It is meaningless to predict the top and bottom. The top and bottom are just the definition of past trends by traders after the market is over.

I don’t know where the bottom of ETH is, but I know how to control the risk. Just like when Ethereum was at $3,890, I “escaped the top”, which was also the result of risk control.

At present, it can be seen that ETH is in the previous low area of ​​the weekly price pattern, plus the support of EMA200, and the weekly indicator is oversold.

The risk is controllable, so I choose to buy spot.

These things of Brother Yang need to be viewed separately:

Mei Cai Kou Rou is indeed trough meat, which is also the most disgusting point. It is completely inedible. Three Sheep has not apologized yet;

The hairy crab is actually a business war between Simba and Brother Yang. It is a problem with the supplier. In fact, it is essentially Simba's own unilateral hype. There is nothing wrong with the hairy crab itself;

The mooncake is Brother Yang's skirting the law. It is the same routine as selling counterfeit wine. It is also the worst failure. The authentic one is "Hong Kong Maxim Mooncake", and Brother Yang sells "Hong Kong Meicheng Mooncake", which turns out to be produced in Guangzhou;

(However, this Meicheng mooncake was sold in Oriental Selection last year, and it was sold by Dong Yuhui, which fully proves that none of these anchors are good, including Dong Yuhui)

The problem with Moutai should be the supplier. They secretly collected Moutai bottles and sold them mixed with real and fake ones. I don’t know if Brother Yang knew about it or not.

The conclusion is that some of these things that happened to Xiao Yangge are quite unfair, some are not unfair at all, and some are not Xiao Yangge’s own fault, and Simba also has a bit of histrionic personality.

If we talk about banning, I suggest that Xiao Yangge, Dongfang Zhenxuan, and Youhuixingxing are all crazy together.

Happy Mid-Autumn Festival to everyone

Talk about the layout ideas for the future market

At present, the bull market process is more than halfway through, and many partners should be more anxious because they have not made much money. On the contrary, various copycats have different degrees of increase, the worst is about 3 times, the best is about 10 times, and there are even a few hundred times coins. How should we layout at this time! Buying those that have increased by 5-10 times is not cost-effective no matter how you think about it. It should double again, which is 10-20 times. Is it cost-effective to buy at this time! The mentality is definitely not very good, and buying is chasing high. So how should we layout!

Conclusion: Focus on the newly launched coins this year. After the launch, there has been no increase. The coins that have been doing range oscillations have a wave of opportunities after the wash. At least the profit and loss ratio is very cost-effective, which is much better than chasing the coins that have increased by 5-10 times. If you are lucky, you can get about 5 times!

If the market is just a simple rebound, then I won't call for getting on board. The previous rebounds were strong enough, but I didn't get on board. Why did people who know how to get on board this time have already quietly done it? Many people think that I didn't publicly call for getting on board at the first time, and they are angry in the comment area. I have been calling for the general direction since March. If you operate strictly, you will basically lose less than 50% of the principal. The general direction is only shared for free. Do I still need to publicly call for a strong rebound in the short term? I think those who are always waiting for others to feed them for free should quickly quit the circle. Listen to my advice, you will definitely lose less money. In such an environment, it is not easy to make money. It is better to save some money for your family.

In addition, I did delete and block a lot of people. I don't want these people to read my content, share the general direction for free, and constantly slander me. In addition, these people who come to slander are basically those who have suffered serious losses. They all think that others have led them to lose money, and never think that it is caused by their own lack of cognition. With his little cognition, he can't make money even if he finds a god to lead him.

The copycat season will continue

As for views on the future market, I am mostly a bystander and hardly participate in discussions or join any groups, so what I see are basically public information and ideas. At this stage, many people are pessimistic about the future market, believing that there is no new narrative in the market, no external funding, and no innovation. I think these ideas are reasonable, and this is indeed the dilemma we are facing now, but it cannot be used as a standard for market trends. At any point in time, the future market is unknown, and all you can do is develop a long-term strategy.

