In the Asian market on Tuesday (September 5), the U.S. dollar index fell to 104.16. China's top leader stated that he was ready to open up the development of service industries and manufacturing activities, and a series of Chinese stimulus policies put downward pressure on the U.S. dollar. Former Singapore Finance Minister and Central Bank Chairman Tharman Shanmugaratnam won the new presidential election. He mentioned that cryptocurrency is purely speculative and a bit crazy. The bad news may cause Bitcoin to fall further below $22,000.

China's top leader speaks, real estate companies lift default crisis: US dollar encounters pressure from the East

U.S. President Joe Biden's administration, China and other members of the Group of 20 (G20) signed a joint agreement to share Bitcoin transaction information in 2027, agreed to monitor crypto asset activities, and warned that a comprehensive ban on cryptocurrencies would be costly. But submissions suggest that Bitcoin should not be granted official currency or legal tender status and that central banks should avoid holding cryptocurrencies.

Forbes reports that the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets are bracing for a $15 trillion earthquake, with Biden and other G20 members endorsing the Global Financial Stability Board’s (FSB) radical, game-changing cryptocurrency regulatory recommendations.

In the face of still strong economic data and inflation that has fallen overall but has not yet reached its target, we believe that the Fed's best stance is to stay on the sidelines and remain on the sidelines. As long as there is no large-scale supply shock, the need for radical interest rate hikes will decrease. However, having learned from previous lessons and coupled with the current variables that still exist (such as rising oil prices, strikes by the United Auto Workers, etc.), the Fed is also worried about unexpected supply disturbances that will frustrate efforts to control inflation that have shown some glimmers of hope. , therefore, whether it is the dot plot expectation of another interest rate hike during the year or the decrease in the number of interest rate cuts next year, it will prevent the market from rashly trading in advance of the end of interest rate hikes or the arrival of interest rate cuts, which will instead affect inflation expectations and paths. This also means that the effect of the dot matrix is ​​more of a "deterrence" to guide expectations, rather than an absolute guide for actual operations. On the contrary, each adjustment in the dot plot is also very large, which fully demonstrates that changes within one quarter can change many expectations. Therefore, we believe that there is no need to regard current changes as absolute guidance for the future. Therefore, overall, the Fed and Powell may also be in a state of divergence and entanglement. There may not be a clear and consistent conclusion. It is still necessary to observe future data, but two points may be relatively clear: 1) The probability and necessity of radical interest rate hikes Even if there is another increase in the fourth quarter, the expected impact may not be great. Although the recent rise in oil prices has led to a rebound in overall inflation, core inflation is still in a downward range, which means that the current monetary policy is effective. However, due to factors such as the transmission lag from this round of monetary tightening to credit tightening, interest rates need to be maintained at a higher level for a period of time. Furthermore, if oil prices do not continue to rise, overall inflation may return to decline next month. Even under the potential transmission risk of oil prices, if the Fed chooses to raise interest rates again, it may be communicated in advance for a long time. Similar to the interest rate hike in July, the impact on the market may not be great. 2) It will take longer to cut interest rates, and the magnitude may be lower than market expectations unless there is a systemic risk or a sharp recession. Unlike raising interest rates, the condition for lowering interest rates is economic pressure. However, in the context of residents' healthy balance sheets, it is difficult for this round of economic downturn to enter a more serious recession, which means that the rate of interest rate cuts may be very small.#美联储是否加息？ #token2049 #解析cyber #带你看看币安Launchpad

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Many people think that there is no chance in a bear market. For contracts, they can’t even see the basic direction and the point is not good. If they don’t get in, they will be trapped. If they are trapped, they will resist. Cut, thrust back and forth, explode back and forth! Finally left the market tragically!

It is impossible to capture which currency will rise in the spot market and which sector will be favorable in the near future. Finally, I came across a high-quality doubling currency. It was too early to buy it and sell it! Why don't you buy a junk coin, get stuck as soon as you buy it, and then think that one day you will get out of the trap, but you don't know that some projects are just air coins, and they will even be removed from the shelves in the end! The project cannot be saved!

