#BTC走势分析 Let me briefly explain why I am still bearish tonight.

I won’t talk about indicators. If you want to see indicators, just find a blogger and you will know.

Today I will mainly talk about trend + pattern structure.

I. BTC

1. It is obvious from the h level that the big cake has now walked out of a relatively standard descending wedge. Note that it does not appear as a relay pattern, which may be a wedge break. Unless it can break through and stand firmly at 6.5, it is possible to be bullish.

Determine the medium and long-term-down

2. From the 15f level, there is a tendency to go to the head and shoulders bottom. Is it? I don’t know, I can only assume that it is a head and shoulders bottom. What is the problem with this head and shoulders bottom? First, the first neckline position did not reach the expected point. Second, the second neckline position also did not reach the expected point, and it was even worse than the first one. It can be concluded that the bullish force did not meet expectations. Short-term-down

3. Near the 6.5w position. In my thinking, this 6.5 is actually more important than the shoulder position of 6.45. Because this determines whether the daily line closes positive or negative. However, the rebound at this important position also did not meet expectations, and it can even be said to be powerless. Then the short-term direction can also be determined-down

4. Combining the above three points, think about the fourth point. What will happen if it falls below 6.5? The probability of going to 6.45 is greater. Similarly, 6.5 will also become a resistance to breaking up. As I said just now, the most important thing is, if it falls below 6.5, will it only go to 6.45? The daily line closed negative again, and there was another wave of airdrops. Can 6.45 hold up? Possibly, but the probability is not high

So, is this head and shoulders bottom established? Or is it a signal of trend reversal? I tend to think not. The 6.7 watershed mentioned some time ago is now going to be changed to 6.6. If it does not break through and stand firm at 6.6, it is not considered that the trend is bullish

2. ETH

Recently, it can be seen with the naked eye that ETH is much stronger than BTC. Various positive factors have emerged in an endless stream. The rebound of 3350, which is much stronger than the big cake, is too strong. Why? Because the original ETF was directly pulled up, ETH has a certain value, and in the eyes of many bigwigs, 3300-3200 is already a price for initial position building, so 3300 and below is a relatively strong support range.

1. Back to today, Ethereum has failed to break through the top rebound at the H level many times. 3660 and 3560 are relatively strong resistance ranges. The general direction is bearish with BTC

Not enough words