The "Sober Chat Options" planet has been operating for 125 days. What have I done?

First of all, I would like to thank these more than 130 friends for their support so that this knowledge planet can continue to operate.

1. What was my original intention that led me to open Knowledge Planet?

The original intention of starting Planet was that I found that I had written free articles before, but there was no response or interaction in my tweets or in my circle of friends. At the same time, there are some opportunities or strategies that do not have such large capital capacity and dare not publicly call for orders on Twitter. So I opened a planet and told everyone about it quietly. This TLT directly allowed everyone to trade the risk reversal strategy (see the picture below, bullish, the bottom area is obvious)

I made 10 times the profit in about one month.

At that time, I really felt that my investment knowledge was monetized, and products with high certainty like U.S. bonds had a guaranteed bottom line. With this kind of profit-loss ratio opportunity, "it is really fun to lead everyone to make money."

The initial planet price was 299, and the first batch of friends who came in all earned at least 30 years of planet fees.

Later, I felt that the platform of Planet was quite interesting. There were many things that were difficult to say on a public platform, or if you said that no one would respond to you, it was really good. What I said was rich in knowledge, and it was a platform that was even better than Binance Square or Twitter. Rich platform.

In these 125 days, Planet has many more valuable things than Twitter and WeChat group chats, with a total of 203 articles.

Covers: Mosaic, macro, US stocks + US bonds, big A, in-depth articles.

The price has also increased from 299 at the beginning to 699 now.

2. What have I done in these four months?

As shown in the picture above, these 203 articles cover 3 major markets. Tiezi who posted the article knows that the main content I share on Twitter is encryption. In fact, my big A and US stocks are not idle at all. You can read my article The distribution is known.

Initially, it was more about sharing crypto opportunities to cater to fellow stars on the planet, but in fact, considering that I am a big A person who transferred from traditional finance and U.S. stocks, I am actually better at many targets. Since everyone comes to the capital market, they all make money, and big Most players also have decentralized configurations, so good wealth passwords should be shared with players who recognize them, so I will try my best to share as much as I can.

Several specific typical operating opportunities

①When I started doing Planet in October, it happened to be the Yazhan Options Trading Competition.

Conducted 3 live broadcasts (and recordings at the same time) for novice options players, telling them how to become proficient in basic options operations in a short period of time; at the same time, the team won the second place in the deribit option competition team.

Everyone probably got 300-500 US dollars.

② From October to December, we took everyone to seize the opportunity of 20-year U.S. bonds.

I repeatedly remind everyone to get on the spot in the range of 83-87 US dollars, and use the risk reversal strategy to earn call-side profits with small profits and big profits. In this wave, even if it is now US$93, the spot income is 12% (and there are dividends every month); the option income is 8-10 times.

③ Perform long gamma operations on Bingtangcheng and Auntai.

I have been prompted several times about long rock sugar orange gamma’s bull market spread opportunities, and the profit-loss ratio is always 10 to 1;

In addition, before the Spring Festival, I would like to remind everyone to study the fundamentals of Auntai. The effect of this round of supplementary increase will be very strong, and three strategies are suggested.

Put spread, risk reversal, and diagnal spread are all bullish strategies.

④ Prompts some risks

Pitfall avoidance guide, respectively prompting DMA sharing and quantifying private equity fund risks

⑤ Long A-share CSI 300 call on February 2

It was more than 2,600 points at that time. When the A-share market was at its most desperate, it prompted us to start a long call.

3. What will I do next?

I will talk to you in depth about my old profession. The asset allocation series is an important series this year. In investment, many people are entangled in tactical aspects, such as macro analysis, industry research, individual stock selection, and specific strategies. Factor dismantling. It requires not only macro-level strategic timing, but also micro-level breakdown of each manager's specific strategies as if they are crystal clear, and doing a bunch of things with a low winning rate.

However, it is very lazy strategically, and has not even established an asset allocation framework with a high winning rate.

Therefore, we hope to use more than 5-10 articles to help everyone clearly build an asset allocation framework.

At least the strategy should be clear first so that no one makes big mistakes. At present, the update is basically completed, and we will continue to check for leaks and fill in the gaps in the future. We will also slowly lead everyone to continue to build their own framework in actual combat.

4. Option practice

I will further carry out various online and offline teachings so that everyone can better understand option strategies in a practical way.

Options private training class is a practical product line developed by me.

5. Why do prices continue to rise?

Why continue to increase prices?

If a good investment strategy has limited capacity, the manager must give priority to the best investors. The best investors are the old friends who gave you help when you were broke in the early days of your business.

When you join the planet, we will find ways to get you value that far exceeds the planet fee. Our energy is limited and we don’t want too many people to join. We only want to provide value to those who recognize us the most.

The old guys who joined Planet in the early days of its establishment, when there was no content, are the ones who support us the most and trust us. We must give them more preferential treatment.

The current fee is 699 yuan per year. How can we get more than 100,000 yuan or even more than one million in value? After thinking about it, we decided to remove the above content and add the following rights to Planet viewers:

Write at the end:

Friends who are waiting for planet discounts, don’t wait. Our principle is that we cannot let new members have lower prices than any old members. (If I have the marketing energy, I might as well write research reports. I’m not good at operations and fan building)

It is now 699 yuan, and it was 299 yuan at the earliest; there is a high probability that the price will still increase in the future, and this increase is much higher than that of other major types of assets.