For assets, this meeting is more hawkish on the 2024 dot plot, causing interest rates to spike higher and U.S. stocks to fall. However, with the support of economic resilience, the market originally did not expect an interest rate cut to come so soon. At the same time, there are still large variables in the long distance of the interest rate cut path next year. This means that after the short-term "stress" reaction of U.S. debt and U.S. stocks, there will also be It is difficult to use it as a basis for trend trading. Overseas assets such as U.S. bonds, U.S. stocks, gold, etc. that rely on downward trading in U.S. bond interest rates may need to wait for more effective trend opportunities. However, we judge that tight credit pressure will become more obvious in the fourth quarter, which will provide better allocation opportunities. ►U.S. Treasuries: The cyclical combination of the end of monetary policy, credit tightening, and slow and declining growth but not recession means that the room for a sharp downward trend in interest rates has not yet opened up. In the short term, due to the decrease in interest rate cuts in 2024, it is difficult to use it as a basis for trend trading. Therefore, we maintain this view. 4.3% has already taken into account the room for another interest rate hike. There is not much motivation for another sharp rise, and we can choose the opportunity to make allocations again. Short-term debt is unlikely to see interest rate cuts, and long-term debt is unlikely to see the economy weaken. After growth pressure emerges in the fourth quarter, U.S. bond interest rates may have clearer downward trend trading opportunities. ►US stocks: Earnings are supported under the "rolling" slowdown, but liquidity and valuation may be disturbed; it is not recommended to chase higher, but you can intervene again if there are too many adjustments. In the case of a "rolling" slowdown, U.S. stock earnings are supported and the risk of deep adjustment is not great. Therefore, we are not worried about the pressure of a "Davis Double Kill"-style deep adjustment. However, at the valuation level, U.S. stocks may be under pressure: from a price point of view, interest rates remain high for the time being. From a quantitative point of view, we estimate that financial liquidity may bring an 8% to 10% correction pressure to U.S. stocks. Therefore, we do not recommend chasing highs. If the adjustment is too much, you can intervene again. ►USD: There is support in the short term, and the trend turning point awaits China’s growth. The relatively stronger growth momentum in the United States and the longer-lasting tightening cycle mean that it is difficult to see a sharp decline in the US dollar trend. According to the calculations of our model, the US dollar index will still have support, with support at 100 and resistance at 105. The turning point of the trend will wait for China's growth to recover (in the fourth quarter). ►Gold: Currently suppressed by real interest rates, we still need to wait patiently.We estimate that based on the actual interest rate of around 2.0% and the fluctuation range of US$100 to US$105, the central gold price is around US$1,950/oz. The current low gold price level (around US$1,930/oz) is basically reasonable. However, more gains still have to wait for growth pressure to emerge and expectations of interest rate cuts to be catalyzed, and we still need to wait patiently. #token2049 #美联储是否加息？ #fdusd #带你看看币安Launchpad #解析cyber

On Wednesday (September 6) in the Asian market, Bitcoin remained weak at $25,800. China’s negative army raided the encryption market, and technical warnings indicate that the currency price will continue to decline in the short term. China's top leader has spoken in support of digital renminbi, and Meituan, known as the "Chinese crypto whale" and holding a large amount of Bitcoin, signed a digital renminbi cooperation agreement with the Bank of China. Weibo announced the closure of 80 crypto opinion leader accounts and issued an announcement to prevent and handle virtual currency trading speculation. The total number of fans of these accounts exceeds 8 million.

The official account of Weibo Finance issued an announcement on preventing and dealing with virtual currency transaction speculation on Tuesday, saying that in order to implement the main responsibilities of enterprises, we must strictly implement the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China", "The Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks" and "The Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks". Securities Law", "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China", "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China", "Regulations on Preventing and Dealing with Illegal Fund Raising", "Decision of the State Council on Cleaning up and Rectifying Various Trading Venues to Effectively Prevent Financial Crisis", "State Council Office In accordance with the relevant management regulations of the Department's Implementation Opinions on Cleaning up and Rectifying Various Trading Venues, the site proactively investigates and receives complaints from users, and centrally handles information on illegal virtual currency transactions and speculation. According to relevant regulations, a total of 80 accounts were closed this time.

