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@TheWolfThatWins
Inside each of us we have 2 wolves fighting, the bad, negative, toxic wolf and the positive, happy and peaceful wolf, so which wolf wins? The one you feed!
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Crypto prices are low ? The VC cartel is still making a fortune (Off you)
I will show you in this post that no matter how low you think Crypto prices are currently, the early investors(VC) dont care and are in huge profit regardless.
This is a long read but you will learn something from this post, it also includes a trade idea at the end. (Because most will all ask anyways 😂)
I research crypto A LOT, probably to much for my own sanity, i know how the crypto market is getting manipulated and how retail is being used to make VC investors even richer.
Most in Crypto sadly dont understand this, hopefully this post will teach you something.
Thank you to TRimmis for pointing this unlock out for me🤝
In this post i am Using AltLayer as an example.
In 10 days AltLayer has a very important unlock happening, important for the early investors , this is a great example of a much larger problem happening in crypto.
While i am focusing on AltLayer for this post, AltLayer is just one of hundreds of projects that are founded, funded, launched on exchanges , all in a very similar way.
Pro VC, Anti retail.
For reference VC/VCs are venture capital/capitalists ( Investors who fund crypto projects before retail traders can buy them)
Case Study $ALT - AltLayer.
Current price - 0.1329
Current Market cap - $ 146 Million
Fully diluted value - $1.32 Billion
Circulating supply - 11%
For this post i want to focus on Investors(including advisors) and team.
I want to break down how profitable it is starting a project like AltLayer.
As shown in the image above the Team and Investors(Including advisors) have 38.5% of tokens(Total supply) allocated to them.
Team 15%Investors 18.5%Advisors 5%
Before we go further it is important to understand that these projects have a vesting period
A vesting period is a predetermined amount of time that tokens are locked, before this time the tokens should not be allowed to be unlocked, transferred or sold. A vesting period is supposed to protect retail investors from rug pulls and rapid inflation, vesting periods can be split into many unlocks over many years.
I underlined the word "should" because this is not always the case, in projects that are dodgy or where the project team/investors make the decisions, these unlocks can happen whenever the project team want, it was why months ago i told people to sell their PYTH tokens(And i got a lot of hate), the Pyth project team did exactly that, they unlocked their tokens prior to the vesting period to sell at a better price.
After the vesting period tokens will be unlocked and distributed as per the defined allocation breakdown, these unlocks happen in 2 ways, a linear or cliff unlock.
Linear is a slow release of tokens over time, could be days,weeks,months. Cliff unlock is a total unlock on a certain date.Cliff unlocks have far more impact on price as they potentially flood the market with new supply, the larger the unlock % to the current circulating supply, the larger the possible effect.
In 10 days $ALT (AltLayer) has a HUGE cliff unlock coming !👇
684 Million $ALT tokens will be unlocked, an increase of 42% of the current supply, this unlock is worth $86.7 Million
This is the breakdown 👇
I have underlined the token unlocks going to team and investors.
The $ amount of the July 25th unlock (at todays prices)
Team - $23.8 MillionInvestors - $39 MillionAdvisors - $10 Million
This is USD value, this is what they can sell their unlocked tokens for.
Investors and advisors are basically the same thing, so $49 million going to investors in this unlock.
In 10 days the early investors will be able to cash out this $49 Million
This is what VCs paid to invest in AltLayer.👇
Lets break this down.
The TOTAL raised for AltLayer funding was $21.6 Million.
Inicial seed VCs ($7.2M invested) paid $0.008 for their tokens( at current prices they are up 1400% ROI)
Strategic partners($14.4m Invested) paid $0.018 for their tokens (at current prices they are up 576% ROI)
Also please note this $14.4M strategic investment happen in Feb 2024, 5 months ago.
In the July 25th unlock alone the investors will unlock $49 million worth of tokens, this is just one of many future unlocks to come.
AltLayer only launched on Binance 6 months ago.
This is the first cliff unlock for investors, they are unlocking $49 million worth of value on their first unlock, total funding was $21 Million.
As the image above shows, the VCs will still recieve tokens via unlock until mid 2028, on their first unlock alone they have already more than 2x their funding investment.
$21.6 million funded($14 Million of which was 5 months ago) -> $49 million on first unlock.
For uninformed retail traders the current AltLayer prices seem low.
Why?
It is basically a PsyOP and little else.
We have slowly been manipulated to accept that the price tokens trade at in the days-weeks after launch is their fair value, or even that they are undervalued.
Because AltLayer was $0.60 or $0.50 only a couple months ago we now believe that the current price of 0.132 is an absolute gift.
The VCs on AltLayer will make $28 Million(or more) profit on their first unlock , after that they have 4 more years of profitable unlocks to come, this unlock returns their full investment and a large profit, we make it so easy for them.
95% of these projects have little real world usage, their value is solely what retail traders will pay for tokens and how much VCs can make.
Each of these projects have their own diehard fan base, for AltLayer it is probably the people who went all in at $0.50-$0.60 , now they have to tell themselves and others that it is the best project in the world.
Also note that Binance are one of the investors, not only on AltLayer but nearly all other tokens launched on the exchange, they get free/basically free % for launching the project on Binance, they make Billions off it.
Binance rarely, if ever, disclose their funding agreement with these projects, you can decide for yourself why (So i dont get banned)
There is no solution to this until most of Crypto stops supporting these projects.
The tokens from the upcoming Altlayer unlock will be dumped in the days-weeks after the unlock (Or before if they dont respect the vesting period)
The sale of these tokens give early investors a risk free and profitable investment, the next 4 years are all profit.
The problem is the VCs know that many in Crypto are becoming wiser to these VC funded, mostly garbage projects, and to the unlocks.
These tokens could be unlocked prior to the scheduled unlock, price could also be manipulated in the days before and after the unlock so the VCs and Team can get max value when they dump their tokens.
These VCs are already rich, they can afford to hold the tokens after unlock, just because they are unlocked doesnt mean they will be sold, it just makes them transferable to be sold.
With current economic/crypto price uncertainty i feel that the VCs will dump most of their tokens around this unlock.
I want to use this knowledge and find the best way i can make profitable trades around these unlock events.
Please note,
I am a crypto spot holder, over 90% of my crypto holdings are in spot, most in self custody, i use a very small % of my bankroll for trades like these.
If you dont have discipline, patience and you are just looking to 10x your money quickly then my trade ideas are not for you, i did basically 0 technical analysis for this trade idea, this is purely based on macro circumstances and supply/demand and greed(VC).
My plan,
The unlock is on the 25th July.
I will short AltLayer late next Sunday, the 21st July.
Weekends often push crypto prices up so this might give me the best entry.
I want to have my trade open days before the unlock to possibly profit off other traders "selling the news"
I also want to profit if tokens are unlocked and sold prior to the vesting period (It happens)
I will short whatever the price is late Sunday 21st July.
I will short at 2-3x leverage max.
Whatever happens to price in the coming days i dont care, i will have absolutely 0 risk of liquidation.
I plan on holding the trade until hours before the Feds interest rate decision on the 31st July, or if my take profit is hit.
I dont want to be at risk if the Fed gives a surprise interest rate cut, this would be Bullish for crypto, including AltLayer.
When i make trades like this i set a SL that will protect me from a huge price movement, a SL i am comfortable losing if i am wrong, i use low leverage and margin so my trades have the room to play out, im not looking to get rich quick.
I dont even look at my trades once i have opened them, if i do i second guess myself, i set price alerts at areas i want to start taking profit.
This is my plan unless something drastic happens between now and then.
I will update if anything changes.
This is a low leverage, low margin trade idea, if you high leverage you will most likely just be liquidated, these projects and their unlocks are easily manipulated if the project team/investors dont act in a moral way.
Please do your own research, if you know more info then share 🤝
I try my best to give the best advise and information but i cant follow each crypto project constantly, things change all the time in crypto.
If you enjoyed this post a like is always appreciated, i put a lot of time and love into these posts.🤙
Peace
#TheWolfThatWins #altsesaon #AltLayer #BinanceSquareFamily 👇
This is a long read but you will learn something from this post, it also includes a trade idea at the end. (Because most will all ask anyways 😂)
I research crypto A LOT, probably to much for my own sanity, i know how the crypto market is getting manipulated and how retail is being used to make VC investors even richer.
Most in Crypto sadly dont understand this, hopefully this post will teach you something.
Thank you to TRimmis for pointing this unlock out for me🤝
In this post i am Using AltLayer as an example.
In 10 days AltLayer has a very important unlock happening, important for the early investors , this is a great example of a much larger problem happening in crypto.
While i am focusing on AltLayer for this post, AltLayer is just one of hundreds of projects that are founded, funded, launched on exchanges , all in a very similar way.
Pro VC, Anti retail.
For reference VC/VCs are venture capital/capitalists ( Investors who fund crypto projects before retail traders can buy them)
Case Study $ALT - AltLayer.
Current price - 0.1329
Current Market cap - $ 146 Million
Fully diluted value - $1.32 Billion
Circulating supply - 11%
For this post i want to focus on Investors(including advisors) and team.
I want to break down how profitable it is starting a project like AltLayer.
As shown in the image above the Team and Investors(Including advisors) have 38.5% of tokens(Total supply) allocated to them.
Team 15%Investors 18.5%Advisors 5%
Before we go further it is important to understand that these projects have a vesting period
A vesting period is a predetermined amount of time that tokens are locked, before this time the tokens should not be allowed to be unlocked, transferred or sold. A vesting period is supposed to protect retail investors from rug pulls and rapid inflation, vesting periods can be split into many unlocks over many years.
I underlined the word "should" because this is not always the case, in projects that are dodgy or where the project team/investors make the decisions, these unlocks can happen whenever the project team want, it was why months ago i told people to sell their PYTH tokens(And i got a lot of hate), the Pyth project team did exactly that, they unlocked their tokens prior to the vesting period to sell at a better price.
After the vesting period tokens will be unlocked and distributed as per the defined allocation breakdown, these unlocks happen in 2 ways, a linear or cliff unlock.
Linear is a slow release of tokens over time, could be days,weeks,months. Cliff unlock is a total unlock on a certain date.Cliff unlocks have far more impact on price as they potentially flood the market with new supply, the larger the unlock % to the current circulating supply, the larger the possible effect.
In 10 days $ALT (AltLayer) has a HUGE cliff unlock coming !👇
684 Million $ALT tokens will be unlocked, an increase of 42% of the current supply, this unlock is worth $86.7 Million
This is the breakdown 👇
I have underlined the token unlocks going to team and investors.
The $ amount of the July 25th unlock (at todays prices)
Team - $23.8 MillionInvestors - $39 MillionAdvisors - $10 Million
This is USD value, this is what they can sell their unlocked tokens for.
Investors and advisors are basically the same thing, so $49 million going to investors in this unlock.
In 10 days the early investors will be able to cash out this $49 Million
This is what VCs paid to invest in AltLayer.👇
Lets break this down.
The TOTAL raised for AltLayer funding was $21.6 Million.
Inicial seed VCs ($7.2M invested) paid $0.008 for their tokens( at current prices they are up 1400% ROI)
Strategic partners($14.4m Invested) paid $0.018 for their tokens (at current prices they are up 576% ROI)
Also please note this $14.4M strategic investment happen in Feb 2024, 5 months ago.
In the July 25th unlock alone the investors will unlock $49 million worth of tokens, this is just one of many future unlocks to come.
AltLayer only launched on Binance 6 months ago.
This is the first cliff unlock for investors, they are unlocking $49 million worth of value on their first unlock, total funding was $21 Million.
As the image above shows, the VCs will still recieve tokens via unlock until mid 2028, on their first unlock alone they have already more than 2x their funding investment.
$21.6 million funded($14 Million of which was 5 months ago) -> $49 million on first unlock.
For uninformed retail traders the current AltLayer prices seem low.
Why?
It is basically a PsyOP and little else.
We have slowly been manipulated to accept that the price tokens trade at in the days-weeks after launch is their fair value, or even that they are undervalued.
Because AltLayer was $0.60 or $0.50 only a couple months ago we now believe that the current price of 0.132 is an absolute gift.
The VCs on AltLayer will make $28 Million(or more) profit on their first unlock , after that they have 4 more years of profitable unlocks to come, this unlock returns their full investment and a large profit, we make it so easy for them.