It is recommended that players with relatively large investable assets join before joining, as they hope to provide value that far exceeds the planet fee.

Our planet is an investment, not a consumption.

#BTC

August 19 Crypto Options Market Research Report

The US stock market rebounded by nearly 10%, and the overall crypto market was weak. There is a high probability that there will be large fluctuations before the end of the month

Coincall (the first U-based alt options exchange, trading popular alt options such as Sol, Ton, and Ordi), a third-party custodial options platform with simple KYC (select HK)

I. Core Views
1- The market was flat and shrunk over the weekend, and the implied volatility of the options market was basically flat. Judging from the current volatility cones of BTC and ETH, it is still at the 25-50 percentile level;

2- Coincall's real account has two delta-neutral strategies, one is the Gamma scalping strategy at the end of the month, and the other is a neutral seller strategy, which is constructed using ratio spread. This week, the delta value will continue to be adjusted to neutral;

3- Subjectively judge that the short-term downside risk of crypto is still greater; this can also be clearly seen from the pricing of implied volatility in the options market. This Friday, the put of btc delta15 has 3 more vols than the call;

4- In the near future, you can pay attention to the long call opportunities of high-quality altcoins if a big drop occurs. For example: Ordi, BNB, etc.

5- Sol and ton views remain unchanged

Summary: In the past two weeks, we should still be wary of black swan risks, and players with heavy +delta positions should pay attention to thick tail protection. Because it is now in a medium-low IV environment, sellers with Theta as the main body should be wary of Gamma risks.

2. Block transactions

The largest transaction of BTC is 485
buy BTC-30AUG24-62000-C
The largest transaction of sol is 1050
buy SOL_USDC-20AUG24-145-C

3. Macro market
U.S. stocks:
Last week, U.S. stocks rebounded continuously and the Nasdaq 100 index reached a position close to 2w points. It has rebounded nearly 10% since Black Monday on August 5. The overall market is still very strong. However, my judgment that the overall valuation is in a medium-to-high position has not changed. Players who do not want to miss out should continue to use options to reduce spot costs at this stage, because the odds of holding spot are indeed insufficient. The VIX panic index dropped from the previous high of 65 to 14.8. This wave of VIX market private training class 2.0 has been seized by players. The overall situation is still in the black swan outbreak area, and we will still have similar opportunities. Long-term US bonds have further clarified the small-scale trading range, and familiar players continue to use options to reduce costs.
Throughout Q3 and Q4, I subjectively judge that there are still many asymmetric opportunities in the US stock market, especially for players familiar with derivatives.

August 8 Crypto Options Market Research Report

It is difficult to say that the US stock market has adjusted in the short term. Cryptocurrencies are bearish recently. How to arrange options positions?

This Sunday is the only free trial class for private lessons. You can join the group by adding the assistant’s WeChat: April1336.
Coincall (No. 1 U-based alt options exchange, trading popular alt options such as Sol, Ton, and Ordi)

I. Core Views

1- ETH near-term panic sentiment is particularly severe, and the implied volatility has been sideways in the past two days; the overall implied volatility has reached above the 75th percentile, and the current RV is relatively large. Subjectively, I do not think that shorting near-term volatility has a good profit and loss ratio

2- The current put option purchase premium will continue until the end of September. From the perspective of hedging, the general market view is risk fear, and increase put option purchases to hedge spot and contract long delta positions;

3- BTC ETFs are still mainly net outflows recently, and Ethereum ETFs have recently turned to net inflows, with a total outflow of ETHE of 2.2 billion

4- Among the alt option targets, Sol has a good opportunity to short short-term volatility and use IV premium to grind down spot costs recently, which is suitable for mid- and high-level players. At the same time, this strategy will be very stable if it supplements appropriate put option purchase positions to hedge the overall portfolio

5- Ordi rebounded moderately. The overall BTC ecosystem has not seen any signs of capital speculation recently. Spot positions continue to roll cc strategies to reduce costs.

Summary: Subjective judgment shows that the mid-line is mainly oscillating, and there is no sign of short-term strength. The near-end RV is high. Near-end short volatility players should pay attention to Gamma risk

2. Option bulk transactions

BTC bulk players have bought wide straddle positions in the doomsday round, betting on the Gamma market, and short call spread positions betting on no big rise

buy BTC-9AUG24-56000-P + buy BTC-9AUG24-58000-C

sell BTC-23AUG24-67000-C + buy BTC-23AUG24-72000-C

sol has a large number of covered positions and long put option positions

sell SOL_USDC-16AUG24-180-C

buy SOL_USDC-30AUG24-110-P

III. Macro Market

US stocks:
Yesterday, the overall US stock market rose first and then fell, and VIX also showed a gradual decline. At present, it is difficult to say that the US stock market has adjusted in place, and there is a high probability of fluctuations and downward movement. Therefore, it is subjectively judged that it is difficult for the short-term crypto market to have a big market. It is necessary to balance positions and patiently reduce spot costs.

A shares:
Yesterday I had dinner with friends from financial institutions. At present, the confidence in the financial industry is at a low point. Subjectively, it is worse than in 2018.

August 7 Crypto Options Market Research Report

It has not stabilized in the short term. How to hedge the risk in the recent high actual volatility position?

