August 8 Crypto Options Market Research Report
It is difficult to say that the US stock market has adjusted in the short term. Cryptocurrencies are bearish recently. How to arrange options positions?
This Sunday is the only free trial class for private lessons. You can join the group by adding the assistant’s WeChat: April1336.
Coincall (No. 1 U-based alt options exchange, trading popular alt options such as Sol, Ton, and Ordi)
I. Core Views
1- ETH near-term panic sentiment is particularly severe, and the implied volatility has been sideways in the past two days; the overall implied volatility has reached above the 75th percentile, and the current RV is relatively large. Subjectively, I do not think that shorting near-term volatility has a good profit and loss ratio
2- The current put option purchase premium will continue until the end of September. From the perspective of hedging, the general market view is risk fear, and increase put option purchases to hedge spot and contract long delta positions;
3- BTC ETFs are still mainly net outflows recently, and Ethereum ETFs have recently turned to net inflows, with a total outflow of ETHE of 2.2 billion
4- Among the alt option targets, Sol has a good opportunity to short short-term volatility and use IV premium to grind down spot costs recently, which is suitable for mid- and high-level players. At the same time, this strategy will be very stable if it supplements appropriate put option purchase positions to hedge the overall portfolio
5- Ordi rebounded moderately. The overall BTC ecosystem has not seen any signs of capital speculation recently. Spot positions continue to roll cc strategies to reduce costs.
Summary: Subjective judgment shows that the mid-line is mainly oscillating, and there is no sign of short-term strength. The near-end RV is high. Near-end short volatility players should pay attention to Gamma risk
2. Option bulk transactions
BTC bulk players have bought wide straddle positions in the doomsday round, betting on the Gamma market, and short call spread positions betting on no big rise
buy BTC-9AUG24-56000-P + buy BTC-9AUG24-58000-C
sell BTC-23AUG24-67000-C + buy BTC-23AUG24-72000-C
sol has a large number of covered positions and long put option positions
sell SOL_USDC-16AUG24-180-C
buy SOL_USDC-30AUG24-110-P
III. Macro Market
US stocks:
Yesterday, the overall US stock market rose first and then fell, and VIX also showed a gradual decline. At present, it is difficult to say that the US stock market has adjusted in place, and there is a high probability of fluctuations and downward movement. Therefore, it is subjectively judged that it is difficult for the short-term crypto market to have a big market. It is necessary to balance positions and patiently reduce spot costs.
A shares:
Yesterday I had dinner with friends from financial institutions. At present, the confidence in the financial industry is at a low point. Subjectively, it is worse than in 2018.