2024 is the year when most people collapse, and the future is bright

This year, I spent the Mid-Autumn Festival with my family in Hong Kong, China. This time, I spent a relatively long time in Hong Kong, and I visited relatives and friends in Hong Kong more fully, and I had a direct observation of the various aspects of Hong Kong. Although a large amount of foreign capital has left Hong Kong in the past two years, it is still the most important bridge for communication between China and the West, without a doubt.

Through what I have seen and heard in the past few days, Hong Kong is very similar to people in the mainland in one aspect, that is, in 2024, most people are trapped in pessimism and disappointment about the future, and think that they can't see the future, which is very different from last year. Last year, many people still believed that they would get out of the predicament soon, but this year more and more people have recognized the reality.

In terms of global core assets-US stocks and cryptocurrencies, although the bull market has been going on for almost two years, this year AI and web3.0 have experienced brutal mid-term adjustments. Compared with US stocks, cryptocurrencies have adjusted more brutally. In addition to BTC, ETH and various copycats are even more miserable. Never think that the adjustment of the bull market will not kill people. Most people in the currency circle have collapsed. But with the first rate cut of the Federal Reserve approaching, the paradigm shift will come late but not late.

Today is beautiful, and tomorrow will be even better, but most people fall on the eve of tomorrow. I wish you all a happy family reunion, good health, and prosperity during the Mid-Autumn Festival. I hope you and I will be together in the second half of the bull market.

To be honest,
After 2020, the tech venture capital circle in the Bay Area and North America is still developing: After the epidemic, various companies vigorously launched a wave of remote work and SaaS, and the interest rate cut stimulated another wave of fintech. Then 2021 ushered in the defi summer, and the epidemic itself stimulated another wave of biotech;

On the other hand, what the hell is the domestic Internet doing at the same time? One by one, everyone is waiting for Ant Financial, Kuaishou, Didi, and endless money to emerge everywhere, and everyone rushes to buy houses after IPO. At that time, everyone was betting that China's economy could surpass the United States, its income could surpass the United States, and its Internet and manufacturing industries could surpass the United States in all aspects. In the future, Chinese people could also use remote work and SaaS. Jack Ma's speech on the Bund was the first shot of China's fintech. Suzhou Aibo and Yunnan Watson led China's biotech to enter the world. Many people have forgotten that in 2020~2021, before the development of the moderna vaccine, the new coronavirus was unsolvable. Everyone was fantasizing about the end of the United States, the rise of China, and the rise of the East and the decline of the West. At that time, Chinese people in the Bay Area and other places in the United States, people of all levels, industries, and backgrounds, were booking tickets to return home, preparing for the gold rush, interviewing Alibaba and Pinduoduo, whose stock prices hit record highs, planning to join Kuaishou Ant Financial, waiting for the countdown to the IPO, 9-digit financial freedom, and quickly buying a house in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen to celebrate in advance.

At that time, everyone was still thinking that semiconductors were being financed on a large scale like dumplings, and 1,000 Hanxin chips of various GPUs and AI chips appeared overnight. At that time, the domestic venture capital circle was even crazier than Japan. Hundreds of successful people with a net worth of tens of millions or hundreds of millions of yuan emerged overnight around my friends. Pink bubbles drove everyone to participate in a crazy big party.

At that time, we were still talking about institutional confidence. Ant Financial would be spanked if it didn't obey. Long live the iron fist of education and training. Didi rushed to IPO and was criticized by the whole society. How many people died in the United States, Sweden and Japan after taking mRNA vaccines. Not only did China have mRNA, but 5G was also far ahead. Hongmeng OS and Ark Compiler were even more outstanding... All the above bits and pieces are a big story. I told you about it in the past few years. At the same time, I was also warning you that the crisis was coming soon. From real estate to debt, to Sino-US relations, to investment and US dollar financing, to semiconductors, all were hidden crises.

