I was wondering, will the market plunge tonight? I opened a small short position. The US stock market’s reaction was not as expected, which was the reason for opening a short position.

(Continued from the previous article)
Gold is in a completely opposite trend. It has been fluctuating at a high level to maintain the previous high, and it surged again this morning, indicating that the data from the previous period made investors feel that the possibility of a rate cut in September has increased (it does not mean that this non-agricultural data is definitely good news, as long as it is not ridiculously high, it is considered a potential positive), and the subsequent correction may go long. According to my play style, I may also find a good opportunity to short, with a very good profit and loss ratio. As for winning or losing, it depends on the data😄

Let me talk about Dabing's thinking today:
1. High altitude, high altitude, don't do too much.
2. The decline during the day today is considered to be due to the early realization of the negative news of non-agricultural data. After all, the expectations are still relatively low, and there is a high probability that it is higher than expected. Since it is realized in advance, you can wait for the opportunity to go high, mainly around 5.78 and 6w, and enter the market based on the strength. Later, it will fluctuate in the 5-6w range. If 6w becomes suppressed, the probability of breaking 5w and going to the 4w range is relatively high.

I actually wanted to write an analysis yesterday, but thinking that there will be another non-agricultural release today, Friday, I thought about seeing the market reaction first, and I was lazy and didn't write it 😄 As a result, it fell again during the day

Briefly review what I said last time: (The above said 6.2 was purely lazy, as for why it was 6.23, please see the previous article)
①Low long near 6w, smoothly reached around 6.23w
②High short at 6.23w, also fell after the pin was reached, but unfortunately the short side was not strong, and it stopped falling at 6.19w. But it can also be run at cost
③Breakthrough near 6.23w, go long after stepping back, stop profit at 6.4w. It also gave the opportunity to step back and enter the market, and later it rose to around 6.38w twice, but it was a pity that it didn't touch 6.4w
④High short near 6.4w, 200 points away, but it also gave an opportunity to enter the market in the short term, that is, the second rush to 6.4 only slightly broke the previous high, but it can be shorted. If there is no structural breakthrough, you should hold it long. Does it look okay now? 🧐

There is no mistake in the general direction. It is harmless if the point is slightly deviated.

Review: Breaking through 6.23, 6.4 is under pressure, 6.23 becomes support, converges and breaks, and rebounds to 6.23 again as suppression, laying the foundation for this wave of decline. It went to 5w before reaching 6.5-6.7 mentioned last time.

The decline in the previous period seemed to be strong, but today's strength is indeed 5k points. So now the dream of head and shoulders bottom is shattered, and the short position continues. From a macro perspective, the most likely is to go to the m-head, and the probability is that it will fall below 5w and go to the 4w range for a large cycle of fluctuations. It was said that July was good, and the data in the past few days did reflect it, but it all went to the foreign exchange side. The encryption side is operating in the opposite direction. 🤣 The entry range of Ethereum's big players has also been broken, and the direction is very in favor of the short position!

1. It’s a bit magical. I just reminded you yesterday that the second bottoming has come. The strength is also good. There is even a wedge relay during the decline, and the lowest is a little above 6w.

2. From the beginning, I shouted high air until 21.26, and it was still high air. The facts proved that it was not wrong. Then from the 21st, it was said that there was a high probability of consolidation around 6w-6.2w, and there was nothing wrong with 6.2 high air and 6w low long. Of course, there was also a possibility at that time, that is, if it cannot stand firm after 6w consolidation, it may still fall below the 5w range to oscillate and absorb funds. I personally don’t want the latter situation to happen. After all, it is not necessarily possible to catch up with the sharp drop, and it is a waste of time to miss the opportunity.

3. Currently, the liquidity on Saturdays and Sundays is insufficient, and the rebound strength near 6w is not good. It may not reach 6.2w, so those who have not entered the market are not recommended to chase long. Those who have multiple orders should see whether there is a structural breakthrough near 6.2w. If not, stop profit in time.

