I wish my family a happy National Day holiday! The vast land of China celebrates the birthday of the Chinese nation, and the harmony of the family and the country will bring prosperity!

First, let’s go back to the market:

Is Bitcoin’s National Day a “robbery” or a “festival”? Historical data tells you how we should play this year?

When you woke up in the morning, were you shocked by the sudden "dive" of Bitcoin? Look at the $65,000 mark, it was broken so easily, just like a joke. Don't panic, let's calm down and talk about this.

Bitcoin: The early bird doesn’t always catch the worm

Look at Bitcoin. It was like it had been injected with chicken blood in the morning. It plunged into the "deep water zone" below 65,000 in a flash.

At this time, everyone should keep their eyes open. If it rebounds weakly and can't even reach 65,000, then it will probably continue to explore lower levels.

However, there is a lot of story here. Bitcoin's weekly MACD is stepping back to the 0 axis, and it seems that it is about to make a golden cross. This is a big drama on the weekly level!

However, if it can really play a weekly bottom divergence, wow, the main force is really ruthless, and the wash is so clean and thorough. After the wash, the momentum of the rise is like a rocket launch, so fierce!

Four-hour line: Hold steady, we can win

If you look at the four-hour chart again, you will find that Bitcoin's rising trend line is like a tough guy, still standing there firmly and has not been broken yet.

If there is no earth-shattering news, it will probably be like a naughty child, shaking back and forth there, just to test our temper.

As for us, we have already arranged the operation like playing chess. Now, we are like a leisurely fisherman, sitting there quietly, not in a hurry, just waiting for the board to point out the direction for us like a fish taking the bait.

National Day Bitcoin: History always repeats itself

Speaking of National Day, this naughty guy Bitcoin always brings some "surprises" to everyone every year.

So let’s take a closer look at Bitcoin’s “glorious history” during the National Day holidays over the years and see what tricks it has played.

•2011: That was a nightmare for the bear market. During the National Day holiday, the market went up and down, from $6 to $2, and then it recovered and started a bull market. That National Day was definitely a "National Day disaster"!

•2012, 2013: The National Day in the bull market was not peaceful either, with either volatility or sharp declines. Anyway, you want to have a peaceful holiday? Not possible!

•2014: Big bear market, continued to fall during the National Day, rebounded after the fall, but still fell overall. Well, it’s another “National Day disaster”.

•2015: In the early stage of the super bull market, the National Day was quite respectful and the market fluctuated slightly upward. This was a rare "National Day".

•2016 and 2017: In the middle to late stages of the bull market, the market either went sideways or rose slightly during the National Day holiday, and the market continued to rise after the holiday. In the past two years, the National Day holiday was relatively friendly.

•2018 and 2019: Back to the bear market. During the National Day holiday, the market was either stagnant or volatile and downward. Either way, it was not easy.

•2020: Big bull market, sideways during National Day, rising after the holiday. But sideways, I always feel like something is missing.

•2021: Bear market cycle, violent rebound during National Day, but peaked 40 days later. This rebound came and went quickly.

•2022: Transition in a volatile environment, followed by a second decline to bottom out, and the start of a new bull market. This National Day is also quite turbulent.

•2023: During the bull market, the market fluctuated within a narrow range during the National Day holiday, and then surged after the holiday. But retail investors, this National Day is not your holiday!

2024 National Day forecast: Stay calm, stay calm

My dears, let's take a look at the historical data and you will know that during the National Day, Bitcoin was like an "old stubborn man" most of the time, either swaying sideways or fluctuating slightly. So, as the National Day is approaching, we should not have too many illusions in our hearts. If it can be stable sideways, we will be thankful. Want it to break through? Let's wait and see if there is such a drama after October 8th.

How should we play during the National Day?

The National Day holiday is here. At this time, most people will go out to travel happily and enjoy the wonderful time of family reunion.

Don't think that only small retail investors are like this. The managers of the main funds can't hold back either. They will also temporarily bid farewell to the market to relax their tense nerves.

As a result, the market seems to have been drained of its vitality. With fewer participants, the trading activity is naturally like a deflated ball, "poof" down. Therefore, every time during the National Day, the market is like entering a hibernation period, cold and deserted.

To sum up: During the National Day, don't stare at the market all the time, go out and have fun! Want it to rise sharply?

That is basically impossible, so we just pray that it can go sideways, which is ideal. After all, the market is just like us, and it is time to take a break after being busy for so long!