The contradictions in data have appeared frequently in the past six months. For example, when the unemployment rate rose, the non-farm data was off the charts, or a certain data was bearish on an annual basis but bullish on a monthly or quarterly basis. The direct impact of this is the short-term long-short pull of the market, which often shows us a short-term disorderly path over time.

With the bearish data yesterday and the probability of a 25 basis point cut in November continuing to rise, the bitcoin market fell below 59,000 points at around 3 a.m. this morning, and then pulled up for the whole day. With the positive PPI data in the evening and the negative inflation data in early October, the probability of a subsequent 50 basis point rate cut increased, and the bitcoin market returned to around 62,000 points. The short-term market is once again hovering between continuing to fall or reversing!

The market trend chart of Uncle San a few days ago gave two possible future paths, and the four-hour market was also announced in the relevant group. The first is that the bottom was reached in the morning, and the four-hour W-shaped trend directly rebounded; the second is that after a short shock, it continued to drop below 58,000 points, and then bottomed out again. Of course, no matter which form it is, the premise for the short-term bullish recovery is at least to break through and stabilize at 64,000 points again.

Corresponding to the operation, whether it is to choose to buy again below 60,000 points in the early stage, or to wait for the lower point, it is right. The next wave delivery point is around 64,000 points. The long-term holding point is to continue to patiently wait for the opportunity of the lower point, or wait for the establishment of the reversal signal. There is no conflict between the points. The intervention of the lowest point range and the tracking after the breakthrough reversal are both very conservative forms of long-term strategy.

According to data, yesterday the Bitcoin spot ETF had a net outflow of 120 million US dollars, and the Ethereum spot ETF had a net inflow of 3.06 million US dollars. The short-term reference value of this data is not significant.

In terms of the market cycle, if the adjustment after Bitcoin’s halving continues for another half a month, it will have created a historical record of not starting a new bull market for 300 days after the halving. One history that has been created this year is that it reached a new high before the halving. Of course, all this is due to the approval of Bitcoin’s ETF.

There is no clear conclusion on whether ETF is good or bad for the crypto market. In my opinion, it is definitely bad in the long run. The essence of web3 is decentralization. Excessive involvement of centralized entities is not a bad thing in itself, but excessive control by centralized entities is directly opposed to the bottom of the market.

We are experiencing a bull market without any historical reference. It is unknown where this bull market will end, and it is unknown when the highlight of this bull market will begin. The logic of the 12-year bull market cycle has undoubtedly been broken, and the hellish experience has truly become everyone's reality.

As for the future, this circle is generally optimistic. Look at Big A, when the wind comes, it is just a matter of a moment, and we are always full of expectations.

BTC: The high point of the Bitcoin range is 64,000 points, and the low point of the range is around 58,000 points. The low point is infinitely close in the morning, and the high point is expected to be tested in the evening. There is no direct reversal signal in the direction at present. The downward trend is an adjustment, and the upward rebound is for the enhancement of the expectation of a 50 basis point interest rate cut, so there is not much difference in the overall operation. When each new market signal comes out, the trend line will be updated to the corresponding group in time. Just keep paying attention. In the evening, focus on whether it can break through the 64,000 point position. If not, the market situation of the previous week is still normal.

ETH: Ethereum is linked to Bitcoin, the trend is not independent, so let’s wait and see until Bitcoin recovers.

Some altcoins: The sports sector had a collective fermentation yesterday. Generally, this sector will have several waves of momentum after the first wave and a short adjustment, and the single increase is more than 50%. You can focus on a few top ones and run when they are in place. Secondly, it is the public chain sector. SUI is very resistant to declines and is close to pulling back to its previous high during the day. The rebound of several AVAX, NEAR and TON that we have paid attention to before is also good. All signs show that the top altcoins can no longer hit new lows.

The Fear and Greed Index is 32 during the day.

I recovered a physically invalid cold wallet containing one million coins after a period of hard work. I will summarize the path in a few days. If you have lost related coins and assets, you can exchange them together. If nothing goes wrong, it will be a windfall if you find it back.

Finally, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot goods! ​​​#9月美国CPI实现6连降 #粉丝代币板块普涨 #特朗普当选概率上升 $BTC