静候花开

目前来看，103000以上已经很难再看到明显的空头密集区域。虽然市场此前有一些上涨预期，但这波拉升的强度还是超出了很多人的想象。毕竟没有重大利好消息，却能走出这么有力的上涨，确实让人意外。
5月份就站稳10万美金上方，那么从6月开始，行情就会真正爆发，然后会正式开启下半年牛市走势，不管6月是否降息，市场炒作一定会先行，也就是说从6月开始，炒作降息预期，同时伴随着各国关税贸易谈判的些许利好，整个宏观层面都是利好。
对于比特币而言，下半年突破15万美金，甚至20万美金都不是幻想，所以拿好手中的币，等待全面爆发。山寨层面拉起来也太快了，此前一直给大家说逢低买进，如果你没买的话，那么现在追高真的有点下不去手，继续观察吧，我觉得真正的周期还没到来，这轮山寨可能是因为比特币突破10万大关的情绪刺激导致，基本面其实并没有实质性改变。
接下来行情怎么走，关键要看两个问题：一个是空头是否还有继续做空的信心，另一个是多头是否会在高位接力。如果空头退场、多头迟迟不进，那么市场可能进入新的平衡阶段。
说一下短线山寨行情热点!

EOS因为马上要改名，带动了EOS和BCH的独立上涨。其余山寨大部分还是联动，这一

Trump's statement, "Now is a great time to buy stocks, everyone hurry up," instantly ignited enthusiasm in the global financial markets, and the crypto market also kicked off its bull market journey. In this round of the bull market, it is less effective to focus on K-lines, technical analysis, and fundamentals than to closely monitor Trump's every move. His remarks have become a key barometer for market direction. Bitcoin officially broke through 100,000 USDT, marking a significant milestone. Data shows that on May 9, 2025, Bitcoin's price successfully reached a high of $104,145, with real-time market capitalization climbing to $2.054 trillion, ranking as the fifth largest asset class globally. This breakthrough broke the consolidation trend since early February, with prices soaring 6% within 24 hours, rebounding nearly 40% from the April lows.

BTC breaks 100,000, the entire altcoin market experiences a surge. After five months of hell, dawn has finally arrived. After waiting for 5 months, it’s time to breathe easy. ETH has risen approximately 20 points within 24 hours, with the price directly attacking 2200, marking a sharp rebound.
This market is highly stimulating; it will come quickly in this way, giving a feeling that it’s not quite the right time. Although at this moment some desired coins haven't been bought at the bottom, by this time it’s basically 90% certain that many will be tenfold, and gradually entering later will suffice. The real market won’t end overnight, unless it’s not a real market.

Last night, the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting was also uneventful. Keeping interest rates unchanged was expected. Powell's hawkish remarks afterward were also anticipated. Even this kind of confrontational statement against Trump is more favorable for the market, as the market wants to hear from the Fed Chairman to know that the Federal Reserve remains an absolutely independent institution and that dollar assets are still trustworthy. This way, everyone will feel secure holding dollars, US Treasuries, and US stocks, making the entire financial system more stable. So this is positive news. Did the Fed’s decision not to cut rates lead to a rise? This increase is still event-driven. On one hand, the US has untangled from AI chips and made some progress on tariffs. On the other hand, after the first New Hampshire state passed, two more states have successively approved cryptocurrency-related strategic reserves: 1. Oregon SB167 has been signed into law, updating the state’s Uniform Commercial Code to provide urgently needed clarification on how to handle digital assets (e.g., legally recognized as collateral). 2. Arizona HB749 has been signed into law, which, although it does not allow direct investment, transfers unclaimed assets, airdrops, and staking rewards into reserves. 3. Arizona SB1373 is already on the governor's desk, and after passing HB749, it feels like Governor Hobbs is willing to enact legislation supporting cryptocurrency. 1373 is also a strategic reserve but does not utilize pensions. Of course, there are also unfavorable market dynamics, as the expectation for an interest rate cut has been pushed from June to July, suggesting that the market's speculation on the benefits of a rate cut may be delayed until the third quarter. However, before the end of the year, CME still expects 3-4 rate cuts, meaning almost every month starting in July there will be a rate cut. Thus, the cryptocurrency market will still be impacted by the benefits of rate cuts in the second half of the year.

