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特许金融分析师(CFA)，专注BTC,ETH,热点币研究、分析和埋伏。微博：盲僧看趋势
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BTC: It closed with a small negative line yesterday and was blocked at the 5-day moving average. The US spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of 346 coins yesterday. This small amount of money cannot withstand the selling pressure in the market. In the short term, it will continue to fluctuate downward. The market may be affected by the upcoming large-scale Bitcoin options and the potential approval of the Ethereum ETF, and the volatility may increase tomorrow. In the process of the bull market, long-term investors can still hold the currency. $BTC
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Over $10 billion in BTC and ETH options expire on Friday
$6.68 billion worth of Bitcoin options and $3.5 billion worth of Ethereum options will expire on Friday, which is equivalent to more than 40% of the total notional options open interest on Deribit. Such large-scale option expiration usually triggers market volatility as holders need to adjust their positions.
Given the sheer size of the options markets for the two major cryptocurrencies, this event will have a significant impact on the spot market. At expiration, option holders enter into large spot trades to hedge or exercise their option positions. This will lead to increased price volatility for Bitcoin and Ethereum. From a macroeconomic perspective, the market is more optimistic about the future trends of Bitcoin and Ethereum. Traders expect the two cryptocurrencies to see another bullish trend next month, which is linked to a variety of factors, including improving macroeconomic conditions, continued attention from institutional players, and the overall health of the cryptocurrency market. However, we cannot ignore the potential risks, especially as market volatility increases, and any negative news could lead to a sharp correction.
Given the sheer size of the options markets for the two major cryptocurrencies, this event will have a significant impact on the spot market. At expiration, option holders enter into large spot trades to hedge or exercise their option positions. This will lead to increased price volatility for Bitcoin and Ethereum. From a macroeconomic perspective, the market is more optimistic about the future trends of Bitcoin and Ethereum. Traders expect the two cryptocurrencies to see another bullish trend next month, which is linked to a variety of factors, including improving macroeconomic conditions, continued attention from institutional players, and the overall health of the cryptocurrency market. However, we cannot ignore the potential risks, especially as market volatility increases, and any negative news could lead to a sharp correction.
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BTC: It closed with a small positive line yesterday. Although the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of 514 coins yesterday, the funds were still not enough to offset the selling pressure in the market. At this stage, the daily level has been fluctuating below multiple moving averages, and is currently suppressed by the 5-day moving average, indicating that short-term pressure is relatively high. Combined with the latest news and information, the remarks of Federal Reserve Board members Bowman and Cook have a greater impact on the market. Bowman believes that there will be no interest rate cuts in 2024, which suggests that the market may continue to be under high interest rate pressure for some time to come, which is not conducive to Bitcoin's performance. Cook pointed out that inflation is expected to slow significantly next year, which provides some support for long-term market optimism. Although Bitcoin may rebound in the short term due to its oversold state, it may continue to decline under the current high interest rate environment and market pressure, and caution is still needed. In the process of the bull market, long-term investors can still hold the currency. $BTC
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US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen a cumulative net outflow of $1.298 billion in the past two trading weeks
Recently, Federal Reserve Board members Bowman and Cook expressed their views on future interest rate policies, which attracted widespread attention from the market. Bowman made it clear that it is not the right time to cut interest rates yet, and he expects inflation to remain high for some time. At the same time, Cook mentioned that although the labor market is tight, it is not overheated, and inflation is expected to slow down significantly next year, and it will be appropriate to cut interest rates at some point.
Bowman's views reflect the Fed's cautious attitude towards the current economic situation. He believes that although the policy interest rate will remain unchanged for "some time", the inflation rate will eventually return to the target of 2%. However, this also means that the market needs to adapt to a higher interest rate environment for a longer period of time. Bowman also mentioned that there will be no interest rate cuts in 2024 and the time for interest rate cuts will be postponed to 2025. This statement undoubtedly brought clear guidance to the market and helped players adjust their expectations.