95% of these projects have little real world usage, their value is solely what retail traders will pay for tokens and how much VCs can make.
Each of these projects have their own diehard fan base, for AltLayer it is probably the people who went all in at $0.50-$0.60 , now they have to tell themselves and others that it is the best project in the world.
Also note that Binance are one of the investors, not only on AltLayer but nearly all other tokens launched on the exchange, they get free/basically free % for launching the project on Binance, they make Billions off it.
Binance rarely, if ever, disclose their funding agreement with these projects, you can decide for yourself why (So i dont get banned)
There is no solution to this until most of Crypto stops supporting these projects.
The tokens from the upcoming Altlayer unlock will be dumped in the days-weeks after the unlock (Or before if they dont respect the vesting period)
The sale of these tokens give early investors a risk free and profitable investment, the next 4 years are all profit.
The problem is the VCs know that many in Crypto are becoming wiser to these VC funded, mostly garbage projects, and to the unlocks.
These tokens could be unlocked prior to the scheduled unlock, price could also be manipulated in the days before and after the unlock so the VCs and Team can get max value when they dump their tokens.
These VCs are already rich, they can afford to hold the tokens after unlock, just because they are unlocked doesnt mean they will be sold, it just makes them transferable to be sold.
With current economic/crypto price uncertainty i feel that the VCs will dump most of their tokens around this unlock.
I want to use this knowledge and find the best way i can make profitable trades around these unlock events.
Please note,
I am a crypto spot holder, over 90% of my crypto holdings are in spot, most in self custody, i use a very small % of my bankroll for trades like these.
If you dont have discipline, patience and you are just looking to 10x your money quickly then my trade ideas are not for you, i did basically 0 technical analysis for this trade idea, this is purely based on macro circumstances and supply/demand and greed(VC).
My plan,
The unlock is on the 25th July.
I will short AltLayer late next Sunday, the 21st July.
Weekends often push crypto prices up so this might give me the best entry.
I want to have my trade open days before the unlock to possibly profit off other traders "selling the news"
I also want to profit if tokens are unlocked and sold prior to the vesting period (It happens)
I will short whatever the price is late Sunday 21st July.
I will short at 2-3x leverage max.
Whatever happens to price in the coming days i dont care, i will have absolutely 0 risk of liquidation.
I plan on holding the trade until hours before the Feds interest rate decision on the 31st July, or if my take profit is hit.
I dont want to be at risk if the Fed gives a surprise interest rate cut, this would be Bullish for crypto, including AltLayer.
When i make trades like this i set a SL that will protect me from a huge price movement, a SL i am comfortable losing if i am wrong, i use low leverage and margin so my trades have the room to play out, im not looking to get rich quick.
I dont even look at my trades once i have opened them, if i do i second guess myself, i set price alerts at areas i want to start taking profit.
This is my plan unless something drastic happens between now and then.
I will update if anything changes.
This is a low leverage, low margin trade idea, if you high leverage you will most likely just be liquidated, these projects and their unlocks are easily manipulated if the project team/investors dont act in a moral way.
Please do your own research, if you know more info then share 🤝
I try my best to give the best advise and information but i cant follow each crypto project constantly, things change all the time in crypto.
If you enjoyed this post a like is always appreciated, i put a lot of time and love into these posts.🤙
Peace
#TheWolfThatWins #altsesaon #AltLayer #BinanceSquareFamily 👇
PINNED
Thank you so much
Your replies and solidarity and belief in me mean more than you could ever imagine.
My baby (dog) woke me up earlier because she is a drama queen and she wanted her morning carrot, my dogs love carrots 😂
I have the flu and im feeling emotionally down so i just wanted to stay in bed, when i got to my pc i saw 50 notifications on Binance and all messages of love and support.
Seriously i cant express how much it means to me, so from the bottom of my heart thank you all.
It feels like a lifetime ago but i only started posting on Binance 2 months ago, this is the first time i have ever posted anywhere, i really didnt expect that anyone would even care what i had to say.
For me posting has always been about educating and also meeting new friends, i have never wanted to use this as a means to get people to an outside group or to monetize my posts.
If binance bans me its their loss, i will still make the same posts elsewhere.
I earn nothing on Binance, i have NEVER once used ANY tags as part of their promotions, you will not find a single writetoearn/writetowin or any of the endless campaigns they try get people who post on square to promote.
I will continue to post here until they ban me.
I am not going to tone down my posts to suit them, if i have facts i will share them, i dont spread FUD, if i post i show proof, if that is bannable then ok.
Maybe i should go down the Binance rabbit hole like i did with USDT.🤔
I have attached a screenshot of my X account.
@TheWolfThatW1ns ( w 1 n s), others were taken 😫
I fully intend to continue posting only on square for now.
The X profile is only if i am silenced , i wont be active on X.
Once again thank you all so much for having my back, i value loyalty above all else in life.
I will stay loyal by trying to make crypto a better and safer place for all through my post.
Everything i post, wherever i post, will always be free and available for anyone who finds my posts helpful and informative.
Much love.
Peace
#TheWolfThatWins #VCenemyNumber1
Your replies and solidarity and belief in me mean more than you could ever imagine.
My baby (dog) woke me up earlier because she is a drama queen and she wanted her morning carrot, my dogs love carrots 😂
I have the flu and im feeling emotionally down so i just wanted to stay in bed, when i got to my pc i saw 50 notifications on Binance and all messages of love and support.
Seriously i cant express how much it means to me, so from the bottom of my heart thank you all.
It feels like a lifetime ago but i only started posting on Binance 2 months ago, this is the first time i have ever posted anywhere, i really didnt expect that anyone would even care what i had to say.
For me posting has always been about educating and also meeting new friends, i have never wanted to use this as a means to get people to an outside group or to monetize my posts.
If binance bans me its their loss, i will still make the same posts elsewhere.
I earn nothing on Binance, i have NEVER once used ANY tags as part of their promotions, you will not find a single writetoearn/writetowin or any of the endless campaigns they try get people who post on square to promote.
I will continue to post here until they ban me.
I am not going to tone down my posts to suit them, if i have facts i will share them, i dont spread FUD, if i post i show proof, if that is bannable then ok.
Maybe i should go down the Binance rabbit hole like i did with USDT.🤔
I have attached a screenshot of my X account.
@TheWolfThatW1ns ( w 1 n s), others were taken 😫
I fully intend to continue posting only on square for now.
The X profile is only if i am silenced , i wont be active on X.
Once again thank you all so much for having my back, i value loyalty above all else in life.
I will stay loyal by trying to make crypto a better and safer place for all through my post.
Everything i post, wherever i post, will always be free and available for anyone who finds my posts helpful and informative.
Much love.
Peace
#TheWolfThatWins #VCenemyNumber1
P I X E L
I have just shorted P I X E L at low leverage for the next 1-2 days.
Think its a decent trade with current sentiment and unlock in a few hours.
Short price 0.2218
Leverage 3x.
SL-0.231
If i close trade or take profit i will pin comment here, wont post more about it, its just to share, its not trade advise.
DYOR 🤙
Have a wonderful weekend.
Peace
#TheWolfThatWins
I have just shorted P I X E L at low leverage for the next 1-2 days.
Think its a decent trade with current sentiment and unlock in a few hours.
Short price 0.2218
Leverage 3x.
SL-0.231
If i close trade or take profit i will pin comment here, wont post more about it, its just to share, its not trade advise.
DYOR 🤙
Have a wonderful weekend.
Peace
#TheWolfThatWins
Wait 30 minutes.
In 30 minutes Unemployment data comes out.
Its what the market will look to for recession warning.
Predicted is 229k , anything 220k-235k is ok.
If the reading is fine i think this Bullish momentum can continue into next week, there is no major US economic data until the middle of next week.
If any data has the potential to turn this Bullish momentum around it would be a very high unemployment reading.
Also there is so much other noise in the crypto market currently so please just be sensible.
Peace.
#TheWolfThatWins #Market_Update #US_Job_Market_Slowdown
In 30 minutes Unemployment data comes out.
Its what the market will look to for recession warning.
Predicted is 229k , anything 220k-235k is ok.
If the reading is fine i think this Bullish momentum can continue into next week, there is no major US economic data until the middle of next week.
If any data has the potential to turn this Bullish momentum around it would be a very high unemployment reading.
Also there is so much other noise in the crypto market currently so please just be sensible.
Peace.
#TheWolfThatWins #Market_Update #US_Job_Market_Slowdown
$ETH
Important!
So you know what to expect next week.
It is a near certainty that the Ethereum ETFs will get final approval for trading next week.
If you hold Spot dont panic if price falls after approval.
When approvals happen Grayscale trust(ETHE) investors will likely sell their holdings.
*See attached images*
What is the Grayscale ETHE trust?
From the Grayscale site👇
"Grayscale Ethereum Trust is one of the first securities solely invested in and deriving value from the price of Ethereum ("ETH") that enables investors to gain exposure to ETH in the form of a security while avoiding the challenges of buying, storing, and safekeeping ETH, directly. "
Basically it is a way of investing in ETH through a proxy Trust.
The ETF approval now allows direct investment in ETH(commodity), not via a trust listed as a "security"
The ETHE trust has been open since 2019.
The Grayscale ETHE trust has $10 Billion Assets under management
Grayscale charge the highest fee(2.5%) for their ETF, other funds charge 0.19%-0.25% for reference.
Grayscale charge 10x more, i have no idea why.
Basically this means that investors will either convert their trust shares to the approved ETF fund and pay 2.5% fees or they will cash out profits and possibly invest with another ETF fund that charges 0.25%
When its 10s of millions that 2% difference in fees is huge, other funds offer exactly the same service
Most will likely cash out their shares.
This large amount of sell pressure could force ETH price down after the ETF launch.(Short term)
Also a LOT of leverage is being opened in anticipation of the approval, long and short, it will no doubt be very volatile.
Opening high margin trades expecting this to only be Bullish could be a huge mistake.
$10 Billion in possible sell pressure will have a HUGE impact on price if it is sold in the days after, especially when there is Billions of leveraged liquidity within 10% of the ETH price.
The sell pressure will be temporary, 5-7 days.
Trade Safely
Peace
#ETHETFsApproved #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥 #ETHETFsapproval #TheWolfThatWins
Important!
So you know what to expect next week.
It is a near certainty that the Ethereum ETFs will get final approval for trading next week.
If you hold Spot dont panic if price falls after approval.
When approvals happen Grayscale trust(ETHE) investors will likely sell their holdings.
*See attached images*
What is the Grayscale ETHE trust?
From the Grayscale site👇
"Grayscale Ethereum Trust is one of the first securities solely invested in and deriving value from the price of Ethereum ("ETH") that enables investors to gain exposure to ETH in the form of a security while avoiding the challenges of buying, storing, and safekeeping ETH, directly. "
Basically it is a way of investing in ETH through a proxy Trust.
The ETF approval now allows direct investment in ETH(commodity), not via a trust listed as a "security"
The ETHE trust has been open since 2019.
The Grayscale ETHE trust has $10 Billion Assets under management
Grayscale charge the highest fee(2.5%) for their ETF, other funds charge 0.19%-0.25% for reference.
Grayscale charge 10x more, i have no idea why.
Basically this means that investors will either convert their trust shares to the approved ETF fund and pay 2.5% fees or they will cash out profits and possibly invest with another ETF fund that charges 0.25%
When its 10s of millions that 2% difference in fees is huge, other funds offer exactly the same service
Most will likely cash out their shares.
This large amount of sell pressure could force ETH price down after the ETF launch.(Short term)
Also a LOT of leverage is being opened in anticipation of the approval, long and short, it will no doubt be very volatile.
Opening high margin trades expecting this to only be Bullish could be a huge mistake.
$10 Billion in possible sell pressure will have a HUGE impact on price if it is sold in the days after, especially when there is Billions of leveraged liquidity within 10% of the ETH price.
The sell pressure will be temporary, 5-7 days.
Trade Safely
Peace
#ETHETFsApproved #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥 #ETHETFsapproval #TheWolfThatWins
Back to Business.
I know this is a Crypto forum and my focus has been on other markets, i dont want to confuse people who dont understand how it all effects crypto but it does.