The House of Representatives criticized the SEC, and senators urged the SEC to approve ETFs. Gary Gensler, director of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), said: BTC does not meet the Howey test, which is the country’s law as a security, and BTC is not a security. U.S. senators urged the SEC to "immediately approve the spot BTC ETF", saying that the SEC's current "rejection position" is untenable. Back to the topic: U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Director Gary Gensler testified before the U.S. House of Representatives Financial Services Committee on September 27 at a hearing on SEC oversight issues. The U.S. House Financial Services Committee said: Throughout his entire term, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Director Gary Gensler blatantly ignored Congress, both when considering rulemaking and responding to lawmakers' oversight requests. Republicans will continue to hold Gensler’s SEC to long-overdue accountability. Encryption platform Gemini said that India is the world's leading center for entrepreneurship and technology development. In the next two years, it plans to double the number of employees in its Gurgaon office from 70 to more than 150 and invest 2 billion rupees to develop the Gurgaon office. Oka's Development Center. Glassnode data shows that the number of addresses holding more than 10 ETH hit a three-month low of 347,714. Greeks.live stated that block transactions are very active, with more than 10,000 call option transactions in the BTC block and more than 100,000 call option transactions in the ETH block. As quarterly delivery approaches, there are more large trades and position moves, and buyers are now paying some premiums. Franklin Templeton Asset Management filed a 196-4 filing to initiate the SEC’s official review process for its spot BTC ETF. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has postponed a decision on the proposed ARK21Shares BTC ETF until January 10 next year. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has postponed its decision on the issuance of a Bitcoin ETF by fund management company GlobalX. The next deadline for the resolution is November 21. Gary Gensler, director of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), said: Regarding the spot BTC ETF, it is cooperating with officials of the agency. Santiment data shows that BTC trading volume (in dollar value terms) is at its lowest level since March 2019. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has been criticized. U.S. House Financial Services Committee Director Patrick McHenry criticized SEC Director Gary Gensler for his lack of response to regulatory requests.Patrick McHenrv said: "You (referring to the SEC) have done nothing to correct legitimate and bipartisan concerns, which is shameful. Our patience is running out." McHenry threatened Gensler, saying that if Gensler continues to ignore regulatory requests, it will receive summons. McHenry pointed out: "I don't think you want to be the first SEC director to receive a congressional subpoena." From the perspective of regulators, U.S. lawmakers want to prevent BTC from falling outside of regulation and believe that the SEC approves BTC spot ETFs. Regulated spot ETFs make BTC acquisition more transparent and secure, and help enhance investor protection. SEC Director Gary Gensler said: Regarding the spot BTC ETF, it is working with members of the agency. This hearing increases the possibility of BTC spot ETF being approved. The U.S. fiscal budget is difficult to pass, and the risk of the federal government shutting down due to running out of funds is rising again. If there are no new remedies, there are only 5 days left before the deadline. Goldman Sachs said: the possibility of shutdown has risen to 90%. After the Securities and Exchange Commission is closed, the release of dozens of economic data affecting the Federal Reserve's November interest rate decision may be delayed, causing the Federal Reserve to postpone its interest rate hike discussion. Former Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein said: The 5.5% interest rate is excessive, the inflation rate may be within 3%, the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates earlier than expected, and a recession is still unlikely. Mathieu Rachete, head of equity strategy at Julius Baer, ​​said that the stock market is still likely to weaken further before mid-October. The stock market is bottoming out, the long-term bull market still exists, and the market may move higher before the end of the year. Xiaomo said: A soft landing seems to be important for the Federal Reserve, which has ended raising interest rates and will soon turn to cutting interest rates. This will constitute a major bullish factor for the stock market, and the S&P 500 Index will hit a new high in mid-2024. SEC director Gary Gensler believes that BTC is not a security. U.S. senators urged the SEC director to "immediately approve a spot BTC ETF." The House of Representatives criticized Gary Gensler for responding to regulations in a timely manner and passing a spot BTC ETF. Bernstein analysts said that the SEC will take a middle path and accept current spot ETF applications, and the likelihood of approval early next year will be greatly increased. The SEC has few options to retreat. If it is approved early next year and the spot ETF is listed on Nasdaq, then there will be no need to worry about the long-term topic of "insufficient funds on the market" that has plagued the market. The stock market is expected to reach a new high before interest rates are cut in the middle of next year. At the same time, it will bring enough capital increment to the big pie to support the new cycle.The current problems are all minor ones. ETFs and interest rate cuts will become the main driving forces of the new cycle. They will all happen, so don’t be impatient. Happy Mid-Autumn Festival and Happy National Day. Friends, during the holidays, go out more to enjoy the maples and scenery, spend more time with your family, rest more, and watch the market less. The old man will stop updating from September 28th to October 8th and adjust his work and rest time. #token2049 #美联储是否加息？ #fdusd #带你看看币安Launchpad #解析cyber

