Since January this year, long-term Bitcoin holders (LTH) have begun to sell off their holdings. Specific data shows that this trend is closely related to the rise in Bitcoin market prices. This phenomenon usually occurs in the early stages of a bull market, and historical data also supports this view. Long-term holders take profits when prices rise until the market reaches the peak of the cycle.
On the other hand, the situation of Ethereum is different. While long-term Bitcoin holders are selling, long-term Ethereum holders are still accumulating assets. Currently, 27.5% of the total supply of Ethereum is staked, of which 16.3% of the staked ETH is re-staked through protocols such as Eigenlayer. This shows that the demand for native yields among Ethereum holders is very strong. In addition, long-term holders may be waiting for the approval of the Ethereum ETF and the arrival of the all-time high before deciding to sell.
According to reports, there have been some notable changes in the cryptocurrency market recently. First, the Ethereum network’s gas fees fell to their lowest levels since 2020. The drop in gas fees directly caused Ethereum’s consumption rate to drop to its lowest level in 12 months. Ethereum is currently experiencing slight inflation due to lower consumption rates, with its seven-day average supply growth rate at 0.56%/year.
This change is due to a decrease in gas demand due to reduced network activity or improved optimization mechanisms. For users, lower gas fees mean lower transaction costs, but it will bring certain challenges to network maintenance and miner incentives. At the same time, Bitcoin miners' income has also hit a record low. After the recent block reward halving event, Bitcoin miners' income per TH/s (7-day moving average) has reached an all-time low in the past two months. In addition to the block reward halving, another reason for the reduction in miners' income is the reduction in the number of new wallets. Currently, the number of new wallets is at its lowest level since 2018 (7-day moving average). The reduction in miners' income will affect the security of the Bitcoin network, because lower incentives will cause some miners to exit the market, thereby reducing the network's computing power. In addition, the reduction in the number of new wallets also indicates a decline in market activity and a slowdown in user growth.
The US government also holds 53,900 Ethereum, with a market value of about $187 million. Not only does the US government hold a large amount of cryptocurrency, but the German and British governments are no exception. The German government holds 47,179 Bitcoins, with a market value of more than $3 billion. The British government holds 61,245 Bitcoins, with a market value of about $3.9 billion. These data show that major countries are increasing their holdings of cryptocurrencies.
The large amount of Bitcoin and Ethereum held by the US government is likely obtained through law enforcement actions and asset confiscations. The increase in these holdings means that the government plays an increasingly important role in the cryptocurrency market. This has a positive impact on market stability and compliance. From an investor's perspective, the government's large holdings of cryptocurrencies can have an important impact on market prices. For example, if the government decides to sell some of its cryptocurrency holdings, it will cause market fluctuations. On the other hand, this also shows the government's confidence and recognition of the future of cryptocurrencies.
This week, crypto projects will unlock tokens worth $188 million. Here are the specific unlocking details:
AltLayer: 105 million ALT will be unlocked at 18:00 on June 25, accounting for 6.92% of the circulating supply, worth about $19.88 million. This is one of the projects with the largest unlocking volume this week, and its impact on the market is worth paying attention to.
Yield Guild Games: 16.69 million YGG will be unlocked at 22:00 on June 27, accounting for 4.48% of the circulating supply, worth about $10.65 million. This unlocking amount is relatively large, which may put some pressure on the market price of YGG.
SingularityNET: 8.57 million AGIX will be unlocked at 8:00 on June 28, accounting for 0.67% of the circulating supply, worth about $5.3 million. Although the unlocking amount is relatively small, it is still necessary to pay attention to the market reaction.
Echelon Prime: 750,000 PRIME will be unlocked at 8:00 on June 30, accounting for 1.83% of the circulating supply, worth about $7.79 million. This unlocking event may have a relatively mild impact on the market for PRIME.
Optimism: 31.34 million OP will be unlocked at 8:00 on June 30, accounting for 2.88% of the circulating supply and worth approximately US$56.1 million. This is one of the biggest unlocks of the week and could have a significant impact on the market price.
Ethena Labs: 14.89 million ENA will be unlocked at 15:00 on June 30, accounting for 0.87% of the circulating supply, worth about 8.96 million US dollars. Although the unlocking amount is not large, it is still necessary to pay attention to the market reaction.
Sui: 64.19 million SUI will be unlocked at 8:00 on June 31, accounting for 2.65% of the circulating supply, worth about 57.15 million US dollars. This is also one of the projects with a large unlocking volume this week, and we need to pay close attention to the market reaction.
BTC: The weekly level is now below the 20-week line, and the daily level closed with a small negative line. It is currently running below the 5-day moving average and the 120-day moving average, showing a short position. Under this negative decline mode, it is still in a weak consolidation stage, and there is still a risk of further decline in the short term. However, if it can break through 65,000, market sentiment will improve. In the bull market process, long-term investors can still hold the currency.
ETH: Linked to Bitcoin trend.
Shanzhai: All power is off. Wait patiently for Bitcoin to stop falling and stabilize before considering intervention.
The panic index is currently 51 (neutral) #比特币走势分析
