When the bull market comes, there will be many bloggers who promote coins. Once the trend appears, all coins can be pulled up. At this time, you will see that all bloggers are awesome, and it is easy to lose judgment on these bloggers, mistakenly thinking that their level is very high, and will continue to follow them. As a result, many people follow them from the top of the bull market to the bottom of the bear market. Finally, the blogger disappears and retail investors lose all their money.

In my personal experience, there are three requirements for a kol

1. Be able to judge the approximate position of the bull market start, so as not to miss the bull market.

2. Be able to escape the top at the approximate top.

3. Be able to judge when the bear market comes, and constantly remind the empty position status (core).

And very few people can do these three points. Most people can only start shouting orders after the bull market starts. You have left and still think it is a callback. You find that it is a bear market at the bottom and ask to cut losses.

And more than 95% of people follow such bloggers, because those who really make money disdain to be bloggers.

Why am I a blogger? Because I haven't made enough money, and I may not do it after this round

There are more and more people leading orders in the market. How many of them have harvested you? Maybe you are the next harvester. In the future, you will not only be harvested by the market, but also by countless misleading bloggers. If you want to be a blogger, it is recommended that you practice your skills first, otherwise it will be really deceptive. A casual word from you may require others to work for many more years.

Yesterday's CPI blocked the way to a 50bp rate cut. This month, a 25BP rate cut will definitely happen. A 25BP rate cut does not mean that there will definitely be a recession. It just means that the Fed believes that the economy is not cool enough and can be even cooler. They may be right or wrong.

For example, if the rate is cut by 25BP, the unemployment rate will still be 4.2 next month, and the non-farm payrolls will remain relatively stable, then there will be no problem, and the current valuation is almost fast

But I tend to think that a 25BP rate cut will amplify the back-end risks. In other words, my personal opinion is that the economy is already relatively cold now, and if it gets colder, the risks will be amplified. CPI is an index design problem. OER accounts for too large a proportion, which makes CPI easily become a lagging indicator. For example, if house prices start to fall sharply later, CPI may fall back quickly, but by then the economy will have problems. Now, the CPI exceeding expectations does not necessarily mean that inflation is still stubborn, but the proportion of rent in CPI is too large. Today's CPI exceeding expectations does not mean that this month's PCE will also exceed expectations. Maybe CPI exceeds expectations, and PCE continues to fall, then dragging on a slow rate cut will increase the back-end risks.

So if there is a pullback in the interest rate swaps in the next few days, I would consider betting on 5 rate cuts this year or even 7 rate cuts by January next year. The market is now pricing in 4.2 rate cuts this year and 5.8 rate cuts by January next year (which has fallen a bit from the previous few days).

Will the bull market in 24-25 years follow the historical traces? History is always surprisingly similar:

1. In 2016, Bitcoin hit the bottom 547 days before the halving and reached the bull market peak 518 days after the halving.

2. In 2020, Bitcoin hit the bottom 517 days before the halving and reached the bull market peak 549 days after the halving.

3. In 2024, Bitcoin hit the bottom 517 days before the halving and is expected to reach the bull market peak around October 2025.

Historical data shows that the market cycles before and after the halving show amazing similarities, and the time interval between the bear market bottom before the halving and the bull market peak after the halving is roughly the same.

Will the bull market in 24-25 years follow the historical traces? ? ?

Bitcoin↑, those who shorted it can just go to bed~

《Ten Predictions for 25 Years》
1. BTC will rise to 120,000 by the end of the year, ETH 5,000
2. Most altcoins can rise due to release and other factors, but the increase may not be greater than BTC, and they will fall before the bull market.
3. The meme market is likely to be concentrated on the projects that have been listed on Binance, and it will need to be deeply washed before the outbreak - if the wash cannot be continued, there will be no meme market.
4. TON tokens will perform relatively poorly, and ecological mini-games will maintain a downward trend.
5. The stablecoin track may have a new narrative: payment, compliance, growth, etc.
6. Before BTC rises, the currency circle will be collapsed by technology stocks and unexpected negative news
7. There will be a head L2 rebellion against ETH, empowering the main currency instead of ETH.
8. 99% of L2 will die, and users will focus on the top few. There will be no surprises for the high-valuation projects that have not been launched, just like the L2 that will soon die in large numbers.
9. Blockchain + AI, there will still be many new projects, but most of them will not work.
10. The social track will still be garbage, and blockchain + social will not work.
It's just entertainment, I counter, don't refer to it.

The market is going back and forth, those who enter are panicking, and those who don’t enter are also panicking. The market is about to change, it’s settled. ​

Cherish your bullets, it will be gone soon.
The bull market will start after the election.
Before politics, the economy will take a back seat. When politics is stable, the economy will rise.
The October FTT compensation plan,
150,000-200,000 USD of BTC, 1,500 USD of BNB,
Don’t die before dawn. ​

There are a lot of long orders visible to the naked eye piled up below BTC. Should we liquidate them downwards in the past two days? The current market is a round-trip harvesting contract. ​​​

The market has reached this time and this position, and it is extremely cost-effective to sell at a loss and run away. The upward space here is greater than the downward space.

