In this round of the bull market, the old coins are being pumped first because too many people are bottom-fishing in the new altcoins. The main players will definitely go for those old altcoins that aren't as popular. When you can't stand seeing your purchased old altcoins keep dropping while the old altcoins keep rising, that's when they will start to pump the new ones. There are too many new altcoins that are just memes. I estimate that Zhao Changpeng's statement also means that there won't be any consideration for pumping memes in the short term; the platform is the big player, while the retail investors are the enemies of the platform.

The peak time of this round of the Bitcoin bull market may be in August 2025

After an in-depth review of the two rounds of Bitcoin bull and bear cycles, I discovered a pattern: each round of bull market from the lowest point to the highest point takes approximately 884 days, followed by an adjustment phase and a long bear market.

Specifically:

First cycle: From the bottom in January 2015 to the peak of the bull market in December 2017, it lasted about 884 days.

Second cycle: Starting from the bottom in January 2019 to the peak of the bull market in November 2021, it was also about 884 days.

In this round of bull market, Bitcoin fell to around 15,000 in October 2022, marking the bottom of the bear market. Based on this time frame, the peak of this bull market may occur around August 2025.

Additionally, I found that the interval between every two bull market bottoms is about 1290 days. If this pattern continues, the next bear market bottom may appear around June 2026.

The bull market has arrived, and many cryptocurrencies are in the initial stage of rising. The first point is to choose coins. For beginners, doing systematic research like Buffett is certainly unrealistic. If the foundation is really weak, then choose coins that have been newly launched after the bull market, have been online for more than six months, show a clear bottom tendency, and have gradually increasing trading volume. Similar to the image below, the trading volume has significantly increased recently, indicating a certain possibility of institutional accumulation.

Currently, institutional investors are rushing into the market, driving up the market value of Bitcoin. Retail investors are rarely involved with Bitcoin. Most are buying altcoins, which only gain market confidence from Bitcoin.

Weak support for altcoins: 1. Bitcoin breaks new highs, various news from social media brings some newcomers into the market. 2. Existing users increase their holdings. Both have a major prerequisite: Bitcoin needs to rise high enough and maintain that level for a period of time.

Specifically, it should exceed the previous high of 74,000 and remain there for three months.

In fact, during the altcoin bull market, many people also lose money. Over a longer time frame, more than 90% lose money, and the reason is very simple... more on that next time.

Newbie Entry

Priority to accumulate BTC and ETH

Wait until BTC's market cap ratio reaches 60% of the cryptocurrency market, then you can start accumulating altcoins. This 60% I mentioned is excluding stablecoins.

Although we are in a bear market now, the bull market is really not far off.

Look at how the market cap of stablecoins has been slowly rising recently. The price of USDT has remained high.

It has inverted against the US dollar.

This indicates a demand-driven attack.

More and more people are entering the market.

So, in this kind of market, what coins should you choose?

First, you need to set a goal; don't think about making 100 times your investment.

Aiming for a 3x return to start is enough.

Throughout the bull market, you can say that if you know how to switch tracks, making 10 times 3x is very possible; making 3 times 3x is really too easy.

The bull market generally has three waves: the startup phase, the explosive phase, and the super explosive phase.

In the startup phase, many projects can rise 10% in a day. In the explosive phase, they can rise 50% in a day. In the super explosive phase, it can double in a day.

What you should do now is to calculate the valuation and then buy, buy, buy.

I cannot make specific coin recommendations.

But you can follow the trends; the next wave of what is definitely going to be hyped up, in my opinion, includes several directions:

One is DeFi

One is blockchain gaming

One is AI

One is RWA

Of course, there are also the latest meme coins.

See how many of these you can grasp.

In this sector, how to choose?

You must select those with high traffic; the project must use this coin, and there must be consumption of this coin.

Ideally, it should be like the previous FIL, where the higher the coin price, the higher the mining rewards, and the more people buy it.

Remember, there must be consumption, any form of consumption is acceptable.

I have a classmate who saw me making money by trading cryptocurrencies and asked me for the download link of the exchange. When he first entered the crypto circle, the first coin he bought was LUNA. The next day, it dropped by 99%. He thought it would rebound by 10% or 20% and then bought more with 10x leverage. As a result, it dropped by 99% again. He thought again: 100U has dropped to 0.1U, and it can’t drop much more! If it goes back up, I will make a lot of money, so I will continue to buy more! As a result, it dropped by 99% again, and then he went bankrupt. At that time, he wanted to borrow money to buy more, but unfortunately he didn’t get it. Now LUNA has dropped from 100U to 0.00006U. Since then, he has been telling people that I am a fraud...