Today's contract map update

Bitcoin long orders: 58060, 57562, 57064, 56566, 56068

Bitcoin short orders: 59056, 59554, 60052, 60550, 61048
Figure 1

Ethereum long orders: 2294, 2272, 2250, 2229, 2207

Ethereum short orders: 2315, 2337, 2359, 2381, 2402
Figure 2

First of all, I am still updating the contract map during the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, because I have to watch Bitcoin every day and look at various data when updating the contract map every day. I study every day so I am familiar with the highs and lows of Bitcoin in the past year. All of them are subtly remembered by updating the contract map every day.

The trend chart I updated on the 15th was 54,000-56,000. Today's contract map overlaps with my position. The fifth level of the contract map is 56,000, and the ninth level is 54,000.

If the trend chart on the 15th is maintained, Bitcoin will fall back to 54,000 in late September, or 56,000 to complete a bottoming action similar to the three-probe, and then it will be bullish in October, and it is expected to rise sharply.

There are rumors in the market, such as a 0.5% interest rate cut on September 19 and recession suspicions. I don't read them. The hype of a recession in early August failed.

The second hype of a recession on September 6 fell to 52,500, and then rose to 60,500 again, indicating that the second hype of a recession failed again. The United States is doing market management. It doesn't want an early economic crisis black swan. It is modifying economic data, pulling up US stocks, etc. to delay the financial war.

It is obvious that the United States has successfully reversed the direction of the market. The S&P 500 index of US stocks is only 0.55% away from a record high, which is a matter of one day.

Moreover, after the interest rate cut on September 19, there will be no economic data after the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision on the 20th, and there will be a news window period.

September 2019 was also a tormenting market, and October rose sharply.

We are currently walking a bit like the tormenting half-year market in 2019.

The interest rate cut is 0.25%. Don't follow the crowd. A stable interest rate cut is what the Federal Reserve wants.

As for yesterday's many people who saw economic recession and black swans, you can continue to wait for the two interest rate cuts in November and December, and the third economic recession at the end of November. Black swan speculation.

This time it is so obvious, and USDT has issued another 1 billion. You can also see in Figure 3 that there is indeed a super big plunge later.

But that's a later story. For now, I just want to prepare for the October autumn market with a callback to 54,000-56,000 and a rebound to 65,000-68,000.

A very awesome teacher of mine told me that this week:
25% rate cut, big drop
50% rate cut, big drop
Rate hike, crash and circuit breaker
His opinion is that rate cut means recession

My personal opinion
Rate cut does not necessarily mean recession.
First of all, we must understand that the Fed raises interest rates to curb inflation and cool down the overheated economy, and cuts interest rates to avoid economic recession, inject funds into the depressed market, and improve the vitality and resilience of the economy.
Due to the Fed's lack of experience in the previous interest rate cut cycles, the rate cut started later than now, and the general public lacked confidence in the Fed's ability to control the economy, resulting in a large economic recession before the rate cut. At the same time, due to people's lack of understanding of the Fed's ability and insufficient confidence in it, the economic recession and people's panic were further exacerbated after the rate cut.
Today's Fed is no longer the Fed of ten or twenty years ago. It has sufficient experience in macroeconomic regulation such as rate hikes and rate cuts, and people have confidence in it. Coupled with the strong performance of non-agricultural, ICP, and other data in recent months, the Fed directly started to cut interest rates and release water this month, which is just right and may not necessarily cause a major economic recession.

Top judgment indicators in the bull market

There are always some rules to follow in bull and bear markets. In a bull market, usually the "big cake" will rise alone first, then the "big cake" and "altcoin" will rise together, and finally the "altcoin" will rise while the "big cake" will stop rising. On the contrary, in a bear market, the "big cake" and "altcoin" will fall together, and the "altcoin" will bottom out several months earlier than the "big cake", which means that the entire industry has reached the bottom, which is an important signal for judging the end of the bear market.

