August 1 Crypto Options Market Research Report

The Fed is dovish as expected, US stocks and bonds are rising, but cryptocurrencies are falling. How to break it?

Coincall (No. 1 U-based alt options exchange, trading popular alt options such as Sol, Ton, and Ordi)

I. Core Views

1- Yesterday's video recommended two strategies, one is the doomsday round long gamma, and the other is the long medium-term vega strategy. At present, long gamma has indeed achieved relatively good results and can be closed with profit;

2- Cryptocurrency still needs to break away from the US stock market and move out of the downward trend in the short term, and BTC's ETF also has a slight net outflow;

3- The implied volatility of BTC and ETH is still hovering at a low level. Players who want to go long on medium- and long-term vega can slowly build positions; or wait for the implied volatility to continue to drop to the 3-digit;

4- The overall alt option underlying is falling with BTC. Players of short vol can appropriately reduce the short vol position and focus on whether the spot price meets the delta scalping expectations, and buy high and sell low;

5- In addition, alt options can continue to focus on Kas. In the early days, we made good profits from long calls.

Summary: ETH/BTC exchange rate is sideways, and we need to continue to pay attention to the net outflow of Grayscale ETHE. At present, ETH ETF has begun to show net inflow on the 30th. Subjectively, we are still optimistic about this round of Ethereum spot rebound, and we have also used options to arrange +delta and +vega positions, which are currently in floating losses.

2. Option block trading

The largest block of BTC yesterday was more than 1,200 positions short call spread

buy BTC-27DEC24-100000-C + sell BTC-27DEC24-65000-C

ETH's largest block yesterday was a 4-leg position, and an iron eagle strategy was implemented, continuing short vol

buy ETH-25OCT24-2800-P + sell ETH-25OCT24-3500-C + sell ETH-25OCT24-3500-P + buy ETH-25OCT24-4500-C

For large-scale transactions of sol, please visit the Star Friends TG group

3. Macro market

US stocks:

Yesterday's US stock interest rate meeting released a signal of an upcoming interest rate cut, QQQ\SPY rose across the board, 20-year long-term US bonds also rose, and VIX fell to 16.3. We need to continue to pay attention to the good news of the US stock interest rate cut. In my personal investment portfolio, I still have a larger long-term US bond position, and I also have a small allocation in short VIX ETFs. I have not reduced my previous heavy positions in technology stocks.

A-shares:

From yesterday's trend, regardless of the size of the index, it is generally rising, and at least it is a medium-sized positive line with volume.