Recently, Federal Reserve Board members Bowman and Cook expressed their views on future interest rate policies, which attracted widespread attention from the market. Bowman made it clear that it is not the right time to cut interest rates yet, and he expects inflation to remain high for some time. At the same time, Cook mentioned that although the labor market is tight, it is not overheated, and inflation is expected to slow down significantly next year, and it will be appropriate to cut interest rates at some point.
Bowman's views reflect the Fed's cautious attitude towards the current economic situation. He believes that although the policy interest rate will remain unchanged for "some time", the inflation rate will eventually return to the target of 2%. However, this also means that the market needs to adapt to a higher interest rate environment for a longer period of time. Bowman also mentioned that there will be no interest rate cuts in 2024 and the time for interest rate cuts will be postponed to 2025. This statement undoubtedly brought clear guidance to the market and helped players adjust their expectations.
Cook's remarks provide another perspective. He believes that although the current labor market is tight, it has not reached the level of overheating, and inflation is expected to slow down significantly next year. This view implies that although interest rate cuts are not an issue in the near future, they will become possible after inflation is effectively controlled. Cook's position provides some hope for the market, but also emphasizes the need to slow inflation. Judging from the market reaction, Bowman and Cook's remarks have a greater impact on the financial market. Bowman's tough attitude will lead to an increase in bond market yields, while Cook's relatively mild stance will provide some support to the stock market.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen a cumulative net outflow of $1.298 billion in the past two trading weeks. This data shows that market players are becoming more cautious, especially in the context of the overall decline in the current cryptocurrency market. Specifically, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust had the largest net outflow during this period, reaching $517.3 million. IBIT was the only ETF to achieve net inflows, with a net inflow of $43.1 million in the past two weeks. This contrast shows the difference in confidence among players in different ETFs, reflecting market concerns about the liquidity and management strategy of Grayscale Trust.
Jonathan de Wet, chief investment officer at ZeroCap, noted that Bitcoin prices are expected to fall to a key support level of around $57,000 in the coming weeks. This prediction is based on the selling pressure in the market, especially from the impact of repayments from Mt.Gox creditors. However, despite the downward pressure in the short term, de Wet remains optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects. This net outflow trend not only reflects the current market uncertainty, but also an expected response to future market volatility. Players are more inclined to withdraw funds from high-volatility assets such as Bitcoin ETFs when facing market downside risks. This phenomenon is worth paying attention to because it indicates that the market will experience more adjustments and fluctuations in the short term.
Recently, Matt Gaetz, a Republican congressman from Florida, proposed a bill requiring the IRS to accept Bitcoin as a payment method for federal income tax. This proposal is intended to promote the modernization of the tax system by allowing taxpayers to pay taxes with Bitcoin. If this proposal is passed, it will have a wide-ranging impact. The volatility of Bitcoin is one of its major characteristics. As a digital asset, the price of Bitcoin often fluctuates violently. For example, in the past year, the price of Bitcoin has soared from a low of about $30,000 to a high of nearly $60,000, and then fell back to about $40,000. Therefore, how to determine the tax payment value of Bitcoin will become an important technical and regulatory challenge.
The IRS needs to develop a comprehensive system to process Bitcoin payments. Currently, although Bitcoin is widely accepted as a payment method, its application in government systems is still limited. The IRS needs to ensure the security and stability of its system to prevent potential hacker attacks and technical failures. This proposal will have a significant impact on the Bitcoin market. As an investment tool, the market demand for Bitcoin mainly comes from the speculative behavior of players. If Bitcoin can be used to pay federal taxes, this will further increase its legitimacy as a means of payment, attract more players and users to enter the market, and drive up the price of Bitcoin.
The launch of Bitcoin payment app Strike in the UK marks an important step in its global expansion strategy. The app has been available to eligible UK customers, enabling individuals and businesses to buy, sell, send, withdraw and make global payments. This move has far-reaching implications for the UK's fintech and cryptocurrency markets.
From a technical perspective, Strike's iOS and Android managed applications allow users to buy Bitcoin directly from their bank accounts, which simplifies the cumbersome process of traditional Bitcoin purchases. Automatic conversion and scheduled purchase functions further enhance the user experience and will attract more users to the cryptocurrency market. It should be noted that the financial regulatory environment in the UK is relatively strict. Although Strike has achieved certain success in the United States, compliance issues and user education are still its main challenges in the UK market. The UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has a relatively conservative regulatory attitude towards cryptocurrencies, which may pose a certain obstacle to Strike's business expansion.
The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of 514 coins yesterday, worth $31 million.
BTC: A small positive line was closed yesterday. Although the US spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of 514 coins yesterday, the funds were still not enough to meet the market's selling pressure. At this stage, the daily level has been fluctuating below multiple moving averages, and is currently suppressed by the 5-day moving average, indicating that short-term pressure is relatively large. Combined with the latest news information, the remarks of Federal Reserve Board members Bowman and Cook have a greater impact on the market. Bowman believes that there will be no interest rate cuts in 2024, which indicates that the market may continue to be under high interest rate pressure for some time to come, which is not conducive to Bitcoin's performance. Cook pointed out that inflation is expected to slow down significantly next year, which provides some support for long-term market optimism. Although Bitcoin may rebound in the short term due to oversold conditions, it is possible to continue to decline under the current high interest rate environment and market pressure, and caution is still needed. In the process of the bull market, long-term holding of the currency is still sufficient.
ETH: Linked to Bitcoin trend.
SOL: Yesterday, a spinning hammer line was closed, and capital intervention was obvious. It is now above the 200-day moving average, and the market may maintain a volatile upward trend in the future.
ONDO: Yesterday, a spinning hammer line was closed. The MACD at the daily level is above the zero axis. The accumulation of funds is quite obvious, and there may be further upward movement in the future.
WIF: Yesterday it closed with a big positive line and is now above the 10-day moving average. After a brief adjustment, the market is expected to continue to fluctuate upward.
TRX: It closed with a small positive line yesterday and is now above the 120-day moving average. There is capital intervention in the short term and there may be further upward movement in the short term.
The panic index is currently 46 (fear) #Meme板块普涨 #Mt.Gox将启动偿还计划 #美联储何时降息？