Current strategy:
If there is a stop-loss signal near 6w, enter the market with a low stop loss of 2.300 points. After it goes up to 2.300 points, push cost protection in time.
If there is a pin near 6.2w, go high. If there is no structural breakthrough, continue to hold, and also need cost protection.
If there is a breakthrough near 6.2w, go back and open long. Stop profit can be seen near 6.4w. Even if there is a good news next month, it is highly likely that it will not break through at once.
If there is a pin near 6.4w, go high. If there is no structural breakthrough, continue to hold, and also need cost protection.

🤣🤣I haven't looked at the big cake and the second cake for two days

Now it seems to be going well, basically in line with expectations. Since the last strategy was issued, it has stopped falling at 6.05 and is also gradually strengthening.

But the second spike still did not reach the previous high, so wait slowly for the next bottom, which is expected to be milder, and you can try low-long

If it breaks through and stands firmly at 6.23, you can look at the 6.4 range. Expected next month

Attached are two foreign exchange charts made today🥰It is still easier to do than encryption, there is no control, follow strict price behavior, and the trend is more continuous and more suitable for technical school

Yesterday, BTC's short position at 6.23 was still okay. It did not break through the three upward impulses. There was no strong breakthrough for this bottoming out and rebound. Currently, 15f has broken through the upward wedge, and the rebound is not strong. So will we see 6w next, and then a wide range of fluctuations?

Bitcoin and Ethereum are about to break through. Let's see if the breakthrough is strong.
If it is not strong, go short near 6.23 and go short near 3430 for Ethereum. Set a small stop loss of 500 points for Bitcoin and 10 points for Ethereum.

If it is strong, go short at 6.46 for Bitcoin at 6.35-6.42 and stop loss at 3580 for Ethereum at 3500-3550.

Actually, I was quite depressed last night. I predicted that Bitcoin would bottom out again at night, so I opened a short position. At 11 o'clock, Bitcoin fell as expected, and the strength was even stronger than I thought. It went straight to 5.82. Later, it slowly rebounded today (including Ethereum, the rebound strength did not reach expectations), and it is likely to fall again.

What I didn't expect was that Ethereum and Shanzhai did not follow the decline, which led to one stop loss and one capital preservation for yesterday's orders. The rebound of Ethereum also made many Shanzhai see spring, and it rose directly by nearly 10 points. I can understand that Shanzhai has fallen to the point where it can't fall any further, but is it a bit too early? The Ethereum ETF was suspended in July, which only made Ethereum stronger than Bitcoin, and it couldn't continue the bull market. It feels a bit too early to break away from Bitcoin and Ethereum now.

Summary: Bitcoin broke down as expected last night, but I didn't expect Ethereum Shanzhai to go independent in advance. Tonight's strategy is still to choose high altitude

I haven't posted a strategy order for a long time. I've been talking about the market review. Now I don't know what's going on. As soon as I saw the copycat, it fell. There was no suitable entry point at all. I just saw what I could try and went down directly. I was speechless🥶

1.LDO🌟🌟🌟🌟
entry: 2.225-2.278
sl: 2.31
tp: 2.14-2.063-1.974-1.89
Falling in the channel, it did not break down but rebounded to the upper boundary, but did not break through the resistance level strongly, considering high altitude. The disadvantage is that if the market rebounds at night, it may break through the resistance and hit the stop loss.

2. FTM🌟🌟🌟
entry: 0.591-0.598
sl: 0.607
tp: 0.5778-0.5645-0.551-0.546
It is also in the rising channel, following the big cake to break through and then recover strongly, and the performance is weak at the horizontal resistance level. The disadvantage is the same as 1

3. AR🌟🌟🌟
2h level triangle convergence, do not do the upper breakthrough, if the lower breakthrough consider callback shorting

Most of the cottages have fallen into a mess, and we can only find some relatively high positions to do, but the big cake is about to fall to 6w today and the rebound is not strong. Considering that it may bottom out again at night, 6w, if it rebounds after bottoming out, other cottages may strengthen in the short term, and the probability of breaking the pressure level is relatively high, so it is considered a risky order
First send these few to avoid missing out, and send more when you see them later

Let's talk about something off-topic today. What was your reaction when you first saw this seemingly unimportant news? I think everyone might think that the Fed's additional printing and repurchase of US bonds is a good thing, right?

