After the big plunge on December 20, BTC returned to a consolidation state, but it was a negative decline instead of a sideways trend. The trend was very weak and returned to the normal downward slope. It has not yet stepped out of the short-term downward channel. The mainstream spot is fine. The altcoins fell rapidly within less than 48 hours after forming the lower shadow low. Many investors are anxious about holding spot assets. The altcoin market may enter a stage of continuous decline or consolidation. It is not ruled out that it will experience a violent sell-off and bottom out in a short period of time. So don't play altcoins. Generally, people who play with leverage can't bear the large fluctuations psychologically, and they will be cut off in the end. Please note that this video is only a personal review and does not constitute any investment advice. #加密市场盘整
From the news perspective, the crypto community is paying attention to the potential 'God Candle' trend that may arise from Trump's presidency, believing that the current market slump is the bear market phase within a bull market cycle. If the U.S. resolves its budget issues and Trump implements a BTC strategy, BTC may recover. Currently, the price trend of BTC is unclear, and it remains uncertain whether Trump's presidency will bring market prosperity.
Let’s start with the conclusion, followed by technical analysis:
Regarding BTC: It is predicted to fluctuate in the range of 94000-98000, possibly continuing to decline. If it continues downward, before December 27, 87500 is a relatively strong support level. However, even for bearish views, it is not wise to short; it’s better to accumulate a little on dips.
Regarding BNB: Due to its historical fluctuations around 600 and ongoing airdrop support, its performance will not be too poor. It is expected to consolidate between 640-680.
Regarding ETH: It is expected to fluctuate around 3200-3500, and it will have to wait for BTC to form a new trend before it can establish its own market.
Regarding the hoarding index: Selling pressure has significantly decreased, but fear arises if BTC continues to decline. If there’s no one shouting about it, the drop might be deeper.
Next is the technical analysis:
1. From the BTC candlestick chart, the 4-hour line is performing poorly, with strong bearishness and weak bullishness. Excluding the large drop on the 20th, it has actually returned to a continuously declining channel, but this time it has declined without volume. This downward trend resembles the correction on August 28. If we reference that correction, the depth was about 19%, which would correspond to 87500 in this correction.
2. Greed and Fear Index Observation: Currently at 73, indicating greed, the market sentiment has temporarily stabilized compared to yesterday.
3. BTC perpetual contract funding rate is 0.0069%, ETH is 0.053%. These two figures have increased significantly compared to yesterday, and the long positions are gradually rising.
4. Maximum pain point of options observed in the next 3 months: In the next 2 days, the range is between 97000-99000, which has little impact on the currency value. Pay attention to the maximum pain point of 14 billion on December 27, which has increased from 80000 to 84000. This is a relatively strong support level, and as we approach this position, the buying volume will become significant.
5. Spot ETFs will be closed on Saturday and we will discuss again on Monday.
6. According to the RSI (Relative Strength Index), BTC is currently back in the overbought range on a weekly basis, neutral in 24 hours. ETH is neutral on a weekly basis and neutral in 24 hours, indicating a battle between bulls and bears. The hoarding index has dropped to neutral on a weekly basis and to weak on a 24-hour basis, with significant selling pressure reduced.
7. From the escape top index, it is currently at a middle position, with the risk of escaping the top being at a moderate level.
8. BTC Hoarding Index, currently has fallen to 1.42, making hoarding unattractive.
Overall judgment: Currently, the market is unstable, and there is no clear upward opportunity exceeding the risk. Further declines in honey or coins have caused public sentiment towards BTC to drop to the lowest point this year. Many trading participants and retail investors are showing severe panic, which is good news for contrarian investors since market trends usually go against retail expectations. Some profit by chasing uptrends, while others profit by buying on dips. Buying on dips is relatively safer since there are people guarding the peaks. At this time, it's good to accumulate some cheap goods gradually on dips, as long as one firmly believes that 108000 is not the highest point for 2025, then everyone will see the light.