Yesterday, the total amount of liquidation on the entire network reached 1.42 billion US dollars, and 430,000 people were liquidated. Many people who dared to open contracts with a margin of 3 to 4 times or more were slaughtered. This market is so cruel. As a result, BTC rebounded to 99,540 today, which made many people who were slaughtered unwilling to give up and continue to prepare for battle. In fact, if they don’t learn from their lessons, they will continue to be liquidated. So how will the trend go next? Is the bull still there? Let’s take a comprehensive look at the news and data from all aspects and make some speculations. Note that it is only speculation. No one is a god who can make accurate judgments. Those who directly give buy and sell points and make decisions only by looking at the candlestick chart are no different from scammers. Have you joined some so-called groups that require expensive annual fees, and finally got scammed? Note that this video is only a personal review and does not constitute any investment advice. #加密市场反弹
In terms of news, the negative impact of the Federal Reserve has been basically absorbed. The global information in the past 24 hours is basically a mixture of good and bad, with the positive side being the main factor. The US stock market also stabilized and pulled back on Friday night. It can be seen that various blockchain-related institutions performed strongly in the US stock market last night. MSTR directly rose by 11.56%, and there was no trend of institutional selling accelerating the plunge. Overall, the market has initially stabilized.
Let me first state the conclusion, followed by a technical analysis:
BTC: Currently it is consolidating around 98,000. When it reached 92,232 yesterday, the trading volume was very large, which is very good for hedging the biggest pain point of options. If it continues to pull down, the momentum is not as strong as before. It is expected to fluctuate around 95,000-100,000 first, and the view that it will not rise sharply before the 27th is maintained. This position is a position where the risk is slightly greater than the opportunity. It is not easy to open a long order. If it really drops below 95,000, buy in batches and buy to 80,000. It is best not to really fall to 80,000. If it breaks through 100,000, then the positions below 95,000 can actually realize some profits.
Regarding BNB: It performed very well this round. After falling to 620, it rebounded strongly, which was better than that of BTC and ETH. It is expected to fluctuate between 660-710 in the short term, waiting for BTC to bring out a new trend.
Regarding ETH: it fell to a low of around 3101, which is still relatively weak this time. It is oversold and is expected to consolidate between 3400-3700 in the short term. We still have to wait for BTC to stabilize. If you are itching to invest, you can continue to invest in small amounts of spot.
Regarding Goubi: This time, many holders were scared. The lowest price reached 0.262, which was 46% lower than the highest point. Many people who had contracts of more than 3 times the price had their money liquidated. Goubi ranked third on the liquidation list, which is definitely the nature of a copycat coin.
Next is the technical analysis:
1. Judging from the K-line of BTC, there were finally three consecutive 4-hour positive lines last night, and the first big rebound was very powerful with large volume. This is the basis for judging whether the market can maintain consolidation at the rebound position. The decline was so large and recovered so quickly, indicating that above 90,000, the bullish force is still very strong.
2. Greed and Fear Index Observation: Currently 73, which belongs to greed, 1 less than yesterday. Good news, the bull is not dead yet.
3. The funding rate of BTC perpetual contract is 0.0023%, and that of ETH is 0.038%. These two figures continue to decline significantly, and short orders have surged. These short orders will continue to cause a rapid upward breakthrough in the short term.
4. The biggest pain point of options will be observed in the next three months: the price will be between 97,000 and 100,000 in the next three days, which is not enough to affect the currency fluctuation. There is a biggest pain point of 80,000 on December 27, but the drop to 92,232 last night has released a lot of opportunities. Smart people have already hedged in batches, so 80,000 is just a target value, which may not be reached because a lot of volume was released last night.
5. Spot ETFS On December 18, BTC institutions outflowed 2,842 coins. Note that BlackRock also reduced its holdings by 746 coins, and the decline narrowed. ETH outflowed 22,000 coins, which was still a significant decline. Some spot ETFs saw losses and exited the market in this round of investment.
6. Judging from the RSI relative strength index, BTC has returned to the overbought range in a week and to neutral in 24 hours. Taifang has returned to neutral in a week and to CITIC in 24 hours, entering the long-short game range.
7. Judging from the top escape index, it is currently in the middle position and the risk of top escape is at a medium level.
8. The BTC hoarding index has now fallen back to 1.45, and hoarding coins is not cost-effective.
Overall judgment: The huge amount of liquidation and strong rebound have temporarily stopped the panic. There is no new negative news. It is likely to consolidate near the current range. Those who want to get rich overnight may also become penniless. If you still have bullets in this round of decline to the lowest point, then you just barely pass. If you are already fully invested, you have to reflect and adjust your strategy, because BTC does not always fall below 20%. Are you okay when it falls to 30%? It is not just to play dead with full-position spot, but to be able to keep picking up chips during the decline. The mentality should be adjusted to be okay with both ups and downs, never short positions, and never full positions. Only those who control positions and risks well can become long-term winners.