Coincall (the first U-based alt options exchange, trading popular alt options such as Sol, Ton, Ordi), a third-party custodial options platform with simple KYC (select HK), invitation link: https://coincall.com/r/19298649

I. Core Views

1- BTC and ETH are still at high levels, ETH has exceeded the 75th percentile, and the long vega strategy was recommended last week. It is currently in the floating profit stage and can be closed at an appropriate time;

2- It is still not possible to say that it has stabilized and rebounded in the short term. Today, a video will be released to explain several option hedging strategies in detail. How to use them?

3- Many option veterans have long held short vega positions to make money, and the current market environment is not suitable for subjective judgment. The term structure of BTC and ETH is near high and far low. It is highly likely that IV will not return so quickly based on event considerations, especially the US election in November. If there are players who have not laid out long vega positions before, they can lay out in November.
4- The implied volatility of the altcoin option sol has risen very quickly, and controlling MM still has a good near-end way to brush theta back and forth;
5- The ordi covered call position will be transferred to the tg group this week

Summary: Both the near-end RV and IV are at high levels, and it is necessary to keep enough MM to control the Gamma risk. The far-end can be combined with the US election long vega

II. Option block trading
BTC has a large position of more than 1,400 pieces, and a bear market spread strategy (betting on a continued sharp drop)
sell BTC-30AUG24-44000-P + buy BTC-30AUG24-48000-P

ETH and sol did not observe abnormal blocks

III. Macro market

US stocks:
Yesterday, the US stock market rose and fell. The weekend observation of qqq 18,000 points was far away, and the key position had great resistance. The panic index VIX fell back to 27.7, and the short vix position made a floating profit and continued to hold. At present, the bears in the US stock market still dominate and have not stabilized.

A shares:
Yesterday, the North Water Fund flowed out 6.2 billion, indicating that the market is still weak in confidence. The internal confidence problem was exposed during the day. It can be seen that GJD still supported the market at the end of the trading day. There is no other way but to wait patiently. The iron must be hard to forge.

August 5 Crypto Options Market Research Report

US stocks are in panic, cryptocurrencies are in a serious short-term panic, how can options hedge risks?

The limited-time scholarship for private classes has ended, and the opening ceremony will be held this weekend.
Coincall (No. 1 U-based alt options exchange, trading popular alt options such as Sol, Ton, and Ordi)

I. Core Views

1- Since the U.S. stock market hyped up the economic recession last week, cryptocurrencies have been falling over the weekend. If the spot position is too heavy, the panic sentiment is serious in the short term, and it is not cost-effective to buy short-term put options. You can choose a suitable strike price contract in September;

2- ETH's trend has continued to weaken relative to BTC and sol in recent days. My personal long eth +delta position has been closed at the weekend;

3- On the fundamental research of L1 sol vs eth, a YouTube video was uploaded over the weekend, extracting data from the Defi research report to evaluate the two L1 public chains. Portal: https://youtu.be/OA0xoJLte1k?si=fz3Wwf18iH5AwcuI…

4- I wrote a short essay in Weekend Planet, "The U.S. Treasury Bull Market Has Begun (August 3 - U.S. Treasury Article 11)", which contains overall thoughts on several macro markets. You can read the full article. This week, I am relatively pessimistic about the crypto market. I have closed all my sell put positions this week to prevent Gamma risk;
5- The copycat underlying options continue to roll sol's doomsday options, and ordi cycle options continue to use covered call strategies.

Summary: The overall market is weak this week. Players with heavy spot positions can buy forward put options to hedge their positions.

2. Bulk option trading

BTC bulk purchases totaling about 500 put option positions this Friday
buy BTC-9AUG24-61000-P
buy BTC-9AUG24-59000-P

ETH bulk purchases of month-end call options and this week's put options, 6,500 and 5,000 positions respectively

buy ETH-9AUG24-2800-P

3. Macro market

US stocks:
Last week, the focus was on the accelerated realization of the US dollar in the direction of interest rate cuts. Because the Fed's actions in the past cycle were "slow", the market had already fully priced in the US dollar's interest rate cut expectations. Now that the Fed has finally accelerated its dovish stance due to the reality of falling US inflation and the economy beginning to be under pressure, the market will price it based on the logic of "the shoe has landed".

A-shares:
Last week, the inflow and outflow of Northbound funds are worth reviewing:
① On Wednesday, Northbound funds inflowed nearly 20 billion, and the big sun bottomed out and attacked;
② On Thursday, Northbound funds outflowed more than 5 billion, and the market fluctuated slightly and fell;

August 1 Crypto Options Market Research Report

The Fed is dovish as expected, US stocks and bonds are rising, but cryptocurrencies are falling. How to break it?

Coincall (No. 1 U-based alt options exchange, trading popular alt options such as Sol, Ton, and Ordi)

I. Core Views
1- Yesterday's video recommended two strategies, one is the doomsday round long gamma, and the other is the long medium-term vega strategy. At present, long gamma has indeed achieved relatively good results and can be closed with profit;
2- Cryptocurrency still needs to break away from the US stock market and move out of the downward trend in the short term, and BTC's ETF also has a slight net outflow;
3- The implied volatility of BTC and ETH is still hovering at a low level. Players who want to go long on medium- and long-term vega can slowly build positions; or wait for the implied volatility to continue to drop to the 3-digit;
4- The overall alt option underlying is falling with BTC. Players of short vol can appropriately reduce the short vol position and focus on whether the spot price meets the delta scalping expectations, and buy high and sell low;
5- In addition, alt options can continue to focus on Kas. In the early days, we made good profits from long calls.

