LIVE大圣Crypto
@dashengbigwin
2017年大牛进币圈，币圈连续创业者，带团队做过交易所、Defi项目、数字货币支付项目等。
深度理解行业，善于宏观和趋势分析，辅以K线技术分析，稳中求胜。
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Do you remember my tip on June 14? At that time, I had a vague feeling that Mentougou would have to pay! Sure enough!
LIVE大圣Crypto
--
Bearish
Today I have been reminding you to keep a low position, no more than 2 layers of positions!
Bitcoin has been very weak in the past two days. The CPI data has been bullish for a while, and then it quickly closed. It is weaker than the US stock market. I feel that there is a potential negative impact!
Is Mentougou going to pay compensation? Or is there a case that has seized Bitcoin and is going to be sold?
Bitcoin has been very weak in the past two days. The CPI data has been bullish for a while, and then it quickly closed. It is weaker than the US stock market. I feel that there is a potential negative impact!
Is Mentougou going to pay compensation? Or is there a case that has seized Bitcoin and is going to be sold?
See original
History will not repeat itself, but it may be surprisingly similar!
I don’t know how many people have experienced the bull market from 20 to 21. That round of bull market:
● The market started to pull in mid-October 20, due to a large amount of capital inflow from the United States;
● At the end of April 21, the weekly line of Bitcoin had a dead cross, and it pulled for half a year;
● After the dead cross, it experienced a 519 plunge, and Bitcoin adjusted for more than 2 months, and started to pull for the second time around July 20;
● Bitcoin pulled until November 23 and began to plummet. With the expectation of US interest rate hikes, it completely entered a bear market
And this round of Bitcoin bull market from 23 to 24 has very striking similarities:
● The market started to pull in mid-October 23, due to a large amount of capital inflow from the United States;
● At the end of April 24, the weekly line of Bitcoin had a dead cross, and it pulled for half a year;
● After the dead cross, it experienced multiple single-day plunges, and Bitcoin adjusted for more than 2 months, and then...
If you believe there will be a second chance to surge higher, then you will have a good chance to lay out the bottom chips!
#BTC走势预测 #牛市下半场
I don’t know how many people have experienced the bull market from 20 to 21. That round of bull market:
● The market started to pull in mid-October 20, due to a large amount of capital inflow from the United States;
● At the end of April 21, the weekly line of Bitcoin had a dead cross, and it pulled for half a year;
● After the dead cross, it experienced a 519 plunge, and Bitcoin adjusted for more than 2 months, and started to pull for the second time around July 20;
● Bitcoin pulled until November 23 and began to plummet. With the expectation of US interest rate hikes, it completely entered a bear market
And this round of Bitcoin bull market from 23 to 24 has very striking similarities:
● The market started to pull in mid-October 23, due to a large amount of capital inflow from the United States;
● At the end of April 24, the weekly line of Bitcoin had a dead cross, and it pulled for half a year;
● After the dead cross, it experienced multiple single-day plunges, and Bitcoin adjusted for more than 2 months, and then...
If you believe there will be a second chance to surge higher, then you will have a good chance to lay out the bottom chips!
#BTC走势预测 #牛市下半场
See original
🌟This week's major events:
Tuesday, July 2 *
💼Fed Chairman Powell, ECB President Lagarde and Brazilian Central Bank President Neto spoke at the Central Bank Forum held by the European Central Bank.
💼The Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes of the June monetary policy meeting
Wednesday, July 3 **
💼US ADP employment in June
💼US initial jobless claims for the week
Thursday, July 4 **
💼Fed released the minutes of the monetary policy meeting
💼Britain held a general election
💼The European Central Bank released the minutes of the June monetary policy meeting
💼The US SEC may approve the Ethereum spot ETF as early as today
Friday, July 5 ***
💼US unemployment rate in June
💼US non-farm payrolls in June
Data week is here, what do you think?
Tuesday, July 2 *
💼Fed Chairman Powell, ECB President Lagarde and Brazilian Central Bank President Neto spoke at the Central Bank Forum held by the European Central Bank.