Crypto like anything needs fiat money to start with, it needs large amounts of money going into "risk on" speculation.
Please see imagine attached.(Daily candles)
As this imagine(right) shows the DXY(dollar strength) is dropping rapidly, yesterday it broke through a previous daily support level.
In the same time Gold has been making gains, this shows a lot of money that is moving out of the Dollar is going into "risk off" Gold.
This shows large investors are still seeing risks.
Stocks, bonds, crypto, all potentially offer more short term profits than Gold, Gold does not earn interest, it is an investment in security, a hedge against volatilty of fiat, stocks, crypto and so on.
If large investors are chosing gold it is for a reason.
Later today we have Unemployment data - July 18th 12:30pm UTC+0
Many in the Fed are hinting at rate cuts, as i have said for some time unemployment will be key, it will be the place that shows if a "soft landing" or recession is likely.
The markets will all be watching this number.
I said in a post over a week ago that Trump could possibly try influence the Interest rate decision, 1 week later it was all over the news, they are playing a political game and everyone, including Powell knows that Trump is a near certainty for President.
I highly doubt a July cut will happen, its priced at 4.7%, a September cut is 98% with a small % of that to be a 50bps cut.
How much Trump influences the decision i dont know.
If the unemployment numbers come out as predicted or slightly better (under 229k) then i see Crypto rallying for a while, possibly until the 27th July when Trump speaks at the BTC conference.
Mt.Gox payments are still looming so dont be at high liquidation risk.
At this point everything is being manipulated for politics, anything can happen, be bullish in a sensible way, spot or low margin and take profits.
Peace
#BTC☀ #ETHETFsApproved
I know this is a Crypto forum and my focus has been on other markets, i dont want to confuse people who dont understand how it all effects crypto but it does.
Crypto like anything needs fiat money to start with, it needs large amounts of money going into "risk on" speculation.
Please see imagine attached.(Daily candles)
As this imagine(right) shows the DXY(dollar strength) is dropping rapidly, yesterday it broke through a previous daily support level.
In the same time Gold has been making gains, this shows a lot of money that is moving out of the Dollar is going into "risk off" Gold.
This shows large investors are still seeing risks.
Stocks, bonds, crypto, all potentially offer more short term profits than Gold, Gold does not earn interest, it is an investment in security, a hedge against volatilty of fiat, stocks, crypto and so on.
If large investors are chosing gold it is for a reason.
Later today we have Unemployment data - July 18th 12:30pm UTC+0
Many in the Fed are hinting at rate cuts, as i have said for some time unemployment will be key, it will be the place that shows if a "soft landing" or recession is likely.
The markets will all be watching this number.
I said in a post over a week ago that Trump could possibly try influence the Interest rate decision, 1 week later it was all over the news, they are playing a political game and everyone, including Powell knows that Trump is a near certainty for President.
I highly doubt a July cut will happen, its priced at 4.7%, a September cut is 98% with a small % of that to be a 50bps cut.
How much Trump influences the decision i dont know.
If the unemployment numbers come out as predicted or slightly better (under 229k) then i see Crypto rallying for a while, possibly until the 27th July when Trump speaks at the BTC conference.
Mt.Gox payments are still looming so dont be at high liquidation risk.
At this point everything is being manipulated for politics, anything can happen, be bullish in a sensible way, spot or low margin and take profits.
Peace
#BTC☀ #ETHETFsApproved
Cool so Binance want to silence me.
Please see attached.
I have never spammed, promoted, solicited anything on square in my life, I have acted in a 100% moral way throughout.
This is obviously their way of telling me to stop posting about USDT, VC trash projects or including that they(Binance)are part of these projects.
The only community guideline I might have broken is about hurting the Binance brand, if speaking the truth hurts their brand then they should be working more on themselves and how to fix the problems I show in my posts, problems I show with proof !
I have done my best to help the crypto community through square, not just on my threads but people with questions on square in general.
I challenge anyone at Binance who might monitor my posts or square in general to point out 1 instance where I have acted in any way to deserve this warning.
Not only this but in recent days I have people wanting my personal contact info to talk to me “urgently” , these are people who I have never spoken to before on square.
Obviously the truth is not welcome here.
Maybe I’m digging too deep for their liking.
Anyways if one day I’m gone you know why.
✌️
#TheWolfThatWins #BinanceTurns7 #BinanceTournament #BinanceSquareFamily
Please see attached.
I have never spammed, promoted, solicited anything on square in my life, I have acted in a 100% moral way throughout.
This is obviously their way of telling me to stop posting about USDT, VC trash projects or including that they(Binance)are part of these projects.
The only community guideline I might have broken is about hurting the Binance brand, if speaking the truth hurts their brand then they should be working more on themselves and how to fix the problems I show in my posts, problems I show with proof !
I have done my best to help the crypto community through square, not just on my threads but people with questions on square in general.
I challenge anyone at Binance who might monitor my posts or square in general to point out 1 instance where I have acted in any way to deserve this warning.
Not only this but in recent days I have people wanting my personal contact info to talk to me “urgently” , these are people who I have never spoken to before on square.
Obviously the truth is not welcome here.
Maybe I’m digging too deep for their liking.
Anyways if one day I’m gone you know why.
✌️
#TheWolfThatWins #BinanceTurns7 #BinanceTournament #BinanceSquareFamily
For anyone who thinks I just make up FUD garbage or conspiracy theories.
If you haven’t already then read my article attached that I posted a week ago(A week before Trump warned Powell not to Cut), it’s a long post, if u just want to see how i saw this coming then skip to the “conspiracy theory” at the end ✌️
#TheWolfThatWins #TrumpCrypto #FedDecision #Market_Update
If you haven’t already then read my article attached that I posted a week ago(A week before Trump warned Powell not to Cut), it’s a long post, if u just want to see how i saw this coming then skip to the “conspiracy theory” at the end ✌️
#TheWolfThatWins #TrumpCrypto #FedDecision #Market_Update
LIVEDontBLiquidity
--
Is there something more behind the Feds decisions? (+CPI data tomorrow)
For people who are bored of reading about this i am sorry, for now it is the most impactful decision effecting the crypto price so that is where most of my focus is.
Some things you might not know.
Trump nominated Powell to serve as Fed Chair in 2017.Biden re-nominated Powell for a second term in 2021.Powell is a republican.The president does not have the power to fire the FED Chair.(Trump says he could)Powells current term as Fed chair ends in May 2026.The US government have no say or (direct) influence in the interest rates set by the FOMC.(Trump wants to change that)Trump has publicly stated he would not nominate Powell again if he was re-elected.For months many democratic leaders have been urging Powell to lower rates, including open letters to Powell and the Fed.👇
Since nominating Powell as the Fed chair, Trump, for the most part has had little praise for him, Trump had even spoken of firing Powell when he was president but this never happened, in the history of the FED this has never happened, there is no precedent or laws applicable to firing an acting FED chair.
Insiders close to Trump have said if re-elected Trump wants to change laws and give the President power over the central banks policy, this would be met with worldwide outrage as it has the potential to seriously impact the worldwide economy.
The Trump game
Love him or hate him i think few would deny Trump knows how to influence people and get what he wants.
If we rewind back to February of this year, Trump was making public accusation that Powell and other Fed members were politically corrupt and they would lower interest rates to help the cause of the democratic party in an election year.
High interest rates = higher cost of borrowing money = more financial pressure on the vast majority of the American people. (Lower rates=happier voting population, less likely to want change)
But wait interest rate cuts never happened, Trump is an idiot?
Trump is either an idiot or he made public accusations of corruption(5 months ago) to lead to the exact point we find ourselves in today.
If the Fed had cut rates in the months following these accusations then Trumps claims are justified and the Fed are corrupt.(Thats what Trump and his supporters would say)
If the Fed dont cut rates then Trump knew the economy would probably reach the point it is currently at, only months before election.
A vast number of the voting population are suffering because of the Feds restrictive policy, Trumps promises of lowering rates, lowering taxes and freeing up money for the American people must be sounding better and better these days, even if you are a democrat.
Back to the FED
If Powell and the Fed are not swayed by political agenda they will likely cut rates by 25bps in September and possibly again in november(If future readings support this)
I personally think if Powell and the fed were backing the democrats then a July cut would seem likely (there is no cut in August) a July cut is priced at 4.7% currently on CME Fedwatch, it is extremely unlikely and if it did happen it would be the end of Powell if Trump wins the election.
The conspiracy angle
The Fed is not immune to political agenda 👇
Lets hypothetically imagine Trump and Powell have an agenda
Trump has mostly said he wants Powell out so please take this as pure speculation, i do know that Trump will say/do almost anything to suit his agenda, if that means keeping Powell around for 4 more years so be it.
How does Powell keep his job (assuming Trump wins) while also trying to rescue a failing US economy?
Powell keeps rates higher for JulyPowell keeps rates higher for September(If the labour market is not on the brink of collapse)Powell lowers rates by 50bps(not 25) in November and again in December to shock the flatlining economy back to life.Trump would enter office with his campaign promises already on the road to completion (Powell would likely stay as Fed chair for 4 more years)
This is all absolute speculation and it relies heavily on how the labour market holds up in the coming months.
Tomorrow we will have HUGE impact CPI data and unemployment.
Firstly for anyone who gets lost with the CPI, Core CPI, Pce , Core Pce.
Core readings are without food and energy.
PCE and CPI are determined by basically the same things, the weight of each reading that makes up for the CPI or PCE numbers is calculated slightly differently.
Other key differences,
CPI is only for urban areas and does not include expenses paid for on behalf of consumers like Medicare or insurance paid by employers.Pce includes all American household spending, including Rural areas and includes spending made on behalf of consumers(Medicare,Insurance paid by employer), it also includes spending of non-profits.
The Feds prefered gauge of inflation is PCE.
As for tomorrow, most analysts are predicting readings mostly as forecast , i think CPI m/m might be the only shock due to high energy costs.
If the numbers come out higher across the board it will be bad for crypto, this is unlikely.
If Core CPI m/m and CPI y/y come out lower it will be good for Crypto, even if the monthly CPI m/m reading comes out a little hot due to energy costs.
If the readings come out as expected it would be slightly Bullish for Crypto.(If unemployment doesnt give a shock)
For me Unemployment is key
The FED can delay or downplay conditions for political reasons but if the unemployment numbers keep going up or get substantially worse then it cant be ignored, they cant kick the can down the road any longer, it will lead to emergency policy changes(lowering rates). Trump would still win if this happened 🤔
Tomorrow will have high volatility during these readings, like i have said in the past week, there is a LOT of pent up uncertainty waiting to hit the markets, Powell didnt unleash that storm but it is there and ready to cause havoc.
High impact readings like these could be the catalyst to unleash the storm.
I am mentally tired so if i made any spelling mistakes or i sound nonsensical then please forgive me🤪
Please trade safely tomorrow or take the day off.
Peace
#TheWolfThatWins #US_Job_Market_Slowdown #Market_Update #BinanceTournament
Some things you might not know.
Trump nominated Powell to serve as Fed Chair in 2017.Biden re-nominated Powell for a second term in 2021.Powell is a republican.The president does not have the power to fire the FED Chair.(Trump says he could)Powells current term as Fed chair ends in May 2026.The US government have no say or (direct) influence in the interest rates set by the FOMC.(Trump wants to change that)Trump has publicly stated he would not nominate Powell again if he was re-elected.For months many democratic leaders have been urging Powell to lower rates, including open letters to Powell and the Fed.👇
Since nominating Powell as the Fed chair, Trump, for the most part has had little praise for him, Trump had even spoken of firing Powell when he was president but this never happened, in the history of the FED this has never happened, there is no precedent or laws applicable to firing an acting FED chair.
Insiders close to Trump have said if re-elected Trump wants to change laws and give the President power over the central banks policy, this would be met with worldwide outrage as it has the potential to seriously impact the worldwide economy.
The Trump game
Love him or hate him i think few would deny Trump knows how to influence people and get what he wants.
If we rewind back to February of this year, Trump was making public accusation that Powell and other Fed members were politically corrupt and they would lower interest rates to help the cause of the democratic party in an election year.
High interest rates = higher cost of borrowing money = more financial pressure on the vast majority of the American people. (Lower rates=happier voting population, less likely to want change)
But wait interest rate cuts never happened, Trump is an idiot?
