Let’s not mention it since it was too long ago. If we only look at the last bull market (2021-2022), Bitcoin was already halved for the third time. Bitcoin rose by up to eight times. After all, Bitcoin is already the number one cryptocurrency. The market value of big coins is already very high, and it is unlikely that they will rise dozens of times again. What about other coins?

The price of Ethereum that day was 188.6. It hit a historical high price of 4878 a year and a half later. It increased by 2486% in a year and a half, about 25 times. This was not a small coin that had just started. It was already the second largest Ethereum coin at that time. currency.

If we look further down, Cardano, ADA, which was ranked thirteenth at the time, had a price of 0.04768 that day. It also hit a historical high price of 3.09 about a year and a half later. It increased by 6380%, nearly 64 times, in a year and a half.

Over the past week, the market has continued to adjust deeply and is now stabilizing. Has the opportunity to buy at the bottom appeared?
Recently, the United States has significantly raised its deficit expectations, which reflects the intention of fiscal policy to support the economy. It is expected that the restart of fiscal efforts will further support market liquidity and the real economy, and the urgency and magnitude of interest rate cuts may be reduced. Affected by the performance of US stocks, Bitcoin rebounded after falling below $60,000 this week, while the performance of altcoins continued to be weaker than that of value coins.

Macro environment
Recently, US consumption and real estate data have been weak. Although the non-farm data in May was higher than Bloomberg's expectations (the same below), the broad employment data showed signs of further weakening. Corporate investment continued its recent improvement trend. Overall, the growth momentum of the United States has cooled down, but it still maintains a certain degree of resilience.

Last night, the application for Solana ETF caused SOL to suddenly pull up a few points, and also led the originally falling market to move upward.
Solana ETF is coming sooner than expected, but the approval rate is still unknown. Whether it is approved or not, it is enough to excite the dormant crypto community. After all, this round of the market can be described as an ETF bull market.

Bitcoin is the only bull
After the spot ETF was approved, BTC, as a representative of digital assets, became the first "logically proven" target in the cryptocurrency circle.
Bitcoin spot ETFs have given Wall Street a formal channel to allocate crypto assets, bringing a large amount of off-market funds to the crypto market. It can also be seen from the key nodes of Bitcoin's rise that the rise from $25,000 to $69,000 was almost entirely driven by ETFs. Whether it is a victory in a lawsuit or fake news, the stimulation of the news has always been a concern for the market.

A few months ago, the Bitcoin ecosystem was hot due to the transactions of inscriptions and runes. When the chain was congested, the fees were often hundreds of satoshis/bytes, and a large number of new projects and users actively poured into this track. However, the cycle of the Bitcoin ecosystem seems to be particularly short. Recently, the Bitcoin chain has fallen into silence, and the fee rate has returned to the average level of 10 satoshis/byte. Compared with the currently hot TON ecosystem and Solana ecosystem, the Bitcoin ecosystem is cool (and is once again close to the undervalued zone).
So, can inscriptions and runes regain their glory? Is there still the so-called second spring? Does the Bitcoin ecosystem still have a chance in this bull market?

With BTC’s recent brief drop below the $60,000 mark, market sentiment did a 180-degree turn overnight, going from 75% greed a week ago straight to 30% fear;
Since many people are talking about this index, let’s analyze it thoroughly today and see what kind of guidance the market sentiment index provides for trading.

First, we need to understand how the index is calculated.
It is calculated using 5 main weights:
1. Volatility: The current volatility of BTC price relative to the past 30 and 90 days. An abnormal increase in volatility can sometimes be a sign of excessive fear in the market.

Since the market started to pick up at the end of last year, Ethereum, the second largest cryptocurrency, has always underperformed Bitcoin and Solana in terms of price performance. Even though we may be in the middle of a bull market, ETH players are relatively indifferent.
We all know how Ethereum holders have felt in the past few months, watching other ecosystem users revel and crying alone with their full ETH warehouses. But the upcoming launch of the Ethereum spot ETF may reverse this dilemma!
Will the Ethereum spot ETF be open for trading? How much will it rise after listing? Will it bring the altcoins up with it? These are probably the issues that everyone is concerned about. Let’s analyze them for you.

Artificial Intelligence has been the hottest and most profitable niche since the beginning of this bull run, along with meme coins. Currently, AI tokens present an excellent buying opportunity in the market. I believe these tokens will outperform in the upcoming utility bull run and become market leaders.

In the first and second waves of artificial intelligence, many projects brought exponential returns to early investors, but caused heavy losses to latecomers.
Each wave has different sub-catalysts, narratives, and models that drive the development trend of artificial intelligence.

On June 19, the total crypto market value was $2.38 trillion, down 5.92% from the beginning of the month. BTC's market value accounted for 53.92%, up slightly from 52.66% at the beginning of the month. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is on a downward trend and is currently at a neutral level.

The combined market capitalization of Bitcoin and Ethereum is down 3.5% from the beginning of the month, while Altcoins are down 15%.
According to the rules of the previous two Bitcoin halvings, there is a 12-18 month interval between the halving time and the peak of the bull market. The rise is not achieved overnight, but is accompanied by fluctuations and periodic declines. This halving will occur on April 20, 2024, and the market is expected to start to improve by the end of 2024.

From the analysis of on-chain behavior, how low might BTC fall in the bull market under extreme circumstances? The overall logic is based on on-chain behavior analysis and historical data.
From the perspective of a short-term holder
Short-term holders are important participants in the transition from bull to bear market, so the performance of short-term holders has extremely important reference value in the bull market cycle.
As we all know, there were two terrifying black swan events in the last cycle, which also triggered a sharp drop in BTC prices. From the figure below, we can see that when the March 12 incident occurred, STH-MVRV was as low as 0.59; when the May 19 incident occurred, STH-MVRV was as low as 0.67. This means that on March 12, STH (short-term holders) suffered an average floating loss of 41%, and on May 19, STH (short-term holders) suffered an average floating loss of 33%. It can be seen how tragic the market was at that time.

Since it once rose to nearly $72,000 on June 7, Bitcoin has continued to fall recently. In the early morning of this morning (24th), Bitcoin fell below the short-term holders' realization price of $64,230, and then quickly fell to a low of $62,903. Just when I was writing this article, a negative news from Mentougou caused Bitcoin to fall rapidly to the 60,000 mark, with a minimum of 60,567.

The current market is really difficult to operate, and even the dogs have to lose some money to leave. Since the halving, most miners have not had a good time. They can only sell coins to maintain their computing power, and some have even lost money.
Bitcoin's rebound recovery is likely to start after "weak miners are eliminated" and computing power is restored. After the halving in 2020, the computing power recovered within 8 days; after the halving in 2017, it took 24 days to recover.