💼The Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes of the June monetary policy meeting
Wednesday, July 3 **
💼US ADP employment in June
💼US initial jobless claims for the week
Thursday, July 4 **
💼Fed released the minutes of the monetary policy meeting
💼Britain held a general election
💼The European Central Bank released the minutes of the June monetary policy meeting
💼The US SEC may approve the Ethereum spot ETF as early as today
Friday, July 5 ***
💼US unemployment rate in June
💼US non-farm payrolls in June
Data week is here, what do you think?
See original
Attention! Attention! Attention!
The PCE price index data for May in the United States will be released at 8:30 tonight. PCE is the most concerned inflation data of the Federal Reserve, without a doubt, and will directly affect the pace of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts.
PCE is the abbreviation of Personal Consumption Expenditures, which is an important economic indicator to measure the spending of American consumers on goods and services. The PCE index, especially the core PCE index, is regarded by the Federal Reserve as one of the key indicators for measuring inflation.
Composition of the PCE index
The PCE index covers a wide range of goods and services, including durable goods (such as automobiles and appliances), non-durable goods (such as food and clothing), and services (such as health care and financial services).
From the specific composition ratio in the figure below, we can see that
● Housing 19.4%
● Medical 16.5%
● Gasoline and other energy 10.7%
● Financial services and insurance 8.4%
These four are the most important in the PCE price index, accounting for 55%!
In May, the U.S. second-hand housing contract volume index and existing home contract sales index both fell more than expected; U.S. oil prices also fell slightly, lower than in April; second-hand car insurance contracts also fell. Overall, PCE will decline in May.
The forecast value is 2.6, which is indeed 0.2 lower than 2.8 in April.
From the perspective of the impact on risky assets, the probability of PCE rising is very low, and it is likely to meet or be lower than the forecast value, which will bring certain benefits.
Wait for the PCE data tonight!
Creation is not easy, welcome to like and forward!
#PCE物价指数 #PCE数据 #pce
The PCE price index data for May in the United States will be released at 8:30 tonight. PCE is the most concerned inflation data of the Federal Reserve, without a doubt, and will directly affect the pace of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts.
PCE is the abbreviation of Personal Consumption Expenditures, which is an important economic indicator to measure the spending of American consumers on goods and services. The PCE index, especially the core PCE index, is regarded by the Federal Reserve as one of the key indicators for measuring inflation.
Composition of the PCE index
The PCE index covers a wide range of goods and services, including durable goods (such as automobiles and appliances), non-durable goods (such as food and clothing), and services (such as health care and financial services).
From the specific composition ratio in the figure below, we can see that
● Housing 19.4%
● Medical 16.5%
● Gasoline and other energy 10.7%
● Financial services and insurance 8.4%
These four are the most important in the PCE price index, accounting for 55%!
In May, the U.S. second-hand housing contract volume index and existing home contract sales index both fell more than expected; U.S. oil prices also fell slightly, lower than in April; second-hand car insurance contracts also fell. Overall, PCE will decline in May.
The forecast value is 2.6, which is indeed 0.2 lower than 2.8 in April.
From the perspective of the impact on risky assets, the probability of PCE rising is very low, and it is likely to meet or be lower than the forecast value, which will bring certain benefits.
Wait for the PCE data tonight!
Creation is not easy, welcome to like and forward!
#PCE物价指数 #PCE数据 #pce
See original
Finally, the panic index has reached 30 again. How did you say that? Others are afraid of me?
There is a high probability that it will fluctuate around 60,000, and the cottage industry has also got a rare chance to breathe. Referring to the trend after the plunge in May 2021, the daily level is oversold, and then it fluctuates up and down to build a bottom.
So the strategy is very simple. For the part of yesterday's bottom-picking, leave when there is a strong pressure level. If the big cake is explored again, be brave to increase your position!
#BTC #恐慌指数
There is a high probability that it will fluctuate around 60,000, and the cottage industry has also got a rare chance to breathe. Referring to the trend after the plunge in May 2021, the daily level is oversold, and then it fluctuates up and down to build a bottom.
So the strategy is very simple. For the part of yesterday's bottom-picking, leave when there is a strong pressure level. If the big cake is explored again, be brave to increase your position!