Yes, but there is also important information. I think there is also the depreciation of currencies against the US dollar (euro, yen, pound, including RMB). Compared with the strength of the US dollar, they all need to sell US dollars and US bonds to reduce the demand for the US dollar and US bonds, and take the depreciation route. On the other hand, if the United States cuts interest rates, it will support US bonds (note: it does not mean that interest rates will definitely be cut!!). However, it will slow down the pace of selling US bonds, leaving more funds in the market, which is equivalent to "cutting interest rates" to support US bonds.

With this potential positive, the market may consolidate next month, and the downward trend will not continue. It is just waiting for the US to really cut interest rates. A reversal point of US bonds is also a real positive.

And now many people think that the current market will reverse? Afraid of missing out and not being able to get on the train? I don't think it will, at least not this month.
1. It is not allowed in terms of time level. According to the current optimistic trend, if a large-scale head and shoulder bottom is successfully formed, it will have to go to around 6w or even lower, and it will take several weeks of stopping the decline, and there will be obvious adjustment structure or reversal pattern before considering that this decline is over.
2. If the interest rate cut in September is established, is it a bit subtle when combined with the news just now? Forced to cut interest rates in September, will some speculators consider entering the market in advance? In my opinion, this may be a better entry signal, and the time is also consistent, turning from short to long in July-August.
3. Cooperate with the trend of the cottage to see whether the market will reverse. When most cottages have a sharp drop in the big cake and the cottages do not follow the drop or rebound strongly after the drop, then I will consider that the cottage has fallen to the bottom and it is time to turn to long.

Actually, my mind is a bit messy after writing so much, and I don’t know how to express it. Let me write a brief summary: At present, we still insist on high-altitude, and we must be brave enough to short when the rebound occurs. There are favorable expectations next month, and it may stop falling and consolidate around 6w. The large-scale consolidation will change the strategy to low-long and connect the needle.If 6w cannot stand firm, it will continue to break down, and consider 5w range shock absorption

Maybe everyone has been itching to open an order for the past two days, and always wants to open an order to get something, but I think that for this kind of market with too little fluctuation, you should also control your desire to open an order.

The biggest difference between humans and other animals is that humans can think independently and control their desires. Politically speaking, this is called "consciousness". Humans are conscious higher animals.

There is too much information in the market, and you can see all kinds of market analysis. I also hope that you can combine your own thinking, rather than listening to the wind and the rain. Every time you open an order, you must be responsible for your own funds, whether it is a profit or a loss, you must bear it.

In this kind of market, I recommend watching more, moving less, and waiting for the market to ferment.

Let me talk about my thinking:
If you didn't get on the train during the decline on Friday afternoon, then wait for the opportunity to go high. The liquidity on Saturday and Sunday is not good. My idea is that the big cake will look at the reversal high at 6.5-6.6, and the ether is in the range of 3550-3570, but it has not reached it. It keeps moving at one point.
Then I found a few altcoins with relatively good structures last night and made an estimate of the trend to see if they can break through or rebound (it is just an estimate of the market, not opening orders, so I didn’t post it). Let me briefly talk about it, the picture is in the comment area

1.DOGE: horizontal strong support, upper triangle, no strong breakthrough, continue to fluctuate
2.WLD: horizontal support, lower triangle, no breakthrough
3.PEOPLE: After the triangle converged and broke down, it was connected to a small upper triangle. After breaking back and stabilizing, it broke through strongly, about 17 points, and it was also the only strong order Broken
4. FET: After the strong rise on the 19th, it has been correcting, and the rebound after reaching the key point is not strong
5. NEAR: It rose strongly on the 19th, broke up after the interval adjustment on the 20th, and then adjusted to the resistance level. It did not break through the resistance level but broke down weakly. It rebounded at the interval point on the 20th, and did not break through the resistance level
6. BOME: Two rising wedge adjustments failed to break through the resistance level strongly, and it could neither go up nor go down
It is just a copycat with a better structure, not necessarily representative, please do not criticize. It can be seen that except for people, the others do not have a strong trend, and the bullish force is still not strong.Some people may ask: ‘Why not short?

