At 8 pm, the PCE data was released, which was consistent with the previous expected value, with the published data of 2.8%. Bitcoin followed the trend and the market touched 69,000 points. Later, DMM Bitcoin exchange was stolen with a value of 48 billion yen (the stolen amount was 4502.9 bitcoins), and the market collectively pulled back.

Let's talk about the PCE data first. The PCE data is one of the key indicators for measuring inflation. The data started from the highest position of 5.4% in February 2022, and slowly declined as the interest rate hike progressed. It has been stable at 2.8% for four consecutive months. Objectively, we believe that the current inflation remains at a relatively stable level. The unchanged data indirectly indicates that short-term and medium-term anti-inflation efforts have been hindered. So this data is not bad, but it is definitely not a long-term positive.

After the data was released, traders immediately increased their bets on the Fed's rate cuts within the year. The market generally expects at least one rate cut within the year. In other words, if there is only one rate cut, it will most likely start in December. Currently, the bets on the rate cut in September have rebounded slightly, and we need to observe the data for a few more months. PCE data is released once a month, and we expect the market to give better feedback.

The news of the exchange being stolen is really not the right time to come out today. This wave of PCE data is good for Bitcoin and Ethereum to slightly break through the previous pressure position. From a technical logic point of view, if they can be stabilized for a short time, there is a high probability that there will be a new round of high-level environment. The current situation has increased short-term uncertainty. It is not the first time that the exchange has encountered large-scale theft. Mentougou has been around for so many years, and the market impact is still lingering. Let's look forward to a proper solution.

Bitcoin spot ETF ended its 13-day net inflow yesterday, with a net outflow of 706 coins, about 49 million US dollars. Pay attention to the data tonight. If it turns to net inflow again, it is expected to stabilize the short-term support again and seek a further high position.

The Bitcoin closed the monthly line at night, and the monthly amplitude is currently 25%, with a monthly increase of about 11%. From a technical point of view, if there is no particularly good news in June, the probability of continued market fluctuations is relatively high. The logic of the fundamentals is that Bitcoin has no basis for a new low. It will either maintain the current large range of fluctuations or directly break through the previous pressure level to start a new round of breakthroughs, and the risk index will slowly decrease.

Babylon, a Bitcoin re-pledge agreement, has completed a financing of 70 million US dollars. As the Bitcoin ecological project with the best security and the longest sedimentation time, it is likely to become a top-level project in the Bitcoin ecology if it issues coins in the future. Ordi and others have continued to rise in the short term due to this news. In the medium and long term, you can pay proper attention to the Bitcoin ecology. At present, just for the inscription sector, 1% of the market value of the pie will still increase by a hundred times. If you ignore the short-term risks, the future will definitely be bright.

May is the most critical month of the year, and it has been safely passed under the premise of huge expected short-selling risks. Sanshu has always emphasized that as time goes by, in the deterministic interest rate cut cycle, the market will only move more and more deterministically. The market will not follow our established track, and the process is tortuous, but the cyclical trend must be referenceable.

The altcoin sector is still sluggish, and Grayscale submitted an S-3 agreement application today. As the biggest short-term thunder of Ethereum spot ETF, the time sequence of Grayscale and other institutions' listing will become our important short-term Ethereum escape indicator, and everyone should pay attention to this aspect. In addition to firm long-term holdings, the shipment point with great reference significance is before Grayscale ETHE is listed, and the new entry position is before Grayscale ETHE and other institutional ETFs approach the data balance point. After the details come out later, just pay attention to the article tips of Uncle San. In the short term, Ethereum is above strong support, and we will see a strong market in the short term.

The market is quite lively at the moment. The market fluctuated violently in the evening. The big pie has fallen several times. The meme sector has also become more active as the US election approaches. The expectation of short-term narrow and violent fluctuations is gradually increasing. Pay attention to the risks in short-term operations.

BTC: The trend of Bitcoin is moving within the pressure support range. After multiple false falls, with the increase of short-term short leverage data, it is very likely to have a real breakthrough in the short term. In the short-term market, pay attention to the support range near 67,000 points. The upper pressure level moves down to 69,000 points. Don't worry about the medium and long term. The shock will continue for a short time.

ETH: Ethereum's trend is linked to Bitcoin. Overall, the bullish trend of the daily line has not changed much. The bottom support is 3600 points and the trend support is 3750.

ORDI: The daily line is strong in the short term, and the short-term continuity of the market needs to be studied. Those who entered near the bottom of 36 points in the previous period can be partially sold first, and then look for opportunities to buy low when the long-term correction occurs.

JTO: A wave of linkage returned to the 3.5-point trend support, continue to pay attention to the first wave.

JUP: The structural support is around 1.0 points. In the short term, Bitcoin can maintain the support. JUP has the opportunity to rebound with the support as the starting point.

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