Summary: ETH/BTC exchange rate is sideways, and we need to continue to pay attention to the net outflow of Grayscale ETHE. At present, ETH ETF has begun to show net inflow on the 30th. Subjectively, we are still optimistic about this round of Ethereum spot rebound, and we have also used options to arrange +delta and +vega positions, which are currently in floating losses.

2. Option block trading

The largest block of BTC yesterday was more than 1,200 positions short call spread
buy BTC-27DEC24-100000-C + sell BTC-27DEC24-65000-C

ETH's largest block yesterday was a 4-leg position, and an iron eagle strategy was implemented, continuing short vol
buy ETH-25OCT24-2800-P + sell ETH-25OCT24-3500-C + sell ETH-25OCT24-3500-P + buy ETH-25OCT24-4500-C

For large-scale transactions of sol, please visit the Star Friends TG group

3. Macro market

US stocks:
Yesterday's US stock interest rate meeting released a signal of an upcoming interest rate cut, QQQ\SPY rose across the board, 20-year long-term US bonds also rose, and VIX fell to 16.3. We need to continue to pay attention to the good news of the US stock interest rate cut. In my personal investment portfolio, I still have a larger long-term US bond position, and I also have a small allocation in short VIX ETFs. I have not reduced my previous heavy positions in technology stocks.

A-shares:
From yesterday's trend, regardless of the size of the index, it is generally rising, and at least it is a medium-sized positive line with volume.

July 31 Crypto Options Market Research Report

August 1st Federal Reserve Interest Rate Meeting, Choose the Right Time to Do More Volatility?

Coincall (No. 1 U-based alt options exchange, trading popular alt options such as Sol, Ton, and Ordi)

I. Core Views
1- Through the volatility cone, it can be seen that the short-term IV of BTC and ETH has reached below the 25th percentile. You can adopt the long gamma strategy to bet on the increase in the RV of the interest rate meeting, or long September vega is currently around the 25th percentile. If you want to further reduce the cost, add some scalping strategies. The current implied volatility is relatively suitable for opening such strategies.
2- From the term structure, it can be seen that the medium- and long-term long call option structure position is still very healthy;
3- If you still want to wait to add a long volatility position, you can observe whether the IV will further drop after the interest rate meeting; if this is the scenario, it will be a better timing point for betting on volatility.
4- The implied volatility of the copycat option is in a downward trend, and the 70 Vol of the last day option of Sol is also at a low level. Short Vol players should pay attention to position control; the implied volatility of the ordi cycle option bid 1 has also dropped to 90%

Summary: You can choose to bet on volatility long positions before and after the interest rate meeting; subjective judgment is optimistic about the market in the second half of the year; conservative players can keep more US dollar positions in terms of positions. If there is a sharp drop, add spot positions or sell put-end implied volatility

II. Option block transactions
The two largest transactions of BTC yesterday were short call spread and near-end sell covered call positions
buy BTC-27DEC24-100000-C + sell BTC-27DEC24-65000-C
sell BTC-2AUG24-70000-C

ETH The three largest transactions yesterday were as follows: long August volatility and sell short-term covered call positions
buy ETH-3AUG24-3000-P
buy ETH-3AUG24-3400-C
sell ETH-2AUG24-3350-C

Sol See Star Friends TG Group

III. Macro Market

US Stocks:
The US stock market rose slightly yesterday, and long-term US bonds were sideways waiting for the interest rate meeting. What needs to be noted yesterday is that VIX rose by 6%. If there are derivatives players who want to increase short VIX in the near future, they can choose to increase their positions. Although the overall interest rate cut cycle is high, the economic resilience is still very strong.

A shares:
Because of the objective reality of the economy and the thunder and rain in the macro narrative, market participants have actively or passively entered the spiral of the "prisoner's game".
You still need to wait patiently and do less operations.

July 30 Crypto Options Market Research Report

Spot prices fell, option implied volatility continued to fall, VRP converged, should we go long or short volatility in the future?

Coincall (No. 1 U-based alt options exchange, trading popular alt options such as Sol, Ton, Ordi), a third-party custodial options platform with simple KYC (select HK), invitation link: https://coincall.com/r/19298649

I. Core Views
1- With both spot and implied volatility falling, VRP converges, short vol positions can be gradually reduced, especially do not oversell vol;
2- Last night, I discussed with a crypto player how to go long on ETH. At present, my personal position uses long mid-term ATM call and short short-term call, and the overall retention of +delta, so that Theta is balanced, and the loss of Theta on the decline can earn some Vega if Vega rises
3- If the overall spot price falls, non-volatility trading players can sell some BTC puts, and hoard spot positions of 65,000 will have 50% APR at the end of August
4- The overall IV of alt options on Coincall is also in a downward channel, and option players can sell some Sol and Ordi Put, store spot position

Summary: The crypto market's PUT side implied volatility rose on Friday, and the bulk did not over-purchase put options to protect positions in the medium and long term; pay attention to option MM margin control in the mid-term bull market, and the overall +delta remains unchanged; long vega is not in a hurry to increase positions. Long ETH's Detla is subjectively judged to be worth planning.