#BTC #恐慌指数
See original
Big news! Big news! Big news!
There have been a lot of negative news in the past two days. If there are any big negative news, let's come. . .
1. BtcTurk, one of Turkey’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges, was attacked on June 22, causing deposits and withdrawals to be suspended.
Hot wallets for 10 cryptocurrencies were affected, but cold wallets remain safe.
Additionally, $54 million in AVAX was sold today from an address linked to an exchange in Turkey.
2. In June, Bitcoin miners sold more than 30,000 BTC (about $2 billion), setting a record this year:
⚫Mining stocks fall to lowest level in 14 years
⚫Recent halving led to lower profits, triggering sell-off
3. Mentougou Mr. Gox trustee announced that it will start paying out BTC and BCH in early July.
There have been a lot of negative news in the past two days. If there are any big negative news, let's come. . .
1. BtcTurk, one of Turkey’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges, was attacked on June 22, causing deposits and withdrawals to be suspended.
Hot wallets for 10 cryptocurrencies were affected, but cold wallets remain safe.
Additionally, $54 million in AVAX was sold today from an address linked to an exchange in Turkey.
2. In June, Bitcoin miners sold more than 30,000 BTC (about $2 billion), setting a record this year:
⚫Mining stocks fall to lowest level in 14 years
⚫Recent halving led to lower profits, triggering sell-off
3. Mentougou Mr. Gox trustee announced that it will start paying out BTC and BCH in early July.
See original
On May 28, I analyzed the impact of the Mentougou incident!!!
I have analyzed the compensation plan, amount and impact of Mentougou!
If the compensation really starts in early July, it will definitely be bad for the market in the short term. Tens of thousands of BTC will need to be smashed for a while, but it is also a rare opportunity to pick up chips at a low price!
Welcome to share your views!
#门头沟事件 #门头沟
I have analyzed the compensation plan, amount and impact of Mentougou!
If the compensation really starts in early July, it will definitely be bad for the market in the short term. Tens of thousands of BTC will need to be smashed for a while, but it is also a rare opportunity to pick up chips at a low price!
Welcome to share your views!
#门头沟事件 #门头沟
LIVE大圣Crypto
--
MtGox dumped 140,000 bitcoins today? !
Let me analyze the impact for you. "Mentougou" is the Chinese translation of MT.Gox, a Bitcoin trading platform located in Tokyo, Japan. Before July 2011, 80% of the world's Bitcoin transactions took place on the "Mentougou" trading platform. Even during the bear market from 2013 to 2014, the Bitcoin trading volume of "Mentougou" accounted for 70% of the world's total, making it the world's largest Bitcoin trading platform at the time. In February 2014, "Mentougou" announced on its website that it would stop trading and subsequently filed for bankruptcy. The number of Bitcoins stolen from "Mentougou" reached 850,000 (of which 740,000 were from users).
Although MT.Gox has closed down, there are still a large number of BTC, BCH, etc. in its wallet, which must be compensated to creditors. Due to the slow legal process in Japan, it has been claimed that compensation will be paid in the past few years, but it has been postponed in the end. The current regulations require that the compensation be paid before October this year. In 2023, almost all creditors have registered their claims, and a total of 140,000 BTC, 140,000 BCH and about 6.9 billion yen (about US$500 million) must be compensated. MT.Gox has a total of more than 130,000 BTC and BCH, which have not been moved in the past few years, but today it was monitored that 100,000 BTC were transferred out, and they are still being transferred out.
The cash part has been paid out in April, which is not much. The total amount of MT.Gox's own funds and the coins sold before should be enough. This has no impact on the market, and some of the funds may even enter the currency circle again.
The compensation of coins has not yet begun. Today's operation of transferring BTC may be to compensate the corresponding creditors in the next step. The largest creditors include Bitcoinica, M GIF, BTC-E, which has been shut down by the FBI, Coinlab, etc. Most of these institutions have gone bankrupt, and some of their claims have been sold to other funds in advance. With the sharp rise in the price of coins in the past year, these claims have made considerable profits. This means that only a small part of the coins received needs to be sold to recover the cost. In addition, we are still in a volatile bull market, and it is estimated that only some BTC will be sold. For the market, there will be some selling pressure in the short term, but for the medium and long term, these tens of thousands of BTC cannot stop the trend.
