The "Sober Chat Options" planet has been operating for 125 days. What have I done?
First of all, I would like to thank these more than 130 friends for their support so that this knowledge planet can continue to operate.
1. What was my original intention that led me to open Knowledge Planet?
The original intention of starting Planet was that I found that I had written free articles before, but there was no response or interaction in my tweets or in my circle of friends. At the same time, there are some opportunities or strategies that do not have such large capital capacity and dare not publicly call for orders on Twitter. So I opened a planet and told everyone about it quietly. This TLT directly allowed everyone to trade the risk reversal strategy (see the picture below, bullish, the bottom area is obvious)
I made 10 times the profit in about one month.
At that time, I really felt that my investment knowledge was monetized, and products with high certainty like U.S. bonds had a guaranteed bottom line. With this kind of profit-loss ratio opportunity, "it is really fun to lead everyone to make money."
The initial planet price was 299, and the first batch of friends who came in all earned at least 30 years of planet fees.
Later, I felt that the platform of Planet was quite interesting. There were many things that were difficult to say on a public platform, or if you said that no one would respond to you, it was really good. What I said was rich in knowledge, and it was a platform that was even better than Binance Square or Twitter. Rich platform.
In these 125 days, Planet has many more valuable things than Twitter and WeChat group chats, with a total of 203 articles.
Covers: Mosaic, macro, US stocks + US bonds, big A, in-depth articles.
The price has also increased from 299 at the beginning to 699 now.
2. What have I done in these four months?
As shown in the picture above, these 203 articles cover 3 major markets. Tiezi who posted the article knows that the main content I share on Twitter is encryption. In fact, my big A and US stocks are not idle at all. You can read my article The distribution is known.
Initially, it was more about sharing crypto opportunities to cater to fellow stars on the planet, but in fact, considering that I am a big A person who transferred from traditional finance and U.S. stocks, I am actually better at many targets. Since everyone comes to the capital market, they all make money, and big Most players also have decentralized configurations, so good wealth passwords should be shared with players who recognize them, so I will try my best to share as much as I can.
Several specific typical operating opportunities
①When I started doing Planet in October, it happened to be the Yazhan Options Trading Competition.
Conducted 3 live broadcasts (and recordings at the same time) for novice options players, telling them how to become proficient in basic options operations in a short period of time; at the same time, the team won the second place in the deribit option competition team.
Everyone probably got 300-500 US dollars.
② From October to December, we took everyone to seize the opportunity of 20-year U.S. bonds.
I repeatedly remind everyone to get on the spot in the range of 83-87 US dollars, and use the risk reversal strategy to earn call-side profits with small profits and big profits. In this wave, even if it is now US$93, the spot income is 12% (and there are dividends every month); the option income is 8-10 times.
③ Perform long gamma operations on Bingtangcheng and Auntai.
I have been prompted several times about long rock sugar orange gamma’s bull market spread opportunities, and the profit-loss ratio is always 10 to 1;
In addition, before the Spring Festival, I would like to remind everyone to study the fundamentals of Auntai. The effect of this round of supplementary increase will be very strong, and three strategies are suggested.
Put spread, risk reversal, and diagnal spread are all bullish strategies.
④ Prompts some risks
Pitfall avoidance guide, respectively prompting DMA sharing and quantifying private equity fund risks
⑤ Long A-share CSI 300 call on February 2
It was more than 2,600 points at that time. When the A-share market was at its most desperate, it prompted us to start a long call.
3. What will I do next?
I will talk to you in depth about my old profession. The asset allocation series is an important series this year. In investment, many people are entangled in tactical aspects, such as macro analysis, industry research, individual stock selection, and specific strategies. Factor dismantling. It requires not only macro-level strategic timing, but also micro-level breakdown of each manager's specific strategies as if they are crystal clear, and doing a bunch of things with a low winning rate.
However, it is very lazy strategically, and has not even established an asset allocation framework with a high winning rate.
Therefore, we hope to use more than 5-10 articles to help everyone clearly build an asset allocation framework.
At least the strategy should be clear first so that no one makes big mistakes. At present, the update is basically completed, and we will continue to check for leaks and fill in the gaps in the future. We will also slowly lead everyone to continue to build their own framework in actual combat.
4. Option practice
I will further carry out various online and offline teachings so that everyone can better understand option strategies in a practical way.