Bitcoin's price approaches the $100,000 threshold, with buyers dominating the cryptocurrency market. The Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%, along with President Trump's major statements on tariffs, has generated significant expectations in the market. As Bitcoin continues to attract the attention of institutional investors, despite limited participation from individual investors, its current upward momentum is slowly approaching key resistance levels. Technical indicators suggest that Bitcoin may subsequently break through $125,000.

Bitcoin approaches the $100,000 threshold
Bitcoin has recently been in a continuous upward channel. The daily chart is characterized by a series of rising lows and consistently climbing peaks, indicating a stable upward trend. BTC's ability to hold above $95,000 is quickly bringing it closer to the psychological milestone of $100,000.

BTC is close to 100,000, ETH has surpassed 1,900, is the bull back? Is altcoin season coming? How do people feel about the current market sentiment compared to last November-December? Although prices are at relatively high levels, the overall market sentiment is not particularly optimistic. This recent surge has been more driven by event-induced sentiment. This morning's interest rate meeting has maintained a 'Tai Chi' style, which the market has already anticipated. The factors worth paying attention to next are tariffs, trade negotiations, economic data, and inflation trends. This morning, Trump's 'early discussion on trade agreements' directly drove up US stock futures and BTC, with BTC breaking through 99,000. According to URPD data, there is little accumulation of chips above 99,000. If market sentiment is positive, breaking through the 100,000 mark or even 103,000 is not difficult, but the question is: what if sentiment is poor? There remains considerable uncertainty in the market, such as the US-China trade talks just beginning, and subsequent back-and-forth negotiations will inevitably stimulate market sentiment repeatedly, leading to increased price volatility. In simple terms, prices may rise today, then fall tomorrow on some news. Currently, BTC is only a few hundred dollars away from 100,000, but ETH has yet to break through 2,000, and SOL has not yet surged. Expectations for ETH and others to catch up depend on two main points: 1. BTC market sentiment remains strong. 2. ETH begins to support itself with staking narrative hype, while SOL may have ETF speculation. For now, we can only wait and see, as no one can predict what Trump will play. Personally, I believe we are more in a 'price bull market', rather than a full bull market driven by sustained capital and dominated by FOMO sentiment. In other words, this is still a rebound. There may be some hot surges among altcoins, but expecting a full-scale 'altcoin season' may still be premature, especially wanting to return to the highs of those altcoins from last November-December is still not easy.

Early this morning, the Federal Reserve announced that the interest rate would remain unchanged, which aligns with market expectations. What impact will this have on the upcoming bull market in the cryptocurrency sector? Although there was no rate cut in May, maintaining the interest rate is within the market's predictions, so the news released early this morning is positive for the market itself. Bitcoin also broke through the $98,000 mark, and currently, since there was no rate cut in May, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in June and July will greatly increase, which is also a conclusion drawn from the analysis of the released data by the market.

Today, focus on two major news: one is the Ethereum upgrade in the afternoon.
What's important is tonight's interest rate decision and Powell's speech.
Two scenarios: one is to maintain the interest rate unchanged, and the market will continue to adjust.
The other is to cut interest rates, which will undoubtedly be a significant boost and will once again rally the market.
Pay special attention to Powell's speech; hawkish represents a tendency to stir things up.
There will be significant fluctuations at that time, so be mindful of position management and operate cautiously.
Kaito is still strong.
Tokens from cooperative projects worth 71.3 million dollars have been distributed to Yappers.
And this does not include Kaito itself - it airdropped about 30 million dollars in BOOP;

Recently, the cryptocurrency market has been incredibly lively, with Bitcoin skyrocketing like a rocket, directly breaking through the $97,000 mark, leading the entire digital asset market to flourish. In the past 24 hours, the total global cryptocurrency market cap surged by 1.64%, reaching an astonishing $2.98 trillion. This surge is mainly attributed to the strong performance of the two giants, Bitcoin and Ethereum, which, like leaders, are pushing others upwards.

How intense is this wave of market activity? Bitcoin surged more than $3,500 in just a few hours, reaching a high of $97,469. This rapid increase forced those who shorted Bitcoin to face significant losses, with about $55 million in short positions being liquidated. Such a large trading volume indicates a particularly high enthusiasm for Bitcoin in the market, but fortunately, it hasn't reached a frenzied level; from a technical perspective, this increase appears relatively healthy.