Trump is either an idiot or he made public accusations of corruption(5 months ago) to lead to the exact point we find ourselves in today.
If the Fed had cut rates in the months following these accusations then Trumps claims are justified and the Fed are corrupt.(Thats what Trump and his supporters would say)
If the Fed dont cut rates then Trump knew the economy would probably reach the point it is currently at, only months before election.
A vast number of the voting population are suffering because of the Feds restrictive policy, Trumps promises of lowering rates, lowering taxes and freeing up money for the American people must be sounding better and better these days, even if you are a democrat.
Back to the FED
If Powell and the Fed are not swayed by political agenda they will likely cut rates by 25bps in September and possibly again in november(If future readings support this)
I personally think if Powell and the fed were backing the democrats then a July cut would seem likely (there is no cut in August) a July cut is priced at 4.7% currently on CME Fedwatch, it is extremely unlikely and if it did happen it would be the end of Powell if Trump wins the election.
The conspiracy angle
The Fed is not immune to political agenda 👇
Lets hypothetically imagine Trump and Powell have an agenda
Trump has mostly said he wants Powell out so please take this as pure speculation, i do know that Trump will say/do almost anything to suit his agenda, if that means keeping Powell around for 4 more years so be it.
How does Powell keep his job (assuming Trump wins) while also trying to rescue a failing US economy?
Powell keeps rates higher for JulyPowell keeps rates higher for September(If the labour market is not on the brink of collapse)Powell lowers rates by 50bps(not 25) in November and again in December to shock the flatlining economy back to life.Trump would enter office with his campaign promises already on the road to completion (Powell would likely stay as Fed chair for 4 more years)
This is all absolute speculation and it relies heavily on how the labour market holds up in the coming months.
Tomorrow we will have HUGE impact CPI data and unemployment.
Firstly for anyone who gets lost with the CPI, Core CPI, Pce , Core Pce.
Core readings are without food and energy.
PCE and CPI are determined by basically the same things, the weight of each reading that makes up for the CPI or PCE numbers is calculated slightly differently.
Other key differences,
CPI is only for urban areas and does not include expenses paid for on behalf of consumers like Medicare or insurance paid by employers.Pce includes all American household spending, including Rural areas and includes spending made on behalf of consumers(Medicare,Insurance paid by employer), it also includes spending of non-profits.
The Feds prefered gauge of inflation is PCE.
As for tomorrow, most analysts are predicting readings mostly as forecast , i think CPI m/m might be the only shock due to high energy costs.
If the numbers come out higher across the board it will be bad for crypto, this is unlikely.
If Core CPI m/m and CPI y/y come out lower it will be good for Crypto, even if the monthly CPI m/m reading comes out a little hot due to energy costs.
If the readings come out as expected it would be slightly Bullish for Crypto.(If unemployment doesnt give a shock)
For me Unemployment is key
The FED can delay or downplay conditions for political reasons but if the unemployment numbers keep going up or get substantially worse then it cant be ignored, they cant kick the can down the road any longer, it will lead to emergency policy changes(lowering rates). Trump would still win if this happened 🤔
Tomorrow will have high volatility during these readings, like i have said in the past week, there is a LOT of pent up uncertainty waiting to hit the markets, Powell didnt unleash that storm but it is there and ready to cause havoc.
High impact readings like these could be the catalyst to unleash the storm.
I am mentally tired so if i made any spelling mistakes or i sound nonsensical then please forgive me🤪
Please trade safely tomorrow or take the day off.
Peace
#TheWolfThatWins #US_Job_Market_Slowdown #Market_Update #BinanceTournament
Update for the week ahead.
This Bullish momentum could last for the week.
On thursday all eyes will be on the Unemployment numbers.
Earlier today/yesterday depending where you are in the world, the retail sales data showed the US economy is showing resilience, the readings were higher but served to lower recession worries.
In the months prior we have looked to readings for interest rate cut confirmation, now the market is looking for the same confirmation but also that the slowdown in inflation has not caused a recession.
The retail sales gave a temporary sigh of relief for the recession worries (for now)
Later this Week Trump will speak at a BTC conference in Nashville, this can only be bullish for BTC and crypto, i highly doubt he will say anything concrete on his policy on crypto if elected, i am sure he will make many claims and say many pro crypto things.
Please see attached imagine.(Left)
This imagine shows that this Bullish momentum is heavily built on leverage, while i cant see anything major happening that would create rapid sell pressure anything can happen.
Mt.Gox payments are still being made, if a large sale of BTC pushes price down to this leveraged liquidity it could create a rapid long squeeze.
I have been saying for months that we would likely see a last Euphoric phase before a reality check and this could be it.
Profit off it while it lasts but please dont think this will go on indefinitely.
If you make profitable trades then have SL postions that are in profit, also dont try 50x your money in the next few days, it always ends in tears.
If Fomo pushes the Crypto market cap to $2.5-$2.6T i will be out, i will hold only BTC+ETH i hold at lower prices, nothing else.
This includes all projects in my portfolio breakdown(also IQ/Jasmy) and any other holdings i have purchased in the last few months.
Everything i have posted/recommened for Spot purchase in the last 2 months is in profit.
If you followed my spot advise you are in profit, in some cases a LOT of profit.
Peace.
#TheWolfThatWins #BTC☀ #MtGoxJulyRepayments #ETHETFsApproved
This Bullish momentum could last for the week.
On thursday all eyes will be on the Unemployment numbers.
Earlier today/yesterday depending where you are in the world, the retail sales data showed the US economy is showing resilience, the readings were higher but served to lower recession worries.
In the months prior we have looked to readings for interest rate cut confirmation, now the market is looking for the same confirmation but also that the slowdown in inflation has not caused a recession.
The retail sales gave a temporary sigh of relief for the recession worries (for now)
Later this Week Trump will speak at a BTC conference in Nashville, this can only be bullish for BTC and crypto, i highly doubt he will say anything concrete on his policy on crypto if elected, i am sure he will make many claims and say many pro crypto things.
Please see attached imagine.(Left)
This imagine shows that this Bullish momentum is heavily built on leverage, while i cant see anything major happening that would create rapid sell pressure anything can happen.
Mt.Gox payments are still being made, if a large sale of BTC pushes price down to this leveraged liquidity it could create a rapid long squeeze.
I have been saying for months that we would likely see a last Euphoric phase before a reality check and this could be it.
Profit off it while it lasts but please dont think this will go on indefinitely.
If you make profitable trades then have SL postions that are in profit, also dont try 50x your money in the next few days, it always ends in tears.
If Fomo pushes the Crypto market cap to $2.5-$2.6T i will be out, i will hold only BTC+ETH i hold at lower prices, nothing else.
This includes all projects in my portfolio breakdown(also IQ/Jasmy) and any other holdings i have purchased in the last few months.
Everything i have posted/recommened for Spot purchase in the last 2 months is in profit.
If you followed my spot advise you are in profit, in some cases a LOT of profit.
Peace.
#TheWolfThatWins #BTC☀ #MtGoxJulyRepayments #ETHETFsApproved
The more i research the more i want to get out.
Sorry this will be a bit of a rant and nothing more.
Please read attached articles first.
Ask yourself why,🤔
Why are the Ethereum ETFs suddenly going to be approved for trading in the next week?
Does Biden need Gensler to give him an urgent "Pro crypto" victory after the assassination attemp on Trump?
Trump speaking at BTC conference next weekend, Biden tells Gensler to approve Ethereum ETF?
Why did USDT print $1 Billion new tokens yesterday?
USDT are a law onto themselves, they say sometimes they burn redeemed tokens, sometimes they hold them in the treasury reserves.
We allow this sh1t, very few question this.
So USDT dont burn all tokens when people redeem them, they hold them in the "treasury reserve" so why the need to mint $1 Billion more?
*Burning means sending them(tokens) to a wallet address that nobody has access to, a dead wallet, they are gone,out of circulation, the treasury reserves are wallets that USDT can access if they need more tokens*
Was there any press release from USDT, was there any proof they have purchased reserves to cover this 1-1?
Is this now play money? Has crypto become so sick and manipulated that companies can just print $1 Billion and nobody cares?
If the largest stable coin can just mint $1 Billion like its nothing, just imagine what is happening in "smaller" $100 million crypto projects.
I am really starting to hate this sh1t, we are being played for fools.
Politicians, VCs and funds are just using us in their larger game.
Crypto traders are going to fomo in now and in 1-2 weeks it will be all tears again, this will go on until the real crash actually comes.
Fear and greed has gone from 25-65 in 2 days, why?
Did anything major happen for crypto in the last 2 days, Trump was already BIG favorite, Ethereum ETFs were already going to be approved, at some point.
They control the narrative, this is becoming manipulated on a sickening level.
Stop being a sheep.
Trade safely, its rigged against you.
Peace.
#ETHETFsApproved #TheWolfThatWins #meme_coin #altsesaon
Sorry this will be a bit of a rant and nothing more.
Please read attached articles first.
Ask yourself why,🤔
Why are the Ethereum ETFs suddenly going to be approved for trading in the next week?
Does Biden need Gensler to give him an urgent "Pro crypto" victory after the assassination attemp on Trump?
Trump speaking at BTC conference next weekend, Biden tells Gensler to approve Ethereum ETF?
Why did USDT print $1 Billion new tokens yesterday?
USDT are a law onto themselves, they say sometimes they burn redeemed tokens, sometimes they hold them in the treasury reserves.
We allow this sh1t, very few question this.
So USDT dont burn all tokens when people redeem them, they hold them in the "treasury reserve" so why the need to mint $1 Billion more?
*Burning means sending them(tokens) to a wallet address that nobody has access to, a dead wallet, they are gone,out of circulation, the treasury reserves are wallets that USDT can access if they need more tokens*
Was there any press release from USDT, was there any proof they have purchased reserves to cover this 1-1?
Is this now play money? Has crypto become so sick and manipulated that companies can just print $1 Billion and nobody cares?
If the largest stable coin can just mint $1 Billion like its nothing, just imagine what is happening in "smaller" $100 million crypto projects.
I am really starting to hate this sh1t, we are being played for fools.
Politicians, VCs and funds are just using us in their larger game.
Crypto traders are going to fomo in now and in 1-2 weeks it will be all tears again, this will go on until the real crash actually comes.
Fear and greed has gone from 25-65 in 2 days, why?
Did anything major happen for crypto in the last 2 days, Trump was already BIG favorite, Ethereum ETFs were already going to be approved, at some point.
They control the narrative, this is becoming manipulated on a sickening level.
Stop being a sheep.
Trade safely, its rigged against you.
Peace.
#ETHETFsApproved #TheWolfThatWins #meme_coin #altsesaon
Proceed with caution from here.
A lot of this Bullish price action is fomo and leverage.
These positions are not solid and will take profits.
I am not being bearish or spreading FUD i am just looking at the wider market conditions.
I am always Macro Bullish
On July 4th i posted buy BTC at 55.5k and ETH at $3.060 , i purchased more spot on both at these prices.
Spot is to boring for most but i am up 10-15% on both of these in just over a week, i hold a lot of Spot on both and keep buying dips.
Short term i am not so certain of this Bullish Trend.
This short term bullish trend is Fomo around,
- the Trump assassination attemp
- Tump selecting pro crypto J.D Vance as his vice president(if elected)
-news China might unban BTC( this seems unlikely with the Chinese economic struggles).
-Ethereum ETF funds being open to trade as early as next week.
*I have posted before about why the Ethereum ETFs wont have the same effect as BTC and why it could lead to massive short term sell pressure for ETH*
A lot of bullish things led to this short term price action but they will quickly reverse with any bad news.
A short run built on Fomo leverage is not secure.
Crypto still relies on large "risk on" investment.
The wider markets have not confirmed this Bullish trend, the US economic concerns are still key.
The chance of a July interest rate cut has gone up slightly to 8% but overall the S&P500, Gold , Nasdaq, DXY are all still pointing to an economy that has no direction and a recession concern is real.
None of these market have reacted to the "Trump effect" like Crypto has, this is why i say proceed with caution.
I have included charts showing how S&P 500, Gold, DXY started this week(the blue vertical line) as you can see there is no clear direction.