Bowman's views reflect the Fed's cautious attitude towards the current economic situation. He believes that although the policy interest rate will remain unchanged for "some time", the inflation rate will eventually return to the target of 2%. However, this also means that the market needs to adapt to a higher interest rate environment for a longer period of time. Bowman also mentioned that there will be no interest rate cuts in 2024 and the time for interest rate cuts will be postponed to 2025. This statement undoubtedly brought clear guidance to the market and helped players adjust their expectations.
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BTC: It closed with a medium-sized Yin line with large volume yesterday. The US Bitcoin ETF had a net outflow yesterday, and the compensation incident in Mentougou also brought a wave of panic selling. The lower shadow line indicates that the main force is trying to intervene, but in the short term, it is below the 5-day moving average, and it is still a bearish market. There may be further declines in the short term, so continue to wait. In the process of the bull market, long-term investors can still hold the currency. $BTC
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Mt.Gox to start BTC and BCH repayments in early July
The Mt. Gox trustee will begin repayment of Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash in early July 2024. According to Dune data, as of June 24, 2024, the number of Bitcoins held by Mt. Gox trustees was approximately 141,686, accounting for 0.72% of the circulating supply of Bitcoin, with a total value of approximately US$9.26 billion. This is a quantity that cannot be ignored. Although Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, believes that the selling pressure on Bitcoin caused by Mt. Gox will be smaller than expected, we still need to treat this view with caution. Specifically, Mt.Gox will ultimately distribute fewer tokens than people think. Creditors will receive 15% of the 141,868 Bitcoins, or approximately 95,000 Bitcoins, to pay their claims. About 20,000 tokens are owed to the claimant fund, 10,000 tokens are owed to Bitcoinica BK, and about 6,500 tokens are owed to individual creditors. Although these amounts may seem small, they still have a significant impact on short-term market fluctuations.
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BTC: The weekly level is now below the 20-week line, and the daily level closed with a small negative line. It is currently running below the 5-day moving average and the 120-day moving average, showing a short position. Under this negative decline mode, it is still in a weak consolidation stage, and there is still a risk of further decline in the short term. However, if it can break through 65,000, market sentiment will improve. In the bull market process, long-term investors can still hold the currency. $BTC
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Ethereum long-term holders are still accumulating
Since January this year, long-term Bitcoin holders (LTH) have begun to sell off their holdings. Specific data shows that this trend is closely related to the rise in Bitcoin market prices. This phenomenon usually occurs in the early stages of a bull market, and historical data also supports this view. Long-term holders take profits when prices rise until the market reaches the peak of the cycle.
On the other hand, the situation of Ethereum is different. While long-term Bitcoin holders are selling, long-term Ethereum holders are still accumulating assets. Currently, 27.5% of the total supply of Ethereum is staked, of which 16.3% of the staked ETH is re-staked through protocols such as Eigenlayer. This shows that the demand for native yields among Ethereum holders is very strong. In addition, long-term holders may be waiting for the approval of the Ethereum ETF and the arrival of the all-time high before deciding to sell.
On the other hand, the situation of Ethereum is different. While long-term Bitcoin holders are selling, long-term Ethereum holders are still accumulating assets. Currently, 27.5% of the total supply of Ethereum is staked, of which 16.3% of the staked ETH is re-staked through protocols such as Eigenlayer. This shows that the demand for native yields among Ethereum holders is very strong. In addition, long-term holders may be waiting for the approval of the Ethereum ETF and the arrival of the all-time high before deciding to sell.
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BTC: It closed with an inverted hammer yesterday. The long upper shadow line indicates that the bulls pushed up the price yesterday, but failed to maintain the upward trend. Although the bulls failed to successfully push the price up sharply, their counterattack force cannot be ignored, which may indicate the exhaustion of the bears. There may be further declines in the short term, but the short-term decline is relatively limited. Now this position may usher in a wave of rebound after a few days of adjustment, and finally continue to bottom out. In the process of the bull market, long-term investors can still hold the currency. $BTC
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