2. Option block trading
The two largest transactions of BTC yesterday were as follows: 100,000 call option positions at the end of the year and anti-calendar strategy (optimistic about the Gamma market at the end of August):
buy BTC-27DEC24-100000-C
sell BTC-25OCT24-75000-C + buy BTC-30AUG24-75000-C

ETH's two largest transactions yesterday were buying straddle strategy at the end of September and buying OTM call option strategy in September:
buy ETH-27SEP24-3200-C + buy ETH-27SEP24-3200-P
buy ETH-27SEP24-3900-C

Sol See Star Friends TG Group

III. Macro Market

US Stocks:

The US stock market closed slightly higher yesterday, with the main narrative of technology stocks still strong. Tesla rose more than 5% in a single day, and small tickets were relatively weak; the VIX index fell slightly during the session.

For US bonds, focus on the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on Wednesday, and pay attention to Powell's answers to reporters' questions. For US bonds, we need to pay attention to whether there are new breakthroughs. From my personal model, the next important point for 10-year US bonds is 4.Around 10%.

July 29 Crypto Options Market Research Report

Trump's BTC conference was exciting. After the event was launched, the implied volatility fell from the 85th percentile to below the 50th percentile; event-driven short volatility players won a big victory

Coincall (the first U-based alt options exchange, trading popular alt options such as Sol, Ton, Ordi), a third-party custodial options platform with simple KYC (select HK), invitation link: https://coincall.com/r/19298649

I. Core Views
1- Trump promised at the Bitcoin conference to include Bitcoin in the national reserve in the future. Before the event was launched, the implied volatility of BTC doomsday options soared to more than 100;
2- The spot level maintains the previous view and continues to +delta, but the short-term Trump's call effect is indeed average. Option players should pay attention to the sell call position volume;
3- Focus this week: Fed's July interest rate decision, US non-farm payrolls + my country's PMI. The former corresponds to whether the expectation of US dollar interest rate cuts is accelerating, and the latter corresponds to whether the domestic economy is under pressure to force the policy limit;
4- The copycat option targets Sol and Ordi also showed a drop in volatility of about 20%

Summary: Event-driven weekends and tg group partners communicate about short volatility opportunities, master the asymmetric profit and loss ratio; major events still exist this week, and subsequent daily reports will prompt volatility trading opportunities.

2. Option block trading

BTC and ETH have limited weekend block trading

SOL has a large number of option transactions expiring this Friday (TG group has been prompted)

3. Macro market

US stocks:
Last Friday, SPY and QQQ rose, and the VIX index fell. The overall rebound was smooth and large and small tickets rose at the same time. The overall market liquidity is sufficient. Last Friday and this week, I will continue to choose opportunities to deploy VIX derivatives; DPST option positions expire, and I will continue to roll this week

A shares:
This week, the zzj mid-year economic work conference determined the intensity of short-term economic stimulus. In the case of the market's "immunity" to the determination of institutional reform, whether the stimulus policy will loosen up in the old economy and whether the further supervision of fiscal reinforcement will be implemented is critical. My personal position of index option volatility longs continues to wait patiently and unmoved.

Sober talks about options [Private Tutoring Class 2.0]

Performance is the core
Only passion can lead to deep cultivation

2.0 is about to start

Private Tutoring Class 2.0 Course Schedule

If you have courage, you may make a lot of money

If you have a system, you can: go steady and go far

July 16 Crypto Options Market Research Report

Market sentiment rekindled, BTC implied volatility broke through the median value, and the second half of the benefit effect of copycat options has just begun

I. Core Views
1- Previously, when BTC was around 5.4w, I wrote a short essay on Twitter to encourage everyone to buy spot. In the medium term, the winning rate is high and the odds are moderate. It is as expected at present;
2- Previously, I shared in the Planet VX group that I bought 6.1-6.3W calls in August, which have doubled. The main basis for judgment is spot price and iv, both of which are suitable;
3- ETH's s1 file has not yet been implemented. From the perspective of the implied volatility of the options market, there are not many time point expectations. The implied volatility on the call option side is smooth; ETH implied volatility has risen to the 75th percentile. Players familiar with short volatility can arrange on the call side;
4- Be careful of the overall sentiment. Sell the news after the ETH ETF is passed, so it is recommended to short vol as much as possible on the call side
5- The implied volatility of the copycat options fell slightly, Ordi spot rose by 14% again, and the implied volatility fell by 20%. For copycat options, I will still focus on familiar targets Ordi, Ton, and Sol.

Summary: There is no worry about the spot, and it is not suitable to use options to chase highs in the short term; Call-side pocketing or shorting Vol are both good choices.

2. Options block trading

BTC block trading has more than 400 naked buy positions for next year, and there are also 385 positions for calendar spread strategy
buy BTC-28MAR25-100000-C
sell BTC-26JUL24-68000-C + buy BTC-2AUG24-68000-C

ETH block trading has 2 recent bets on bullish strategy, short put spread is more seller-oriented
buy ETH-26JUL24-3700-C
buy ETH-26JUL24-2900-P + sell ETH-26JUL24-3300-P

SOL has more CC strategy positions

3. Macro market

US stocks:
Yesterday, US stocks opened and companies with high correlation with Trump began to have a strong market, such as real estate, manufacturing, finance, etc. Tesla, as a Trump concept high-tech company, rose and fell. At present, Tesla's medium- and long-term option strategy is still suitable for the layout stage. You can ask questions on the planet.
The 20-year US Treasury bond fell slightly. Players who do not have TMF can make some option strategies around the strike price of 45-48 US dollars.