September has been a devilish month since 2017, but it is also a turning point month for the market. October to December are generally better. At present, it has been fluctuating for 6 months, and the cottage has been falling for nearly 5 consecutive months. ​

To put it simply, a 25BP rate cut in September = the Fed believes that the economy is still overheated and does not mind slowing down for another two months, but the data does not show overheating at all, which means that the Fed is simply afraid to be realistic, and it also means that the Fed hopes that the economy will continue to decline

A 50BP rate cut in September = the Fed recognizes that the economy has normalized, and the future goal is to normalize interest rates and stabilize the economy at this growth rate

It is clear at a glance which is better for the market

When will the ETH market come? ? ?

In the past year, everyone has been betting on the super trend of ETH, but the cycle of ETH has not yet arrived; People like me who don’t chase high prices will also bet on the compensatory rise of ETH through the exchange rate between ETH and Bitcoin, which is relatively low-risk; So here comes the question that many people are concerned about: When will the bull market cycle of ETH come? Everyone has been guessing this question for a whole year. The line-drawing school, the data school, and the metaphysical school have all taken turns to participate. Those who have been in the cryptocurrency circle for a long time have thought that Ethereum will definitely rise this time, but the reality is contrary to their wishes. So far, Ethereum still follows Bitcoin and has not gone out of its independent market.

There are four situations to judge when Ethereum can go independent:

1: Bitcoin's ETF funds enter a sluggish stage. Large funds have nothing to speculate and can only turn to Ethereum, because other targets cannot accommodate too much funds for the time being;

2: Ethereum's ETF application is approved, which is equivalent to the approval of Bitcoin's ETF (has happened)

3: Ethereum conducts a wave of super liquidation to clear the leveraged funds that are currently in the large-scale rebound of Ethereum;

4: A phenomenal track suddenly appeared in the Ethereum ecosystem, similar to the DeFi and NFT tracks during the last bull market;

Of these four situations, two of them represent the arrival of Ethereum's independent market.

I think it is a challenging but not impossible goal to achieve the total return of A9 in this round of bull market.

My current return is still fluctuating around A8, and A9 means another 4 times. (Because my funds are not entirely in the currency circle, it needs to be quadrupled)

If based on the Ethereum standard, Ethereum is currently 2300.
If Ethereum reaches the target of 8000 US dollars in this round and achieves 60% excess return on the basis of the currency standard, the goal can be achieved. I don’t think 8000 Ethereum is too high a requirement, after all, Ethereum was close to 5000 US dollars in the last round of bull market.

60% of the currency standard mainly depends on the new issuance of BNB, the yield of Ethereum pledge, whether the DeFi liquidity mining meets expectations and whether the long-term altcoin can get out of the market, etc., and risks must also be considered, such as the project party running away.

Overall, it is not hopeless.

There is nothing that a few big positive lines can't solve. If it doesn't work, then add a few more. Liquidity will return, panic will disappear, and the power of faith will be fully restored. Recession (rate cut cycle) → recovery (economic acceleration) → overheating (inflation) → stagflation (market crash). We have just experienced a rapid bull-bear cycle driven by Bitcoin spot ETFs. It has been a bumpy road, and good things have just begun. Come on BTC!

Three years later, most of the tens of millions of bigwigs who were concerned about the bull market in 2021 have gone to zero and cancelled their accounts!

During the bull market in 2021, I followed more than a dozen V11+ bigwigs with tens of millions of dollars in real trading.

Now three years have passed, and these bigwigs have gone to zero, cancelled their accounts, and a few are still alive but don’t have as much money as they did then. Only one bigwig who has been holding Ethereum spot for a long time still has tens of millions of assets.

As a small leeks, I have also experienced two rounds of bull and bear markets. I have made millions overnight and lost everything overnight. Compared with those who have just entered the circle,

at least I will never mindlessly leverage to rush to copycat dogs. I also know how to survive in a bear market. No matter what, I still believe that this market is an opportunity for ordinary people to cross classes.

I hope that in the bull market next year, everyone can succeed and achieve wealth freedom as soon as possible.

I have always had the habit of investing in Avax and Sol, the old public chains. I am firmly optimistic about them in the long run. ETH is mainly used for gas to make money. The market is very pessimistic now. I just want to say, buy at the bottom, invest regularly, and hold firmly. Don't act like you have never seen the world. You must strengthen your ability to make money off-site. Then invest regularly. The method is stupid, but it works. ​

Sui, Apt, Hmnd are about to turn upward📈📈📈 ​​​