Recently, many fans have come to me with similar questions, mainly focusing on a few areas: Will BTC drop back to 80,000? Will the market experience another major decline? Can we bottom fish around 90,000 for BTC? When can we buy altcoins? What to do if the coins in hand are stuck? These questions are probably what everyone is most concerned about right now. Today, I will summarize the answers to these questions and explain them clearly in plain language.

How did last March's bull market come about?

The bull market in March 2024 is mainly due to two major news events: one is the anticipated halving of BTC every four years, and the other is the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut in three years. Once these two pieces of news came out, market sentiment exploded, especially since the crypto market had been quiet for a long time, and everyone was holding back their energy.

On February 17, cryptocurrency prices experienced significant market turmoil, with BTC, ETH, and other altcoins all depreciating.

On Monday, cryptocurrency prices mainly continued to show a sluggish performance, raising uncertainty among global investors. Bitcoin (BTC) price faces market turmoil, priced at $96,000, while ETH is also in the red. Additionally, XRP and Solana face severe obstacles, mainly in the red during trading hours. However, Sonic (S) became the leader on Monday, going against the market trend.
Here is a brief report on some of the hottest currency prices as of February 17.

Last week, the cryptocurrency market was quite volatile due to the latest inflation report. This led to price corrections for many altcoins, such as BNB, Litecoin, and XRP, hovering near their lows. Nonetheless, large investors view this as an opportunity to buy more coins, which may result in a significant rebound in the prices of these altcoins this week.
BNB
Binance Coin (BNB) has recently failed to maintain momentum above $700, leading to a decline in buying interest. The current target for sellers is to re-test $650. Currently, the price of BNB is $656, down 0.2% in the past 24 hours.

The four-year bull and bear cycle has ended! For the next 25 years, we will enter a new law in the cryptocurrency world: survival of the fittest, elimination of the unfit. Let's first discuss why the four-year bull and bear cycle has become a thing of the past. 1: The halving effect. Looking at the halving effect of BTC, it is indeed becoming less effective each time, with each halving reducing the issuance of new Bitcoins. For example, the reductions in 2012 and 2016 were 50% and 25%, respectively, which had a significant impact on market prices. However, by 2024, the halving will only reduce the issuance by 6.25%, meaning that the halving's influence on price has greatly diminished. 2. ETFs have changed the rules of the market. From a demand perspective, the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs is a significant variable. Firstly, ETFs are financial instruments that allow traditional market investors to indirectly invest in Bitcoin. This means traditional funds have treated ETFs as a springboard. Since their introduction, the demand has far exceeded expectations, and this influx of demand has not only changed the overall landscape of the cryptocurrency world but also broken many old market rules. As we mentioned in the title, the four-year cycle of bull and bear markets has ended. The biggest impact of ETFs is reflected in the altcoin market, specifically the price rotation relationship between Bitcoin and altcoins. In 2017 and 2021, when Bitcoin prices rose, many whales and institutions would transfer profits from BTC to altcoins, thus driving the altcoin season. However, most new funds are now entering the market through Bitcoin ETFs, and this money is not flowing into the altcoin market. In other words, the way funds flow has fundamentally changed, and the wealth effect of Bitcoin on altcoins is weakening. In simple terms, Wall Street's money is flooding in, but this money goes directly into Bitcoin and will not flow to other small altcoins. It's like a supermarket located along a highway where customers buy and leave without stopping at the small vendors beside them. If the above factors do not change, then the theory of bull and bear cycles is no longer applicable to the current cryptocurrency world.

The riddle event for CZ's (Binance founder) pet name, lasting a day, was finally revealed today (February 14) at dawn, followed by a chain PVP battle themed around Broccoli, and BNB Chain faced a large-scale stress test.

A feast for DEV and insider players, with retail investors becoming victims of liquidity exit.
After TST surged following CZ's mention, CZ's movements became the focus of MEME players. On the morning of February 13, CZ tweeted expressing curiosity about the operation mechanism of MEME coins, asking if simply sharing the pet's name and photo would lead to the creation of related tokens, and questioning how to distinguish the 'official' version.

Happy Valentine's Day, brothers!
Recently, CZ has been very active. Compared to his high-profile appearances, I personally pay more attention to the recent events regarding ETFs. After all, this is a major boost that can truly bring fresh blood to the crypto space, marking a move towards a more regulated and legitimate track for the industry.
Currently, only Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have been approved, and the news of a one-time approval for three tokens is enough to prove external recognition of the crypto space. These three tokens—SOL, XRP, and LTC—each have compelling stories behind them.
From the market's perspective, SOL and XRP are the most followed, with very close market capitalization rankings and price increases. Especially SOL, as a local project in the U.S., undoubtedly has the most advantageous background among the three. However, SOL also has some issues that cannot be ignored. Firstly, it is the shortest listed token among the three and has experienced the black swan event of the FTX collapse. Furthermore, SOL has not undergone two cycles of bull and bear market tests, which makes its safety an unknown factor. Therefore, I believe the probability of SOL getting ETF approval is low.

