Next week, the first phase of the Bitcoin staking mainnet will be launched, and Bitcoin holders can start locking BTC for staking. This means that Bitcoin holders can get extra income through staking. More Bitcoins are staked, and the selling market will be reduced. At the same time, staking also brings stability to the price of Bitcoins, and also brings opportunities for Bitcoins to rise. More people earn income through Bitcoin staking, which will attract more people to buy Bitcoin.
Recently, the market has stabilized around 59,000, and the short-term negative news has been cleared. Bitcoin option trading also meets the expected $59,000 and has completed delivery. At the same time, the phenomenon of the US economic recession has gradually emerged in the recent increase in the US market after the opening. Bitcoin will slowly return to the beginning of 60,000. Next, we only need to wait for the opening of the US stock market on Monday after the unilateral market to know the trend of Bitcoin in the future.
Currently, the price of BTC is around 58,500, and the key resistance level is between 60,000 and 61,000 The relative strength index (RSI) is neutral at 43, indicating that the market is indecisive. Breaking through the key resistance level indicates a bullish trend, while failure to break through leads to bearish results.
Since the last high of 70,000 on July 29 last month. The downward trend of the market has not been stopped, and the decline in consecutive weeks has led to a surge in the negative side of the market.
As a result, most people are no longer concerned about the price trend of BTC itself, but pay more attention to the news, and pay more attention to the data than the market trend. #BTC☀ #美联储何时降息? #加密市场反弹
Many people think that the decline last night has reached the bottom, but it has not. There will be another big decline in the next trend. You will see the big pie starting with 4 again at the end of the month.
First analyze from the data:
1. The unemployment data last night did not meet expectations, lower than expected, negative, US stocks rose sharply, and funds in the currency circle naturally flowed into the US dollar market. (Negative)
2. After the CPI data was released, it was lower than expected, negative, indicating that inflation is still high, reducing the probability of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in September. The US recession is still in crisis, so market funds began to flee! (Negative)
3. Stablecoins added 220 million, and a large number of stablecoins were minted, indicating that the main force was buying and smashing the market, and the market liquidity was insufficient. (Negative)
4. The US government's Bitcoin address transferred 10,000 bitcoins (worth about US$590 million), and at the same time, Mentougou started a repayment plan. (Negative)
M expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, November and December, which is slightly lower than the current market expectations.
If the Fed continues to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, it will lead to greater market volatility. First, the money flowing into the market will be very slow. The continuous flow of funds into the market will lead more people to believe that the US economy is in recession, so the decline in the currency circle will be very volatile. The possibility of a sharp drop after the interest rate cut will increase, money will become worthless, and the market trend will also shrink in a short period of time, generally leaning towards bearishness.
Facing the arrival of interest rate cuts, it is recommended to start making two preparations in September:
1. In the case of a sharp rise in the market in early September, you can clear 60% of your positions and wait for the market to fall further. Buy at the price of the big cake mining machine, and buy 10% of your positions for every 1,000 points drop.
2. The market is low in early September. Wait for the basic points after the interest rate cut to come out and then sell in batches after a sharp rise. Buying on dips is an opportunity in the bull market!
Many people think that the September rate cut is a done deal, which is a positive, and will continue to rebound to 66,000, 70,000 or even higher. In fact, it is just the opposite, and it is currently a bearish period. This logic was discussed two weeks ago, leaving aside the liquidity of market funds. Because the September Fed meeting is on September 17, there is still more than a month away, and the K-line cannot continue to rise in this month, because this period is too long. Institutions will only start to make things happen two weeks before September 17 to cater to the speculation expectations of the upcoming Fed interest rate meeting and raise prices. Therefore, August must first be a correction, and after reaching a low point, it will start to rush up. This is like I promised to give you a candy on September 17, but you still have a month to eat the candy. You are very tormented during this time, and the closer you are to the time point of getting the candy, the more you will look forward to it and get excited, especially when there are only two or three days left, you will be full of infinite desire for candy. And I certainly won't hype how delicious this candy is more than a month in advance. The market's reaction is swift and timely. A topic cannot last for a month. I will only start warming up 1-2 weeks in advance of the time point of giving candy, so that the expected effect of hype is the best. Similarly, when you get the candy and finish it, your excitement value will return to zero. When you return to the market, the price will go down.