This crypto price action is in a vacuum so we must not get carried away and forget other concerning factors.
Crypto price can be manipulated short term, see USDT attached article.🤔
I would not high leverage long at current prices.
Trade safely
Peace.
#TheWolfThatWins #ETHETFsApproved #BTC☀
A lot of this Bullish price action is fomo and leverage.
These positions are not solid and will take profits.
I am not being bearish or spreading FUD i am just looking at the wider market conditions.
I am always Macro Bullish
On July 4th i posted buy BTC at 55.5k and ETH at $3.060 , i purchased more spot on both at these prices.
Spot is to boring for most but i am up 10-15% on both of these in just over a week, i hold a lot of Spot on both and keep buying dips.
Short term i am not so certain of this Bullish Trend.
This short term bullish trend is Fomo around,
- the Trump assassination attemp
- Tump selecting pro crypto J.D Vance as his vice president(if elected)
-news China might unban BTC( this seems unlikely with the Chinese economic struggles).
-Ethereum ETF funds being open to trade as early as next week.
*I have posted before about why the Ethereum ETFs wont have the same effect as BTC and why it could lead to massive short term sell pressure for ETH*
A lot of bullish things led to this short term price action but they will quickly reverse with any bad news.
A short run built on Fomo leverage is not secure.
Crypto still relies on large "risk on" investment.
The wider markets have not confirmed this Bullish trend, the US economic concerns are still key.
The chance of a July interest rate cut has gone up slightly to 8% but overall the S&P500, Gold , Nasdaq, DXY are all still pointing to an economy that has no direction and a recession concern is real.
None of these market have reacted to the "Trump effect" like Crypto has, this is why i say proceed with caution.
I have included charts showing how S&P 500, Gold, DXY started this week(the blue vertical line) as you can see there is no clear direction.
This crypto price action is in a vacuum so we must not get carried away and forget other concerning factors.
Crypto price can be manipulated short term, see USDT attached article.🤔
I would not high leverage long at current prices.
Trade safely
Peace.
#TheWolfThatWins #ETHETFsApproved #BTC☀
All roads lead to the 31st July
31st July is the FOMC statement and Feds fund rate decision.(Interest rate)
Powell speaks tomorrow,he will just echo last week.
In the next 2 weeks we have a lot of high impact US data.
Usually all this data would be pro or anti crypto, now that is not so easy to decide.
As an example we have Core retail/retail sales, Unemployment this week, in the last 6 months we wanted retail sales to drop and unemployement to go higher, this shows the economy cooling.
Now these readings are basically lose/lose for crypto, they will either show the economy is not slowing (higher retail sales, lower unemployment), this could mean higher for longer, or they show the opposite, this could then mean the economy is about to go into recession, large holders wont rush to crypto if an economic recession/crash looms.
So basically now we just need them to come out as expected.
There is so much uncertaintly at the moment, yesterday proved that when Crypto rallied due to an assassination attemp on Trump, maybe it was the catalyst the market was waiting for, the coming days will show if it lasts.
I dont think Trump will be pro crypto after he is elected, i highly doubt he will make any serious pro crypto policy changes, Trump is pro USD.
Trump is pro spending, he wants to lower interest rates, lower taxes, free up spending money, that leads to more free money that can go into crypto.
Crypto people love to compare this bull run with the run in 2020-2021, you see all the charts showing how now compares to then.
What they dont say is that back then the Crypto Bullrun was funded by hundreds of Billions of government fiscal stimulus worlwide due to Covid, interest rates were 0%, also how the millenial and Gen Z population were stuck at home and trying to use that stimulus for other forms of income -> Crypto speculation
For now, like i have said in the last 2 weeks, my focus is more on the Gold, S&P500, DXY and bond markets.
These will give me a far greater indication to market sentiment.
peace
#TheWolfThatWins #Market_Update
31st July is the FOMC statement and Feds fund rate decision.(Interest rate)
Powell speaks tomorrow,he will just echo last week.
In the next 2 weeks we have a lot of high impact US data.
Usually all this data would be pro or anti crypto, now that is not so easy to decide.
As an example we have Core retail/retail sales, Unemployment this week, in the last 6 months we wanted retail sales to drop and unemployement to go higher, this shows the economy cooling.
Now these readings are basically lose/lose for crypto, they will either show the economy is not slowing (higher retail sales, lower unemployment), this could mean higher for longer, or they show the opposite, this could then mean the economy is about to go into recession, large holders wont rush to crypto if an economic recession/crash looms.
So basically now we just need them to come out as expected.
There is so much uncertaintly at the moment, yesterday proved that when Crypto rallied due to an assassination attemp on Trump, maybe it was the catalyst the market was waiting for, the coming days will show if it lasts.
I dont think Trump will be pro crypto after he is elected, i highly doubt he will make any serious pro crypto policy changes, Trump is pro USD.
Trump is pro spending, he wants to lower interest rates, lower taxes, free up spending money, that leads to more free money that can go into crypto.
Crypto people love to compare this bull run with the run in 2020-2021, you see all the charts showing how now compares to then.
What they dont say is that back then the Crypto Bullrun was funded by hundreds of Billions of government fiscal stimulus worlwide due to Covid, interest rates were 0%, also how the millenial and Gen Z population were stuck at home and trying to use that stimulus for other forms of income -> Crypto speculation
For now, like i have said in the last 2 weeks, my focus is more on the Gold, S&P500, DXY and bond markets.
These will give me a far greater indication to market sentiment.
peace
#TheWolfThatWins #Market_Update
XAI
This post is an update to my short post.
My short price was 0.356
Current price 0.3106
My SL(in profit) is 0.3223.
This SL is above the previous 4H candle wick and also where price broke through a zone of previous resistance/support, if this SL is hit it could signal a trend reversal.
I will keep moving my SL(take profit) if price moves lower, my SL still has room to survive temporary price movements to the upside.
Im looking at 0.27-0.28 as a final exit.
I would hold for lower but as shown in my previous post, some of the tokens were re-locked for 6 months so it looks like they(XAI Team) are trying to keep the price fairly stable.
Anyone who followed the trade idea is in profit, i would advise setting your SL at 0.3223 also, then you have a risk free, profitable trade and we can still profit from more downside in the coming days.
What you do now is up to you.
You probably used higher leverage than i did so your ROI should be good.
For me the trade idea has played out and i wont post more about it.
Peace
#TheWolfThatWins #XAIUSDT #XAI/USDT
This post is an update to my short post.
My short price was 0.356
Current price 0.3106
My SL(in profit) is 0.3223.
This SL is above the previous 4H candle wick and also where price broke through a zone of previous resistance/support, if this SL is hit it could signal a trend reversal.
I will keep moving my SL(take profit) if price moves lower, my SL still has room to survive temporary price movements to the upside.
Im looking at 0.27-0.28 as a final exit.
I would hold for lower but as shown in my previous post, some of the tokens were re-locked for 6 months so it looks like they(XAI Team) are trying to keep the price fairly stable.
Anyone who followed the trade idea is in profit, i would advise setting your SL at 0.3223 also, then you have a risk free, profitable trade and we can still profit from more downside in the coming days.
What you do now is up to you.
You probably used higher leverage than i did so your ROI should be good.
For me the trade idea has played out and i wont post more about it.
Peace
#TheWolfThatWins #XAIUSDT #XAI/USDT
Trading idea for the next 7 days.
P I X E L ( Have to space it out or binance tag it)
This is only for my followers i dont want to tag this.
I think shorting P I X E L now offers a good LOW LEVERAGE trade for the next 7 days.
I dont see anything major next week that will drastically influence crypto price to the upside.
The only Black swan i see is E T H ETF final approval.
P i x e l has a fairly large cliff unlock coming in under 7 days.
Please see attached images to show how price reacted in the days leading up to the last unlock (19th June 2024)
The coming unlock is exactly the same size and with the same allocations.
Prices have fallen a lot on crypto but projects like P I X E L , in my opinion, are fomo projects, i dont see high volume fomo returning in the next week.
My position.
Short - 0.187
Leverage 3x
SL 0.205
* You might find entries at 0.19-0.20 over the weekend with lower volume*
*Set a SL you are comfortable with, my SL is wide because my leverage and margin is SUPER low*
If price falls you can take profit where you want, im looking for 0.16 as a first target.
Please dont high leverage this, it is a shitcoin and this is just a trade idea, i dont have HIGH confidence in any short term trades in crypto at the moment.
Please i must be clear, this is low leverage, 1 week trade, and i am using a very small % of my funds allocated to this.
I dont really like to share my trade ideas because it honestly gives me anxiety, at the same time i want to help retail traders where i can with more than just macro news, just please trade responsibly.
Please dont treat this like a sure thing, crypto is very volatile at the moment, also i dont have deep insight into this project.
Update re XAI post,
I updated my XAI post via pinned comment, it has fallen by 9% from my entry price i posted, if you followed you are in profit, i have SL in profit and am looking for 0.3-0.26 as exit, how you trade it from here is up to you, if you are sensible you should have an only profit position from here🤙
Have a wonderful weekend.
Peace.
#TheWolfThatWins
P I X E L ( Have to space it out or binance tag it)
This is only for my followers i dont want to tag this.
I think shorting P I X E L now offers a good LOW LEVERAGE trade for the next 7 days.
I dont see anything major next week that will drastically influence crypto price to the upside.
The only Black swan i see is E T H ETF final approval.
P i x e l has a fairly large cliff unlock coming in under 7 days.
Please see attached images to show how price reacted in the days leading up to the last unlock (19th June 2024)
The coming unlock is exactly the same size and with the same allocations.
Prices have fallen a lot on crypto but projects like P I X E L , in my opinion, are fomo projects, i dont see high volume fomo returning in the next week.
My position.
Short - 0.187
Leverage 3x
SL 0.205
* You might find entries at 0.19-0.20 over the weekend with lower volume*
*Set a SL you are comfortable with, my SL is wide because my leverage and margin is SUPER low*
If price falls you can take profit where you want, im looking for 0.16 as a first target.
Please dont high leverage this, it is a shitcoin and this is just a trade idea, i dont have HIGH confidence in any short term trades in crypto at the moment.
Please i must be clear, this is low leverage, 1 week trade, and i am using a very small % of my funds allocated to this.
I dont really like to share my trade ideas because it honestly gives me anxiety, at the same time i want to help retail traders where i can with more than just macro news, just please trade responsibly.
Please dont treat this like a sure thing, crypto is very volatile at the moment, also i dont have deep insight into this project.
Update re XAI post,
I updated my XAI post via pinned comment, it has fallen by 9% from my entry price i posted, if you followed you are in profit, i have SL in profit and am looking for 0.3-0.26 as exit, how you trade it from here is up to you, if you are sensible you should have an only profit position from here🤙
Have a wonderful weekend.
Peace.
#TheWolfThatWins
Its very clear what is happening.
This is mostly what matters for Crypto price.
Please see attached images before reading.
Today the Price of an Interest rate Cut in July went up to nearly 9% (It was 4% a couple days ago) , the September cut has now gone up to 93% from 77%
This is the news we wanted 4 months ago, now it could be to late, the overall market(stocks, Gold, Crypto) has reacted as such.
The large funds are 100% pricing in a recession, i have absolutely 0 doubt about this.
Large funds or banks dont exit the market in a way you would notice, they DONT want to spook the market, they get out first, before the mad rush to the exit doors begins.
It is already happening, there is news all over that shows this, especially in real estate loans and fraud.
If you want confirmation all you need to do is look how Gold reacted, in times of huge uncertainty, whether that is financial or conflicts, the market rushes to gold, it is the number 1 "Risk off" asset.
This comes down to 1 thing only for Crypto, if Powell cuts in July, that will be the ONLY short-mid term catalyst for a last Bullish phase, i can assure you that it relies mostly on this(for now)
Please dont listen or believe anything else, there is nothing at the moment(outside of war) that will effect crypto price more than this decision.
I have given my theory on this, July Cut-> Pro democrats, anything later and its Pro Trump.
Unemployment is bad but did not collapse, the FED can still hold rates for a few more months, they can still kick the can down the road 1 or 2 more times for Political agenda.
The next rate decision is the 31st of July, a lot more data will come out between now and then, until that decision the market will only make assumptions based on the data.
