三叔

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This morning, Trump officially fulfilled his campaign promise to sign a Bitcoin strategic reserve agreement. The core content is that he will not use taxpayers' money to buy coins, and the source of strategic reserve coin assets is illegal fines, etc. Since the government did not spend money to buy coins as expected by the market, the market fell sharply in the short term, and the copycats were collectively hit hard again!
This decision is really Trump-like, taking into account both inside and outside, but hurting the leeks in the cryptocurrency circle. After the short-term negative news, Sanshu believes that the signing of this agreement is still beneficial to the long-term development of the crypto market. At present, the Americans still have nearly 200,000 Bitcoins of confiscated assets, which is equivalent to an indefinite pledge in the future, and the market has lost 200,000 Bitcoins of liquidity in four years.

The market has reversed overnight, and the gaps that need to be filled have shown no resistance at all; it has come down just as straightforwardly as it went up. The anticipated weekend tweet from Trump about his crypto strategy after the US stock market opened did not materialize; instead, relevant tweets were quietly deleted without any explanation. It turns out that what Trump referred to as a crypto strategic reserve was not about buying coins in the market, but rather taking them directly; this method is truly comparable to Milei!
Once the crypto market becomes a cash machine for celebrities, the future for retail investors is bleak! Yesterday, Uncle San said that the president's tweet could not provide a decisive trend change for the market, and it really became a prophetic statement. The moment Trump swung his slaughter knife, the market lost even the most basic volatility. The collaboration between the 'Heavenly Palace' and those with over a hundred million in funds is seamless, with both bulls and bears tightly controlled; they just fear that everyone doesn’t know they are in cahoots.

川普的这个任期真的把加密市场玩的明明白白的，大周末硬是给大家送了一个平均10%以上涨幅的福利。上文我喊的抄底，昨天川普发推要落地的加密货币战略储备，想不赚钱都有点难！
sol和xrp战略储备本身是应有之义，ada确实成为了一批黑马横空出世，预期外的利好直愣愣的砸下来的时候ada的表现最为亮眼，直线拉升超70%涨幅。可以预见的是ada在本次官宣成为老美的加密战略储备之后，待行情缓和肯定会进入到反弹的第一梯队，并且有机会成为为数不多的能够突破历史高点的山寨，后期可以重点关注。
在随后的推文重新定调大饼和以太的地位之后这两者也紧随而上，大饼直接从86000点下方一鼓作气冲高95000点附近，上行接近一万点。也由此CME期货交易市场出现了93000点至85000点近八千点的最新缺口。
这个缺口会不会补上？三叔认为还是会的。历史上期货市场但凡出现缺口之后大部分情况都是两周内补上，小部分情况需要一个极度左右，极少数情况无法回补。这既是两个交易市场不同逻辑的价格修复，也同时是短期内行情暴力拉升之后的技术指标修复，相辅相成。
那行情就此反转了吗?在定位为目前大牛市框架不变的情况下，短期行情三叔仍然认为

The Fear and Greed Index has dropped to the lowest value since early August last year, second only to June 2022, reporting a value of ten, indicating extreme fear. Historically, after a period of extreme fear, there is often a nice rebound, so at this moment, would you dare to buy the dip?
Whether we can buy the dip logically depends on our intended holding period and the current objective judgment of the market. If we are merely hoping for a rebound of over 30%, it’s a good opportunity after extreme fear, regardless of bull or bear markets. However, if we are committed to value investing, the judgment of mid- to long-term trends becomes extremely important.

In the past two days, Bitcoin has plummeted nearly 10,000 points, with the futures market accumulating over 600,000 liquidation cases, and total liquidation amounts exceeding 3 billion USD. A trader named 'Set Ten Big Goals' suffered a single loss of 100 million USD, and countless retail investors have cut losses and exited the market. For many who entered the market due to Trump, the sudden blow has crushed them!
The concentrated chip area ahead of 93,000 points was breached without any obstacles, dropping straight to 86,000 points, which is the lowest position in the current high-level market fluctuation range. The Coinglass liquidity map shows that after the 100 million USD large holder's stop-loss, all bullish liquidity was consumed down to the low point of 86,000, which objectively stabilized Bitcoin's downward driving force temporarily, resulting in a continuation of the decline.