I agree that the market is weak on Saturdays and Sundays, but it shouldn’t be that weak, right? Can’t even get past 6.45? 🙃

I finished an exam today, and I will summarize the market trends I talked about in the past two days

BTC
1. At that time, it was said that there might be a downward wedge break, but it did not come out and it broke upward
2. It formed a head and shoulders bottom, and I did not expect it to form a head and shoulders bottom
3. The daily line did close with a negative line, but it strengthened with Ethereum during the day
4. It did not touch 6.45 but inserted a pin to 6.46
5. It stood firmly at 6.5 and broke through the downward wedge and strengthened to 6.64 but not 6.7

ETH
1. Ethereum did not continue to fall that night but formed a converging ascending triangle, and the lowest was only 3510.
2. It formed a strong head and shoulders bottom. Not to mention the bottom of the left shoulder, it did not even reach the physical support level, which shows that Ethereum is particularly strong.
3. It formed an ascending triangle near the resistance level, directly breaking through the relatively strong resistance level, and then it also stepped back without falling below.
4. It reached a high of around 3625, but did not hit the resistance range near 3660, and it fell directly below.

In fact, after the breakthrough and the stepping back, it was particularly in line with the bullish trend. At that moment, I even felt that the trend was about to reverse? But fortunately, it looks more like a false breakthrough now. I hope no one will chase and get stuck on it...

Strategy order: (picture in the comment area)

1. PEPE was not received before the market came, so it was directly cancelled

2. LDO did not move when it reached the lowest profit and loss ratio of 1 times, set cost protection, and then set a break-even stop loss in the early morning

3. RNDR reached the profit and loss ratio of 0.7 and then set cost protection, and also set a break-even stop loss in the early morning

4. TON was also not received before the market came and was cancelled

In general, the first half of the big cake went as expected, and then it was strengthened by Ethereum, and the cottage followed the strength, and the floating profit became break-even and left. I went to bed early that night and did not see the strength of Ethereum. I fell down and set a break-even stop and went to sleep

If you get beaten, you have to stand at attention, ignoring the trend of Ethereum that night.

#ETH走势分析
Continued from the previous article
II. ETH
Recently, it can be seen that ETH is much stronger than BTC. Various positive factors emerge in an endless stream. It is much stronger than the big cake. The support of the key position of 3350 is too strong. Why? Because the original ETF has given ETH a certain value through direct explosion. In the eyes of many big guys, 3300-3200 is already a price that can be used for initial position building, so 3300 and below is a relatively strong support range.
1. Back to today, Ethereum has failed to rebound and break through the top at the h level many times. 3660 and 3560 are relatively strong resistance ranges. The general direction is - the same as BTC is bearish
2. From the morning of the 18th to the 19th, ETH stopped falling strongly at the 15f level, forming a perfect reversal wedge, which is different from the pseudo head and shoulders bottom of the big cake. And it went up directly without almost stepping back. Then, it still did not break through the 3560 range strongly. What does it mean? The bulls do not want to exert force at this position. Then, it consolidated below this range, right? Combined with btc analysis, you will come to the conclusion that btc drags down eth. But the big brother is the big brother after all. At this critical position, if the big brother wants to fall, you have to follow.
3. Is it possible for eth to also go to the head and shoulders bottom? I think there is a certain probability, just like the second picture, so during this period of time when there is no breakthrough, I am not wrong to look at the short-term short, maybe it was led astray by the big cake again? It is also uncertain
4. Don’t look at the long position if it does not break through and stand firm at 3570. At least now I don’t see a clear trend reversal signal.