美联储讨论资产代币化的好处与风险。美联储报告称：代币化可能会成为数字资产生态系统的更大组成部分。"资产代币化"最突出的好处是降低进入其他难以进入市场的壁垒并提高该市场的流动性。风险是在足够大规模的情况下，代币化资产可以将波动性从加密资产市场传递到加密代币的参考资产市场。回归正题：美商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）表示，将于10月4日举办虚拟活动"技术与欺诈：阻止数字世界中的诈骗"。这是10月2日至9日世界投资者周的一部分，旨在提高人们对投资者教育和保护重要性的认识。香港证交会中介机构部发牌科总监兼金融科技组主管黄乐欣表示，设立过渡期是为了6月1日前已在港营运以及准备申请牌照的平台做准备，提供合理时间调整内部问题，以符合到证交会法规及要求。无论有没有设立过渡期，不法份子亦会继续进行不法行为，大众需提高警觉。香港证交会表示，将继续与香港特区政府及其他监管机构通力合作，一方面致力维护投资者利益和市场信心，另一方面缔造便利的营商环境，透过受规管的服务提供商推动本港Web3生态系统可持续和负责任地发展。亚马逊宣布，将向人工智能初创公司Anthropic投资高达40亿美元，以加强与竞争对手在云计算领域的竞争。Anthropic成立于2021年，2022年在B轮中获得由 FTX创始人SBF领投的5.8亿美元融资。CoinShares报告显示，上周数字资产投资产品，资金流出总额900万美元。太保投资管理（香港）有限公司 （太保资管香港）宣布，其现有第一类（证券交易）和第四类（就证券提供意见） 受规管业务已获得香港证交会批准升级。即日起，太保资管香港可向虚拟资产投资比例超过 10% 的基金提供分销和投资顾问服务。HTX（前HB）一个热钱包遭受攻击，导致了790万美元的损失。孙宇晨：HTX已全额承担黑客攻击造成的损失，用户资产安全平台运行正常。Bitwise提交了一份现货BTC ETF 申请的修正案。主要的变化是增加了一个部分，逐点论证美国证券交易委员会对其之前申请和研究的拒绝理由。Bitwise将其称为"异议"，在这份文件中有8项异议。彭博高级ETF分析师Eric Balchunas表示，嘉信理财刚刚宣布，他们将TIPS债券ETF和高收益ETF的费用削减至3个基点（与其他投资组合持平），说明了BTC ETF中你将看到残酷的费用战。SEC注册的投资顾问Roundhill Investments 表示，其ETH期货ETF(ETHX）的管理费为0.19%。目前灰度管理年费为2%。英国广播公司于9月26日3:00上线FTX创始人SBF纪录片《Down fall of the Crypto King（加密之王的垮台）》，类型为纪实、新闻。华尔街老牌资产管理Bernstein研报称：在BTC现货ETF上，美证交会（SEC）不会"编造另一个拒绝理由"，而是会走中间路线，接受与Coinbase 的监督协议，因为这些提议是由传统基金经理提出，并且协议是与纳斯达克等受监管的交易所签订，现货ETF在2024年初获批的概率大大增加，加密基金管理行业目前规模约450-500亿美元，未来五年内有能力超过5000亿美元，需求将来自投资顾问、财富和私人银行产品，以及在直接经纪账户中轻松访问BTC ETF的能力。当前大饼市值约5000亿美元，现货ETF获批后，带来的资金增量是值得期待的。彭博ETF分析师认为，BTC ETF将进入费用争夺战，当前灰度管理年费为2%，而其它老牌资管的管理费用可能会下降90%，扩大市场、争夺客户。美联储发布题为"代币化：概述和金融稳定影响"报告，该报告旨在提供代币化的背景知识，并讨论其潜在好处以及金融稳定风险。美联储称，许多涉及各类参考资产的项目正在开发中，这表明代币化可能会成为数字资产生态系统的更大组成部分。资产代币化最突出的好处是降低进入其他难以进入市场的壁垒并提高该市场的流动性。代币化的金融稳定风险，在足够大规模的情况下，代币化资产可以将波动性从加密资产市场传递到加密代币的参考资产市场。未雨绸缪，市场参与者们正在讨论BTC现货ETF 获批后的前景；监管者则在讨论资产代币话带来的好处与风险，尤其是"代币化"打破市场壁垒，提高传统市场流动性。看上去两者都是乐观的。"传统资管与市场监管者"预测的加密新市场，如果成真，从2024年的现货ETF开始，获益最多的可能就是BTC的原住民。在大饼十几年的发展前景讨论上，过去声音最多的是质疑，可大饼每次都成功兑现了价值跃升，所以，坚持是值得的，万一成功呢。时间很快，不妨就去看看。#token2049 #美联储是否加息？ #fdusd #带你看看币安Launchpad #解析cyber