Returning to the K-line level, we can only judge the trend by the monthly line. Since March, the monthly line has been arranged in a yin and a yang arrangement. July closed with a yang, and August must close with a yin. The peak and the low point are constantly moving down. This trend is constantly going down. Only when it breaks through and stands firmly at 73,000 in one breath, this downward trend will be broken. You may question whether the bull market is still there. If you look at it purely from the price point of view, it is still a bull market. But from the trend point of view, it is now a bear market. The starting point of this bear market was the break below the bear-bull line on June 18. Although the price has been up and down during this period, it is ultimately going down in the general direction, so the overall trend is bearish. In the future, when it reaches a new low, it will go up again and start a bull market. That will be the real bull market after this halving cycle.
The CPI data is out, which is positive and lower than expected, indicating that the inflation rate in the United States has declined.
Today's CPI data is basically stable and positive. The US economy is operating normally, and there is no worry about recession, and inflation has not rebounded. This can successfully make the September interest rate cut of 25 basis points a defensive interest rate cut, while reducing the risk of market correction in September.
Risk market impact:
This data is positive for interest rate cut expectations, US stocks, and the crypto market.
Let’s look at a piece of history and understand the future
Let’s look at a piece of history and understand the future Extreme scenarios that could happen within two years
"On September 18, 2007, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.5%, exceeding market expectations of 0.25%. U.S. stocks responded to the rate cut with a huge rebound. Looking back, this was the last rebound before the decline. At that time, the entire S&P 500 was only 2% away from its historical high. However, the root cause of the subprime mortgage crisis was not removed, and a large number of high-risk loans had already flowed into society."
"2008 started badly, with Citigroup and Merrill Lynch setting aside $22.2 billion and $14.1 billion in bad debt losses respectively, and economic data also deteriorated. By January 20, 2008, the S&P 500 had fallen 10% for the year, and other indices around the world performed even worse. Apparently, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke realized the severity of the problem. At an emergency meeting on January 22, the Fed issued a statement saying that while the performance of the stock market was not its responsibility, the current decline meant that the U.S. economy could enter a recession. On January 22, the Fed temporarily cut interest rates by 75 basis points, and a week later cut them again by 50 basis points. This was the largest monthly rate cut since 1987. Congress also passed a $160 billion stimulus package to boost consumption through tax rebates."
Everyone has heard too many stories of getting rich in the cryptocurrency circle and entered this circle. Now, many people have lost more than half of their money from March to now, and many people are on the way to recovering their investment. The recent market has not had much response, with frequent spikes and shocks. Some friends with a bad mentality have already cut their losses and are waiting and watching, hoping that there will be a big drop before and after the interest rate cut to recover their investment. I think this idea is very good. There is always a chance to be short than to be full. Even if the price of Bitcoin breaks 73,000 US dollars this month, you still have a chance to get on the train with an empty position. After being in this market for so long, almost all those with a good mentality have been cut numb. For the market trend, they are almost short-term after recovering their investment and making a profit. I temporarily sold part of it, but most of the newcomers who have just entered the industry have not figured out the rules of this market. When they see other people's profit charts, they become greedy and think about making more after making profits. I have two views on the current market:
1. In the current market, the opportunity to make money by holding on to a coin is suitable for people who make money in the long term. For those who want to make money in the short term, it is recommended to focus on altcoins. You can sell them with a 10-30% profit and wait for the market to fall before buying them again. There will be more opportunities in the future. You will find that the coins you once favored no longer have big movements. The sector has changed. 2. Most people think that interest rate cuts are an opportunity to turn things around. Not only you, but also old investors and some project parties are waiting for this opportunity, so this opportunity can easily be messed up by the market makers. It is not recommended to buy in full. You can buy 30% of the position before and after the interest rate cut, and continue to buy after a big drop. Don't be blinded by the short-term market. It is recommended to sell half of the position when it rises to 80-100%. Maybe you will say that the previous increase was 10-100 times. I can only say that losing money is just a moment.
After the ETF is passed, it will take some time for the interest rate cut to bring benefits to the currency circle!
Many people ignore a very important fact. The purchase of funds for US stock ETF exceeds 50%. This is why the market follows the US stock market. This is a very bad phenomenon. In other words, once the interest rate is cut, the previous currency will fall sharply, not good news.
Because there will be a liquidity battle at the moment of the interest rate cut, many US dollar-denominated assets will fall. Because everyone has to convert to US dollars. But after the period of tight liquidity, the money really flows out, and each asset will rise. It is not that once the interest rate is cut, the money will immediately reach the market. #美国7月PPI低于预期 #美联储何时降息?
Now the market value of SATS has exceeded ORDI. It is not recommended to buy it now. You can wait for it to return to the 0.00028 position to enter the market. The highest position can only be seen at 0.00032. Unless the bull market comes, this token may reach a new high.