In general, trend + profit and loss ratio, the selected cottage has obviously reached the resistance/bullish weak position, so you can control your profit and loss ratio and follow the trend. You have a greater chance of winning. Doing these two points well can actually make stable profits. But you are also risky in cottages, because you don’t know whether it will pull your plate and go against the trend of the market. If so, you can only be unlucky😭

#BTC走势分析 Let me briefly explain why I am still bearish tonight.
I won’t talk about indicators. If you want to see indicators, just find a blogger and you will know.
Today I will mainly talk about trend + pattern structure.

I. BTC

1. It is obvious from the h level that the big cake has now walked out of a relatively standard descending wedge. Note that it does not appear as a relay pattern, which may be a wedge break. Unless it can break through and stand firmly at 6.5, it is possible to be bullish.

Determine the medium and long-term-down

2. From the 15f level, there is a tendency to go to the head and shoulders bottom. Is it? I don’t know, I can only assume that it is a head and shoulders bottom. What is the problem with this head and shoulders bottom? First, the first neckline position did not reach the expected point. Second, the second neckline position also did not reach the expected point, and it was even worse than the first one. It can be concluded that the bullish force did not meet expectations. Short-term-down

3. Near the 6.5w position. In my thinking, this 6.5 is actually more important than the shoulder position of 6.45. Because this determines whether the daily line closes positive or negative. However, the rebound at this important position also did not meet expectations, and it can even be said to be powerless. Then the short-term direction can also be determined-down
4. Combining the above three points, think about the fourth point. What will happen if it falls below 6.5? The probability of going to 6.45 is greater. Similarly, 6.5 will also become a resistance to breaking up. As I said just now, the most important thing is, if it falls below 6.5, will it only go to 6.45? The daily line closed negative again, and there was another wave of airdrops. Can 6.45 hold up? Possibly, but the probability is not high

So, is this head and shoulders bottom established? Or is it a signal of trend reversal? I tend to think not. The 6.7 watershed mentioned some time ago is now going to be changed to 6.6. If it does not break through and stand firm at 6.6, it is not considered that the trend is bullish

2. ETH
Recently, it can be seen with the naked eye that ETH is much stronger than BTC. Various positive factors have emerged in an endless stream. The rebound of 3350, which is much stronger than the big cake, is too strong. Why? Because the original ETF was directly pulled up, ETH has a certain value, and in the eyes of many bigwigs, 3300-3200 is already a price for initial position building, so 3300 and below is a relatively strong support range.
1. Back to today, Ethereum has failed to break through the top rebound at the H level many times. 3660 and 3560 are relatively strong resistance ranges. The general direction is bearish with BTC

Not enough words

I haven't posted a strategy for a long time. Let's take a quick look. Don't blame me if I'm wrong.
1.RNDR🌟🌟🌟🌟🌟
sell:7.86-8.13
sl:8.225
tp7.434-7.08-6.834 continued to break down
The descending wedge broke smoothly, and then followed the market to rise strongly for a while, without breaking the resistance level and trend line. At present, the momentum is obviously insufficient

2.LDO🌟🌟🌟
sell:2.362-2.45
sl:2.49
tp:2.212-2.1-2 continued to break down
Following Ethereum, it ate two waves of benefits, from breaking through the channel to returning to the upper boundary. It is currently consolidating at a high level with a large profit margin. The disadvantage is that it is currently relatively strong and has high risks

3.PEPE🌟🌟🌟🌟
sell:0.012-0.1245
sl: 0.1266
tp: 0.112-0.107-0.010, continued to break down
pepe is relatively good, with strong resistance ahead, in the channel, perfect downward trend, the disadvantage is also relatively strong, Bitcoin and Ethereum have not rebounded in place, another wave of rise may be a pin-up break, or it may not be connected and go down

4.TON🌟🌟🌟
sell: 7.1-7.3
sl: 7.37
tp: 6.9-6.73-6.48
It broke through, but it happened to encounter this market, and was brought down. At present, it has fallen below and stepped back without breaking the upper resistance. The disadvantage is that it may not be connected