What Powell decides is what happens, its what will effect crypto price in the coming month-months.
Unless the data gives Powell little option other than to make an emergency rate cut, i think a July cut wont happen.
Will keep you updated.
Peace.
#TheWolfThatWins #cpi #US_Job_Market_Slowdown #Market_Update
This is mostly what matters for Crypto price.
Please see attached images before reading.
Today the Price of an Interest rate Cut in July went up to nearly 9% (It was 4% a couple days ago) , the September cut has now gone up to 93% from 77%
This is the news we wanted 4 months ago, now it could be to late, the overall market(stocks, Gold, Crypto) has reacted as such.
The large funds are 100% pricing in a recession, i have absolutely 0 doubt about this.
Large funds or banks dont exit the market in a way you would notice, they DONT want to spook the market, they get out first, before the mad rush to the exit doors begins.
It is already happening, there is news all over that shows this, especially in real estate loans and fraud.
If you want confirmation all you need to do is look how Gold reacted, in times of huge uncertainty, whether that is financial or conflicts, the market rushes to gold, it is the number 1 "Risk off" asset.
This comes down to 1 thing only for Crypto, if Powell cuts in July, that will be the ONLY short-mid term catalyst for a last Bullish phase, i can assure you that it relies mostly on this(for now)
Please dont listen or believe anything else, there is nothing at the moment(outside of war) that will effect crypto price more than this decision.
I have given my theory on this, July Cut-> Pro democrats, anything later and its Pro Trump.
Unemployment is bad but did not collapse, the FED can still hold rates for a few more months, they can still kick the can down the road 1 or 2 more times for Political agenda.
The next rate decision is the 31st of July, a lot more data will come out between now and then, until that decision the market will only make assumptions based on the data.
What Powell decides is what happens, its what will effect crypto price in the coming month-months.
Unless the data gives Powell little option other than to make an emergency rate cut, i think a July cut wont happen.
Will keep you updated.
Peace.
#TheWolfThatWins #cpi #US_Job_Market_Slowdown #Market_Update
Is there something more behind the Feds decisions? (+CPI data tomorrow)
For people who are bored of reading about this i am sorry, for now it is the most impactful decision effecting the crypto price so that is where most of my focus is.
Some things you might not know.
Trump nominated Powell to serve as Fed Chair in 2017.Biden re-nominated Powell for a second term in 2021.Powell is a republican.The president does not have the power to fire the FED Chair.(Trump says he could)Powells current term as Fed chair ends in May 2026.The US government have no say or (direct) influence in the interest rates set by the FOMC.(Trump wants to change that)Trump has publicly stated he would not nominate Powell again if he was re-elected.For months many democratic leaders have been urging Powell to lower rates, including open letters to Powell and the Fed.👇
Since nominating Powell as the Fed chair, Trump, for the most part has had little praise for him, Trump had even spoken of firing Powell when he was president but this never happened, in the history of the FED this has never happened, there is no precedent or laws applicable to firing an acting FED chair.
Insiders close to Trump have said if re-elected Trump wants to change laws and give the President power over the central banks policy, this would be met with worldwide outrage as it has the potential to seriously impact the worldwide economy.
The Trump game
Love him or hate him i think few would deny Trump knows how to influence people and get what he wants.
If we rewind back to February of this year, Trump was making public accusation that Powell and other Fed members were politically corrupt and they would lower interest rates to help the cause of the democratic party in an election year.
High interest rates = higher cost of borrowing money = more financial pressure on the vast majority of the American people. (Lower rates=happier voting population, less likely to want change)
But wait interest rate cuts never happened, Trump is an idiot?
Trump is either an idiot or he made public accusations of corruption(5 months ago) to lead to the exact point we find ourselves in today.
If the Fed had cut rates in the months following these accusations then Trumps claims are justified and the Fed are corrupt.(Thats what Trump and his supporters would say)
If the Fed dont cut rates then Trump knew the economy would probably reach the point it is currently at, only months before election.
A vast number of the voting population are suffering because of the Feds restrictive policy, Trumps promises of lowering rates, lowering taxes and freeing up money for the American people must be sounding better and better these days, even if you are a democrat.
Back to the FED
If Powell and the Fed are not swayed by political agenda they will likely cut rates by 25bps in September and possibly again in november(If future readings support this)
I personally think if Powell and the fed were backing the democrats then a July cut would seem likely (there is no cut in August) a July cut is priced at 4.7% currently on CME Fedwatch, it is extremely unlikely and if it did happen it would be the end of Powell if Trump wins the election.
The conspiracy angle
The Fed is not immune to political agenda 👇
Lets hypothetically imagine Trump and Powell have an agenda
Trump has mostly said he wants Powell out so please take this as pure speculation, i do know that Trump will say/do almost anything to suit his agenda, if that means keeping Powell around for 4 more years so be it.
How does Powell keep his job (assuming Trump wins) while also trying to rescue a failing US economy?
Powell keeps rates higher for JulyPowell keeps rates higher for September(If the labour market is not on the brink of collapse)Powell lowers rates by 50bps(not 25) in November and again in December to shock the flatlining economy back to life.Trump would enter office with his campaign promises already on the road to completion (Powell would likely stay as Fed chair for 4 more years)
This is all absolute speculation and it relies heavily on how the labour market holds up in the coming months.
Tomorrow we will have HUGE impact CPI data and unemployment.
Firstly for anyone who gets lost with the CPI, Core CPI, Pce , Core Pce.
Core readings are without food and energy.
PCE and CPI are determined by basically the same things, the weight of each reading that makes up for the CPI or PCE numbers is calculated slightly differently.
Other key differences,
CPI is only for urban areas and does not include expenses paid for on behalf of consumers like Medicare or insurance paid by employers.Pce includes all American household spending, including Rural areas and includes spending made on behalf of consumers(Medicare,Insurance paid by employer), it also includes spending of non-profits.
The Feds prefered gauge of inflation is PCE.
As for tomorrow, most analysts are predicting readings mostly as forecast , i think CPI m/m might be the only shock due to high energy costs.
If the numbers come out higher across the board it will be bad for crypto, this is unlikely.
If Core CPI m/m and CPI y/y come out lower it will be good for Crypto, even if the monthly CPI m/m reading comes out a little hot due to energy costs.
If the readings come out as expected it would be slightly Bullish for Crypto.(If unemployment doesnt give a shock)
For me Unemployment is key
The FED can delay or downplay conditions for political reasons but if the unemployment numbers keep going up or get substantially worse then it cant be ignored, they cant kick the can down the road any longer, it will lead to emergency policy changes(lowering rates). Trump would still win if this happened 🤔
Tomorrow will have high volatility during these readings, like i have said in the past week, there is a LOT of pent up uncertainty waiting to hit the markets, Powell didnt unleash that storm but it is there and ready to cause havoc.
High impact readings like these could be the catalyst to unleash the storm.
I am mentally tired so if i made any spelling mistakes or i sound nonsensical then please forgive me🤪
Please trade safely tomorrow or take the day off.
Peace
#TheWolfThatWins #US_Job_Market_Slowdown #Market_Update #BinanceTournament
Some things you might not know.
Trump nominated Powell to serve as Fed Chair in 2017.Biden re-nominated Powell for a second term in 2021.Powell is a republican.The president does not have the power to fire the FED Chair.(Trump says he could)Powells current term as Fed chair ends in May 2026.The US government have no say or (direct) influence in the interest rates set by the FOMC.(Trump wants to change that)Trump has publicly stated he would not nominate Powell again if he was re-elected.For months many democratic leaders have been urging Powell to lower rates, including open letters to Powell and the Fed.👇
Since nominating Powell as the Fed chair, Trump, for the most part has had little praise for him, Trump had even spoken of firing Powell when he was president but this never happened, in the history of the FED this has never happened, there is no precedent or laws applicable to firing an acting FED chair.
Insiders close to Trump have said if re-elected Trump wants to change laws and give the President power over the central banks policy, this would be met with worldwide outrage as it has the potential to seriously impact the worldwide economy.
The Trump game
Love him or hate him i think few would deny Trump knows how to influence people and get what he wants.
If we rewind back to February of this year, Trump was making public accusation that Powell and other Fed members were politically corrupt and they would lower interest rates to help the cause of the democratic party in an election year.
High interest rates = higher cost of borrowing money = more financial pressure on the vast majority of the American people. (Lower rates=happier voting population, less likely to want change)
But wait interest rate cuts never happened, Trump is an idiot?
Trump is either an idiot or he made public accusations of corruption(5 months ago) to lead to the exact point we find ourselves in today.
If the Fed had cut rates in the months following these accusations then Trumps claims are justified and the Fed are corrupt.(Thats what Trump and his supporters would say)
If the Fed dont cut rates then Trump knew the economy would probably reach the point it is currently at, only months before election.
A vast number of the voting population are suffering because of the Feds restrictive policy, Trumps promises of lowering rates, lowering taxes and freeing up money for the American people must be sounding better and better these days, even if you are a democrat.
Back to the FED
If Powell and the Fed are not swayed by political agenda they will likely cut rates by 25bps in September and possibly again in november(If future readings support this)
I personally think if Powell and the fed were backing the democrats then a July cut would seem likely (there is no cut in August) a July cut is priced at 4.7% currently on CME Fedwatch, it is extremely unlikely and if it did happen it would be the end of Powell if Trump wins the election.
The conspiracy angle
The Fed is not immune to political agenda 👇
Lets hypothetically imagine Trump and Powell have an agenda
Trump has mostly said he wants Powell out so please take this as pure speculation, i do know that Trump will say/do almost anything to suit his agenda, if that means keeping Powell around for 4 more years so be it.
How does Powell keep his job (assuming Trump wins) while also trying to rescue a failing US economy?
Powell keeps rates higher for JulyPowell keeps rates higher for September(If the labour market is not on the brink of collapse)Powell lowers rates by 50bps(not 25) in November and again in December to shock the flatlining economy back to life.Trump would enter office with his campaign promises already on the road to completion (Powell would likely stay as Fed chair for 4 more years)
This is all absolute speculation and it relies heavily on how the labour market holds up in the coming months.
Tomorrow we will have HUGE impact CPI data and unemployment.
Firstly for anyone who gets lost with the CPI, Core CPI, Pce , Core Pce.
Core readings are without food and energy.
PCE and CPI are determined by basically the same things, the weight of each reading that makes up for the CPI or PCE numbers is calculated slightly differently.
Other key differences,
CPI is only for urban areas and does not include expenses paid for on behalf of consumers like Medicare or insurance paid by employers.Pce includes all American household spending, including Rural areas and includes spending made on behalf of consumers(Medicare,Insurance paid by employer), it also includes spending of non-profits.
The Feds prefered gauge of inflation is PCE.
As for tomorrow, most analysts are predicting readings mostly as forecast , i think CPI m/m might be the only shock due to high energy costs.
If the numbers come out higher across the board it will be bad for crypto, this is unlikely.
If Core CPI m/m and CPI y/y come out lower it will be good for Crypto, even if the monthly CPI m/m reading comes out a little hot due to energy costs.
If the readings come out as expected it would be slightly Bullish for Crypto.(If unemployment doesnt give a shock)
For me Unemployment is key
The FED can delay or downplay conditions for political reasons but if the unemployment numbers keep going up or get substantially worse then it cant be ignored, they cant kick the can down the road any longer, it will lead to emergency policy changes(lowering rates). Trump would still win if this happened 🤔
Tomorrow will have high volatility during these readings, like i have said in the past week, there is a LOT of pent up uncertainty waiting to hit the markets, Powell didnt unleash that storm but it is there and ready to cause havoc.
High impact readings like these could be the catalyst to unleash the storm.
I am mentally tired so if i made any spelling mistakes or i sound nonsensical then please forgive me🤪
Please trade safely tomorrow or take the day off.
Peace
#TheWolfThatWins #US_Job_Market_Slowdown #Market_Update #BinanceTournament
USDT Scares me, now more than ever.
Last night i read an article about how more and more people are storing funds in USDT, mostly in Countries like Argentina to protect themselves from hyperinflation, this is happening in many countries across the world.
People using USDT for this are likely to be the people whos lives would be ruined if something bad happened.
