#BTC According to historical rules, the few months before and after the halving are our opportunities to lay out long-term chips. The current wave of grayscale market crashes, coupled with the fading of expectations for an interest rate cut in March, as well as various macro aspects, the denial of interest rate cuts, and the realization of cash during the Spring Festival, give This gives us a good opportunity to enter the market. In the next few months, we need to pay attention to the time when the Federal Reserve will stop shrinking its balance sheet. Stopping shrinking its balance sheet means the end of tightening. The currency circle will still be affected by the US stock market, but it will not be as big as it is now, and funds will flow back. Go to the currency circle.

The last wave of opportunities before the bull market. Of course, we give priority to core assets in our layout. Ether accounts for at least 70% of the big pie. If the current 40,000 is blocked and unstable, it is a very good choice to enter the spot in the range of 38,500-37,000. Below 38,000 It is a good medium and long-term layout opportunity. In addition to the recent Cancun upgrade module, which is a good currency, these few also recommend RDNT MAGIC GMX GNS. I will talk about why I am optimistic about these coins later. Time changes space, the rest is left to patience, the bull market is on the way$BTC

Maybe many people still don't understand what ETF inflows mean? Is it a good thing or a bad thing? Let's make a comparison.

BTC: (market value 1.2 trillion)
The ETF listing price was 49,000 on 1/11.

On 1/24, the selling pressure fell to 38,500. (-21.5%)

On 3/15, it reached a historical high of 73,800. (+91.7%)

ETH: (market value 350 billion)
The ETF price listed on July 23 was 3530
On August 5, Grayscale's selling pressure also fell to 2080 (-41.1%)

The value of BTC is about 3.5 times that of Ethereum. Currently, the total net inflow of Bitcoin's ETF is 17.3 billion US dollars. It is conservatively estimated that the inflow of Ethereum is half of that of Bitcoin, 8.6 billion. A rough calculation shows that the increase will be 1.75 times that of Bitcoin, which is 160.5%

Now you know what the concept is. Assuming that the inflow of Ethereum can reach half of that of Bitcoin, the price is conservatively estimated to be 2.6 times the current price, which is at least 5400. The current net inflow is (-406 million). Continue to pay attention to the trend of Ethereum

MEME coins have completely exploded, making most traditional value coins look pale in comparison. It can even be said that the face of value coins has been severely rubbed on the ground by MEME coins.

For those investors who hold value coins, they have not felt the arrival of the bull market at all. Except for a few value coins in popular tracks such as TON, SOL, and BTC, which have performed relatively well, other value coins are really hard to describe, either stagnating or showing a downward trend.

Those who are fully committed to MEME coins have set new highs in wealth. One batch after another of people have become rich by relying on various so-called "dog" projects. Every time when the market shows a counterattack, MEME coins take the lead and lead the market's upward trend.

In the financial market, which is essentially a hot money market and liquidity pool, the role of attention boards is crucial. In the case of little increase in total market value, funds tend to flow to a certain direction. When a large amount of funds flow to MEME coins, the value coin market on the other side is bound to be exhausted. This imbalance in capital flow is directly reflected in the rise and fall of prices, and the crazy rise of MEME coins is naturally eye-catching enough.

At present, the popularity of MEME coins continues to rise. Some people broke their defense because they couldn't stand the sluggish performance of value coins, chose to join the investment camp of MEME coins, and made money; some people missed the early opportunities of MEME coins or didn't know much about them, so they have been watching. But overall, the prejudice of society against MEME coins remains at a high level

#TON #SOL #meme #pepe

6.2 billion PEPE tokens were destroyed. The benefits are obvious: first, the supply is greatly reduced, which can easily drive up prices and increase value. Second, the scarcity is enhanced, and the number is reduced in each transaction, which can attract more investors. Third, it enhances investor confidence. The project party's move is intended to maintain value and interests, and is expected to drive up prices.

In the short term, Bitcoin is unlikely to bottom out again. At most, it will pull back on the daily line and continue to hit the pressure levels of 62,500 and 63,800 US dollars. The CME gap has been filled. For this rebound, the stop profit is set at 65,000-68,000 US dollars. Because the short-term indicators need to be repaired, it will not hit the high point of 70,000 at once. The whales bottomed out and promoted the rebound.

Key points to pay attention to

1. US recession expectations, because it caused this decline, if the relevant data is hyped, it will affect the market.

2. The political situation in the United States, Trump lost the election, Harris represented the Democratic Party and had a high approval rate, which affected the policy environment of cryptocurrency.

3. Japan's interest rate hike once triggered a plunge in the global financial market. If the interest rate is raised again, it will affect capital flow and market liquidity.