Options private training class is a practical product line developed by me.
5. Why do prices continue to rise?
Why continue to increase prices?
If a good investment strategy has limited capacity, the manager must give priority to the best investors. The best investors are the old friends who gave you help when you were broke in the early days of your business.
When you join the planet, we will find ways to get you value that far exceeds the planet fee. Our energy is limited and we don’t want too many people to join. We only want to provide value to those who recognize us the most.
The old guys who joined Planet in the early days of its establishment, when there was no content, are the ones who support us the most and trust us. We must give them more preferential treatment.
The current fee is 699 yuan per year. How can we get more than 100,000 yuan or even more than one million in value? After thinking about it, we decided to remove the above content and add the following rights to Planet viewers:
Write at the end:
Friends who are waiting for planet discounts, don’t wait. Our principle is that we cannot let new members have lower prices than any old members. (If I have the marketing energy, I might as well write research reports. I’m not good at operations and fan building)
It is now 699 yuan, and it was 299 yuan at the earliest; there is a high probability that the price will still increase in the future, and this increase is much higher than that of other major types of assets.
It is recommended that players with relatively large investable assets join before joining, as they hope to provide value that far exceeds the planet fee.
E0021.26-03-09 | Digital Gold in the Smoke: How to Use Options to Hedge the Tail Risks of the Middle East Situation?
Sober Options Studio × Derive.XYZ Joint Production Written by Sober Options Studio Analyst Jenna @Jenna_w5 1. Macroeconomic Overview: The Middle East Powder Keg and the Repricing of Global Assets Entering the first quarter of 2026, the global capital markets have faced a highly symbolic geopolitical shock. Unlike the sporadic conflicts of the past few years, the direct military confrontation between the United States, Israel, and Iran touches not only the global energy lifeline—the Strait of Hormuz—but also triggers severe turmoil in Iran's supreme power structure on a political level. The impact of this event has quickly spilled over from the military realm to the financial system, becoming one of the most important uncertain variables in the current global asset pricing.
E0020.26-03-02 | Defense Guide Under the Shadow of US-Iran Conflict: How to Use Options to Build a Firewall in Advance?
Sober Options Studio × Derive.XYZ Joint Production Written by Sober Options Studio Analyst Jenna @Jenna_w5 1. Macro Panorama: Escalation of Middle East Conflicts and the Repricing of Global Risk Assets On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel carried out a joint military strike against Iran, resulting in the assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The significance of this event far exceeds that of a traditional military action, as it directly touches the core of the Iranian regime's power rather than merely weakening its military capacity. From the perspective of capital markets, the market has never feared war itself, but rather the structural uncertainties that war may trigger, especially when conflicts involve regime stability, leading to fundamental changes in asset pricing models.
E0019.26-02-23 | A Storm is Coming, Does Your BTC Have a Seatbelt? - A Comprehensive Analysis of Bear Market Spread Strategies
Sober Options Studio × Derive.XYZ Joint Production Written by Sober Options Studio Analyst Jenna @Jenna_w5 1. Macro Panorama: The 'Legal Collapse' and Reconstruction of the Tariff System - A Repricing Starting Point for Macro Uncertainty On February 20, 2026, the global capital markets experienced a far-reaching institutional shock: The U.S. Supreme Court officially ruled that the large-scale tariff measures previously implemented by the U.S. government under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) lacked clear legal authorization. This ruling not only undermines the core legal foundation of the U.S. tariff system over the past year but also directly triggers a comprehensive reconstruction of the tariff policy, fiscal revenue, international trade relations, and the risk pricing logic of financial markets.
E0018.26-02-15 | When the market begins to price in a crash: How the Collar strategy reshapes your return distribution?
Sober Options Studio × Derive.XYZ joint production Written by Sober Options Studio analyst Jenna @Jenna_w5 1. Macro Overview: The true trigger of BTC's historic collapse and liquidity crunch 1) From 120,000 to 60,000: This is not a pullback, but a 'liquidity structural collapse' In the past week, Bitcoin rapidly fell from a high of $120,000 to around $60,000, a decline of nearly 50%. This is not a traditional cyclical pullback, but a typical non-linear collapse driven by liquidity cascade. To understand this round of decline, we must break out of the linear framework of 'negative news → price drop' and understand it from the feedback loop of derivatives structure, funding leverage structure, and options hedging behavior.