#BTC走势分析 #RNDR: #LDO #pepe能不能拿 #TON生态

Hahaha, guys, I really laughed my ass off.
I didn’t look at Binance much these days because I had to review for the exam.
I just opened it tonight to see if it continued to fall as I thought, and then I saw this clown 🤡
Let me tell you the whole story.
p1: On June 2, when the Bitcoin situation was relatively stable, I asked Sister Bei to take over at 0.141. 🤡 said that I asked her to take over, so I said that she should not seek a sense of existence from me (if she took over at 0.141 and fell sharply, I would certainly admit it)

p2: I don’t know what’s wrong with taking over at 0.141. Did it fall below that day? Or is the point not accurate enough? It should be taken at the lowest point, right? Sorry, I’m not a god and I just took a quick look.

p3: I asked Sister Bei to take over chz0.141 and she took profit. I laughed and said that she sold out too early, before 0.144. I didn’t say I looked at a lot, but she only took a few points? (From 0.14117 to 0.14394) Let’s not talk about the previous high, 0.146-0.147 is fine, I also know that she can’t hold it in the short term, so I didn’t care about it

p4: Today this person came to mock me and said that I pushed it at a high position. Brother? Can’t you see that she sold it? I asked her to take the spot? Did she lose money or what? 😅 Speechless

Nothing, after half a month, now I say I took the high position, and she didn’t look at the follow-up of the profit stop and came to bite randomly. You can check the records and see which one I asked her to buy was a loss? It’s okay if she can’t hold it, and I didn’t let her lose money, it’s nothing more than making more or less money.

🐒 What does this feel like to me? Let me describe it: In 21 years, when the big cake was 50,000, character A asked you to short, and then it fell to 1.50,000, and you ran away with profit. In 24 years, the big cake rose to 60,000, and a 🤡 said: Haha, it rose to 60,000, you are stuck! Fun A

Who is the fun in this story?

There is no good entry point now, it is all hesitant
It seems that Ethereum is still stable at present, neither strong nor weak, maybe it will go to 36-32 if it hesitates, so let's bet on the copycat
1.FLOKI🌟🌟🌟🌟
buy: 0.20632-0.20306 consolidation range entry
sl: 0.2020
tp: 0.2149-0.225-0.23278
This section The consolidation has lasted for nearly 12 hours, and it is time to choose a direction

2.ENS🌟🌟🌟
buy: 22.86-22.45 consolidation range entry
sl: 22.269
tp: around 23.81-24.72
It is still quite strong, I don’t know if it can continue to be strong

3.AVAX🌟🌟🌟
buy: 30.16-29.93 channel adjustment, it is better to enter the market after breaking through the right side
sl: 29.86
tp: 30.82-31.44-32
Neither strong nor weak, it can only be said that the profit and loss ratio is appropriate

4.INJ🌟🌟🌟
buy: 25.85 or enter the market after a breakthrough on the right
sl: 25.5
tp: 26.626-27.8-29.17
Interestingly, it is now on a large-scale trend line, but it has been adjusting in an extremely narrow range for nearly a day, so it is best to wait for a breakthrough or a breakout before entering the market

Note: These cottages are all in an adjustment structure, basically, they all prosper together and lose together, so don't enter all of them. If the breakthrough is successful, the increase may not be the same, it depends on luck
🔥🔥
Finally, small warehouse, don't make the multiples too high, the market is relatively weak now
Pay attention to the picture #FLOKIUSDT📈 #ENSUSDT #AVAX✅ #inj

Yesterday, the highlight was the battle to defend Bitcoin at 6.7w. But today, Bitcoin is not as weak as Bitcoin, but as strong as Bitcoin. So here comes the highlight. Can ETH break through the trend line with large volume today? 🧐#BTC☀ #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥

I stayed up late again. I have to take the Level 6 exam tomorrow. I am drunk. I never fail. I am really a living Bodhisattva. I have done so many good things recently. Can you share some luck with me?