4. US stocks and spot ETF data, Bitcoin is related to the US stock NASDAQ, and ETF data reflects market sentiment and purchasing power.

#TON #SUI #NOT #XRP #PEPE

Last night, the big cake tested the strong support of 59490 again and then rebounded slightly, which is considered to be out of the weak market. In the next two days, it is likely to fluctuate widely in the range of 58500-62800 to wait.

The market price is still running above the four-hour Bollinger middle rail, and there is EMA100 suppression above, which is basically the same as the script we talked about yesterday. The next step is to wait for the macd indicator to challenge the upward pressure again after adjusting above.

Continue to buy low during the day, and wait for the support of the day to be placed on the Bollinger middle rail in the range of 59100-58600. If it falls below, refer to the second-level mid-term bottom defense in the range of 55300-56000

Because the market is very strong at present, the weekend still chooses to layout low and long, and the pressure position chooses the high point of this time 62400-63000 to layout short orders

The big cake is strong again. The four-hour level has broken through the Bollinger middle rail with volume. MACD has also broken through the zero axis. The 57800 support and resistance have been exchanged. In the short term, as long as it is retested here, it is likely to be supported. In the morning, 62000 was suppressed by the Bollinger middle rail. After reaching 62700, the market returned to 60000.

This decline is basically over. Don’t look at any second bottoming. 49000 is the golden pit this time. The current market has volume and price. In the second half of the month, it will definitely be hyped up by interest rate cuts and CZ coming out. Mentougou is completely over. Many long-term positive events, seize the opportunity to absorb funds during consolidation

Intraday shock adjustment market, stabilize the four-hour Bollinger middle rail 57500-58000 support level for low-absorption operations, intraday support reference 60000, breakthrough orders can be seen at 61300, target 62500-63000, after the callback, it is still mainly low-multiple.

I told you to enter the market at the mid-line near 54,000 in the evening. You should pay attention to avoid the risk of decline. This time, the big cake made a golden pit and fell to 54,000. It pulled back to 57,000 in the morning. Now it has a floating profit of more than 3,000 points.

At this stage, those who are still on the train are those who have been holding below 45,000. From the chart, we can see that there were almost no liquidations last night, but the position volume was greatly reduced. Almost no one dared to take long orders. At this stage, the train is light and the dealer will take action.

Technically, it will be a wide range of low-level shocks in the short term. The big cake is firmly above the middle rail of Bollinger in four hours, but from the perspective of MACD, it is still below the zero axis. It may maintain shock repair and choose the direction later.

Continue to sell high and buy low during the day. The long orders taken from the low of 54,000 last night should be stopped at the pressure of the upper rail of Bollinger at 58,000-58,500. The pressure level refers to the range of 59,000-60,000, and the support level is 556,000-56,100.

BTC's short position at 57,000 last night dropped to 55,557 at its lowest. It broke through the four-hour Bollinger middle rail again during the day. Although the small-level trend fluctuated upward, it is currently back to around 57,000.

But to be bullish overall, at least a second bottom test is needed to confirm that the decline has weakened, and the time cycle may take a week.

In addition, during this week's data window period, it is best to repeatedly wash the market. After a certain degree, CPI will choose a direction next week. From a technical point of view, the pressure level of 57,500-58,000 has arrived. The hourly MACD currently crosses the zero axis. At present, the rebound is very strong, and there is a chance to challenge the pressure of the 60,000 integer mark again.

The support level during the day is 56,100-55,700. This position can be used as a reference for short-term entry. It only takes four or five hundred points to defend. If it breaks, you can refer to the second support for a mid-term single entry around 54,000. The 60,000 integer mark gives you an opportunity to consider shorting.

SOL's over-the-counter (OTC) trading is about to unlock. The cost of this unlocking is about 100.

This situation is very likely to bring a certain degree of panic to the SOL market. Because a large number of chips unlocked may cause a sudden increase in supply in the market, thereby exerting downward pressure on prices.

Objectively speaking, institutions participating in OTC are well aware of the risks and opportunities of the market, and usually adopt hedging strategies to reduce potential losses. So from the perspective of capital, there are certain benefits to pulling up SOL

By raising the price to a high enough position, capital can take the opportunity to open short hedges, thereby harvesting funds in future market fluctuations. As far as the current situation is concerned, the SOL ecosystem is extremely active, and some even claim that its activity exceeds that of ETH.

But it should be clear that this activity is largely caused by the MEME effect. Under the influence of this effect, everyone fell into a crazy FOMO (emotion, and the demand for SOL rose sharply

In this process, most people ignored the potential rollback risk of SOL. Once this risk breaks out, it may cause investors incalculable losses.

1. In the cryptocurrency circle, no one is born a master. Only by constantly learning and adapting can you gain a firm foothold.

