Half a month ago, the American HBO channel announced that it would broadcast a documentary called "Electronic Currency: The Mystery of Bitcoin" on the 8th of this month, and would reveal the true identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, which caused quite a stir in the market at the time. I finished watching the more than 100-minute film today. The ending hinted that Satoshi Nakamoto was a Canadian cryptocurrency expert named Todd, but Todd denied it with one click. Satoshi Nakamoto is still a mystery after all.
The current on-chain data shows that the wallet marked as Satoshi Nakamoto has 1.14 million bitcoins. Since the last bubble in 2010, there has been no movement, as if it has never existed. Bitcoin's development over the years tells us that a decentralized product without a physical founder is valuable. Looking at Ethereum now, it is two extremes.
The CPI data released tonight were both higher than expected. Affected by the data, the US stock market and the big cake fell again. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in November increased again, and the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is now greater than the probability of no rate cut. This data is definitely bearish for the risk market in the short term, and it directly shows that the US economy is still strong. From the side, I tend to believe that the first 50 basis point rate cut in this round has greatly curbed the probability of the possible future black swan.
Of course, the data of the cyclical market can only bring short-term impact, and the essence of the continuation of the long-term interest rate cut cycle has not changed at present. For the crypto market, there is still room for future heights, it depends on whether we are still in the market at that time. Compared with the previous rounds in history, this round of bull market is the most difficult to make money, so keep going.
In terms of macro data, Bitcoin spot ETFs had a net outflow of 30.6 million US dollars yesterday, while Ethereum remained unchanged. The Bitcoin whale in the circle increased its holdings by 750 bitcoins again after half a year. The total number of wallets with more than one Bitcoin increased by more than 12,000 last month, and the Ethereum Foundation sold 100 ethers again today. At this point, I was thinking that the most intuitive benefit of tokens without founders may be that there is no need for project expenses.
The market situation in the circle is like this for the time being. The high and low points of the short cycle have been within the published four-hour chart range, and the operating space is really limited. The A-share market next door also began to stabilize after the profit-taking yesterday. It is expected to continue to move upward steadily in the future. The implementation of policies has been one after another.
In any case, Sanshu still does not recommend that traditional crypto people switch to the A-share market. There is only so much money, so how can ordinary retail investors be a match for the rule makers?
BTC: Bitcoin's recent technical trend line has basically not changed. The bulls have shown signs of weakness twice. From a technical perspective, there is a great demand for a downward correction. The trend pressure at the high point has stabilized and stopped below 64,000 points. The market has just hit 60,000 points. It is still a trend to continue to go down. The short-term operation logic and points described in the previous article are already very accurate. The conservative medium- and long-term strategy in operation is either to wait for the big cake to break through and establish a reversal signal to chase, that is, above 66,000 points, or to fall below 58,000 points and bottom out. The short-term pressure of the daily line is 63,200 points, and the small support is 58,000 points. The direction is short.
ETH: Ethereum is linked to Bitcoin. It is relatively resistant to declines during sharp drops, but there is really nothing to say about the trend. Let's wait for Bitcoin to recover.
Bottom-picking targets: Wait until Bitcoin pulls back before intervening. First of all, it is the public chain sector. SUI is very resistant to declines. Several stocks that I have paid attention to before, such as AVAX, NEAR and TON, can still be paid attention to after the decline. TIA said before that it will not take the callback after intervening, and it will be avoided by the big unlocking at the end of the month.
The Fear and Greed Index is 39 during the day.
I recovered a physically invalid cold wallet containing one million coins after a period of hard work. I will summarize the path in a few days. If you have lost related coins and assets, you can exchange them together. If nothing goes wrong, it will be a windfall if you get it back.
Finally, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot goods! #6万保卫战 #SCR新币挖矿开始！ #CPI&PPI来袭，美国通胀升还降？ #9月美国CPI实现6连降 $BTC