E0017.26-02-09 | The Bithumb Incident is Just the Beginning: How Options Can Help You Hedge When the Black Swan Arrives?
Sober Options Studio × Derive.XYZ Joint Production Written by Sober Options Studio Analyst Jenna @Jenna_w5 1. An absurd incident, how did it leverage a panic low of $60,000? 1.1 From 'Random Treasure Chest' to 'Phantom Bitcoin': A textbook-level operational risk incident On the evening of February 6, a 'low-level error' occurred on Bithumb, Korea's leading cryptocurrency exchange, which is enough to be recorded in industry risk textbooks. At 19:00 that evening, Bithumb launched a marketing campaign called 'Random Treasure Chest' as planned. The design of the activity itself is not complicated: users participate in a lottery using points, with each person's theoretical winning amount between 2,000–50,000 KRW (approximately 9.5–237 RMB), which is a typical low-value user incentive.
E0016.26-02-02 | After the Fall of Gold and Silver: An Options Defense Guide Under the Fed Leadership Change
Sober Options Studio × Derive.XYZ Joint Production Written by Sober Options Studio Analyst Jenna @Jenna_w5 1. Macroeconomic Overview: The Reversal of 'Monetary Trust Trade' Under the Expectation of a Fed Leadership Change 1.1 Asset Repricing Within a Day: Precious Metals Encounter Historical 'Deleveraging Moment' Last Friday, global macro assets underwent a highly asymmetric and severe repricing. Spot silver (XAGUSD) once plunged over 35% during trading, setting a record for the largest single-day decline since records began; gold (XAUUSD) fell by 11%, marking the worst day since January 1980. In stark contrast, the US Dollar Index (DXY) rose by 0.9% in a single day, and the yield on the US 10-year Treasury quickly rose to 4.24%, while the S&P 500 Index only slightly retreated by 0.4%.
E0015.26-01-26 | The TACO Trading Reappearance and Japan's 'Truss Moment': Ultimate Defense Strategy Guide Under Surging Volatility
Sober Options Studio × Derive.XYZ Joint Production Written by Sober Options Studio Analyst Jenna @Jenna_w5 I. Macroscopic Overview: The TACO Storm, the Japanese Bond Crash, and the Misalignment of Risk Aversion Logic Standing at the closing moment of January 2026, the global financial markets are undergoing an extremely rare, multidimensional liquidity test. Unlike past pricing logic driven by single inflation or recession data, the current macro environment is exhibiting unprecedented fragility. This uncertainty does not stem from the traditional cycle of change, but rather from a 'paradigm shift' triggered by the weaponization of geopolitical tools and capital.
E0014.26-01-19 | How to Leverage the CLARITY Act in Gaming? — Practical Strategies for Cryptocurrency Options in the Macro Noise of 2026
Sober Options Studio × Derive.XYZ Joint Production Written by Sober Options Studio Analyst Jenna @Jenna_w5 I. Macroscopic Overview: Compliance Implementation and Global Liquidity Restructuring Entering January 2026, the cryptocurrency market is at a critical point of transition from the 'gray area' to a 'rule of law framework'. This week's core variables focus on two dimensions outside of Federal Reserve policy: first, the legislative power struggle regarding the (CLARITY Act), and second, several certain events in the global macro environment with potential 'black swan' characteristics. 1.1 (CLARITY Act) In-depth Analysis: Redistribution of Regulatory Power
E0013.26-01-12 | The 'Calm Period' Before the Tariff Ruling: Options Defense Guide Amid Geopolitical Aftermath and Tariff Negotiations
Co-produced by Sober Options Studio × Derive.XYZ Written by Jenna, Analyst at Sober Options Studio @Jenna_w5 I. Macro Overview: Legal Ruling on Tariffs and Global Liquidity Allocation Logic Entering the second week of January 2026, the core logic of global asset pricing is shifting from instantaneous shocks due to geopolitical events to博弈 over institutional uncertainties. Market participants are adjusting their positions in anticipation of upcoming legal rulings and the end of the macro data vacuum period. 1.1 Legal博弈 on Tariff Policies: 200 Billion USD Risk Pricing under the IEEPA Framework
Sober Options Studio × Derive.XYZ Joint Production Written by Jenna @Jenna_w5, Analyst at Sober Options Studio I. Macro Overview: Precious Metal Premiums and Geopolitical Pricing Standing at the starting point of 2026, reviewing the performance of major asset classes over the past year, a significant shift has occurred in the logic of global capital allocation, with funds moving from purely valuation-driven to a defensive allocation towards physical assets. Digital assets underperformed in 2025, while assets with physical attributes underwent a comprehensive revaluation. Entering 2026, the market faces the dual impact of unforeseen geopolitical events and macroeconomic legal maneuvering, leading to a restructuring of risk pricing models.
