After two days, Bitcoin is currently at a testing high position close to 100,000 USD. If there are no surprises, it will directly break through and rise in the next few days. Coinglass data shows that the liquidation funds for shorts at the 100,000 position will exceed 2 billion USD across the network. Bitcoin has transformed from a weak order flow earlier this week to a strong order flow, and there are already no market opportunities for a short-term drop.
Last week, when pepe was launched on UP, Uncle San was still sighing that the long-term returns of altcoins had a chance to outperform Bitcoin. This sentiment didn't last long before Bitcoin returned to its high point again; strong continues to be strong is not wrong at all. In this round of bull market holdings, apart from the batch that doubled with zero cost realized before March this year, the banner of profits has always been held by Bitcoin.
Regarding the future, after Bitcoin officially breaks through 100,000 USD, it will start Bitcoin's reduction plan. Even if considering from the perspective of the bull market time cycle, Bitcoin may still reach new heights, so just gradually reduce positions. At this stage, Bitcoin has lost the cost-performance ratio for bottom fishing.
In contrast, Ethereum finally showed rare strength after Bitcoin's high-position consolidation yesterday, with the daily line increasing by about 10%. Ethereum's ecosystem is indeed still a king-level presence within the circle, but some sub-sectors have already been largely divided by emerging public chains. The quality of something can be clearly seen from the choices made by capital.
In the last bull market, almost all the turning points of the main rising trends were driven by new narratives from Ethereum, from the start of ICOs to the hot DeFi sector, and later to chain games. The massive Ethereum, in essence, promoted a short-term continuous surge in its coin price through passive staking. Almost all institutions use Ethereum's public chain as the first standard to judge whether their project has strength. This year, it is quite the opposite; the Ethereum technical team is still entangled in improving Ethereum's efficiency, creating serious market divergence with capital and retail investors pursuing profits, resulting in a significant decline for Ethereum.
Especially for the Ethereum Foundation, which always manages to sell coins before the market drops at critical moments, it leaves people speechless. Will Ethereum still participate in the bull market? Currently, it seems that this round of bull market will definitely have a place for it, but in the long run, it is uncertain whether it will have its shadow in the next round. The market is progressive, and technologies can be referenced; apart from the stable Bitcoin, everything else in the crypto market can be replaced.
Having complained so much, if Ethereum needs to perform outstandingly in the future, the most important thing now is to return to the high position before 3800 points to concentrate chips for a breakthrough. Once this position breaks through on a weekly basis, reaching new highs will be a foregone conclusion. Secondly, Bitcoin must maintain strong high-position consolidation, so that external funds will have an advantage when choosing high-cost-performance assets, leading to greater opportunities in the future. As for higher points, let’s talk about that when we get there.
The total amount of Bitcoin spot ETFs has now surpassed 100 billion USD, with a net inflow of 1.005 billion USD for Bitcoin spot ETFs yesterday, while Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net outflow of 9 million USD. Bitcoin is still in a phase of high intensity net inflow. Therefore, purely from the macro data of ETFs, the market for Ethereum has not arrived yet.
In terms of the old altcoins, when I wrote the article last week, I clearly mentioned that the next tier after Bitcoin is the old altcoins starting to gain momentum. Currently, BCH has broken through 500 USD, LTC is advancing towards 100 after crossing categories, and XRP, TRX, ADA, etc. are catching up. If we have no doubts about the current bull market environment, then we should not doubt the logic that the assets we hold will return to high positions and make some profit.
As long as a high-quality project is in a state of silent technical upgrades and optimizations, its corresponding coin price will be elevated from the mundane market of similar categories. However, the bull market is different; in a bull market, as long as it is a coin, there will be moments of explosion. From last year to just before October this year, we have gradually transitioned from how to buy to how to sell when the market comes.
BTC: The upward trend of Bitcoin was confirmed by the daily line yesterday, so the chances of a significant change in the current environment are low, meaning Bitcoin is consolidating while altcoins surge. For Bitcoin, this bull market has definitely gone through a large part, and Uncle San does not believe that Bitcoin can go above 200,000 USD, at least not in this bull market. However, for altcoins, it is currently the early to mid-stage of the market. The pain point for altcoins is that if the market comes, its window may be very short, short enough that most cannot return to the highs of the last bull market. Currently, from the leverage liquidation data, to achieve a daily correction of more than 5%, let's break 100,000 first and then see.
ETH: Ethereum moves in tandem with Bitcoin's adjustments. The technical support has moved up to around 3030 points, and the turning point of the market needs to break through 3800 points. Currently, it is still early for a major market led by Ethereum and altcoins.
Altcoins: The memes have been talked about less in the past two days, and the market wave continues to decline. The old mainstream sectors are expected to maintain a surge for more than a month and a half. Many people hold earlier coins in this sector, so I won't make recommendations here. The objective view is not to gamble on the historical highs; if it goes up, first release some of your liquidity. OP has been very strong recently; looking at the monthly line, this month is crucial. If it can stay above 2 USD by the end of the month, then testing new highs next month shouldn't be a problem. Those who had this coin before should pay attention, while other L2s are expected to link up only after Ethereum rises.
Other altcoins, discussion in the comments.
The fear and greed index is at 94 today. (Profits should be taken to reduce risk.)
Finally, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot!
