Bitcoin broke through the 63,000 daily trend reversal point three times in a row without anyone being prepared. The booster for the brief rise was the complete liquidation of Bitcoin by the German government in the short term. The triggering point of the bullish sentiment was the dangerous situation of former US President Trump who supported the encryption industry yesterday. The essence of the market that produces short-term highs is the reversal of market supply and demand.
In the past three months, the main force chose to go sideways and downward after breaking through the previous historical high, and continued to fall to create a new low trend, thereby trapping a large number of retail investors who entered the market to buy the bottom. In addition, after two consecutive rounds of more than 5% declines, the market sentiment took a sharp turn for the worse, and panic selling continued. Finally, after the bloody chips were absorbed to the extreme, the market ushered in the first wave of emotional reversal.
On the macro side, after the German government completely sold off its coins, the only remaining open pit is the 141,600 coins in Mentougou. The transfer of 40,000 coins in Mentougou temporarily led to a downward trend in the market. Official news is expected to distribute compensation in 7-14 days, so if the market selling pressure is taken into account, it is relatively safe in the short term within a week.
A week later, when retail investors received the compensation chips, Sanshu believed that the potential selling pressure would be much lower than that of the German government, and would be far lower than expected. After years of negotiations, retail investors have already considered this money dispensable. Secondly, the breadth of the number of people covered by the compensation has led to the inability to sell in a centralized manner like the German government. The inability to sell in a centralized manner means a temporary increase in trading volume for the reservoir of the pie. The aftermath will soon pass, and we cannot guarantee how many people will choose to get this bull market high after receiving this unexpected wealth that may not have existed.
In terms of macro-positive factors, the U.S. Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of 301 million U.S. dollars yesterday, marking the seventh consecutive trading day of net inflow; the U.S. SEC officially announced that the trading of Ethereum spot ETF will begin on the 23rd; the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in September in polls has now reached 100%, and as the probability of Trump's victory increases, the probability of three consecutive interest rate cuts in September, November and December of the year has also increased significantly.
But even so, after the big cake breaks through 63,000 points in the short term, there is still a huge space for confirmation. The trend for a period of time in the future will rebound in hesitation and reach new highs in shock. The purpose is to kill retail investors, let those who have the courage to buy the bottom and take profits in the small range, let those who are ready to chase highs miss out in doubt, and let the four shorts who are waiting for the low of 40,000 miss the next round of main rising waves.
After all, we are just passers-by in the trend cycle. Since we are just passers-by, why should we insist on short-term maneuvers? Be a practitioner of the trend, and what is supposed to come will surely come!
BTC: Bitcoin's short-term capital activity has soared. After a strong breakthrough, there is a short-term need for technical correction and repair. The bottom is expected to be able to step on the 63,000-point support to test the strength of the bulls. The trend cycle is close to reversal, but it is still waiting for the final technical confirmation, so just maintain a reasonable holding attitude. In the medium-term market, even if the short-term bulls confirm the reversal, it is not expected to go out of the new high before the interest rate cut begins, and the short-term selling pressure brought by the listing of the Ethereum spot ETF next week will cause a certain degree of high-level fluctuations in the market. However, in terms of the cycle trend, the previous bottom of 53,000 points will definitely not be seen within the year. The short-term market trend is upward, and the bottom of the small cycle correction focuses on 63,000 points, and the pressure level is 65,000 points.
ETH: Ethereum's short-term bottom is really around 3,000 points. According to the news, the Ethereum spot ETF will be launched on the 23rd. At present, the order of listing by institutions has not been detailed. Here, we still focus on Grayscale and Grayscale's pre-sale announcement. If Grayscale's plan last week is followed, the selling pressure may not be as great as before Bitcoin. Objectively speaking, positive inflows will be realized after the short-term panic. In terms of operation, it is right for the recent bottom-fishing to sell some goods appropriately, and then intervene in the callback caused by the negative impact of the positive landing. The trend is linked to Bitcoin.
The altcoin season has not yet arrived. No matter what the logic of VCs and project parties in this bull market is, altcoins will definitely go through a wave of increases when the big market comes. The capital premium is sufficient to support the current rollout of altcoins on the market. Just lie in ambush and continue to wait patiently.
The Fear and Greed Index is 65 during the day.
Finally, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot goods! #山寨季何时到来？ #以太坊ETF批准预期 #美国6月CPI大幅降温 #美联储何时降息？ $BTC