E0011.25-12-29 How to Navigate the 'Liquidity Cliff' with a Collar Strategy? — A Defense Guide for the 2026 Cryptocurrency Options Market
Sober Options Studio × Derive.XYZ Joint Production Written by Sober Options Studio Analyst Jenna @Jenna_w5 I. Macroeconomic Overview: Risk Accumulation in a Low Volatility Environment and Potential Shocks in 2026 As the Christmas holiday trading cycle comes to an end, global financial markets appear to be operating in a state of high stability on the surface. Whether it is the VIX fear index continuing to operate in historically low ranges or major cryptocurrency asset prices oscillating within a narrow range, they all point to a strongly consensual market environment: systemic risks seem to be effectively suppressed in the short term. During December, U.S. stocks and cryptocurrency assets did not experience the concentrated selling pressure that some investors had previously anticipated, primarily due to U.S. macroeconomic data consistently demonstrating unexpected resilience, while major central bank policy expectations have been fully absorbed by the market.
E0010.25-12-22|The Tug of War in U.S. and Japan's Monetary Policy: A Guide to Crypto Options Hedging Under Reshaped Global Liquidity
Sober Options Studio × Derive.XYZ Co-produced Written by Sober Options Studio Analyst Jenna @Jenna_w5 1. Macro Economic Barometer: Will the Policy Divergence Between the U.S. and Japan Reshape Global Liquidity? This week, the global financial markets have entered a rare moment of 'policy scissors difference.' On one side, the world's largest economy, the United States, has shown unexpected signals of slowing inflation, indicating a faster pace of interest rate cuts; on the other side, Japan, which has been in a state of extreme easing for a long time, has officially entered the peak of interest rate normalization. The changes in interest rate differentials between the U.S. and Japan are profoundly reshaping the logic of global capital flows.
E009.25-12-15|'Systematic Overestimation of Non-Farm' and 'Yen Shock': Defensive Strategies for Cryptocurrency Options Under Multiple Uncertainties
Sober Options Studio × Derive.XYZ Joint Production Written by Sober Options Studio Analyst Jenna @Jenna_w5 1. Macro Barometer: Powell's 'Non-Farm Blunder' and Market Game in the Yen Rate Hike Wave This week, the cryptocurrency options market has shown significant oscillation characteristics under the intertwining of multiple complex macro signals. On one hand, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's rare acknowledgment of the 'systematic overestimation' of non-farm payroll data has greatly strengthened market expectations for accelerated interest rate cuts; on the other hand, the Bank of Japan is about to end the negative interest rate era and is preparing for multiple interest rate hikes, which may trigger large-scale unwinding of global liquidity providers—yen carry trades—bringing uncertainty to global markets. Coupled with the tightening of liquidity as the year-end approaches and the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling on the legality of Trump's tariffs, market sentiment is complex, and options data also reflects sustained high demand from investors for hedging against downside risks.
E008.25-12-08|Volatility Game, Year-End Layout: Crypto Options Strategy Under U.S.-Japan Divergence
Sober Options Studio × Derive.XYZ Joint Production Written by Sober Options Studio Analyst Jenna @Jenna_w5 1. Macroeconomic Barometer: Divergence in U.S. and Japanese Monetary Policies and Year-End Liquidity Challenges This week, the global macroeconomic landscape presents complex and contradictory signals. On one hand, the expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates are gradually settling, and discussions about a technical 'balance sheet expansion' are even beginning, providing a hint of easing warmth to the market; on the other hand, the potential actions of the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates are like a stone thrown into water, generating ripples in the global financial markets, especially posing a potential shock to the global liquidity that has long depended on yen carry trade. Coupled with the seasonal tightening of liquidity at the year-end and the approaching ruling of the U.S. Supreme Court on the legality of Trump’s tariffs, the market is showing a noticeable oscillation pattern under the pull of these multiple forces.