2. Cryptocurrency trading is not just about making money. It is more like a game that tests your mentality, wisdom and patience. Only by keeping a stable mentality can you survive longer in this market.

3. Seize opportunities, control risks, and don't let your account lose control.

4. The market is like life, with ups and downs. You need to face it calmly and stay rational. Don't go all-in.

5. Many times, failure is due to strategy and mentality. Keep a good attitude and don't be affected by temporary wins and losses. This is an important secret to becoming a winner.

The interest rate hike cycle is a fierce game period for the dealers to redistribute interests. From another perspective, why didn't the Fed cut interest rates in July?

Instead, it was put on September, leaving August empty. Isn't this just to leave a time difference and facilitate the dealers to reshuffle? It is hard to say that Powell and other directors did not see the unemployment rate data released on August 2 in advance.

They so accurately changed the basis for decision-making to not only look at inflation but also employment at the interest rate meeting held on the last two days of July. Powell even said bluntly that if employment is not good, then interest rate cuts will be started.

In front of the visible hand, the market is slow to react. When the market realized that the economic recession was imminent at the weekend, the Federal Reserve had already closed the meeting and slipped away. Want to find it to save the market immediately, no way! Buffett cleverly cooperated and added fuel to the fire, releasing news of a large reduction in US stocks, which effectively promoted the overall collapse of the market.

Who will be the winner in this round of tightening cycle of less than 3 years? The answer is actually very obvious. Look at the past two years. Whoever expands credit against the trend is the winner. Yes, it's still these two brothers: the Eagle Sauce that sells US bonds, and the Rabbit that cuts interest rates against the trend.

Then who is the loser? When the easing cycle comes, whoever has less money in his pocket is the loser. The Federal Reserve will be back for another meeting in late September. The bosses have discussed the instructions, the thugs have cleared the battlefield, and Powell can open the door and read the script as planned, announcing the interest rate cut that the market has been thinking about!

The cryptocurrency market has experienced a sharp drop, among which the leverage liquidation in ETH is particularly tragic, followed by BTC. Data shows that more than 200,000 people have been liquidated, and the amount of liquidation is as high as more than 800 million US dollars. In fact, for old leeks, they are already accustomed to such fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market. In a round of bull and bear, similar situations will always occur several times, which is not a black swan event.

This decline is mainly driven by BTC's own internal factors (such as Mt.Gox liquidation) driven by low-level reshuffles, rather than external factors (such as the Fed's interest rate cuts and the US economic recession) driven by trend reversals. Mentougou's overall compensation is divided into 1/3 must-sell, 1/3 paper hands, and 1/3 diamond hands.

After taking over the 1/3 that must be thrown, the market tends to find opportunities to wash out 1/3 of the paper hands, and then open the market, which will be easier. This is very consistent with the "maximum loss principle" I talked about before: the market always moves in the direction of making as many people as possible suffer as much loss as possible.

At the beginning of 2024, it broke through the previous round of "previous high" of 69,000 dollars. So, obviously, either the bull market starts and ends early, or it is desperate to clean up, blow up all the positions that should be blown up, let those who are desperate to cut their losses cut their losses and leave the market, and let those who have received unexpected windfalls hand over their chips at a low position, until the market is clean, and then it is good to plan for the future market. According to the above semi-quantitative analysis, if you sell 1/3 and retrace from 68k to 60k, then cut another 1/3 and retrace to 52k. It is actually reasonable and not surprising at all. All those who are afraid of liquidating and leaving the market, and those who are forced to leave the market because of leverage explosion and loss, can only say that it is their fate.

#SOL #BTC #ETH #BNB #PEPE

There has never been a savior.
We don’t rely on Powell and the Federal Reserve.
To create happiness in the cryptocurrency world, it all depends on the bulls themselves.
We must take back the fruits of the bulls and let the K-line break through the cage of decline.
Hurry up and make that position red. Go long while it’s hot to succeed!

Today's operation suggestions:
1. Shanghai Tower (632 meters)
2. Guangzhou Tower (600 meters)
3. Shenzhen Ping An International Financial Center (599 meters)
4. Tianjin Goldin Financial 117 Tower (597 meters)
5. Guangzhou Chow Tai Fook Center (530 meters)
6. Beijing China Zun (528 meters)
7. Taipei 101 Tower (508 meters)
8. Shanghai World Financial Center (492 meters)
9. Chongqing Luhai International Center (458 meters)
10. Malaysia Petronas Twin Towers (451.9 meters)
11. Dubai Burj Khalifa (828 meters)

ETH is basically drawing a door. From the 4-hour chart, it has fallen from a high of 3500 to around 2855. At present, the previous low support is still very strong. Remember to take profit for short orders.

