$6.68 billion worth of Bitcoin options and $3.5 billion worth of Ethereum options will expire on Friday, which is equivalent to more than 40% of the total notional options open interest on Deribit. Such large-scale option expiration usually triggers market volatility as holders need to adjust their positions.
Given the sheer size of the options markets for the two major cryptocurrencies, this event will have a significant impact on the spot market. At expiration, option holders enter into large spot trades to hedge or exercise their option positions. This will lead to increased price volatility for Bitcoin and Ethereum. From a macroeconomic perspective, the market is more optimistic about the future trends of Bitcoin and Ethereum. Traders expect the two cryptocurrencies to see another bullish trend next month, which is linked to a variety of factors, including improving macroeconomic conditions, continued attention from institutional players, and the overall health of the cryptocurrency market. However, we cannot ignore the potential risks, especially as market volatility increases, and any negative news could lead to a sharp correction.
Cryptocurrency is expected to be a focus of discussion in the upcoming presidential debate. Crypto advocacy group Stand With Crypto has launched an online letter-writing campaign, which has been signed by nearly 2,300 people, calling on CNN hosts to ask cryptocurrency-related questions. Sabrina Siddiqui, a spokesperson for the organization, said this would help voters understand the presidential candidates' positions on this important economic issue.
President Biden's digital asset policy record includes multiple executive orders and actions by regulators. These policies show his cautious attitude towards cryptocurrencies, especially the emphasis on strengthening regulation and consumer protection. Trump, on the other hand, has shifted from his past skepticism about cryptocurrencies to support cryptocurrency mining and explicit opposition to central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). This shift reflects his recognition of economic freedom and decentralized finance. Kristin Smith, CEO of the Blockchain Association, believes that this marks a significant progress in the national political debate for cryptocurrencies. She pointed out that this discussion will not only help improve the public's understanding of cryptocurrencies, but also push policymakers to take a clearer and more consistent stance in this area.
This Monday, VanEck executives met with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which aroused great attention from the market about the upcoming approval of the Ethereum ETF. Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research, revealed on the X platform that VanEck submitted Form 8-A seven days before the approval of the Bitcoin ETF, and a similar situation may happen to the application of the Ethereum ETF. Based on the current information, the market generally expects that the Ethereum ETF may be approved on July 2 (next Tuesday). The potential approval of the Ethereum ETF is of great significance to the cryptocurrency market. First of all, VanEck's Bitcoin ETF manages $600 million in assets. If the Ethereum ETF attracts 15-20% of the Bitcoin ETF funds, it will mean an inflow of about $2.8 billion. This amount is roughly equivalent to the amount of Ethereum perpetual futures open interest since May 20, which shows that the market is ready for this approval.
In addition, industry executives and other participants revealed that the SEC may approve the spot Ethereum ETF as early as July 4. Eight asset management companies, including BlackRock and VanEck, are actively seeking approval from the SEC. According to the predictions of Eric Balchunas, a lawyer for these companies and an ETF analyst, this approval may not take more than a week or two. Overall, the market is optimistic about the approval of the Ethereum ETF. Negotiations between asset management companies and regulators have entered the final stage, and only some "minor" issues need to be resolved. Players should pay attention to the progress of this key event, as it will bring new growth momentum to Ethereum and the entire cryptocurrency market.
The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of 346 coins yesterday, worth $21.4 million.
BTC: It closed with a small negative line yesterday and was blocked at the 5-day moving average. The US spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of 346 coins yesterday. This small amount of money cannot withstand the selling pressure in the market. In the short term, it will continue to fluctuate downward. The market may be affected by the upcoming large-scale Bitcoin options and the potential approval of the Ethereum ETF, and the volatility may increase tomorrow. In the bull market process, long-term investors can still hold the currency.
ETH: Linked to Bitcoin trend.
LISTA: Yesterday, the market closed with a large positive line with a certain volume, which has now deviated from above the 5-day moving average. It is advisable to reduce positions when the market is high today.
Panic Index currently stands at 40 (Fear) #以太坊ETF批准预期 #期权到期 #比特币走势分析