Most countries effected by hyperinflation or fiat currency uncertainty are also the countries that have far weaker crypto regulations or enforcement agencies that could recover funds.
If you use USDT for this or know somebody who does please share this with them.
The way USDT is run worries me daily, it worries me more with possible MICA fallout and because of US economic concerns( USDT claim 80% of their reserves are in US treasuries)
I am working on a larger story about this with another person, for my own safety and to not get sued there are some things i cant include here.
If you want to know more then google each one of these people, these are the shareholders and people running Tether, a $112 Billion company.(And Bitfinex)
You will find most have criminal links/Pasts or ties to criminal syndicates.
Note that many of them are also shareholders or directors of Bitfinex crypto exchange, including Jean-Louis der velde who is Bitfinex Ceo and Tether shareholder.
Most of them are Italian Citizens.
I wont go into great detail for my own safety, what i will point out is that Stuart Hoegner who is the general counsel for Tether and Bitfinex was head of compliance and security at a company called excapa prior to working for tether/bitfinex.
Excapa ran Ultimate bet which was a hugely popular online poker site.
Ultimate bet defrauded its clients of millions by allowing backdoors in the software that allowed certain(Insider)players to see other players cards, if you dont understand poker this is basically a free money cheat at the expense of regular players, the person who was responsible for client safety at ultimate bet was Stuart Hoegner, now General Councel at Tether/Bitfinex.
He does not seem like a great choice to be General councel for crypto companies worth hundreds of billions.
I could say a LOT about each of them, i might get banned if i do, if you have any concerns take the time to google them yourself, the rabbit hole gets very deep and very scary the deeper you go.
Tethers "Audits" 👇 (These are not audits, they are screenshots for 1 day)
PLEASE PLEASE READ THIS 👇(Copy and paste if you need translation)
Also please note ALL the BDO reports for the last 2 years were done by 1 person, Andrea Mezzadra.
The directors are mostly Italian, they are "audited" by BDO Italy and by 1 person, Andrea Mezzadra, who is also Italian, do you feel we might have a conflict of interest? (Tether is not run out of Italy, why is it "audited" there?)
I wanted to include screenshots of Tethers terms of service but i can get sued for sharing them, it says so in their terms.
Some key points
Tethers funds are not insuredBy using Tether you waive the right to a Jury trialBy using Tether you waive the right to a class action lawsuit, each claim can only be on a person by person basisTether accepts nearly 0 responsibility for loss of fundsTether accepts 0 responsibilty if the reserve report on their site is not accurate for any reason.Basically their terms of service protects them from nearly everything, including insolvency for any reason, if you want to make a claim you need to do so on a person by person basis through courts in the British Virgin Isles.
If you want to read their terms of service in full go ahead, its on USDT site.
Also note that USDT, Bitfinex and many of the other companies run by Ifinex(Parent company)are all run through endless shelf companies across the world, most in tax havens that have far more lenient financial regulations.
Also note that USDT and Bitfinex settled out of court in America for moving huge amount of funds between companies, this was likely done to show funds in Bitfinex when they were "audited", it also meant at that time Tether did not have the funds to back the reserves.
This is also why they wont have a full audit most likely, they can move funds between companies for screenshots on the day of each companies "Audit"
USDT and Bitfinex paid a settlement fine for this, they were also required to give statements to the US securities board for a period of 2 years, that 2 years ended in December 2023.
USDT around this time also changed the wording on their site, it used to say that Tether was "backed 1-1 by the US dollar", without any Crypto community vote or any announcement prior to the fact they changed this to " backed by Tether reserves."
80% of these reserves are "shown" to be in 3 month US treasury bills(Treasury bills are US government debt)
Treasury bills are nearly risk free, they are backed by the US government.
The question you need to ask yourself,
Has the US government stopped scrutinizing Tether so closely because they are such a large holder of US debt.(US Treasury Bills)Does the US goverment turn a blind eye as they can use Tether to see on chain transactions and catch other criminals(the use of tether has been linked to funding terrorism, human trafficking and more)If 80% of Tethers funds are held in US treasuries then why do they not allow a top 4 auditing firm(Deloitte, KPMG, Ernst&Young) to do a FULL audit?, auditing treasury holdings is what these firms do all day, the remaining 20% of Tethers funds are held in BTC, Gold, Money market accounts and secured loans.(All very easy to audit)Tether says top 4 auditing firms wont audit them, thats absolute garbage, it is 2024 and all top auditing firms are more than capable of auditing companies like tether.Each day, around the world, crypto funds are tracked and seized by governments, many of these governments use auditing firms to help them, the fact Tether says no top 4 auditing firm will, or is capable of auditing them is absolute garbage and it is cause for huge alarm.
People use Tether all the time for futures trading, this concern is not my main concern.
My concern is for the people who are using USDT as a savings account, many might have most of their life saving invested in USDT if their local economy or currency is volatile.
Also because USDT is so large it would effect all of crypto liquidity
If you plan on holding Stable coins only for this reason i would strongly advise splitting your holding into other coins like USDC.
USDC is already MICA compliant, they are linked and backed by Black Rock and Coinbase, they are audited by Deloitte and are headquartered in Boston, America.
I would also recommend reading this book👇
I gain absolutely nothing from posting this so please dont start with the FUD comments.
I make these posts to help people understand risks, i mentioned in this post about the Ultimate bet poker scandal, i played poker for a living at this time, i was effected by this, i also had to wait nearly 4 years to get a huge part of my net worth out of Full Tilt poker when that scam happened, in 2018 i lost 5 BTC to a "APY" type scam.
My point is i have been scammed, i have lived through that sickening feeling of knowing you have been scammed, also how easy it is to trust something just because many others do.
I really hate scammers.
Peace.
#TheWolfThatWins #Market_Update #USDT。 #scamriskwarning
People using USDT for this are likely to be the people whos lives would be ruined if something bad happened.
Most countries effected by hyperinflation or fiat currency uncertainty are also the countries that have far weaker crypto regulations or enforcement agencies that could recover funds.
If you use USDT for this or know somebody who does please share this with them.
The way USDT is run worries me daily, it worries me more with possible MICA fallout and because of US economic concerns( USDT claim 80% of their reserves are in US treasuries)
I am working on a larger story about this with another person, for my own safety and to not get sued there are some things i cant include here.
If you want to know more then google each one of these people, these are the shareholders and people running Tether, a $112 Billion company.(And Bitfinex)
You will find most have criminal links/Pasts or ties to criminal syndicates.
Note that many of them are also shareholders or directors of Bitfinex crypto exchange, including Jean-Louis der velde who is Bitfinex Ceo and Tether shareholder.
Most of them are Italian Citizens.
I wont go into great detail for my own safety, what i will point out is that Stuart Hoegner who is the general counsel for Tether and Bitfinex was head of compliance and security at a company called excapa prior to working for tether/bitfinex.
Excapa ran Ultimate bet which was a hugely popular online poker site.
Ultimate bet defrauded its clients of millions by allowing backdoors in the software that allowed certain(Insider)players to see other players cards, if you dont understand poker this is basically a free money cheat at the expense of regular players, the person who was responsible for client safety at ultimate bet was Stuart Hoegner, now General Councel at Tether/Bitfinex.
He does not seem like a great choice to be General councel for crypto companies worth hundreds of billions.
I could say a LOT about each of them, i might get banned if i do, if you have any concerns take the time to google them yourself, the rabbit hole gets very deep and very scary the deeper you go.
Tethers "Audits" 👇 (These are not audits, they are screenshots for 1 day)
PLEASE PLEASE READ THIS 👇(Copy and paste if you need translation)
Also please note ALL the BDO reports for the last 2 years were done by 1 person, Andrea Mezzadra.
The directors are mostly Italian, they are "audited" by BDO Italy and by 1 person, Andrea Mezzadra, who is also Italian, do you feel we might have a conflict of interest? (Tether is not run out of Italy, why is it "audited" there?)
I wanted to include screenshots of Tethers terms of service but i can get sued for sharing them, it says so in their terms.
Some key points
Tethers funds are not insuredBy using Tether you waive the right to a Jury trialBy using Tether you waive the right to a class action lawsuit, each claim can only be on a person by person basisTether accepts nearly 0 responsibility for loss of fundsTether accepts 0 responsibilty if the reserve report on their site is not accurate for any reason.Basically their terms of service protects them from nearly everything, including insolvency for any reason, if you want to make a claim you need to do so on a person by person basis through courts in the British Virgin Isles.
If you want to read their terms of service in full go ahead, its on USDT site.
Also note that USDT, Bitfinex and many of the other companies run by Ifinex(Parent company)are all run through endless shelf companies across the world, most in tax havens that have far more lenient financial regulations.
Also note that USDT and Bitfinex settled out of court in America for moving huge amount of funds between companies, this was likely done to show funds in Bitfinex when they were "audited", it also meant at that time Tether did not have the funds to back the reserves.
This is also why they wont have a full audit most likely, they can move funds between companies for screenshots on the day of each companies "Audit"
USDT and Bitfinex paid a settlement fine for this, they were also required to give statements to the US securities board for a period of 2 years, that 2 years ended in December 2023.
USDT around this time also changed the wording on their site, it used to say that Tether was "backed 1-1 by the US dollar", without any Crypto community vote or any announcement prior to the fact they changed this to " backed by Tether reserves."
80% of these reserves are "shown" to be in 3 month US treasury bills(Treasury bills are US government debt)
Treasury bills are nearly risk free, they are backed by the US government.
The question you need to ask yourself,
Has the US government stopped scrutinizing Tether so closely because they are such a large holder of US debt.(US Treasury Bills)Does the US goverment turn a blind eye as they can use Tether to see on chain transactions and catch other criminals(the use of tether has been linked to funding terrorism, human trafficking and more)If 80% of Tethers funds are held in US treasuries then why do they not allow a top 4 auditing firm(Deloitte, KPMG, Ernst&Young) to do a FULL audit?, auditing treasury holdings is what these firms do all day, the remaining 20% of Tethers funds are held in BTC, Gold, Money market accounts and secured loans.(All very easy to audit)Tether says top 4 auditing firms wont audit them, thats absolute garbage, it is 2024 and all top auditing firms are more than capable of auditing companies like tether.Each day, around the world, crypto funds are tracked and seized by governments, many of these governments use auditing firms to help them, the fact Tether says no top 4 auditing firm will, or is capable of auditing them is absolute garbage and it is cause for huge alarm.
People use Tether all the time for futures trading, this concern is not my main concern.
My concern is for the people who are using USDT as a savings account, many might have most of their life saving invested in USDT if their local economy or currency is volatile.
Also because USDT is so large it would effect all of crypto liquidity
If you plan on holding Stable coins only for this reason i would strongly advise splitting your holding into other coins like USDC.
USDC is already MICA compliant, they are linked and backed by Black Rock and Coinbase, they are audited by Deloitte and are headquartered in Boston, America.
I would also recommend reading this book👇
I gain absolutely nothing from posting this so please dont start with the FUD comments.
I make these posts to help people understand risks, i mentioned in this post about the Ultimate bet poker scandal, i played poker for a living at this time, i was effected by this, i also had to wait nearly 4 years to get a huge part of my net worth out of Full Tilt poker when that scam happened, in 2018 i lost 5 BTC to a "APY" type scam.
My point is i have been scammed, i have lived through that sickening feeling of knowing you have been scammed, also how easy it is to trust something just because many others do.
I really hate scammers.
Peace.
#TheWolfThatWins #Market_Update #USDT。 #scamriskwarning
XAI
I made a post the other day shorting XAI, i am still short and this is exactly the reason i short these shitcoins with low leverage and for 1-2 weeks.
This price action and the funding fee contradict each other, its some form of short term manipulation, it does not worry me at all.
I will hold my short and i have another limit sell order at 0.4.(also 2x leverage)
I have done a lot of research into Token unlocks, this price action is normal, sometimes it takes time for the price to fall after a massive unlock.
Price fell 15% after my post so you possibly already cashed out profits, if not then dont panic i have high confidence the price will fall in the coming days-week.
This is research related to large token unlocks,👇
The article states,
Unlocks free up liquidity and are widely considered bearish, though some observers say they only accentuate the existing market trend.
