeing.
There are three main reasons for Bitcoin's strength. The first is that the election is approaching, and the hype about Trump's chances of winning is getting stronger and stronger. The second is the huge and stable net inflow of Bitcoin ETF funds recently. In the past 20 days, only one day of Bitcoin spot ETF was in a net outflow state, and the rest were all net inflow states. Yesterday, the net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETF was 473 million US dollars. The third is the stimulation of BlackRock's billion-dollar Bitcoin purchase. The top giants not only have excellent vision, but also have absolutely first-class ability to mobilize market sentiment.

The wind of MEME has spread from AI to art. The ban suddenly appeared and the profit was 10,000 times in three days. The partners who followed the vice president of Sotheby's auction house into the market made a lot of money. According to public information, there are no less than ten people in the circle who directly made more than 1,000 times the profit in three days because of the ban token. Many more people slapped their thighs and regretted not having a good pattern!
Today, a set of on-chain data showed that more than 80% of the wallets that participated in the meme primary market ambush in the past month have lost money, and only less than 3% of the addresses have generated more than $1,000 in revenue. I was shocked and checked the total token volume on the chain. Taking sol as an example, the total issuance of meme tokens on the solana chain is 2.6 million, of which no more than 20,000 contracts have a market value greater than 1000U. There are so many contracts that are not even worth $1,000, so let's just call it a small project. So saying that 80% of the addresses are losing money is just a nice way of saying it. The accurate statement should be that more than 80% of the wallets have returned to zero.