The exchange rate continues to maintain a low of 0.048. Ether is still relatively weak. At most, it can only be arranged on the left side.

The sentiment of the US stock market crash is still continuing. The market needs time to brew. At this stage, the probability of a V-turn pullback is not high. At least it will have to fluctuate for a while before choosing a direction.

Next, there is a high probability that there will be a second bottoming out like the big cake. The upper pressure of the intraday operation is 2960-2990. Short short at highs, and the target is the lower low of 2800-2850 support and target.

In the evening, BTC bulls were cleaned up again, falling to the starting point of the bull market in early July. Last night's analysis gave a short-selling idea near the Bollinger middle track of 62,500. The lowest price in the evening fell to 59,850.

This wave started to fall from 70,000 and began to weaken after the explosion in the middle, indicating that the dealer began to refuse to sell at a low price. There is still a certain amount of chip carrying space in the current price range. The current market decline is gradually shrinking. Don't blindly look at the bearish side.

From a technical point of view, the current position is the Fibonacci 0.618 support we mentioned. There is a rebound demand at this position. The main observation is the three pressure levels of 61,400/62,200/63,200 above. If the 1H signal can form a long-short conversion, the trend will change.

The short-term upper pressure level is 62,300-63,500, and the lower support level focuses on two positions. The first support is 60,000. If there is another large-scale decline, the medium-term support focuses on the last multiple bottom 56,800

The currency circle is full of air. No matter what currency, what track, what background, what financing, etc., what do these have to do with you? Entering the currency circle is to make money, not to have any beliefs!

Focus on volume and price, especially volume. Volume is equivalent to funds, which is equivalent to the salary of the main team. The main force does not buy when the price is extremely low, so why do you dare to buy it?

If you see signs of a certain coin absorbing funds, you will not lose too much if you buy it again. But if you rush in without seeing the absorption of funds, you are full of faith, thinking that this is the TOP1 of XX track, the layout of XX track will explode in the future, and it has a great background, etc.

What are you believing in? The price has fallen to the point where it can't fall anymore, and the main force has not paid out real money to buy these coins. Why do you want to buy them with your hard-earned money? You can't even eat, and you still buy these junk coins. Then, do you want to pass on the so-called pattern to the next generation?

In the end, those main forces enjoy themselves every day, hugging young models on both sides, what about you? I can only comfort myself every day

Recently, I have seen a lot of ENA that KOl has been promoting. How is it now? Many people asked me about it when they bought it at 1.2. Now it has fallen to 0.3. What should I do? I can only blame myself for rushing in blindly.

Current situation of the cryptocurrency circle

First, retail investors’ patience is almost exhausted, and incremental large funds are even more scarce.

Second, due to the interest rate hikes and stricter supervision in the United States, large funds used to flow in and out through American banks, but now they are almost extinct. Coupled with the overall depression of the environment, the pockets of institutions have also shrunk.

Third, domestic supervision is still strict, and domestic project parties can only be cautious.

Fourth, the innovation of the cryptocurrency circle is limited, and there are few breakthrough new things, which are basically new wine in old bottles. The opportunities for retail investors are mainly on the chain, but the lack of incremental funds makes it difficult to sustain the money-making effect, and it is difficult to cultivate consensus among retail investors.

Fifth, this situation requires the United States to release water again to increase the liquidity of the market, and at the same time Hong Kong truly liberalizes its policies to allow institutional funds to enter this market through more channels, gather people's hearts and cultivate consensus, and eth needs to continue to optimize the transaction fees on the chain.

Sixth, last year was tough, and this year is even more miserable. Retail investors lost a lot of money by buying airdrops or buying local stocks, and the spot holdings also shrunk by 60%-90%. The market will not be active again until the Americans start to cut interest rates.

Seventh, this is the trend and rhythm of the next bull-bear cycle in the cryptocurrency circle. If you are optimistic about the fourth quarter and grasp it well, there will be basically no problem. The rest depends on your belief in the cryptocurrency circle!

The risk of a US recession has led to a sharp drop in US stocks. Isn't this the background of the last bull market?

Why has it come to this point today? It is 11 violent interest rate hikes. How can the economy be good when the money is in the bank? The result is that inflation has been suppressed, but the economic deterioration has exceeded expectations, and the global economy has basically collapsed.

The interest rate cut is like a reservoir. The interest rate cut opens the tap, funds flow out, and US stocks naturally fall.

The biggest driving force of the last bull market was not the loose quantitative policy, but the large amount of capital inflows brought about by traders' pessimistic expectations of the economic outlook.

Bitcoin and gold are not closely related, but both are strong reverse indicators of economic expectations in terms of speed and trend. If you understand it, you will know why you care so much about interest rates.