New research by analytics firm The Tie shows coins, on average, declined in the lead-up to the event. However, when the liquidity freed up represented more than 100% of the average daily volume, prices quickly recovered, only to fall deeper within two weeks following the unlock. The firm conducted a study of over 350,000 unique unlock events involving more than 100 tokens.
"In cases where the unlock represented more than 100% of the average daily volume, prices tended to rebound faster, albeit for a brief period. This could be attributed to traders feeling relieved that the unlock did not flood the market with new tokens immediately," Lawrence Lewitinn, the director of content at The Tie, wrote in Wednesday's newsletter.
"Nonetheless, within two weeks, prices of tokens facing such significant unlocks fell below their initial levels at the time of the unlock," he wrote. "
This may suggest that holders preferred to wait a few days before selling into the market."
The Tie's research also showed an exponential increase in trading volumes in coins that saw large unlocks.
End of Article.
Stick to the plan, dont panic.
Peace.
#TheWolfThatWins #XAIUSDT #TokenUpdate
I made a post the other day shorting XAI, i am still short and this is exactly the reason i short these shitcoins with low leverage and for 1-2 weeks.
This price action and the funding fee contradict each other, its some form of short term manipulation, it does not worry me at all.
I will hold my short and i have another limit sell order at 0.4.(also 2x leverage)
I have done a lot of research into Token unlocks, this price action is normal, sometimes it takes time for the price to fall after a massive unlock.
Price fell 15% after my post so you possibly already cashed out profits, if not then dont panic i have high confidence the price will fall in the coming days-week.
This is research related to large token unlocks,👇
The article states,
Unlocks free up liquidity and are widely considered bearish, though some observers say they only accentuate the existing market trend.
New research by analytics firm The Tie shows coins, on average, declined in the lead-up to the event. However, when the liquidity freed up represented more than 100% of the average daily volume, prices quickly recovered, only to fall deeper within two weeks following the unlock. The firm conducted a study of over 350,000 unique unlock events involving more than 100 tokens.
"In cases where the unlock represented more than 100% of the average daily volume, prices tended to rebound faster, albeit for a brief period. This could be attributed to traders feeling relieved that the unlock did not flood the market with new tokens immediately," Lawrence Lewitinn, the director of content at The Tie, wrote in Wednesday's newsletter.
"Nonetheless, within two weeks, prices of tokens facing such significant unlocks fell below their initial levels at the time of the unlock," he wrote. "
This may suggest that holders preferred to wait a few days before selling into the market."
The Tie's research also showed an exponential increase in trading volumes in coins that saw large unlocks.
End of Article.
Stick to the plan, dont panic.
Peace.
#TheWolfThatWins #XAIUSDT #TokenUpdate
The storm that never happened.
So Powell once again gave nothing.
The only effect today had is making a September cut less likely, it was 77% yesterday and now it is 73%, nothing major.
I am honestly surprised by how little today effected the market but at the same time if you "Zoom out" it makes more sense.
As i said yesterday this is likely politically motivated, Powell and the Fed know that Trump is most likely going to win, and when he does the interest rates are coming down and consumer spending will increase- more inflation.
The labour market will cause a recession i have no doubt, its already at a worrying level and even "Bullish" news sources are starting to change their tone with regards to bad news becoming bad news.
I could write all day about the labour market worries(I have before in my posts), i am nearly certain in the next 6 months the labour market will break down in a way nobody can ignore any longer.
For now that does little to the market, this is not just regarding crypto its for everything, the worldwide market is waiting for a catalyst to fomo in more or to rush to the exit doors.
As Powell gave nothing today the Market will have laser focus on the CPI data and unemployment on Thursday(July 11th)
I wish i had more to offer but for now there is no direction.
Peace
#TheWolfThatWins #US_Job_Market_Slowdown #Market_Update #SOFR_Spike
So Powell once again gave nothing.
The only effect today had is making a September cut less likely, it was 77% yesterday and now it is 73%, nothing major.
I am honestly surprised by how little today effected the market but at the same time if you "Zoom out" it makes more sense.
As i said yesterday this is likely politically motivated, Powell and the Fed know that Trump is most likely going to win, and when he does the interest rates are coming down and consumer spending will increase- more inflation.
The labour market will cause a recession i have no doubt, its already at a worrying level and even "Bullish" news sources are starting to change their tone with regards to bad news becoming bad news.
I could write all day about the labour market worries(I have before in my posts), i am nearly certain in the next 6 months the labour market will break down in a way nobody can ignore any longer.
For now that does little to the market, this is not just regarding crypto its for everything, the worldwide market is waiting for a catalyst to fomo in more or to rush to the exit doors.
As Powell gave nothing today the Market will have laser focus on the CPI data and unemployment on Thursday(July 11th)
I wish i had more to offer but for now there is no direction.
Peace
#TheWolfThatWins #US_Job_Market_Slowdown #Market_Update #SOFR_Spike
We are playing checkers, they are playing chess.
What happens in the next 2 days is part of a far larger game, sadly that game also effects Crypto price in a big way.
July 9th 2PM UTC
Fed Chair Jerome Powell and US treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will testify before the finance committee
July 10th- 2PM UTC
Jerome Powell will resume day 2 of testifying before the finance committee.
Things to note,
This will be Powells last scheduled public address to congress before electionsWhat Powell says will have far greater impact than what Yellen says.(Yellen is speaking for Bidens economic policy,it wont have as much effect this close to elections)The Fed(Including Powell) is an independent government agency(Central Bank), they are not controlled or funded by either party or the President.
I have including these election odds because these mattter more than ever, including for the short term price of Crypto.
After Bidens horrendous showing in the first presidential debate it was widely speculated he would drop out, in the days that followed Harris overtook Biden as the odds on favorite to run against Trump.
Since then Biden has firmly denied any chance he will drop out, he has even gone on national TV and done high profile interviews to enforce he will run in this election.
What the FED does now is KEY!
As noted the Fed, Chaired by Jerome Powell is an independent Government agency responsible for the central banks policy, they are not funded from the government budget, they are however accountable to congress and the American people for their monetary Policy.
Only a fool would be naive enough to believe the FED, including Powell and all its voting members have 0 political agenda this close to election.
In the next 2 days the democrats will be pushing for a clear indication of an interest rate cut, either in July but more likely in September, they need this as the US economy is either already in a hidden recession or on the brink of recession, the American people are already feeling the pressure of this higher for longer stance, these are the people who will decide the next president.
Keeping rates higher and putting more stress on the American economy and a vast number of its population would empower Trump and his campaign even more, one of Trumps many campaign promises is to lower Interest rates and taxes.
The American economy could already be passed the point of a "Soft landing", any shocks in the coming days will likely be politically motivated.
Things that could shock the market in the next 2 days,
Powell makes a July interest rate cut a realistic possibilty, this would without question be politically motivated to help the cause of the democratic party, it would also send stocks and crypto up A LOT.Powell says the economy and the labour market is strong and the Feds higher for longer stance is working and needs more time, decreasing the odds of a September cut, once again this would be politically motivated and favour the republican party, the US economy and the labour market are not fine.
Please note that no interest rate decisions happen in August, its July or September for the near term.
The wider market is also waiting to see what happens in the comings day, the start of the week has shown total indecision in the market, Gold price has lost its Friday gains, the S&P500 started today up but has since lost its early gains, the DXY has made up for some of its losses last week.
If we were not so close to election i would see this as a Bullish opportunity for Crypto (Short term), not because i think the US economy is fine, i think the total opposite.
I can name 50 readings that show the US economy is on the brink of recession(or crash) but for now they mean little for the short term price.
I know, and so do all the hedge funds and market movers, that before a recession or crash, the FED will make drastic, last gasp moves , these moves will lead to a last Euphoric phase before the bubble bursts.(This is only if the FED have no political agenda)
This is why i am monitoring other markets so closely, unfortunately this close to an election it adds a level of uncertainty that nobody(without insider knowledge) can predict.
If the Fed is not corrupted and has no political agenda then Powells testimony in the next 2 days should keep the odds of a September cut and possibly 1 more in November/December as the likely outcome.
What is said in the next 2 days will have huge implications as to how Crypto, S&P500, Gold and the DXY price reacts.(It will effect everything, these just give a basic market understanding)
I have no insider knowledge and also little trust in any system when the stakes are this high.
If you want to enter positions now then do so in Spot or extremely low leverage or margin.
I cant stress enough how volatile the next few days will be, there is huge uncertainty across the markets, across the world, when that pent up uncertainty hits the market it will create havoc short term, especially to high leverage and margin.
Please trade safely.
Peace
#TheWolfThatWins #US_Job_Market_Slowdown #Market_Update #MtGoxJulyRepayments
July 9th 2PM UTC
Fed Chair Jerome Powell and US treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will testify before the finance committee
July 10th- 2PM UTC
Jerome Powell will resume day 2 of testifying before the finance committee.
Things to note,
This will be Powells last scheduled public address to congress before electionsWhat Powell says will have far greater impact than what Yellen says.(Yellen is speaking for Bidens economic policy,it wont have as much effect this close to elections)The Fed(Including Powell) is an independent government agency(Central Bank), they are not controlled or funded by either party or the President.
I have including these election odds because these mattter more than ever, including for the short term price of Crypto.
After Bidens horrendous showing in the first presidential debate it was widely speculated he would drop out, in the days that followed Harris overtook Biden as the odds on favorite to run against Trump.
Since then Biden has firmly denied any chance he will drop out, he has even gone on national TV and done high profile interviews to enforce he will run in this election.
What the FED does now is KEY!
As noted the Fed, Chaired by Jerome Powell is an independent Government agency responsible for the central banks policy, they are not funded from the government budget, they are however accountable to congress and the American people for their monetary Policy.
Only a fool would be naive enough to believe the FED, including Powell and all its voting members have 0 political agenda this close to election.
In the next 2 days the democrats will be pushing for a clear indication of an interest rate cut, either in July but more likely in September, they need this as the US economy is either already in a hidden recession or on the brink of recession, the American people are already feeling the pressure of this higher for longer stance, these are the people who will decide the next president.
Keeping rates higher and putting more stress on the American economy and a vast number of its population would empower Trump and his campaign even more, one of Trumps many campaign promises is to lower Interest rates and taxes.
The American economy could already be passed the point of a "Soft landing", any shocks in the coming days will likely be politically motivated.
Things that could shock the market in the next 2 days,
Powell makes a July interest rate cut a realistic possibilty, this would without question be politically motivated to help the cause of the democratic party, it would also send stocks and crypto up A LOT.Powell says the economy and the labour market is strong and the Feds higher for longer stance is working and needs more time, decreasing the odds of a September cut, once again this would be politically motivated and favour the republican party, the US economy and the labour market are not fine.
Please note that no interest rate decisions happen in August, its July or September for the near term.
The wider market is also waiting to see what happens in the comings day, the start of the week has shown total indecision in the market, Gold price has lost its Friday gains, the S&P500 started today up but has since lost its early gains, the DXY has made up for some of its losses last week.
If we were not so close to election i would see this as a Bullish opportunity for Crypto (Short term), not because i think the US economy is fine, i think the total opposite.
I can name 50 readings that show the US economy is on the brink of recession(or crash) but for now they mean little for the short term price.
I know, and so do all the hedge funds and market movers, that before a recession or crash, the FED will make drastic, last gasp moves , these moves will lead to a last Euphoric phase before the bubble bursts.(This is only if the FED have no political agenda)
This is why i am monitoring other markets so closely, unfortunately this close to an election it adds a level of uncertainty that nobody(without insider knowledge) can predict.
If the Fed is not corrupted and has no political agenda then Powells testimony in the next 2 days should keep the odds of a September cut and possibly 1 more in November/December as the likely outcome.
What is said in the next 2 days will have huge implications as to how Crypto, S&P500, Gold and the DXY price reacts.(It will effect everything, these just give a basic market understanding)
I have no insider knowledge and also little trust in any system when the stakes are this high.
If you want to enter positions now then do so in Spot or extremely low leverage or margin.
I cant stress enough how volatile the next few days will be, there is huge uncertainty across the markets, across the world, when that pent up uncertainty hits the market it will create havoc short term, especially to high leverage and margin.
Please trade safely.
Peace
#TheWolfThatWins #US_Job_Market_Slowdown #Market_Update #MtGoxJulyRepayments