ORDI, as the leader of the inscription sector, has now been surpassed by SATS in market value. It was once called the most promising inscription token. As the ecology of BRC-20, the state of the ORDI ecosystem is active. The current price is 30 US dollars. It is not recommended to buy it now. The callback to around 26 is the most suitable position. You can see the 48 position above.
wif, hat dog, the meme coin in the SOL ecosystem, is completely available at the current position. SOL pulled up too fast in the early stage. Now there is a callback. Wait for the market to recover. The price of wif is expected to return to the 2.4 position.
This week is another data week. The market fluctuations will definitely be large. You can buy several existing tokens after the data is released.
Remember, if you regard your investment as a long-term investment, the market decline should be seen as an opportunity. It provides an opportunity to buy more tokens at a lower price. It is crucial to develop a strategy before making any purchases, and never invest all your money in it. If you like spot, want to roll funds together, and hoard bull market spot Click on the avatar, follow me, and share for free #美国PPI数据即将公布 #美国CPI数据即将公布
After August 12, the total amount of tokens to be unlocked and released by 9 major projects exceeds 200 million US dollars $ARB: About 92.65 million tokens were unlocked at 9 pm on August 16, accounting for 2.77% of the circulation, worth about 53.4 million US dollars $STRK: About 64 million tokens were unlocked at 8 am on August 15, accounting for 3.95% of the circulation, worth about 24.5 million US dollars $APT: About 11.31 million tokens were unlocked at 8 am on August 12, accounting for 2.40% of the current circulation, worth about 65 million US dollars ApeCoin (APE): About 15.6 million tokens were unlocked at 8 am on August 17, accounting for 2.31% of the circulation, worth about 9.6 million US dollars $CYBER: About 1.99 million tokens were unlocked at 8 pm on August 14, accounting for 1.99 million of the circulation 8.54%, worth about $6 million Ethena (ENA): about 14.89 million tokens will be unlocked at 3 pm on August 18, accounting for 0.82% of the circulation, worth about $4.6 million The Sandbox (SAND): about 205.6 million tokens will be unlocked at 4 pm on August 14, accounting for 9% of the circulation, worth about $54.5 million Render (RENDER): about 760,000 tokens will be unlocked at 8 am on August 15, accounting for 0.19% of the circulation, worth about $3.7 million #加密市场反弹 #美国7月非农就业增长放缓 #美联储何时降息?
Can SATS surpass ORDI and become the new leader in inscriptions!
Recently, sats has attracted much attention because it will be used as the gas fee for UNI.
The current market value of $1000SATS is 484 million US dollars, and the market value of $ORDI is 567 million US dollars, with a difference of only 83 million US dollars.
SATS coin was not invented by a specific country or person. Unlike ORDI, it was invented by Bitcoin developer Casey, but was jointly developed by multiple international developers. The founder of SATS coin is a young man named Daniel Dabek, who is from Poland and has many years of experience in the blockchain industry.
SATS is a cryptocurrency based on blockchain technology. Its name comes from the smallest unit of Bitcoin, "Satoshi". 1 Satoshi is equal to 0.00000001 Bitcoin. We noticed that both transaction inscriptions and runes will be charged in this unit.
Therefore, everyone misunderstood that this is a Chinese plate, and they did not read the white paper carefully.
With its current popularity, the corresponding market value of 1.2 to 1.5 billion US dollars should be relatively reasonable, which is about 3 times the space. However, it should fluctuate around 0.0003 for a while, so everyone should hold on.
Remember, if you view your investment as a long-term investment, the market decline should be seen as an opportunity. It provides an opportunity to buy more tokens at a lower price. Before making any purchases, it is crucial to develop a strategy and never invest all your money in it. If you like spot, want to roll funds together, and hoard bull market spot Click on the avatar, follow me, and share for free #加密市场反弹 #美联储何时降息? #ordi #sats(SATS)
HOOK, there are new moves recently, will it issue tokens on the SOL chain or the TON chain? One of the tokens in the education sector, the recent rise is the beginning of the sector rotation. As a former IEO project of Binance, the issuance of new coins will attract a lot of traffic at present! HOOK2.0 plans to launch a $50 million education fund ecological construction, realizing the online and offline education experience and interaction of tokens. The plans of multiple education platforms will bring better ecological applications for HOOK tokens. #HOOK
Should you buy at the bottom? Those who dare to buy at the bottom now have bullets, and those who don’t buy at the bottom are still waiting for the market to continue to fall. My suggestion is that as long as the big cake falls by 2,000 points, you can buy at the bottom of the position. The market is to buy low and sell high. As long as you think the current price is reasonable, you can buy it with confidence. For those who dare not or wait, you may miss many opportunities while waiting. If you get on the train, your psychological expectations are completely different from those who don’t get on the train. Buy low and sell high. Now the market has returned to the panic position in June. #BTC走势分析
After the rebound in the past few days, the CME gap has been completely filled. The next question is the height.