Every time Mentougou panicked and fell before, it was an opportunity to buy at the bottom, and this time is likely to be no exception.
#门头沟事件 #btc #MtGox钱包动态
Let me analyze the impact for you. "Mentougou" is the Chinese translation of MT.Gox, a Bitcoin trading platform located in Tokyo, Japan. Before July 2011, 80% of the world's Bitcoin transactions took place on the "Mentougou" trading platform. Even during the bear market from 2013 to 2014, the Bitcoin trading volume of "Mentougou" accounted for 70% of the world's total, making it the world's largest Bitcoin trading platform at the time. In February 2014, "Mentougou" announced on its website that it would stop trading and subsequently filed for bankruptcy. The number of Bitcoins stolen from "Mentougou" reached 850,000 (of which 740,000 were from users).
Although MT.Gox has closed down, there are still a large number of BTC, BCH, etc. in its wallet, which must be compensated to creditors. Due to the slow legal process in Japan, it has been claimed that compensation will be paid in the past few years, but it has been postponed in the end. The current regulations require that the compensation be paid before October this year. In 2023, almost all creditors have registered their claims, and a total of 140,000 BTC, 140,000 BCH and about 6.9 billion yen (about US$500 million) must be compensated. MT.Gox has a total of more than 130,000 BTC and BCH, which have not been moved in the past few years, but today it was monitored that 100,000 BTC were transferred out, and they are still being transferred out.
The cash part has been paid out in April, which is not much. The total amount of MT.Gox's own funds and the coins sold before should be enough. This has no impact on the market, and some of the funds may even enter the currency circle again.
The compensation of coins has not yet begun. Today's operation of transferring BTC may be to compensate the corresponding creditors in the next step. The largest creditors include Bitcoinica, M GIF, BTC-E, which has been shut down by the FBI, Coinlab, etc. Most of these institutions have gone bankrupt, and some of their claims have been sold to other funds in advance. With the sharp rise in the price of coins in the past year, these claims have made considerable profits. This means that only a small part of the coins received needs to be sold to recover the cost. In addition, we are still in a volatile bull market, and it is estimated that only some BTC will be sold. For the market, there will be some selling pressure in the short term, but for the medium and long term, these tens of thousands of BTC cannot stop the trend.
Every time Mentougou panicked and fell before, it was an opportunity to buy at the bottom, and this time is likely to be no exception.
#门头沟事件 #btc #MtGox钱包动态
See original
The altcoin bear market has already arrived, and it started to turn bearish in April. The only survivor is Bitcoin, and Ethereum is relatively weak.
The current hope is on Bitcoin. It is not a bear market unless Bitcoin effectively falls below 60,000. I have said it long ago during the altcoin season, don’t have illusions!
I have been asking everyone to keep a very low position in the past two weeks, and I feel that the opportunity is coming!
#山寨季何时到来？ #不要幻想山寨季
The current hope is on Bitcoin. It is not a bear market unless Bitcoin effectively falls below 60,000. I have said it long ago during the altcoin season, don’t have illusions!
I have been asking everyone to keep a very low position in the past two weeks, and I feel that the opportunity is coming!
#山寨季何时到来？ #不要幻想山寨季
LIVE大圣Crypto
--
When you are still fantasizing about the alt season, please look at a set of data:
According to the report of Token Unlocks, from 2024 to 2030, about $155 billion worth of tokens will be unlocked. BTC ETF has a net inflow of $15 billion in the past few months.
So, after 1 or 2 years, 99% of the alts will be cut in half again.
Remember an iron rule: alts only chase hot spots in the short term, and make money to exchange for big cakes or U, don't have a pattern!
According to the report of Token Unlocks, from 2024 to 2030, about $155 billion worth of tokens will be unlocked. BTC ETF has a net inflow of $15 billion in the past few months.
So, after 1 or 2 years, 99% of the alts will be cut in half again.
Remember an iron rule: alts only chase hot spots in the short term, and make money to exchange for big cakes or U, don't have a pattern!
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