Bybit bought 157,600 Ethereum in the past two days, thus making up for all the losses of Ethereum tokens stolen by hackers. The revenue capacity and capital reserves of the leading centralized platform were extremely shocking at this moment. Unfortunately, after Bybit replenished the Ethereum, the Ethereum market did not recover significantly. The hacker only sold 10,000 Ethereum, and a large portion is still waiting for an opportunity to act. The
Before the smoke of the Bybit theft had dissipated, the Infini contract was also attacked within the day, with the amount of stolen funds exceeding 49 million US dollars. The attacker converted the funds into 17,700 Ethereum in a short period of time and made subsequent transfers. It has to be said that the security attributes of Ethereum were clearly exploited by hackers. On the eve of another trend reversal, it was hit in an unexpected way. ​

This mobile mining project with over 10 million CX users did not cheat this time and successfully launched the mainnet. It was launched on the gate spot and overseas European and Italian platforms at 4 pm today, and also included the contracts of multiple platforms. The high point of the launch was 2.888 points, with a maximum market value of 288.8 billion US dollars. The current circulation volume is 6.308 billion. The data is too large. In addition to the successful cashing out of kyc, please participate with caution!
In the short term, market sentiment continues to improve. If data interference is eliminated, the big cake has a chance to rise slightly. The cyclical market has now lost its original logic. In addition to the big cake, the overall market sentiment needs a long time to repair, so there is still no pattern in the short term, and the necessary empty cup mentality should be maintained.

The Web3 market's Hong Kong conference has entered its second day, and apart from the evident decline in conference sentiment this year, Uncle San discovered that the rumored KOL refugee circles actually exist. The term 'crypto refugees' specifically refers to those at the bottom who have lost beyond recovery, and it turns out it encompasses any group, including many seemingly glamorous KOLs in the circle.
The incident originated from an internal exchange gathering among KOLs after a certain conference. After a meal, a group of eight people, including the organizer, looked at each other, and Uncle San ended up covering the entire dining cost of less than 4,000 HKD. I am just an obscure and nearly transparent marginal figure in the circle, and I generally wouldn't consider attending such events.

After the highs, the market cap strong as SOL is also close to being halved. After the meme wave recedes, Solana's future has raised a significant question mark in the hearts of many value investors. Many players who compared SOL to ETH have finally begun to recognize the underlying logic of public chains; although Ethereum's meme hasn't shown much in this cycle, Solana only has memes!
This is also why even though Solana's ecosystem has developed exceptionally strong, most geek teams still do not believe it can replace the Ethereum ecosystem. The knife of Milai not only harvested the big shots of the first-level dog fighters but also nearly took down Solana. Moreover, on March 1st, there will be a massive unlocking of 2 billion dollars worth of SOL tokens.

Three Arrows Capital founder Zhu Su posted on social media: It's time to go all-in on Ethereum. Whether Vitalik's victory will come after the enemy’s bodies float by, we cannot know. However, going all-in on Ethereum at this position under multiple logics is reasonable but not wise. The courage required is even more than betting $100,000 on Bitcoin. Just don't blindly follow Zhu Su into the pit.
An anonymous programmer donated 1,411 Ethereum to a charity and then burned 600 Ethereum, expressing concerns about digital slavery. The world of the wealthy is so unrestrained; when discussing opinions politely, no one pays attention, so they directly speak with coins. Digitization is a globally existing factual issue. When the sky falls, will those who set the rules not understand the dangers of excessive digitization?

At 6 o'clock this morning, the meme coin of Argentine President Mi was officially launched. After a brief rise to 4.56 points, it fell all the way to the current 0.18 points. According to statistics, the main shipment volume is about 200 million US dollars. After that, the whole network complained, Milei and the operation team argued, and various first-level gods complained and reviewed.
From the known information, the fact that Mile deleted the post can prove the relationship between him and the operation team of this coin. The money-making effect of celebrity coins has reached a low point at this moment. Those who missed Trump coins and heavily invested in Mile meme coins during the day are likely to miss the bull market. As a combination of interest and topic in the crypto market, meme has lost its original meaning in promoting the market when it is coerced by capital and becomes a tool for a certain group to make money. In the end, the focus of hot money will slowly return to the lowest cost infrastructure in the market.

In contrast to the calm appearance of the market in recent days, the emotional influence brought by the underlying news is turbulent. A new batch of second-tier mainstream spot ETFs is about to pass, the expectation for interest rate cuts has been postponed after inflation strengthened, and several financial regulatory agencies have reached agreements on crypto regulation, among other things like the postponed tariff policies.
After the CPI data rose sharply yesterday, the market experienced a brief crash, followed by a recovery under Powell's soothing speech, leading to the first wave of minor emotional peaks after the short-term decline. The overall performance can be summarized as: although inflation has increased, the Federal Reserve has no intention of changing the current interest rate environment and has no considerations for raising rates. There should be multiple supports for cryptocurrencies, traditional banks need to open bridges with crypto, and the overall long-term benefits of a soft economic landing are still quite sufficient.