A shares:
Yesterday, GJD stabilized the A-share market, but it can still be seen from the H-share and small-ticket index that market funds are still very cold. No one is willing to price expectations in advance in the prisoner's dilemma.

July 12 Crypto Options Market Research Report

CPI is better than expected, US stocks continue to hit ATH, why did BTC rise and fall?

I. Core Views

1- As expected in yesterday's daily report, CPI data is better than expected, and the expectation of interest rate cuts is becoming clearer and clearer. At present, the interest rate cut in September is expected, and MSTR closed up 4%.

2- From the macro perspective of US politics, Trump is leading the election. Political events are good for cryptocurrencies and cannot be ignored. Pay attention to the Bitcoin Conference and new crypto money pouring in.

3- ETH's ETF event is approaching the opening, and ATM and 25D call continue to decline. It is likely to follow the volatility trend shared in this week's video. Let's see if the opening exceeds expectations.

4- Ordi covered call strategy:
The cottage option Sol has a small decline of about 5 vols. Ordi's implicit volatility has always been the only one. At present, the focus is on the covered call strategy of 30D put, which will be put into the weekly real market later. (As shown below)

Summary: As long as there is no black swan in the US stock market during the interest rate cut cycle, it is only a matter of time before the inflow of cryptocurrencies flows in. Be patient and wait, and don't look at the trend of Bitcoin in the next one or two days.

2. Options bulk

Yesterday, the largest bulk of BTC was long call spread (relatively heavy odds)

sell BTC-27DEC24-120000-C + buy BTC-27DEC24-85000-C

ETH's largest position yesterday was 3,000, short call spread (belongs to the strategy of selling ETF news)

sell ETH-19JUL24-3450-C + buy ETH-19JUL24-3800-C

SOL has no obvious guiding significance

3. Macro market

US stocks:
Previous research reports asked everyone to pay attention to small-cap stocks. Yesterday, Russell 2000 broke through the long-term downward trend of two years; crypto-related stocks are very strong. It can be observed that funds are gradually eliminating the concentration risk. The trading method of US stock asset management companies is the idea of ​​big ships. They will not enter and exit quickly. The overall positive effect on encryption needs time to be released. Let's wait and see.

In addition, the planet reminds me to sell Tesla not because I am not optimistic, but because it is overheated in the short term. In the long term, it is still a 10-fold target. TLT\TMF\DPST, which entered at the right time, benefited from a wave of rises in the expectation of interest rate cuts. Subjective judgment of US bonds is just the appetizer at the beginning, hold it.

A shares:

Yesterday after the market, the ZC suspended the transfer and financing and increased the margin rate of securities lending to 100%/120%, directly targeting quantitative strategies. Because there was no beta market, the DMA was restricted at the beginning of the year, and then the nine national regulations were introduced. Yesterday, the general rise was led by the small and medium-sized enterprises represented by the CSI 2000.

July 11 Crypto Options Market Research Report

CPI data will be released tonight, US employment data deteriorates, and the implied volatility of the options market is ahead. What should we do?

1. Core Views
1- The implied volatility of ETH 25D call continues to decline. The previous short volatility position using ratio spread on the call side has been closed. Let's see if the opening exceeds expectations. If it exceeds expectations, we can repeat the previous actions.
2- Tonight's CPI data is subjectively optimistic from a macro perspective. The interest rate cut is getting closer and closer. The BTC short-term market is still afraid of a big drop, and puts are relatively upward before the end of the month.
3- The concept of autonomous driving is hot, and you can continue to pay attention to the encrypted AI target
4- The cottage option sol continues to be optimistic. Yesterday, the planet also shared bulk data, and continued to long the end of the month +delta

Summary: BTC maintains the previous view with a very high winning rate and moderate odds. Very few high-quality altcoins continue to short vega long delta (question from the planet if you don’t understand)

2. Block trades

BTC block trades buy 310 put options at the end of the month for protection, and another block player short call spread, overall bearish:
buy BTC-26JUL24-54000-P
sell BTC-19JUL24-63000-C + buy BTC-19JUL24-68000-C

ETH no update

Sol block continues to do similar long positions, the planet was updated yesterday, and the RR strategy was added today

3. Macro market

US stocks:
Apple’s P/S valuation level has reached a record high. I subjectively judge that funds continue to be optimistic and further open up the upside space. The overall benefit is to open the ceiling of the 7 sisters of US technology stocks. Apple’s upward surge will also drive the valuation of giants such as Tesla. Continue to pay attention to and deepen the targets we are familiar with.

A-shares:
Typical macro commodities such as rebar hit a new low yesterday. We can continue to pay attention to the trend of some commodities in the future.
A screenshot of the monthly report of Internet celebrity Li Bei was shared on Twitter yesterday. As a long-term investor at the end of last year, the text of the current research report is full of speechlessness. Emotions have reached the "freezing point"

July 10 Crypto Options Market Research Report
ETF event is asking for a release, the implied volatility on the bullish option side is the first to fall; can the landing force exceed expectations?