At the end of the bull market, the entire cryptocurrency market often sees a wave of "buying rush". It is manifested as a single-day surge of about 20% for "Bitcoin", while the "altcoin" reaches a rise of 30%-50%. This kind of rising market often attracts the last wave of buyers to rush in, leading to the exhaustion of market buying.

When the Bitcoin bull market comes to an end and enters the consolidation stage, the upside space of the "altcoin" is very limited, usually only about 1 times. Therefore, when you observe that after the entire industry has seen a rush to buy, "Bitcoin" has entered a range of fluctuations, while "altcoins" are still setting new highs, this is often a not very optimistic signal, and investors should reduce their positions appropriately.

Take the example of Bitcoin reaching around $59,000 on February 21, 2021. Since then, the rise of Bitcoin has almost stagnated and entered a consolidation period of up to 3 months. But at the same time, "MKR" continued to rise by more than 100% after a brief adjustment. This is a typical case of "big cakes do not follow the rise, and altcoins do not follow the fall."

The top of the bull market is usually a range, with a 2-3 month oscillation time. The reason why the bull market eventually ended is that the funds of the entire market can no longer support continued increases, as shown by the influx of some newcomers who lack investment experience, such as retired aunts.

Therefore, after the entire cryptocurrency market has experienced a round of rush to buy, investors must pay close attention to the abnormal performance of Bitcoin and altcoins. Once Bitcoin is observed to enter a consolidation range, while altcoins are still setting new highs, it is likely a signal that the bull market is about to end.

How does altcoin perform in a complete bull market? First, it doubles 3-5 times, then drops 50-80%, returns to the starting point of the first wave, then rises again and starts the main rising wave, doubles 5-20 times, reaches the top of the bull market, and then the bull market ends, with a drop of about 95%! Then a cycle is completed. ​

Everyone knows that I have always supported Sui in the move series. At present, Sui's ecosystem is not bad, TVL is also rising steadily, and the user experience is also very good. However, a large number of high-quality products in this ecosystem have not yet issued coins, such as Scallop, Navi, Kriya, etc. Sui surpassed the market value of apt for the first time today and became the number one move. Thinking about the huge difference in market value at the beginning, it can be seen that there is still some gap between the two move candidates in the later development and operation.

This bull market:

The first time BTC was 60000u eth3800u

The second time BTC was 60000u eth3100u

The third time BTC was 60000u eth2800u

The fourth time BTC was 60000u eth2400u

Do you still hold Eth? ? ? ​​​

The probability of a 50BP rate cut this week has surpassed the probability of a 25BP rate cut, which means that the market has finally understood Powell's idea, and that Powell is much more rational than most people in the market. Last week, I said that I wanted the interest rate swap to fall back a bit to bet on an unexpected rate cut, but NICK called it back as soon as the market closed. After that, CPI exceeded expectations and I wanted to fall a little more, but NICK called it back again... It shows that my idea is right, or I am too greedy.

Then the amount of this rate cut is still a secondary issue. The core issue is the future rate cut path. No matter how much the rate cut is this time, it is a good thing if the rate cut is getting slower and slower (indicating that the economy is stable), and it is a bad thing if the rate cut is getting faster and faster (indicating that the rate cut is forced to accelerate). The reason why I think 50BP is a positive is that the probability of accelerating the rate cut this year has decreased with this 50BP rate cut, so it is a positive, but it does not mean that there will be no recession. The core is still the employment market data.

Finally, because the rate cut increases the probability of a soft landing, it becomes a combination of rate cut + soft landing. Do you remember what I said two months ago? Good for small and medium-sized stocks! But one thing to remember here is that the market is just rekindling expectations of a soft landing, but it is only an expectation, not a necessity. So whether it can continue to rise depends on the subsequent data. If the data is still average after a wave of rise, then it will still be volatile (people walking their dogs)