The Ethereum Foundation (EF) announced yesterday (13th) that it has deposited a total of 81,000 ETH into major DeFi projects such as Spark, Aave, and Compound. Is there hope for Ethereum?
The Ethereum Foundation (EF) stated yesterday evening (13th) on social media platform X that its treasury has deposited a total of 81,000 ETH into major DeFi projects such as Spark, Aave, and Compound.
Deposited 10,000 ETH into Spark
Deposited 10,000 ETH into Aave Prime
Deposited 20,800 ETH into Aave Core

Deposited 4,200 ETH into Compound

Yesterday, the eagerly awaited CPI data was finally released, and the result came out at 3%! Higher than the previous guess of 2.9%. Not only CPI, but also broader CPI and core CPI inflation indicators are on the rise.
Such results are certainly not good, and the impact on market sentiment is quite significant, especially since this is happening before the tariffs are officially implemented; if implemented, it would likely be more troublesome. Of course, the current inflation is not the focus, or rather, the current inflation is already within the Federal Reserve's expectations, which is why the Fed has not rushed to cut interest rates. Market sentiment is likely to be relatively low.

This wave of artificial market driven by Binance has left small investors missing out. Pay attention to sector rotation. The first was the PVP casino market led by SOL, then the BSC market led by Binance. What’s next? Without thinking too much, it will be Ethereum-related markets.

Next, the market will first look at Bitcoin. We need not worry about the market falling independently. After experiencing so much macro data, we will find that even if the data is bearish or the speeches are bearish, the market can quickly recover. The logic behind this is due to the involvement of American capital. If there are no significant macro news in the future, Bitcoin is likely to continue moving towards 100k+, and Ethereum will also rise because it is about to face expectations of Ethereum upgrades, including the speculation of Ethereum ETF staking.

Last night, Bitcoin quickly rebounded to $98,000 due to the moderate remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and Trump's statements. However, the options market shows that investors' expectations for a significant rise in Bitcoin in the future are weakening.
Last night, the U.S. released a consumer price index (CPI) data that exceeded expectations, showing that inflation remains highly sticky, reducing market expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates, leading to a sharp decline in the crypto market, with Bitcoin dropping to $94,000.
However, with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's moderate remarks stating: 'We will not overreact to one or two bad data points,' combined with Trump's statement calling for lower interest rates, and the revelation that Russian President Putin agrees to initiate ceasefire negotiations, Bitcoin quickly rebounded.

Tonight at 9:30 PM, the United States will release the CPI data, and without a doubt, it will be a day of significant market volatility. February only has today as a relatively important day.

The CPI data has been released, and immediately after, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will give a speech focusing on the monetary policy for the next six months, the importance of which goes without saying.

Looking at the CPI data for the entire year of 2024, after hitting a low of 2.3, the values began to gradually rise. The price of Bitcoin is similarly crucial, as the expected values and the published values have been very close for three consecutive months, unlike the significant discrepancies seen before. This also reflects that the American economy is relatively in line with expectations, which cannot be separated from the influence brought by Trump's presidency. All the data began to change after his successful election. The cryptocurrency market has just experienced a wave of sharp declines. Analyzing the data shows that the CPI data is highly likely to meet expectations. Since Trump took office, he has not mentioned cryptocurrency, which has disappointed many. However, one should not focus on what he says, but rather on what he does. First, he has issued a coin, and he did so with his family. Second, he has been purchasing digital currencies himself. Actions speak a thousand times louder than words. Now that his identity is different, his speeches must weigh the pros and cons. Therefore, do not be confused by some flashy news; more contemplation may reveal the truth.

Billionaire Musk (Elon Musk) changed his official Twitter account name to Harry Bolz on Tuesday (February 11), attracting significant attention from traders. This rare action sparked the newly launched Harry Bolz meme coin on the U.S. blue-chip public chain Solana, with the coin price skyrocketing over 17,000% in just 30 minutes, but speculative sentiment quickly receded.
Harry Bolz is a pun – a playful tribute to the Western crude humorous slang 'Hairy Balls'. Musk himself acknowledged this joke back in 2023, but that did not stop crypto enthusiasts from seizing the opportunity. Once he changed his display name, the little-known Harry Bolz cryptocurrency skyrocketed, with traders rushing to buy what they believed could be the next wave similar to Dogecoin (DOGE).