I. Core Views
1- Last week, the private class specifically used the ETH ETF event as an example to talk about event-driven implied volatility prediction. It is about to open. Let's see if it is accurate?
2- If you are an option veteran, you will find that IV and RV have changed significantly in the past two weeks. The mid-to-long-term VRP is increasing, and there is a good short vega expectation
3- At the spot level, BTC's ETF has been in a buying state, basically smashing during the Asian session, and the US stock market opens ETF to buy the bottom; although it is in a bear market from a technical perspective, I pay more attention to the fundamental options and still maintain +delta
4- In terms of copycat options, several long-term trading targets ordi iv are at the highest level. Compared with the current overall price, weekly options have the highest cost efficiency; from a fundamental perspective, sol and ton have continued to work hard recently, and continue to be optimistic.
Summary: For bullish view, short vega can be moderately traded; alt options mainly trade the strike price within the month. (Question from the planet if you don’t understand)
2. Block trade
BTC has a large put-end short vega position of 400 coins at the end of the year; more than 200 long call spread positions
sell BTC-27DEC24-60000-P
buy BTC-30AUG24-66000-C + sell BTC-30AUG24-69000-C
ETH block trade has an interesting strategy of 2500 positions, double selling ETFs through period calls, betting sell news
sell ETH-12JUL24-3050-C + sell ETH-19JUL24-3050-C
sol rare block trade (prompt in the planet)

3. Macro market
US stocks:
Yesterday, Powell rarely gave a neutral answer at the hearing. My subjective judgment is to prepare the market for interest rate cuts. Players who are still chasing technology stocks in the market should be careful. I still want to return to the familiar long-term US bonds. (I wrote 5-6 in-depth articles in the planet last year, and will update them further recently. tmf \tlt) I also sold Tesla. Short-term sentiment is overheated, and I avoid risks.
A shares:
The mid-month meeting determined the "determination" of long-term reforms, and the end-of-month meeting determined the "intensity" of short-term stimulus.
The volatility of options is at an extremely low level in many years, and it is unreasonable to be too calm on the eve of major events. A ship that has lost its anchor seems to be stable on the water, but in fact it will capsize at the slightest wind and waves. Although history will not repeat itself completely, it always rhymes with the same footing. I will still bet on 300 broad-based calls.

July 9 Crypto Options Market Research Report

Fidelity and other institutions have updated their S1 documents. It is expected that ETF will be approved this week, but the options market has put a lot of buying. Will it rise or fall?

I. Core Views
1- Ethereum's ETF expectations are likely to be clear. Event volatility forecasts will be released this week. Private class students can see if my bold prediction of implied volatility is accurate.

2- VanEck previously submitted the trust of sol, and the market began to hype sol's ETF. Overall, from the perspective of ecology and innovation, this round of sol and ton will be much better than eth. Now eth's fundamentals are only restaking and L2. L2 is not visible to the naked eye and the story can't be told. Restaking and other things have been pua for everyone for a long time. It's not that I'm pessimistic about ether, but that the future is more about asset allocation. How much alpha is compared with BTC? Doubtful.

3- This Friday, the option implied volatility put is relatively more upward, and more funds in the option market position are still inclined to buy insurance thinking. I will neither buy nor sell myself.

Summary: ETF event-driven volatility forecast, wait for the opening. I will consider doing a Sol or Ordi covered call strategy later, and it is in preparation.

2. Options block trading

BTC block bets on leaps in March next year, and there are also 400 positions for the long call spread at the end of the year

Buy BTC-28MAR25-65000-C

Buy BTC-27DEC24-65000-C + sell BTC-27DEC24-90000-C

No updates on ETH and SOL

3. Macro market

US stocks will focus more on US debt option strategies in the future. Recently, some high-quality option strategy ETFs have been discovered, such as JEPQ\JEPI\VXX\Svol, etc., and they are being deployed when the time is right

Currently, 2-, 5-, and 10-year US Treasury bonds are at key points

A-shares are also driven by major events. Waiting for the opening, currently betting on volatility bulls

The market is spreading a short essay about being attacked from all sides. Overall, whether financial practitioners, security guards, or taxi drivers have lost confidence. At this time, blindly FUD is meaningless because this is already a consensus.

If we look for information, we should try to find some different viewpoints and thinking logic. Such viewpoints may not be correct, but the probability of success in investment through consensus is extremely small.

July 8 Crypto Options Market Research Report

Spot rebounded and continued to fall. Short-term put option buying volume was large. What will happen next?

I. Core Views

1- Spot rebounded weakly. Short-term (this Friday) to the end of the month, put option buying volume was large, and option implied volatility was high;

2- ETF buying volume advanced to 3 billion US dollars last Friday, a recent high. From the analysis of the spot market and ETF trading logic, it is not ruled out that ETFs absorb chips and sell chips at the crypto spot level. Long-term players can ignore it.

3- Top 10 targets Sol and Ton are anti-falling. Observing their strength can be used as a short-term judgment perspective.

Summary: ETF spot buying is a positive signal. Long-term players can pay less attention to short-term long and short noise. Those who want to buy option insurance can make partial configurations. The implied volatility of disconnected puts is rising. The U-based put of BTC sold on Coincall at the end of the month has an APR of more than 30% for 5W, a recent high.