Sometimes when converted to U consumption
It feels like prices are very cheap
Breakfast: 5U
Taxi: 10U
Watching a movie: 15U
Eating Western food: 100U
Buying clothes: 200U
Ahhh: 500U ​

Recently, many newcomers in the circle have asked a lot of strange questions. One fan said, I have about 500u, the capital is small, and I've heard that to earn more, you need to leverage 50-100 times. A teacher told him that if you buy a meme coin, with 500u at 50x leverage, and follow the trend, if you can double it, you can earn close to 25000u. In a bull market, there are many opportunities to double your money; you just need to do this a few times in a row, and earning A8 A9 is not a problem. What do you think???

I've been observing this coin USDT for a long time
It has been hovering around the bottom near 1 dollar

Today the market dropped but there was strong support from the whales
It feels quite good
It might explode recently, so it could be a good time to take a position.

Normal Pullback in a Bull Market
Many people lack basic trading knowledge
Crypto / Especially Bitcoin's long positions have surged sharply
The funding rate for long positions has reached a historical high of 66% annualized
The market has collapsed and pulled back
It can be understood as the bow being drawn too tight
The arrow is on the string, and it has to be shot
Long and short positions are being corrected
No one's analysis can say Bitcoin won't collapse
This pullback, is it the end of the short-term trend? I don't know.
What I want to say is, before the drop,
Many people saw the possibility of a decline
And many spoke up after seeing it
But really clearing positions, shorting,
Even profiting from both long and short,
I don't know many who did.
Stay calm, if your style is to hold onto positions, don't fantasize about swings
Only very skilled traders can achieve swing trading and profiting from both sides; most just show off tiny trades and speak post facto
The reason many people lose money
Is believing in various chaotic surface messages
Instead of thinking about the substance behind price fluctuations
Contract trading is the most challenging job in the world
If you don't have those skills, just hold spot
It has no impact on the spot
And provides some opportunities to average down
In a few days, it will rise again
The bull market is still on
Many people have developed a bear market mentality, and when they see a drop, they feel like it's a bottomless pit. They can't hold on to any pullback.
A bull market is actually a healthy process of rising, pulling back, rising, and pulling back.
By the time we realize it, it's too late.
Just like in August and September this year, I kept saying that altcoins look trash right now, but actually, in a bull market, there is gold everywhere—it's the same principle.
I have finished writing, keep it up.

I basically don't pay much attention to the price points when buying altcoins now, nor do I engage in high-leverage contracts. A 3% or even 5% deviation is acceptable for me, so the current price points mean nothing to me. Would eating that extra 3% make me wealthy? Would eating 3% less make me not wealthy? Neither, so why make things difficult for myself? Just go with the flow!

Regarding the issue of having a small principal, I want to say a few more words.

Stories of sudden wealth are just illusions; it's unrealistic to think one can leap across multiple social strata at once. This is why you can hear some financially free individuals say they achieved freedom after experiencing two or three bull markets.

Because social classes need to be crossed step by step, encountering various pitfalls, and enhancing one's understanding and perspective all require time and experience.

If you only have five thousand, 99.99% of people cannot earn fifty million through contracts.

Having a small principal is a situation you face; if you want to earn as much as those with larger principals immediately, your level of risk will expand infinitely.

If everyone could become wealthy with a very small principal and achieve financial freedom directly, then who would lose money? What’s the point of studying or starting a business?

Shortcuts belong to a very small number of people, and they may have paid a price you cannot afford; only they know the hardships involved.

So, don’t think that just because your principal is small you can open contracts to magnify your earnings; I clearly state that you will not make big money.

If your principal is five thousand, then in this bull market, work hard to earn twenty thousand to fifty thousand first? Take it step by step? Because for you, earning twenty thousand from five thousand would already be a significant amount.

Moreover, whether you can turn five thousand into ten or twenty thousand is still uncertain.

Be content, restrain greed, and avoid contracts.

One of the little tricks for making money in the crypto world: Arbitrage using funding rates

Detailed explanation of crypto-based arbitrage funding

I will try to explain it in simple terms.

Crypto-based means you need to have this cryptocurrency to operate.

For example, to do crypto-based trading with BTC, you need to hold BTC first. You make an agreement with your counterpart using your BTC.

Step 1: Purchase the spot asset you want to trade based on crypto. For example, BTC.

Step 2: Find the trading pair.

Example: BTC/USDT contract, this is a crypto-based contract, and you will find that you need BTC rather than USDT to open a position.

BTC/USDT contract is a USDT-based contract, and you need USDT to open a position.

Step 3: Set the leverage to a position size of 1. Open a short position.

Then just wait to receive the corresponding funding rate at 0, 8, and 16 o'clock every day.

Since you are trading based on crypto, the funding paid to you by the counterparty is also in the corresponding cryptocurrency.