News at 5 AM caused Bitcoin to surge directly to a price of 97,800. From the daily chart perspective, although BTC has broken through the previous high resistance near $95,700, it has shown a shrinking upward trend for two consecutive days, suspected to be a pump-and-dump scheme, so I do not recommend chasing the rise. Today's 'East Country Hunting' rally may be a short-term behavior, with doubts about sustainability. Meanwhile, the MACD has crossed bearish, and technical indicators show divergence, so caution is needed. Personally, I suggest shorting at 97,500 with a stop loss near 98,000 and a take profit near 95,200. From the perspective of U.S. stock trends, it is currently experiencing a clear pullback. Now BTC is rising against the trend. This is an abnormal market, stay steady.

Bitcoin is attempting to turn more significant resistance levels back into support, but bulls are not done yet, with 2025 set to be a key battleground.

BTC has broken through three key resistance levels in a week, but its largest retracement battle is still ongoing.
Analysis from sources, including renowned trader and analyst Rekt Capital, emphasizes that the BTC price is in a key area for bulls.
Bitcoin breaks through 'triple resistance'.
Rekt Capital reveals that Bitcoin's latest weekly chart has reclaimed three resistance lines.
In addition to weekly horizontal resistance, BTC/USD has also broken through the months-long downtrend previously discussed by Cointelegraph, as well as the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA).

The Ethereum Fusaka upgrade is expected to be implemented in the second half of 2025, removing the complex EVM Object Format (EOF), but it is also interpreted as the community's hesitation regarding EVM improvements after Vitalik proposed RISC-V.
Ethereum announces that the Fusaka hard fork upgrade is expected to be implemented in the third or fourth quarter of 2025. This upgrade is a major update following Ethereum's Pectra upgrade in May 2025. However, the originally planned inclusion of the EOF (EVM Object Format) upgrade has been confirmed to be removed from the upgrade by core developers due to technical complexity and risk controversies. Overall, the 2025 upgrade roadmap is seen by the community as Ethereum refocusing on scalability and overall performance enhancement, reducing the priority of usability and operational optimization in the fork.

Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick predicts that multiple indicators show Bitcoin is set for a new round of increases, anticipating Bitcoin will rise to $120,000 in Q2. Meanwhile, Bernstein analysts pointed out that the exhaustion of retail selling pressure, the expansion of corporate accumulation competition, and the influx of funds into Bitcoin ETFs are driving a 'supply squeeze' that could lead Bitcoin to achieve a new historical high.
The cryptocurrency market has begun to recover since last week, and Bitcoin has recently briefly surpassed the $95,000 mark multiple times, currently standing at $95,329, demonstrating a robust price performance.

Cardano's price has started a new round of increase from the $0.620 area. ADA is currently consolidating around $0.70, with the potential to break the $0.720 area to continue rising.
ADA's price has started to recover from the $0.650 area.
The trading price is above $0.680 and the 100-hour simple moving average.
On the hourly chart for ADA/USD, a connecting bearish trend line has formed, with resistance at $0.7180 (data sourced from Kraken).
If the resistance area at $0.720 is broken, this currency pair may begin to rise again.
Cardano's price faces resistance.
In the past few trading days, Cardano has dropped again from the level of $0.7350, similar to Bitcoin and Ethereum. ADA has broken below the support levels of $0.720 and $0.70.

On Monday (April 28), Bitcoin fell to $93,000, facing the risk of bears attempting to take control. Over the weekend, U.S. President Trump 'poisoned' the atmosphere, emphasizing that the possibility of pausing taxes again is small, stressing that this is a windfall for the U.S., and stating that federal income tax will be significantly reduced. Despite the renewed tensions of the tariff war, Wall Street's biggest whale, Strategy Company, has once again issued a signal to increase holdings, potentially disclosing increased holdings data this week.

Trump stated that the possibility of pausing tariffs again is small.
Trump pointed out that once the proposed trade tariffs are fully implemented, federal income tax will be 'significantly reduced' or completely eliminated. He noted that the accompanying tax cuts would primarily target individuals earning less than $200,000 a year.

In the past week, Bitcoin surged from $85,000 to $95,000. Behind this seemingly soaring market are three key signals. These signals not only reveal the essence of this round of market but also foreshadow significant changes that may occur in the coming week.
Who is really driving this round of market?
Contrary to what retail investors might imagine, the core driving force of this round of market comes from traditional financial institutions in the US. The Coinbase trading platform continues to lead Binance in price trends, with over $3 billion flowing into ETFs in a single week, and the news that 'sovereign funds are buying crazily' flowing out of institutions all point to one fact: Wall Street is rewriting the rules of the cryptocurrency game with real money.