2. Options bulk trading

BTC bulk took advantage of the spot price correction to buy more than 500 long-term leaps, and some collar positions for short-term speculation
buy BTC-28MAR25-65000-C
buy BTC-19JUL24-50000-P + sell BTC-19JUL24-60000-C

ETH bulk made a 3-leg strategy with 2,000 positions. Short-term bearish, bullish ETF event on the 19th (using short-term premium to make up for long call spread)
sell ETH-12JUL24-3200-C + buy ETH-19JUL24-3200-C + sell ETH-19JUL24-3400-C

sol Bulk Planet prompts, a large number of long gamma positions

3. Macro market

A shares
Friday's theme is stronger than blue chips. At present, we have seen GJD's willingness to cover the bottom, so everyone is really not afraid of falling at 300 and 50.

It is recommended that volatility bulls continue to be patient. To be honest, many people say that this is an emotional despair zone and an opportunity. I personally think that it is a self-exile zone that is lower than despair. At this time, the market has almost no positive pricing, which can be called "no man's land".

At this time, most people have turned a blind eye and do not believe it. We should pay more attention, be restrained, be rational, and patiently prepare and lay out in the direction of positive pricing.

For the bulls at 300 and 50, the stage decision point is coming soon, so be restrained and patient at this moment.

July 3 Crypto Options Market Research Report

Spot continues to fall, only Ton is strong enough, has it reached the bottom?

Coincall (No. 1 U-based copycat options)

I. Core Views
1- In the future, I will only talk briefly about the targets I am optimistic about, whether it is private classes, planet groups or free tweets. Everyone has to pay for their own cognition. Others can give you an opinion, but they cannot give you cognition.
2- Recently, I have read negative comments from people on several targets in the A-share, US stock and crypto markets that I have been tracking for a long time. (Especially some bloggers who have good cognition but different opinions from me) It is very inspiring and has strengthened my confidence in holding spot.
3- In the crypto market, eth still maintains the view of sell news in yesterday's video. At present, the ratio spread on the call side is well realized. Some 3000, 3100 sell puts have given back some profits. The overall theta is relatively thick and U is relatively sufficient, so continue to sleep steadily.
4- In the future, the copycat targets will continue to do subtraction, and only trade positions that are willing to hold spot. If it is an ant warehouse that uses options for speculation, it will also be prompted in the tweet.

2. Option block trading

BTC has a large-scale purchase of 1,200 put option positions next Friday (it is very likely to protect the spot or bet on the short-term waterfall, short-term players can refer to it)
buy BTC-12JUL24-58000-P

ETH short-term bulk players have done short call spreads, and there is also collar at the end of the month

Sol is a short-term transaction of more than 1,000, which has no guiding significance

3. Macro market

US stocks:
The ADP employment data released yesterday was a new low in 5 months, and it was lower than the general market expectations before; US stocks continued to rise. Big tickets are stronger. At present, US stocks continue to ATH, but in fact, liquidity risks are already brewing. Later, I will stop profit on some Tesla long call positions. If the position is too heavy, you can't expect a 10X return on the entire position. You should fight and retreat, leaving some fruits of victory.

A-shares:
Market sentiment is extremely compressed. It is February again. People are no longer talking about fundamentals, but more about some ZC-oriented things. To be honest, ordinary people like me don't think we are particularly knowledgeable in this regard. It is still more practical to focus on the targets or ETFs in our own circle of competence.

Worry less about national affairs, and be more down-to-earth and pragmatic to take care of your own family.

July 1 Crypto Options Market Research Report

Pre-positioning, waiting for the wind to come; in-depth research on the target, the option strategy emerges

Coincall (No. 1 U-based copycat options), simple KYC (select HK, fill in the address)

I. Core Views
1- On the first day of the second half of the year, I still maintain last week's bullish view. It is difficult for BTC to fall below 5.4W, and it will break through the previous high. The profit and loss ratio is here. Actively position, don't lie flat.

2- Although the spot market shrank over the weekend, the price actively climbed.

3- Re-sorting the fundamentals of several L1 targets over the weekend, maintaining the previous view that sol and ton have great potential in this round, although ton has a big bug, it is expected to be detailed in a later video.
4- The implied volatility of ETH in the options market has entered the call overflow mode again. It is highly likely that the exchange rate of ETH/BTC will strengthen in July. Maintain the previous strategy; I mainly use the ratio spread at the end of July for ETH
5- Other altcoins such as KAS benefited from the new high of KRC20, and ORDI continued to accumulate power at the bottom. These high-quality targets are hard to come by.

Summary: Late June and July are both the time for layout. It is often not cost-effective to chase high when the market is really rising.

2. Options block trading

BTC weekend options block market volume is not large, mainly based on bullish strategies
buy BTC-27SEP24-100000-C
buy BTC-1JUL24-62000-C + sell BTC-5JUL24-63500-C

ETH block direct layout September long call spread 3400 positions
buy ETH-27SEP24-3400-C + sell ETH-27SEP24-4400-C

SOL block layout at the end of July (within the planet)

3. Macro market

US stocks
Last week, the market rose sharply after the release of PCE data. Although it fell during the session, it generally continued the market pattern of weak large-cap stocks and strong small-cap stocks in the US stock market last week. The index fell sharply at the end of the session, and small-cap stocks still rose against the trend. We need to pay attention to whether the small-cap stock market is coming and arrange the Russell 2000 in advance.

A-shares
The meeting time in July has been set, the market is very weak, and GJD has appeared. So in the more than 10 years since I started working, the current market sentiment should be similar to that of 2014, or even more pessimistic than that of 2014. If you are a volatility bull, I personally tend to arrange more on the call side. Now being a buyer should belong to the second batting zone this year.