In the morning, an announcement from Ou Yi about the launch of Pi suddenly caused a huge commotion in the depressed market environment, and the ensuing discussion accompanied the market throughout the day.
A CX project that has been running for seven or eight years, with more than 50 million participants, the largest Chinese community of middle-aged and elderly people participating, and a public GA project in many places, will be launched on the mainnet on the 20th of this month without any warning. Then the Ou Yi team announced the listing of spot goods at the first time, followed by BG. The Pi coin on the HTX platform rose 100% on the spot to the highest point of 100 points. Various potential records of getting rich quickly are flying all over the sky. Does the market really let everyone get what they want?

CZ finally understood that helping others cut leeks is not as good as doing it yourself. TST, this test coin, was clearly played by him. First, this test token appeared in the official teaching video of the BSC chain, then it was mentioned by CZ, who also publicly disclosed the contract address. After retail investors rushed in, CZ decisively posted that TST had no involvement from him or the official side, triggering a primary crash. After that, a certain exchange directly listed it on the spot market, and after retail investors flowed into the secondary market, the price dropped fourfold. The light of BSC dimmed within just a few hours.
Ultimately, TST followed the same path as previous new coins, launching at a high position. Whether optimistic or pessimistic, there is only the option to short. In the context of a lack of liquidity, dreaming of CZ single-handedly reviving the entire chain market is simply wishful thinking. What do you think the early builders in the circle are here for? Without a long-term influx of liquidity, all market reversals are just pipe dreams.

As the Spring Festival holiday gradually comes to an end, the deserted city gradually becomes lively. In addition to bringing direct economic vitality, the flow of people may also bring influenza. The drowsiness of the past two days has eased a lot at night. Everyone should remember to protect themselves.
I saw many groups circulating a list of Coinglass's bull market escapes. None of the 30 indicators were touched. According to the previous experience of escaping the bull market, it is too early to talk about the end of the bull market. Apart from the big cake, there are only a few who can fight in the cottage. Of course, if the development of this round of market is beyond the previous experience and cognition, then everyone has to admit the loss, and there is nothing we can do.

After the speech ended, TRUMP and MELANIA dove deep, leaving those who bought at high positions collectively baffled. The entire speech and the absence of any executive orders related to crypto on the first day led to a silent market, resembling the desolate state after a throng from a big city returns home for the holidays. It seems everything has come to a close, leaving many retail investors, who had high hopes for Trump, feeling despondent.
The greater the expectation, the greater the disappointment; the ancients did not deceive me. But is this really the case? Definitely not. From the perspective of the one who understands, as the leader, he has many important matters that require prioritization. The crypto market, which accounts for less than 4% of the U.S. stock market's value, is hardly a priority compared to the 80 executive orders issued on the first day.

After the CPI data was released last night, the market surged, and the three major U.S. stock indexes opened higher. The U.S. seasonally adjusted CPI annual rate at the end of December was in line with expectations and higher than the previous value, with the published data being 2.9%; the U.S. core CPI annual rate at the end of December was lower than the expected and previous value, with the published data being 3.2%. Judging from the current situation, the last economic data of the Biden team shows that their policies are successful.
The core CPI annual rate has stabilized the current rhythm, which means that the fundamentals of the market have not changed, and the macro-economic situation of the market has always been developing in a good direction. Therefore, if the price of the currency cannot go out of a reasonable range under this situation, it is really your own problem. If any sector has fallen instead of rising in the past week, you can just blacklist it in your future crypto career.

Yesterday, Bitcoin fell 0.01% and fluctuated 7%; Ethereum fell 3.97% and fluctuated 12.82%. Bitcoin briefly dropped below 90,000 points in the early morning and then quickly pulled back. The hourly line returned to above 91,000 points. Short liquidity was temporarily consumed. The daily closing price was around 94,500 points, returning to the bottom of the range amplitude support above 93,000 points. The panic was temporarily stopped.
The reason for the market's decline is not only the negative impact of the postponement of future interest rate cuts on the macro side that we mentioned earlier, but also the main reason is the joint leverage liquidation after the current sharp drop in market liquidity. The amount of leverage liquidation in the past 24 hours exceeded 300 million US dollars, and the short side of the liquidation chart was basically completely consumed.

The California wildfires that shocked the world have now caused more than 16,000 hectares of land to be burned, including at least 12,000 buildings, including a considerable number of celebrity luxury homes. Wildfires are caused by climate change such as the whipping effect of water ripples and seasonal dry and strong winds such as the Santa Ana wind. It is known that most of the assets of the wealthy are stored in encrypted form, and when evacuating the fire area, they did not take away mnemonics or hardware wallets in time. At present, preliminary statistics show that the number of bitcoins that will remain permanently on the chain due to the California wildfires is about 1.5 million.
The data of 1.5 million burned coins is obviously exaggerated, accounting for more than 7% of the total Bitcoin. Logically, the possibility of confirmation is extremely low, but it is undeniable that a group of wealthy people’s mnemonics are indeed lost. Of course, in addition, for example, the famous director Feng, two mansions and inestimable collections were completely destroyed in the fire.