Let’s look at a piece of history and understand the future
Extreme scenarios that could happen within two years

"On September 18, 2007, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.5%, exceeding market expectations of 0.25%. U.S. stocks responded to the rate cut with a huge rebound. Looking back, this was the last rebound before the decline. At that time, the entire S&P 500 was only 2% away from its historical high. However, the root cause of the subprime mortgage crisis was not removed, and a large number of high-risk loans had already flowed into society."

"2008 started badly, with Citigroup and Merrill Lynch setting aside $22.2 billion and $14.1 billion in bad debt losses respectively, and economic data also deteriorated. By January 20, 2008, the S&P 500 had fallen 10% for the year, and other indices around the world performed even worse. Apparently, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke realized the severity of the problem. At an emergency meeting on January 22, the Fed issued a statement saying that while the performance of the stock market was not its responsibility, the current decline meant that the U.S. economy could enter a recession. On January 22, the Fed temporarily cut interest rates by 75 basis points, and a week later cut them again by 50 basis points. This was the largest monthly rate cut since 1987. Congress also passed a $160 billion stimulus package to boost consumption through tax rebates."

"On November 20, 2008, stocks hit a new low, with a monthly decline of 20%. Obama took quick action after taking office and appointed Geithner as the next Treasury Secretary. On November 25, the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department released an $800 billion rescue plan. The following chart shows the trend of the S&P 500 from November to the end of the year. We can see that the government is constantly taking action. Central banks around the world have begun to collectively release liquidity and have begun to follow the Federal Reserve in lowering interest rates to zero."

"On January 20, 2009, the Obama administration officially took office. Treasury Secretary Geithner gave a speech on financial industry stability on February 10. He mentioned that he would help large banks to make their balance sheets cleaner and stronger, and would conduct stress tests on banks nationwide to determine how much capital they needed to inject. But investors were no longer buying it. When Geithner was speaking, the S&P fell 3%, and the decline reached 4.9% that day. By March, the economy continued to decline, with monthly car sales reaching the lowest level since the 1980s and monthly unemployment reaching 650,000. On March 9, 2009, the World Bank issued a very pessimistic report, and the market continued to fall 1% that day. Investors were extremely pessimistic. That day was the bottom of the financial crisis. Of course, it was impossible to judge at the time."
#美联储何时降息？