I think that this wave of rebound will first set the stop profit position at 65,000-68,000 US dollars. The reason for choosing here is also very simple. After the decline, the short-term indicators need to be repaired. It is impossible to form a reversal at once. It will take time to shock and repair.
Next, you only need to pay attention to the following things:
1. Will the US recession expectations be hyped again? The reason why many people did not buy the bottom on August 5 was that the news of the US economic recession was released, which led everyone to believe that there was a deeper low.
2. In the current US presidential election, will Trump lose the election? After all, in this round of the market, Trump has been closely linked to cryptocurrencies. Losing the election will bring negative effects to crypto practitioners who support Trump.
3. Pay attention to the recent war news. There is a saying that when the war sounds, the currency circle will fall. Every time the war comes, the downward trend of the currency circle arrives.
4. Pay attention to US stocks and daily ETF data. These are the news of the market, which can reflect the market sentiment, especially the rise and fall of US stocks, which have an impact on the currency circle, and the purchasing power of ETFs also determines the direction of the market.
Remember, if you regard your investment as a long-term investment, the decline of the market should be seen as an opportunity. It provides an opportunity to buy more tokens at a lower price. Before making any purchases, it is crucial to develop a strategy and never invest all your funds in it.
If you like spot, want to roll funds together, and hoard bull market spot
Click on the avatar, follow me, and share for free
HOOK is on the gain list today. Is it because CZ is coming back soon? Celebrity effect
An altcoin in the education sector, let me introduce this token:
Hooked Protocol adopts an innovative single token (HOOK) structure, supplemented by the utility token HGT (Hooked Gold Token) within the ecosystem. HOOK is the governance token of the ecosystem.
HOOKED 2.0 plan of the HOOK project. This plan aims to build a new Web3 social learning system, which not only provides more application scenarios for HOOK tokens, but also greatly improves the user experience. The launch of HOOKED 2.0 is not only an upgrade of HOOK technology, but also a major innovation in the entire cryptocurrency education field.
Detailed explanation of the impact of US interest rate cuts
There are two camps on the issue of US interest rate cuts. One group believes that after the rate cut, there will be more currencies that will be conducive to the continued rise of US dollar assets, including cryptocurrencies. The other group believes that the rate cut is the cause of the US economic recession and that the era of US dollar hegemony has ended. They believe that the current market is caused by the Sino-US currency war and that the United States has reached the point where it will face a financial crisis if it does not cut interest rates.
Is the interest rate cut a positive factor or a negative factor? The interest rate cut is not purely a positive factor. After the interest rate cut, the US dollar still maintains its dominant position, so there must be a short-term negative impact and a long-term positive impact. The key is to see whether the capital flow after the interest rate cut affects the market. Where the capital flows, there is a bull market. Similarly, the domestic interest rate has been cut in recent days, but the stock market and the property market have not risen directly. All the money has flowed to the Internet and new energy, so it is important where the capital flows.
Summarize some strategies for losing money in cryptocurrency trading
The following are some key points and strategy summaries about cryptocurrency trading: 1. Bitcoin’s leadership Bitcoin is often a bellwether for the cryptocurrency market. The rise and fall of most altcoins (i.e. cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin and Ethereum) are influenced by Bitcoin. However, strong-quality coins such as Ethereum sometimes break away from Bitcoin's trend and develop independent trends. 2. Bitcoin and USDT’s opposite movement Bitcoin and USDT (Tether, a stablecoin) usually move inversely. If you find that the price of USDT is rising, you should be alert to the possibility that Bitcoin may fall. On the contrary, when Bitcoin rises, it is a good time to buy USDT.
Let's talk about money laundering in layman's terms
Why do criminals launder money? Can't they just spend it directly? Why is USDT the favorite? Here is a very common example: I stole 100 yuan from my mom when I was in elementary school. The 100 yuan at that time was really valuable: That kind of four-wheel drive car costs more than ten yuan, and the extra luxurious ones cost 25... If you buy one, you can be the coolest guy on the street. There are also various combination toys, robots and so on, for 5 or 7 yuan...
Damn, the morning I got the money, I bought a four-wheel drive car. I remember it was called Dancing Angel. I bought an inflatable water gun and spent another 20 bucks on a bunch of miscellaneous items.