I actually wanted to write an analysis yesterday, but thinking that there will be another non-agricultural release today, Friday, I thought about seeing the market reaction first, and I was lazy and didn't write it 😄 As a result, it fell again during the day
Briefly review what I said last time: (The above said 6.2 was purely lazy, as for why it was 6.23, please see the previous article)
①Low long near 6w, smoothly reached around 6.23w
②High short at 6.23w, also fell after the pin was reached, but unfortunately the short side was not strong, and it stopped falling at 6.19w. But it can also be run at cost
③Breakthrough near 6.23w, go long after stepping back, stop profit at 6.4w. It also gave the opportunity to step back and enter the market, and later it rose to around 6.38w twice, but it was a pity that it didn't touch 6.4w
④High short near 6.4w, 200 points away, but it also gave an opportunity to enter the market in the short term, that is, the second rush to 6.4 only slightly broke the previous high, but it can be shorted. If there is no structural breakthrough, you should hold it long. Does it look okay now? 🧐
There is no mistake in the general direction. It is harmless if the point is slightly deviated.
Review: Breaking through 6.23, 6.4 is under pressure, 6.23 becomes support, converges and breaks, and rebounds to 6.23 again as suppression, laying the foundation for this wave of decline. It went to 5w before reaching 6.5-6.7 mentioned last time.
The decline in the previous period seemed to be strong, but today's strength is indeed 5k points. So now the dream of head and shoulders bottom is shattered, and the short position continues. From a macro perspective, the most likely is to go to the m-head, and the probability is that it will fall below 5w and go to the 4w range for a large cycle of fluctuations. It was said that July was good, and the data in the past few days did reflect it, but it all went to the foreign exchange side. The encryption side is operating in the opposite direction. 🤣 The entry range of Ethereum's big players has also been broken, and the direction is very in favor of the short position!