20241205 15:30 market trend analysis of BTC and BNB
BTC first talks about indicator observation:
1. From the technical indicators, BTC finally broke through the 100,000 mark, rushed to 104,088 US dollars, and then began to pull back slightly. Since it has broken through 100,000 US dollars, there will be no obstacles in the long run. However, it is possible to pull back in the short term. After all, it has risen by 40%, and there may be a secondary reversal adjustment. Pay attention to the institutional trends and see if there is continued buying in the next few days. After all, the increase is not that much, and there are still many profit-taking orders to understand. However, if ETFs continue to buy, the new bottom will be more solid. At this position, many retail investors are no longer willing to intervene, but the enthusiasm of the currency circle may attract more novices to participate, and the incremental funds may continue to increase. The bull market has no top, and those who want to start should buy at low prices and never open shorts.
2. Greed and Fear Index observation: Currently at 84, which is extremely greedy, so one should be cautious about risks in the coming days.
3. Observation of the maximum pain point for options in the next 3 months: A large number of maximum pain points are between 96000-98000 over the next two weeks, so it is judged that the deviation for 100,000 USD will not be too far in the next two weeks.
4. ETFs continue to see inflows. On December 4, institutions increased their holdings by 5794 BTC, with most institutions continuing to buy more. Ethereum also saw continuous accumulation, with an increase of 46,400 coins in a single day, indicating high enthusiasm among users for purchasing through institutions.
5. According to the RSI index, all indicators for BTC within the last 7 days are in the overbought range, which also requires caution regarding risks.
6. From the top-exit index, it is currently at a middle position, with the risk of topping out at a moderate level.
7. The BTC holding index is currently high, making it unsuitable for dollar-cost averaging.
In summary, excessive risks have accumulated, and one can only buy on dips. In a bull market, one should not call a top or short; if patient, regularly buy on dips, and keeping costs low is key.
Last night, BNB reached a high of 795.22, then plummeted to a low of 691, and returned to around 725 to consolidate. Those doing quantitative analysis are comfortably taking advantage of the fluctuations. This decline is somewhat related to the new highs of BTC, and it is currently observed that BNB is relatively weak in this bull market. If not doing quantitative analysis, it is quite difficult to keep pace with the gains of mainstream coins. Additionally, the recent surge in BNB again proves that after a long period of consolidation, platform coins tend to move last, and once they move, it may indicate that the overall market is about to choose a new direction. Ethereum is still performing well, gradually rising, with institutions continuously increasing their holdings, solidifying the current price, which should bring some expectations. #BTC新高10W $BTC $ETH $BNB
