Bitcoin is currently trading at $64,400, down 2% in the past 24 hours, and many experts remain optimistic about its future performance. Against the backdrop of political uncertainty, halving events, and increased liquidity, Bitcoin may be preparing for a significant rise in the last quarter of 2024.
CK Zheng, chief investment officer at ZX Squared Capital, said that the price of Bitcoin could benefit no matter who wins the upcoming U.S. presidential election. In an interview, Zheng pointed out that both the Republicans and Democrats have failed to address the rising U.S. debt and deficit, a factor he believes will be beneficial to Bitcoin, especially after the election.
Bitcoin expected to rise after election
Historically, Bitcoin has tended to rise during periods of political uncertainty, and the 2024 election could follow that pattern. CoinGlass data shows that Bitcoin has risen by more than 50% in six fourth quarters since 2013, with halving events further boosting gains.
Notably, in the fourth quarter of 2020 (after the last halving), Bitcoin surged 168%. Zheng expects a similar pattern to occur in the fourth quarter of 2024, potentially pushing Bitcoin to a new all-time high.
Other factors
Zheng stressed that Bitcoin’s latest halving event in April, along with increased liquidity, could further drive price action in the coming months. He noted that a potential 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve could also have a positive impact on Bitcoin, especially if the U.S. economy achieves a soft landing. In this case, Bitcoin’s price could be closely correlated with the Nasdaq, indicating increased market confidence in risky assets.
Samantha Yap, CEO of YAP, added that a surge in retail interest following a Bitcoin rally tends to attract media attention. However, Yap believes that the real focus should be on the growing popularity of Web3 applications, which could drive broader industry growth.
The growing digital gold narrative
As traditional markets continue to tumble, Bitcoin’s narrative as “digital gold” continues to gain momentum. Cysic co-founder Leo Fan believes this narrative will attract more institutional investors, especially those seeking to hedge against macroeconomic instability.
Fan pointed out that liquidity is gradually returning to the market, laying the foundation for the recent strong trend in Bitcoin prices.
