The new high of Bitcoin has reached above 42,000 points. The momentum is not strong, and there is no volume in the on-chain data. It is a typical case of no volume. Whether it will continue to reach a new high in the future is almost certain from the current price of Bitcoin. It can go up with just a few hundred points.
However, in the 24 hours when the pie was endless, Shanzhai once again suffered a real blow from the market. This immeasurable amount does not only refer to the big pie, but also to the significant depletion of funds in the entire network every day. Judging from the current status, if the market returns to the weak adjustment stage before this round of surge, the copycat will once again slow down the rebound momentum.
Aside from Bitcoin and a few rare small altcoins, the majority of altcoins, including Ethereum, have become trash; keeping them is a burden, while discarding them feels wasteful. I believe the altcoin season will come, but its form might differ from what we expect; it certainly won't be a broad rally like the last bull market.
Therefore, at this moment, regardless of whether the market is moving or not, it is particularly important to be prepared in advance. The first aspect is regarding expectations for this market cycle. Personally, I believe that without absolute certainty, one should not casually fantasize about altcoin holdings having over 20 times the potential, especially with older altcoins; otherwise, you are very likely to become a stepping stone for others to realize their expectations.
Secondly, it is crucial to optimize your holdings. Since the last bull market, my consistent philosophy has been to hold mainstream coins in half positions and no more than eight altcoins, with six being the most suitable. Holding too many positions requires significant management effort, and sector rotation won't happen all at once, easily leading you to hold the wrong coins in the right market, resulting in missing out on this bull market.
During private discussions, I found that many partners still cling to experiences from four years ago, unaware that the market has gone through a significant cycle. The biggest change in this cycle is that all the main narratives have shifted. DeFi was the engine of the last bull market, while memecoins are the super engine of this bull market, and the status of public chains has dramatically changed.
Ethereum insists on prioritizing technology and underlying logic, while Solana focuses on marketing and speculation, with Sui rapidly following Solana's path. However, in the crypto world, the price increase of coins says it all. Ultimately, this market still judges heroes based on coin prices, even if your technology is excellent.
Macro data shows that Bitcoin spot ETF had a net inflow of $814 million yesterday, while Ethereum had a net outflow of $81.3 million. Bitcoin, the undisputed king, remains strong, while Ethereum falls behind again, leaving no room for complaints. Grayscale is about to launch GBTC and mini BTC options trading, providing more channels for retail investors to engage with Bitcoin.
Maintain a calm mindset; the meme phase continues to cool down. In the near future, these funds that are hesitant to take on Bitcoin will definitely need a place to go, and CEX will surely serve as a reservoir. Lower your expectations and focus on your current position.
BTC: Bitcoin has chosen an upward direction in the short term, but there are differences compared to previous surges, with on-chain order flow suddenly decreasing, and the volume increase is not proportional. From a technical perspective, it feels like there is a bit of a pump to liquidate leverage, further verified by the short-term outflow of large funds from Bitcoin on-chain. However, from the overall market situation, a significant pullback for Bitcoin seems unrealistic; the bullish trend has already reversed the current trend. In the short term, pay attention to the 95,500 point level; the bears will be exhausted, and if the daily line can stabilize, it will welcome a new high, along with short-term recovery of lost volume. Conversely, I still lean towards adjusting this position appropriately; even if the adjustment base is still not a reasonable entry point.
ETH: Ethereum is weakly adjusting alongside Bitcoin. The technical support for the pullback is around 2800 points, but the magnitude is too weak to consider for now.
Altcoins: The altcoin segment is following the same path as the dog coins, starting to gain momentum today. If it can bring out some big coins on-chain in the short term. There are no other hotspots in the altcoin sector today, and the market is in a transition period between the meme recession and the old altcoin phase.
Other altcoins, discussion in the comments section.
The Fear and Greed Index is at 90 today. (Take note of profit-taking and reduce positions to hedge.)
Finally, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot!
