The rhythm of this market's washing is simply at its peak. After starting to decline yesterday, it broke through the support at 70,000 points and dropped below 69,000 points. When market sentiment becomes extremely pessimistic, the market surged sharply after the evening data was released. The current high and low positions are close to 3,000 points, with a liquidation of 271 million within 24 hours, of which long positions accounted for 194 million USD.
The evening non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 12,000 jobs, far below expectations and previous values, with the unemployment rate consistent with previous expectations. The data indicates a short-term favorable risk for capital. However, we need to be vigilant about whether the significantly lower-than-expected non-farm employment will bring about a new wave of recession panic.
Many may not understand the meaning of San Shu's words. According to the current situation in the US and the Department of Labor's forecast, the entire US market needs to ensure about 100,000 new jobs every month to maintain a stable unemployment rate. In other words, with a data of 12,000 jobs, it is highly likely that after the November employment data is released, the October employment data will be revised to a negative value.
At that time, a significant drop in the employment rate would signal a new recession for America, right? Of course, we also need to consider the data distortions caused by recent hurricanes and Boeing strikes. In any case, these two data points in the evening have maximized the certainty of a 25 basis point rate cut this month, as long as the core data remains relatively stable, a 25 basis point cut will mark the true turning point of this market.
The most important thing in trading is the stability of the macro market. The most feared scenario in the crypto market is an increase in the rate cut alongside the emergence of recession risks. If that happens, market liquidity will indeed accelerate, and we will have very few chips left.
Yesterday, the net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETF was 31.3 million USD, the smallest amount in recent data, while Ethereum spot ETF had a volume of 13.05 million USD. The data showed a relatively large variation, but the overall net inflow macro trend has not changed, and the sentiment of outside capital remains strong.
The highly anticipated US election, Harris has currently surpassed Trump by one point again. If Trump stumbles on this matter, he might lead everyone into a ditch in the short term. Let's pray that he eventually enters the White House.
BTC: The Bitcoin market situation was made very clear yesterday, the bottom is heading towards breaking the 70,000 support. If you paid attention to the four-hour market chart that San Shu sent out yesterday, 69,000 points were also directly breached. Subsequently, the market indeed made a 3,000-point reversal, confirming the interpretation made last night. Spot players either rode a roller coaster or completed a new wave of chip exchanges. The 400 million USD partners who were liquidated within 48 hours will never get their chips back. The short-term Bitcoin market is consistent with the previously expected trajectory, and no deviations from expectations are expected before the election. In the past few days, without effectively breaking the previous high, the short-term market will roughly adjust around the high and low positions of the last five days, before making a strong push for a new high trend. Currently, there is still no opportunity for a big drop; the big Bitcoin in November will ultimately end with a big bullish candle.
ETH: Ethereum hasn't lagged too much; the fundamentals of the market are showing some improvement. The trend is consistent with today's internal views, and it is expected that the Ethereum market will start as early as the middle of this month.
Shanzhai: Feel free to ask directly in the comments!
Panic and Greed Index intraday 75.
Finally, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot assets!
