BTC rebounded last night, driving most mainstream and altcoins upward, but the current upward opportunities are still lower than downward opportunities. In addition, the US stock market is closed for Christmas, so trading enthusiasm will be lower. If it can stabilize around 98,000, it will be a good situation. If you have received goods at the low price in this round, you can sell some of them to make a profit and wait for opportunities. #“圣诞老人行情”再现
In terms of news, a lot of news in 24 hours is relatively positive for ETH. In the past 30 days, ETHETF products have attracted more than $12 billion in funds, and funds have flowed out in only 3 days. According to TechFlow, on December 25, Kaiko's latest report showed that ETH is expected to grow in 2025 due to clear regulation, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate is expected to break through 0.04, which may trigger an ETH boom. The market volatility has decreased in the BTC bull market, and spot ETFs and institutional interest may be the reason. USDT has flowed out of the exchange, and BTC has flowed in more than 15,000 pieces, and the spot market continues to sell.
First, the conclusion is stated, followed by a technical analysis:
On the BTC side: It is predicted to fluctuate in the range of 94000-100000. Although the downward channel has been broken, the trading volume is still not large, and there is too much pressure from options expiration. Additionally, with institutions not increasing their holdings during Christmas, the downward probability remains higher than the upward one. There may also be a brief spike downwards. For now, do not blindly chase highs; if there’s a chance to drop below 95000, gradually buying in is better. Missing out is always better than being trapped.
On the BNB side: It is expected to consolidate around 670-710. Long-term holders should lock in their holdings to participate in airdrops. Although this round of the bull market has not risen as much as BTC, when considering airdrop rewards, it is actually similar. We still need to think about who holds the most BNB; retail investors cannot outplay institutions, and institutions cannot outplay exchanges. Those who understand, understand.
On the ETH side: It is expected to fluctuate around 3300-3700. Recent news is very supportive of ETH strengthening, and this rebound looks to be the same, with institutional buying momentum being much stronger than that for BTC.
Regarding the altcoins: Although the increase is significant, the rebound is weak, driven by BTC, and there is still about 30% to the current peak, making the rebound relatively weak.
Next is the technical analysis:
1. From the BTC candlestick chart, there was a rebound yesterday evening. The 4-hour and daily charts broke through the current downward channel, rebounding all the way to 99487, and then it fell back to around 98000 for consolidation. According to the MACD data, the distance between the DIF and DEA lines is shortening, indicating that the overall trend is indeed moving away from a crash. On the hourly dimension, it is still undergoing a triangular consolidation, waiting for a new trend to emerge. Overall, the trading volume during last night’s rebound was not large, and the low volume trials for higher prices are not very solid, which is why I remind you not to chase highs for now.
2. Observing the Greed and Fear Index: Currently at 73, which is considered greedy, unchanged from yesterday, with market enthusiasm maintaining within the bull market range.
3. The funding rate for BTC perpetual contracts is 0.0105%, and for ETH, it is 0.093%, continuing to rise, indicating that bullish sentiment has returned to a relatively normal level.
4. Observing the maximum pain point of options in the next three months: On the 26th, it was at 97000, and the volume still has little impact on the coin value. On December 27th, the maximum pain point increased by 1000, reaching 85000, with a nominal amount of 14.4 billion USD. On the 24th, the options contract open interest ratio was at 69.15%, indicating a very strong momentum for options to drive prices.
5. Regarding spot ETFs: The BTC spot ETF decreased by 3567 on the evening of the 24th, while the ETH spot ETF increased by 15,700. Institutions are very enthusiastic about holding ETH, and this amount of increase is quite significant.
6. According to the RSI (Relative Strength Index), BTC maintains strength on the weekly dimension, remains neutral on the 24-hour dimension, and has been neutral for the past day. ETH still has relatively little selling pressure.
7. From the peak escaping index, it is currently in the lower-middle range, which also indirectly indicates that the current position is not too high.
8. The BTC holding index has risen to 1.46, making it unsuitable for holding coins.
Overall judgment: Don’t be blinded by a temporary rebound; the risk has not been completely eliminated. You must control your hands and not think about trading every day. Waiting for the right opportunity is the key.