E007.25-12-01|Interest Rate Cuts and Tariff Fog: Defensive Strategies for Crypto Options Under Year-End Liquidity Constraints
Sober Options Studio × Derive.XYZ Joint Production Written by Sober Options Studio Analyst Jenna @Jenna_w5 I. Macroeconomic Barometer: Increased Certainty of Interest Rate Cuts, Sino-U.S. Rebound and Year-End Uncertainty Last week, the core theme of the market was the evolution of interest rate cut expectations from 'uncertain' to 'almost certain.' This increased certainty, along with positive signals from Sino-U.S. trade relations, jointly propelled a mild market rebound. However, in the face of liquidity tightening and policy decision risks at the end of December, the market still needs to remain cautious. Increased Certainty of Interest Rate Cuts: From Uncertainty Shock to Market Rebound
E006.25-11-24|Pricing Dilemma in the Data Fog - Why is the Rebound in Rate Cut Probability Hard to Rescue Coin Prices?
Sober Options Studio × Derive.XYZ Joint Production @DeriveXYZ_CN Written by Sober Options Studio Analyst Jenna @Jenna_w5 1. Macro Insight: The Data Vacuum and the Prisoner's Dilemma of Policy Games Last week, the crypto market fell into a strange state of 'divergence'. Although CME data showed a significant rebound in the probability of a rate cut in December, the prices of BTC and ETH did not rebound and instead showed signs of fatigue after a decline. On a macro level, the government shutdown crisis has led to a halt in data releases, casting a thick layer of 'data fog' over the Federal Reserve's decision-making. The options market is re-pricing for this 'unknown' uncertainty: IV (Implied Volatility) on the short end has significantly increased, Skew is deeply negative and solidified, and the market is shifting from merely 'trading rate cuts' to 'trading recession and policy error risks'.
E005.25-11-17|Interest Rate Cut Expectations Hit the Brakes: How Macroeconomic Uncertainty Ignites This Week's Crypto Market Correction?
Sober Options Studio × Derive.XYZ Co-production Written by Sober Options Studio analyst Jenna @Jenna_w5 1. The impact of interest rate cut expectations and the linkage with market pricing The core of last week's theme was the significant retreat in interest rate cut expectations that triggered a market correction. Last Saturday, both the Kansas City Fed and Dallas Fed released cautious signals regarding a rate cut in December at the annual energy conference, shifting the market from previous optimism about a year-end rate cut to a more cautious pricing. CME Group FedWatch shows that the probability of the third rate cut of the year on December 10 plummeted to about 44%, down approximately 20 percentage points from the previous week, with the market now leaning towards a trajectory of 'maintaining 2 rate cuts for the year, totaling 50bp.'
E004.25-11-10|Defensive Strategies Under Rising Systemic Risk: How to Trade Options in This Volatility?
Sober Options Studio × Derive.XYZ Joint Production @DeriveXYZ_CN Written by Sober Options Studio Analyst Jenna @Jenna_w5 1. Macro Black Holes and Platform Tightening: How does the market price 'Data Absence'? Last week, the crypto asset market experienced a typical emotional correction, driven not by a single price event but by the dual overlap of macro systemic uncertainty and micro market deleveraging. As options traders, we must penetrate price fluctuations and understand the deeper logic of market risk pricing. U.S. Government Shutdown: Creating a 'Data Black Hole' and Systemic Uncertainty
E003.25-11-03|How to position for the stablecoin wave using options?——In-depth analysis of BTC and ETH volatility structure
Sober Options Studio × Derive.XYZ Joint Production Written by Sober Options Studio Analyst Jenna 1. The impact of stablecoin trading hitting new highs on the crypto market This week, the stablecoin market has reached a historic breakthrough: its monthly trading volume (primarily referring to real-world scenario transactions for goods, services, and transfers) has set a new record, surpassing $10 billion, significantly higher than February's $6 billion. This milestone event marks a solid step towards transforming crypto assets from mere speculative tools into global payment and business solutions, and has profound implications for the long-term value narrative of underlying assets like BTC and ETH.