As for the obtained cryptocurrency, there are generally two ways to handle it:

1. Do nothing and wait for it to increase in value, as we are currently in a bull market phase, the obtained cryptocurrency will generally rise, allowing you to earn more interest.

2. Directly open a 1x short position, which effectively compounds the interest.

Which option to choose depends on personal preference.

My most conservative estimate for this round of bull market

Bitcoin to 150,000, Ethereum to 8,000, Sol to 350, Doge to 1.2, XRP to 6, BNB to 1,500, Sui to 10.

You can decide for yourself for the rest.

Investing in this market, especially in a bull market, everyone focuses on sentiment rather than value.

For example, during this bull market, everyone is looking forward to breaking the $100,000 mark, and the recent fluctuations are actually aimed at better hitting this target. If you're already fully invested, there's no need to be overly anxious; if you want to make big money, you need to have a long-term commitment.

Here are a few key points to know:
① You might be stuck for a few months, but if you miss out, it's a cycle that happens once every four years.
② Adjustments during a bull market can be significant, making you feel like it's a bear market, but a V-shaped reversal can happen at any time.
③ What might drop for two months can recover in just two weeks.
④ This round could be more intense than anticipated.

Whether it's investment or speculation, the essence of making a profit in the financial market is to buy low and sell high.

At low levels, there is a common phenomenon where very few people dare to get in; the lower the price, the more fearful people become, afraid of being stuck.

Alternatively, they wait for the trend to emerge before jumping in, and when it really starts to rise, they want to wait for a pullback to buy again, until it reaches a very high position, at which point they reluctantly choose to buy. However, the charm of compound interest is that buying at low levels has a significant advantage; at high levels, one can only take over or risk running alongside at high risk.

Even if the price has already squeezed out a lot of bubbles, when the true value is revealed, you panic; conversely, when the bubbles emerge, you squeeze to the limit. This is human nature.

I repeatedly emphasize that during market panic, one must restrain their inner fear to welcome the dawn, rather than hesitate.

Many times, it is not that there are no opportunities; it is that most people cannot seize them.

Even such a simple principle, how can the retail investors not understand? Please remember that classic saying: knowing and doing is the hardest gap for humanity to bridge. What you need to do is to unify knowledge and action. If you fail to do so, how can you possess the huge price difference brought by the cognitive gap!

If you are in cash, at least at this position, you should hold 50% of your position; the other 50% can be invested according to a certain percentage of decline.

I want to emphasize one more point: when true value is revealed, being in cash is actually the most dangerous.

The next script
"This time is different"
"This is just a normal correction"
"Hold steady, we can win"
"No, why can't it hold steady? Wait a little longer, it's going to reverse"
"Haha, it finally reversed"
"Fuck, why isn't it a V-shaped reversal"
"Fuck, it keeps falling, there's no rebound at all"
"Fuck, it's still falling, just go in and die"
"Fuck, the economy is in recession, the big banks in the United States are going bankrupt, and they're all plummeting before and after the rate cut"
"As long as there's green mountains, there's no need to worry about running out of firewood, clear the warehouse and stop loss"
"It's rising again? It must be a scam"
"Haha, I said it was a scam, and it trapped a bunch of idiots again"
"Fuck, why is it still rising"
"Follow the position and do a wave, it feels good haha"
"Fuck, it's still rising, you must buy when it's corrected"
"Haha, it feels a little good again"
"Fuck, I'm anxious, my group members have made millions of U"
"I can't fucking watch my group members drive a Land Rover"
"Fuck, Why does he call back as soon as I hit the barge?

There is a saying in the market that there are no more altcoin seasons. I disagree. It's just like in 2021 when a bunch of new investors were fooled by the hype of the updated altcoins, claiming that the crypto market was about to enter an eternal bull market—it's utter nonsense.

Right now, Bitcoin is still rising, and many people are waiting for outside investors to come in and take over. That won't happen; it hasn't risen enough. It needs to rise to the point where outside investors start questioning their lives before they get excited and rush in to take our positions.

At this moment, altcoins are starting to gain momentum, allowing new outside investors to enter and take over. What you should be doing now is not worrying about whether your altcoins will rise, but rather, copying the successful strategies, laying out your investments according to the market trends, and working hard while the bull market hasn't gone wild yet.

Why? Because altcoins also need to attract investors; how could they possibly not rise? Their growth rates cannot be lower than those of Bitcoin and Ethereum. It’s unacceptable in terms of reputation, substance, and profitability.

Choose your coins wisely, make a good layout, no more talk, just hold on tightly!!!

While the pancake continues to consolidate, ETH will continue to improve the ETH/BTC exchange rate until it breaks through 0.04, then the price of ETH will exceed 4000, reaching the range of 4200~4500. Still, the time left for you to increase your ETH holdings really won't be long.