On Monday (September 30), the price of Bitcoin fell short and fell below $64,500. As China's stock market recorded its biggest increase in 2015, USDT stablecoin/RMB was trading at a "discount", which usually indicates bearish sentiment in cryptocurrencies, and more funds seem to be flowing into Asian risk assets. The giant whale that has been sleeping for 10.8 years has just awakened and transferred 50 Bitcoins.

Chinese stocks surged in Asia on Monday, with the benchmark CSI 300 index rising as much as 6.2% in early trading, the biggest gain since 2015 and more than 20% from its low on September 13. The number of developers tracked by Bloomberg Industry Research surged 11%. After China introduced its economic stimulus plan last week, the US media released an important signal that A-shares seemed ready to enter a bull market cycle.

Meanwhile, by studying China’s demand for stablecoins, the market can gauge whether investors are entering or exiting the cryptocurrency market. Typically, excessive demand causes stablecoins to trade 1.5% or more above the official dollar rate, while a bear market results in a discount.

Over the past two weeks, China’s USDT premium has been below parity, indicating bearish sentiment. This indicator contradicts recent U.S. interest in Bitcoin spot ETFs, further strengthening the bears’ argument that investor demand is insufficient.

The lack of investor confidence is also evident in the bitcoin futures market, even in the monthly contracts that are often favored by whales and institutional investors because they do not have a volatile funding rate. In a neutral market, these derivative contracts tend to trade at an annualized premium of 5% to 10% to compensate for their long settlement period.

Data shows that the premium remained stable at 6% despite the rise in Bitcoin futures prices to $66,000 on September 29. These savvy derivatives traders maintained a neutral stance, showing reluctance due to fear of missing out, but at the same time, it may have given short sellers what they needed, a signal of lack of confidence.

According to Whale Alert monitoring, at 21:45 Beijing time on Sunday, an address that had been dormant for 10.8 years was just activated. It contained 50 bitcoins, currently worth about US$3.29 million. The bitcoins in this address were worth only US$49,949 in 2013.

CoinTelegraph noted that investors may be skeptical due to the previous rejection of the $70,000 threshold or are concerned that a potential recession is taking place, which would have a negative impact on risk markets, including cryptocurrencies.

While this sentiment does not guarantee a sell-off in Bitcoin, it makes it easier for bears to spread fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) that could depress the price of Bitcoin. Whatever factors dampen the confidence of Bitcoin traders, there is no guarantee that the price of Bitcoin will continue to benefit from the bullish momentum in the stock market.

Some analysts believe that the central bank's shift to expansionary monetary policy indicates that the economy is at risk. Contrary to popular belief, this does not necessarily mean that there is a high probability of a market bubble bursting, as large technology companies are able to gain value even when revenues are falling. With high profit margins and strong balance sheets, companies such as Google, Amazon, Apple and Microsoft can benefit from acquiring niche markets at discounts and face less competition in hiring new employees and purchasing equipment, including microchips for artificial intelligence (AI). In fact, an overheated economy is negative for profit margins because it creates shortages and high logistics costs.

Meanwhile, for Bitcoin, investors may still value its scarcity and sovereignty, but the drivers are very different from traditional stock markets. In addition, historically, when investors worry about an impending recession, they tend to seek refuge in gold, short-term government bonds and companies that dominate their sectors.

Essentially, even if the S&P 500 continues to make new highs, it does not necessarily mean that the price of Bitcoin will benefit. Therefore, Bitcoin bulls need to analyze whether the fundamental conditions have changed since the multiple rejections at $70,000 before concluding that lower interest rates and higher government debt are enough to drive the price of Bitcoin higher.

First, according to Twitter influencer COINAppRankBot, the Coinbase exchange mobile app was ranked 385th on Saturday. Although this is an improvement from 482nd on September 14, it shows low interest from retail investors, despite the 21% increase in the price of Bitcoin in three weeks. However, Bitcoin bulls may say the glass is "half full" because there is still room for improvement.